The weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index suggests that risky assets such as Bitcoin and the S&P 500 Index may remain in favor of the buyers.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose 2.24% last week, its third consecutive weekly gain. In comparison, Bitcoin (BTC) managed a minuscule gain of 0.8%, indicating consolidation below $38,000. The prospects for risky assets remain bullish as the U.S. Dollar Index has started to turn down.
Cryptocurrency investors have not parted with their Bitcoin holdings, even after the 125% rally in 2023, indicating their long-term bullish view. Reflexivity co-founder William Clemente posted a chart sourced from Glassnode to X (formerly Twitter), which showed that 70% of Bitcoin in circulation has not been sold or transferred in the past year.
Investors have also increased exposure to global cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) in 2023, according to a report by the digital asset platform Fineqia, which was seen by Cointelegraph. Fineqia reported that crypto ETP assets under management ballooned by 91% from Jan. 1 to Oct. 31, 2023.
If Bitcoin fails to break above its resistance, will it start a deeper correction? Will altcoins also turn lower, or could they buck the trend? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
S&P 500 Index price analysis
The S&P 500 Index surged above the downtrend line on Nov. 14, signaling an end of the corrective phase.
The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover, and the relative strength index (RSI) is in the overbought territory, indicating that bulls are in command. There is a minor resistance in the 4,512–4,541 zone, which may result in a pullback.
On the downside, the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) (4,395) is likely to act as a strong support. If the price rebounds off this level, it will suggest that the trend has turned positive. That will enhance the prospects of a rally to 4,650.
Contrarily, if the 20-day EMA gives way, the index may drop to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) (4,340). Sellers will have to yank the price below this support to indicate strength.
U.S. Dollar Index price analysis
The U.S. Dollar Index turned down from the 20-day EMA (105) on Nov. 14 and plunged below the descending channel pattern.
That started a correction, which has reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 103.46. The 20-day EMA has started to turn down, and the RSI is near the oversold zone, indicating that bears are in command.
If the 103.46 level cracks, the decline may extend to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 102.55. Buyers are likely to defend the zone between 103.46 and 102.55 with vigor. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA.
Bitcoin price analysis
After finding support at the 20-day EMA ($35,925), Bitcoin has been gradually moving up toward the vital resistance at $38,000. The bears have guarded this level twice in the past; hence, they will try to do the same once again.
If the price turns down sharply from the overhead resistance and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it may trigger the stops of several short-term traders. That may start a correction in the BTC/USDT pair, which could reach $34,000 and subsequently $32,400.
Contrarily, if bulls pierce the $38,000 resistance, it will indicate the start of the next leg of the uptrend. The pair may travel to $40,000, which is again likely to behave as a significant resistance. The rising moving averages and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside.
Ether price analysis
Ether (ETH) has been forming a large ascending triangle pattern, which will complete on a break and close above $2,200. This bullish setup has a target objective of $3,400.
The bulls are buying the dips to the 20-day EMA ($1,949), indicating that lower levels continue to attract buyers. If the price sustains above the psychological level of $2,000, the ETH/USDT pair could attempt a rally to $2,090 and then to $2,200.
Instead, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will signal that the bears are attempting a comeback in the near term. The pair may then drop to the 50-day SMA ($1,779).
BNB price analysis
The bulls have successfully held BNB (BNB) above the 20-day EMA ($242) for the past few days, indicating that the sentiment remains positive and traders are buying the dips.
The bulls will next try to push the price above $258 and retest the formidable resistance at $265. A break and close above this level will complete a rounding bottom pattern. The BNB/USDT pair may then ascend to $305, as there is no major resistance level in between.
Alternatively, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are losing their grip. The pair could drop to the immediate support at $235. This level is likely to act as solid support, but if it breaks down, the correction could stretch to the 50-day SMA ($227).
XRP price analysis
XRP (XRP) fell below the 20-day EMA ($0.62) on Nov. 16, but the bears have failed to pull the price to the next support at $0.56. This suggests that lower levels are attracting buyers.
The XRP/USDT pair is stuck between $0.74 and $0.56. If buyers push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that a relief rally has begun. The pair may then climb to $0.67 and later to $0.74. The price action inside the range is likely to remain random and volatile.
A break above $0.74 or a collapse below $0.56 could start a trending move. If the price sustains above $0.74, the pair may jump to $0.85. On the other hand, a slump below $0.56 could sink the pair to $0.46.
Solana price analysis
Buyers are struggling to sustain Solana’s SOL (SOL) above $59, indicating that the bears remain active at higher levels.
A minor positive in favor of the bulls is that they have not ceded much ground to the bears. This suggests that the buyers are not dumping their positions in a hurry, as they anticipate the uptrend to continue. On the upside, a break and close above $68.20 could clear the path for a rally to $77.
This bullish view will be invalidated in the near term if the price turns down and skids below the 20-day EMA ($51.39). The SOL/USDT pair could then fall to the crucial support at $48.
Related: ARK, 21Shares update spot Bitcoin ETF application as next SEC deadline looms
Cardano price analysis
Cardano’s ADA (ADA) has been witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the $0.38 level for the past several days.
The upsloping moving averages and the RSI in the overbought zone indicate that the bulls are at an advantage. If the price stays above the $0.38–$0.40 resistance zone, the ADA/USDT pair could rally to $0.46.
If bulls want to prevent the upside, they will have to quickly drag the price back below the 20-day EMA ($0.35). If that happens, several short-term bulls may book profits, and the pair could slide to the 50-day SMA ($0.30).
Dogecoin price analysis
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been gradually moving higher in the past few days. The bulls drove the price above $0.08 on Nov. 17 but could not sustain the breakout.
The price turned down on Nov. 18 and dipped to $0.08. A positive sign is that the bulls are trying to defend the $0.08 level. If they manage to do that, it will signal that $0.08 has flipped into support. That will improve the prospects of the resumption of the uptrend. The DOGE/USDT pair could then reach $0.10.
The RSI is showing signs of forming a bearish divergence, indicating that the momentum may be slowing down. Sellers will have to pull and sustain the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.07) to seize control.
Chainlink price analysis
Sellers tried to sink Chainlink’s LINK (LINK) below the 20-day EMA ($13.64) on Nov. 17 and 18, but the long tail on the candlestick indicates solid buying at lower levels.
There is a minor resistance at $15.40, but if this level is scaled, the LINK/USDT pair could retest the local high at $16.60. Sellers are again expected to mount a vigorous defense at this level, but if the bulls do not give up much ground, it will increase the likelihood of a break above $16.60.
Contrarily, if the price turns down from $15.40, it will suggest that bears are selling at higher levels. The trend will shift in favor of the bears if they can sink and sustain the price below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $12.83.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
