Price prediction

PlanB’s floor model misses its target in a historic first as fresh bear pressure mounts for Bitcoin price action.

Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to hit the November closing price demanded by one of its best-known models — but its creator is not giving up.

In a Twitter post on Dec. 1, PlanB said that he would give his floor model one more month to prove itself.

BTC floor model on probation

BTC/USD should have rounded out November in a “worst-case scenario” of $98,000, but a combination of factors conspired to produce a much lower monthly close.

At close to $57,000, the pair firmly missed its target, this translating to the first such failure of PlanB’s floor model in Bitcoin’s history.

“Floor model first miss (after nailing Aug,Sep,Oct),” he wrote.

“No model is perfect, but this is a big miss and the first in 10y! Outlier/black swan? I will give Floor model 1 more month.”

$98K❌

Floor model first miss (after nailing Aug,Sep,Oct). No model is perfect, but this is a big miss and the first in 10y! Outlier/black swan? I will give Floor model 1 more month.

S2F model unaffected and on track to $100K.
Watch out for trolls confusing Floor and S2F model! https://t.co/tj6SSwSzKR

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) December 1, 2021

Most recently, the floor model correctly predicted the monthly closes for August, September and October, adding to hopes that six figures could enter in December.

As more traders and analysts accept the fact that the 2021 bull market may take longer than anticipated to reach its peak, PlanB reiterated that his other BTC price forecasting models remain intact.

Among them are the popular stock-to-flow-based tools, these calling for at least $100,000 as an average price between now and 2024. The expectation is still that Bitcoin will attract a six-figure price tag before the end of this year.

Unfortunate bull timing?

November’s close coincided with fresh downside pressure on Bitcoin.

Related: Bitcoin correction weakest of 2021 so far as hopes of Santa Claus rally rise

Panic over coronavirus combined with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell admitting that inflation will not be “transitory” in nature.

Sentiment likewise took a hit, dropping from “neutral” to “fear” as per the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.

PlanB’s floor model, meanwhile, has its work cut out to remain a valid price guide — in just four weeks, it predicts a BTC/USD price of $135,000. 

Bitcoin price action exactly conforms to PlanB's predictions for a second time, and if history repeats itself, BTC/USD should be at $63,000 by the end of the month.

Bitcoin (BTC) was keen to retain $44,000 on Oct. 1 as the monthly close sparked a late show of strength.

BTC monthly close matches PlanB prediction

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it first returned to the $44,000 mark Thursday, then test lower levels before heading even higher.

While still not tackling resistance at $45,000 and higher, Bitcoin did not disappoint with its end-of-month performance, this almost exactly matching predictions from stock-to-flow model creator PlanB for a second month running.

Aug>47k✅
Sep>43k✅
Next targets: Oct>63k, Nov>98k, Dec>135k pic.twitter.com/C45nfQkQSC

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 1, 2021

With $63,000 now planned for October, expectations were high for Bitcoin to make up for lost ground going into Q4.

"September was bad. October is great. November is great. December is great," Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized, telling Twitter followers to "buy the f*cking dip."

Van de Poppe highlighted historical performance across various months each year, something which Cointelegraph previously noted all but consigned September to be a "boring" 30 days.

Others, however, were more cautious. In its latest market update, crypto trading firm QCP Capital said that it would remain cautious in its approach to the market as a whole.

"Overall, we struggle to find any directional conviction amidst the macro and market crosswinds. Our strategy going into Q4 is to remain fairly neutral and nimble," executives summarized.

Macro factors at play were China's reiteration of its crypto crackdown and two United States issues: legislation and the potential approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

On Friday, a vote on the government's infrastructure bill, originally slated to happen Monday, was again delayed after a shutdown later this month was averted in a separate vote.

Ethereum returns to $3,000

Altcoins meanwhile saw another 24 hours of modest to flat moves, again headed by Binance Coin (BNB) on 6% daily gains.

Related: Bitcoin ‘FOMO rally’ long overdue that could see BTC price top $200K — Bobby Lee

All of the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap were in the green at the time of writing, however, marking a refreshing contrast to recent action.

Ether (ETH), the largest altcoin, traded above $3,000 on the back of 3% returns.