Price analysis

Bitcoin bears have pulled the price below the support of the range, starting a potential downtrend toward $49,000. 

Bitcoin (BTC) has been in a sideways price action pattern for several months, but the bears are trying to seize control. The resolution of the large $55,724 to $73,777 range in favor of the sellers could start a downtrend.

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, has projected Bitcoin to fall below $50,000. A similar view was offered by veteran trader Peter Brandt, who has a target of $46,000 for Bitcoin.

Crypto market data daily view. Source: Coin360

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Bitcoin bulls are holding on to the $55,500 support, but an increase in futures open interest and a death cross on the BTC chart have traders worried that further downside is in store.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been stuck in a sideways price action phase for several months, but that has not stopped institutional investors from buying. According to K33 Research senior analyst Vetle Lunde, more than 262 new firms invested in the United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) during the second quarter of 2024.

It is encouraging to note that the institutional investors have largely held on to their positions or increased them. Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said in a post on X that 44% of asset managers boosted their Bitcoin ETF positions while 22% held steady. Only 13% exited their positions, and the remaining 21% reduced positions. Hougan called this as “a pretty good result, on par with other ETFs.”

While the long-term remains bullish, analysts are turning bearish in the near term. Cryptocurrency analysis platform Coinglass cautioned in a post on X that Bitcoin’s rising open interest suggests there is “room to fall.” Additionally, analysts are closely watching the death cross as the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) has dipped below the 200-day SMA.

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Bitcoin is finding it difficult to rise above the overhead moving averages, indicating that the bears are trying to flip the level into resistance.

Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to maintain above the psychological level of $60,000, indicating that the bears are active at higher levels. However, analysts do not seem to be worried. Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards said in a post on X that Bitcoin looks “promising,” but its trend lags behind gold by three months; hence, it needs some time before resuming its up move.

Bitcoin is only in the second phase of its bull cycle, according to Bybit lead tech writer Nathan Thompson. If Bitcoin follows the trough-to-peak ratios of its previous cycles, it could extend its up move till the third quarter of 2025, according to a report by Bybit and BlockScholes, shared with Cointelegraph.

Apart from the Bitcoin rally, several traders are eagerly waiting for the altseason to begin. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said in a research note that Bitcoin would have to rise above $70,000 and Ether (ETH) above $4,000 for the altseason to begin.

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