prediction

JPMorgan does not expect a bull run for Bitcoin over the medium term based on the BTC-to-gold volatility ratio.

As Bitcoin (BTC) price failed to hold its breath above the $35,000 yesterday, JPMorgan expects an overall bearish movement below the critical price level based on the BTC-to-gold volatility ratio. 

In a note sent to investors on Wednesday, JPMorgan detailed its reasoning to see the fair value of Bitcoin between $23,000–$35,000 over the medium term. The banking giant previously pictured a $140,000 roadmap if the biggest cryptocurrency matches gold’s allocation and volatility profile.

But that’s off the table for the foreseeable future, according to JPMorgan’s note, which predicts that “full convergence or equalization of volatilities or allocations [between gold and bitcoin] is unlikely in the foreseeable future.“

JPMorgan also said that China’s crackdown on mining operations would have a positive impact on Bitcoin over the medium term, “as it accelerates a shift away from China's high share in bitcoin's hash rate, reducing concentration.”

Not many institutions are joining MicroStrategy's hunt to buy the dip. “More than a month after the May 19 crypto crash, bitcoin funds continue to bleed, even as inflows into physical gold ETFs stopped,” JPMorgan said, adding:

“This suggests that institutional investors, who tend to invest via regulated vehicles such as publicly listed bitcoin funds or CME bitcoin futures, still exhibit little appetite to buy the bitcoin dip.”

Related: Bitcoin price dips below $34K as day of Grayscale’s BTC unlocking draws near

According to JPMorgan, another major factor preventing a possible bull run is the end of a six-month lock-up period for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust fund, which saw a nearly $4 billion inflow in December and January. As Cointelegraph reported, July 19 will see the most significant single unlocking day, with 16,000 BTC worth around $627 million released.

Following the April all-time high, Bitcoin is hovering between $30,000–$40,000 for the last couple of weeks. After diving below $29,000 on June 22, BTC price is moving around $34,000, according to Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView data.