JPMorgan’s head of technical strategy is warning that the stock market may see further moves to the downside in the short to midterm. In a new CNBC interview, Jason Hunter says that JPMorgan is currently bearish on the stock market. According to Hunter, the “tide is turning” for the S&P 500 after the stock market […]
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Former Goldman Sachs executive Raoul Pal is predicting that the stock market will soon form a bottom after witnessing corrective moves for three consecutive weeks. In a new blog post, the macro expert says that the S&P 500 (SPX) will likely enter oversold territory as soon as this week. He predicts institutional buyers will move […]
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After weeks of low volatility, Bitcoin bulls are trying to make a comeback, but the rise in the U.S. Dollar Index may limit the upside recovery.
Bitcoin has been stuck inside a tight range in August. Glassnode lead on-chain analyst Checkmate highlighted that the spread between the upper and lower Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin has shrunk to 2.9%, its third-tightest ever.
Typically, periods of low volatility are followed by a range expansion. The longer the time spent inside a range, the stronger the eventual breakout from it. The only problem is that it is difficult to time the breakout with certainty. Therefore, traders should be watchful. Otherwise, they may miss out on the opportunity to ride the next trending move.
One reason that risk assets may be weighed down is the strength of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which has risen for four consecutive weeks.
In contrast, United States equities markets entered a corrective phase in the past few days. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) and the Nasdaq Composite have both pulled back for the past two weeks, indicating profit-booking by short-term traders.
What are the important support and resistance levels to watch for in Bitcoin (BTC) and altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
The S&P 500 Index dipped below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 4,497 on Aug. 3, and since then, the bears thwarted several attempts by the bulls to push the price back above this level.
The price bounced off the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of 4,443 on Aug. 14, indicating that the bulls are guarding this level with all their might. Buyers will try to keep up the momentum and shove the price back above the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, the index could start its journey to 4,607 and subsequently to 4,650.
If bears want to seize control, they will have to protect the 20-day EMA and tug the price below the 50-day SMA. That could start a deeper correction to 4,300 and later to 4,200.
The U.S. Dollar Index held support at the 20-day EMA ($102) on Aug. 4 and again on Aug. 10, indicating a change in sentiment from selling on rallies to buying on dips.
The index has reached the downtrend line, which is likely to act as a formidable resistance. If the price turns down from the downtrend line but rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the trend remains bullish. That will enhance the prospects of a rally above the downtrend line. The index could then soar toward the overhead resistance at 106.
This positive view will invalidate in the near term if the price tumbles below the 20-day EMA. There is minor support at 101.74, but if this level gives way, the index could drop to 100.82.
Bitcoin slipped below the 20-day EMA ($29,458) on Aug. 13, but the bears could not build upon this advantage and sink the price to the critical support at $28,585. This suggests a lack of aggressive selling at lower levels.
The flattish 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint indicate a balance between buyers and sellers. This suggests that the BTC/USDT pair could continue to consolidate inside the range between $28,585 and $30,350 for a while longer.
The next trending move is likely to begin after the price escapes this range. If the price turns down and plunges below the $28,585 support, it could start a descent to $26,000. Conversely, a rally above $30,350 could enhance the prospects of a rally to the overhead resistance zone between $31,500 and $32,400.
Ether (ETH) has been clinging to the 20-day EMA ($1,853) for the past few days, indicating that the bulls have maintained their buying pressure but the bears have held their ground.
The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating that the selling pressure could be reducing. If bulls thrust the price above the moving averages, the ETH/USDT pair may rally to $1,930 and then to $2,000.
If bears want to maintain their control, they will have to defend the moving averages. If the price turns down from the 50-day SMA ($1,877), the pair could skid to the strong support at $1,816. This is an important level for the bulls to watch out for because a break below it may sink the pair to $1,700.
BNB (BNB) has been trading below the moving averages for the past three days, but the bears have not been able to sink the price to the support line of the symmetrical triangle.
If the price does not break above or below the triangle within the next few days, then it will invalidate the pattern. The flattish moving averages and the RSI just below the midpoint signal that the dull price action may continue for some more time.
A break and close above the triangle will be the first sign that the uncertainty has resolved in favor of the bulls. The BNB/USDT pair could then rally to the overhead resistance at $265.
On the other hand, a break and close below the triangle could sink the pair to the crucial support at $220.
XRP (XRP) has been swinging between the moving averages for the past few days, indicating buying near the 50-day SMA ($0.62) and selling at the 20-day EMA ($0.65).
Although buyers have held the 50-day SMA, the downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the negative territory indicate that bears have the edge. A shallow bounce off the current level will increase the prospects of a drop below the 50-day SMA. If that happens, the XRP/USDT pair may slump to $0.56.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price climbs above the 20-day EMA, it will indicate solid buying at lower levels. The pair may then move up to $0.74.
Cardano (ADA) has been correcting inside a descending channel pattern for the past few days. This suggests a lack of aggressive buying by the bulls.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the resistance line of the channel. That could open the doors for a possible rally to $0.34. If this level is scaled, the ADA/USDT pair may retest the July 14 intraday high at $0.38.
The bears are likely to have other plans. They will try to sell the rallies to the resistance line of the channel. If the price turns down from this level, it will signal that the pair may continue to descend inside the channel. The important support to watch on the downside is $0.26.
Related: Bitcoin teases new volatility as BTC price taps 4-day high near $29.6K
Dogecoin’s (DOGE) recovery was rejected at the downtrend line on Aug. 13, indicating that the bears are fiercely defending this level.
The price has reached the support line of the ascending channel, which is an important level to keep an eye on. If the price plummets below the support line, the DOGE/USDT pair could tumble to $0.07.
Contrarily, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above the downtrend line, it will signal that the bulls remain buyers at lower levels. The pair could first rise to $0.08 and later to the resistance line of the channel at $0.09.
Solana (SOL) is trading inside the range between $22.30 on the downside and $26 on the upside. A minor advantage in favor of the bulls is that the price is trading above the 20-day EMA ($24.09).
If the current bounce sustains, the bulls will try to drive the SOL/USDT pair above the overhead resistance at $26. If they succeed, the pair could pick up momentum and climb to $29.12 and later to $32.13.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from $26, it will suggest that the pair may extend its stay inside the range for a few more days. The bears will have to yank the price below $22.30 to come out on top.
The bulls are finding it difficult to push Polygon (MATIC) above the 20-day EMA ($0.69), but a positive sign is that they have not ceded ground to the bears.
The moving averages are flattening out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. This balance could tilt in favor of the bulls if they propel the price above the 50-day SMA ($0.70). The MATIC/USDT pair could then attempt a rally to $0.80.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the 50-day SMA, it will signal that bears are active at higher levels. That may keep the pair stuck inside a range for a few days. The bears will have to sink and sustain the price below the support near $0.65 to gain the upper hand. The pair could then slide to $0.60.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin's record low volatility is also a sign that the next price breakout will be volatile, but everyone is guessing which direction price will take and how it will impact altcoins.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) continued its march toward its all-time high with a 3% gain in July. Signs of receding inflationary pressures and expectations of an end to the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle are the factors that boosted risk-on sentiment.
However, this bullish mood did not benefit Bitcoin (BTC) as it largely remained range-bound in July and is on track to end the month with a loss of more than 3%. The biggest question troubling traders is when will Bitcoin’s range break and in which direction.
Typically, the longer the time spent inside the range, the greater the force needed for the breakout. Once the price escapes the range, the next trending move is likely to be strong. The only problem is that it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout with certainty. Hence, it is better to wait for the price to sustain above or below the range before taking large bets.
With Bitcoin trading inside a range, could the action shift to altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
The S&P 500 Index has been in an uptrend. The bears tried to pull the price back below the breakout level of 4,513 on July 27 but the bulls held their ground. This suggests that buyers are trying to flip the 4,513 level into support.
The upsloping moving averages indicate that bulls are in control but the negative divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) suggests that the bullish momentum could be slowing down.
The up-move is likely to face strong selling at 4,650. If the price turns down from this level but rebounds off the 20-day exponential moving average (4,509), it will suggest that the uptrend remains intact.
The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-day EMA. That could open the gates for a potential drop to the 50-day simple moving average (4,371).
The bears tried to yank the U.S. dollar index (DXY) below the 100.82 support on July 27 but the bulls fiercely defended the level. That started strong buying, which pushed the price above the 20-day EMA (101.46).
The bulls will next try to extend the recovery to the 50-day SMA (102.51) and later to the downtrend line. This remains the key level to keep an eye on because a break above it could indicate that the bears are losing their grip. The index may then rise to the stiff overhead resistance at 106.
On the downside, the bears will have to sink and sustain the price below 100.82 to establish their supremacy. The index could then slide to 99.57. A break below this support could signal the resumption of the downtrend.
Bitcoin dropped below the 50-day SMA ($29,442) on July 30, indicating that the bears are trying to take control. However, the long tail on the day’s candlestick shows buying near the horizontal support at $28,861.
The downsloping 20-day EMA ($29,624) and the RSI below 44 suggest that bears have a slight edge. Any attempt to start a relief rally could face selling at the 20-day EMA. If the price turns down from this resistance and breaks below $28,861, it could start a decline to $27,500 and then to $26,000.
If bulls want to prevent the fall, they will have to thrust the price above the 20-day EMA. The BTC/USDT pair could first rise to $29,500 and then to the $31,500 to $32,400 resistance zone.
Ether (ETH) has been trading between the moving averages for the past few days, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears about the next directional move.
Generally, tight ranges are followed by a range breakout that starts the next leg of the trending move. If the price plunges below the 50-day SMA ($1,859), it will indicate that bears have overpowered the bulls. That may start a downward move toward $1,700.
Instead, if the price turns up and closes above the 20-day EMA, it will signal the start of a short-term up-move. The ETH/USDT pair could first rise to $1,929 and thereafter attempt a rally to the psychological resistance at $2,000.
XRP (XRP) has been consolidating inside a large range between $0.67 and $0.85. Although the bulls successfully defended the support, they have failed to start a strong recovery.
The gradually rising 20-day EMA ($0.69) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that the bulls have a slight edge. If buyers overcome the barrier at $0.75, the XRP/USDT pair may start a relief rally to the resistance at $0.85.
Contrarily, if the price turns down and dives below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that every minor rise is being sold into. The pair could then retest the support at $0.69. If this support crumbles, the pair may extend the decline to the breakout level of $0.56.
BNB (BNB) continues to trade inside the symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating indecision among the bulls and the bears.
The flattish moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. If the price sustains above the moving averages, the BNB/USDT pair could rise to the resistance line. A break and close above the triangle could propel the price to $265.
On the other hand, if the price breaks below the moving averages, it will suggest that bears are trying to pull the pair to the support line. If this support cracks, the pair may plunge to $220.
Cardano (ADA) rose above the 20-day EMA ($0.31) on July 28 but the recovery lacks momentum. This suggests that demand dries up at higher levels.
If the price skids back below the 20-day EMA, the ADA/USDT pair could consolidate inside a tight range between $0.30 and $0.32 for some time. Buyers will have to kick the price above $0.32 to start an up-move to $0.34 and subsequently to $0.38.
Contrarily, if the price continues lower and plummets below the 50-day SMA ($0.29), it may trap several aggressive bulls. That may start a rush to the exit, resulting in a deeper correction to $0.28 and then to $0.26.
Related: Bitcoin volume hits lowest since early 2021 amid fear $25K may return
Dogecoin (DOGE) is facing selling just above the $0.08 level but a minor positive is that the bulls have not ceded ground to the bears. This suggests that the buyers expect another leg higher.
The upsloping 20-day EMA ($0.07) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that the bulls have the upper hand. If the price turns up from the 20-day EMA, the bulls will again attempt to drive the DOGE/USDT pair above the overhead resistance. If they succeed, the pair may start its northward march to $0.10 and eventually to $0.11.
Alternatively, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are losing their grip. The pair may then slide to the breakout level at $0.07.
Solana (SOL) is trying to find support at the 20-day EMA ($24.14) but the bulls are struggling to sustain the rebound. This suggests that the bears have not given up.
If the price cracks and maintains below the 20-day EMA, the SOL/USDT pair may slide to $22.30. This remains the key short-term support to watch out for. If the price rebounds off this level, the pair may consolidate between $22.30 and $27.12 for some time. The flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint also suggest a range formation in the near term.
A break and close above $27.12 will signal that bulls are back in the driver’s seat. The pair may then rally to $32.13. On the downside, a break below $22.30 could pull the pair to the 50-day SMA ($20.71).
Buyers pushed Litecoin (LTC) above the 20-day EMA ($92) on July 29 but they could not clear the hurdle at $97.
The flattish 20-day EMA and the RSI just below the midpoint indicate the possibility of a range formation. Buyers purchased the dip on July 30 as seen from the long tail on the candlestick but they failed to build upon the strength on July 31. This suggests that bears are aggressively defending the $97 level.
If the price tumbles below the 50-day SMA ($91), the LTC/USDT pair could descend to $87. A strong bounce off this level may keep the pair range-bound for a few days. Buyers will have to propel the price above $97 to open the doors for a rally to $106.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin is at the pivotal 50-day SMA support, and a drop below this level could result in accelerated selling of BTC and altcoins.
Bitcoin plunged to $29,000 on July 24, signaling that bears are trying to seize control. It looks like the failure to hold on to the higher levels may have tempted short-term bulls to book profits and aggressive bears to initiate short positions.
Although the near term looks bearish, long-term investors remain unfazed, and they continue to hold on to their positions. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-term holder supply made a new high of 14.52 million Bitcoin, “equivalent to 75% of the circulating supply.”
While the cryptocurrency markets have turned soft in the near term, the United States equities markets remain on strong footing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen for 10 straight days, its longest streak since 2017. However, things could change this week with a slew of key earnings reports and the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on July 26. The latter could also impact the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which is on a recovery path.
Could lower levels attract buyers in Bitcoin and select altcoins? Will the strength in the U.S. equities markets limit the downside in the cryptocurrency markets? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) turned down from 4,578 on July 19, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not given up much ground. This suggests that the buyers are not dumping their positions as they anticipate the uptrend to continue.
The upsloping 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 4,471 and the relative strength index (RSI) in the overbought territory suggest that bulls are in command. If the price turns up from 4,513 or the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that lower levels continue to attract buyers.
That will enhance the prospects of a break above 4,578. The index could then rally to 4,650 and eventually to 4,800.
This positive view will be negated if the price dives below the 20-day EMA. That could open the doors for a fall to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of 4,336.
The U.S. Dollar Index turned up sharply on July 18 and rose back above the breakdown level of 100.82 on July 20. This suggests that the breakdown below 100.82 may have been a bear trap.
The price has reached the 20-day EMA, which is an important level to watch out for. If the price turns down sharply from it and plunges below 99.57, the downtrend may resume. The index may then crash to 97.50.
Instead, if the price breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are back in the game. The index may then climb to the 50-day SMA (102.66) and subsequently to the downtrend line.
Bitcoin bulls again pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($29,957) on July 23, but the long wick on the candlestick shows strong selling at higher levels.
The selling intensified on July 24, and the price plunged below the strong support at $29,500 that had held for the past several days. The BTC/USDT pair has descended to the 50-day SMA ($29,021), which is a crucial level to keep an eye on.
If the price turns up from the current level and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the break may have been a bear trap. The pair may then rally to $31,000.
On the contrary, if the price continues lower and plunges below the 50-day SMA, it will suggest that the bulls have given up. The pair may then slump to $27,500 and later to $26,000.
Ether (ETH) bounced off the 50-day SMA ($1,852) on July 23, and the bulls tried to propel the price above the 20-day EMA ($1,888), but the bears held their ground.
The bears are trying to pull and sustain the price below the 50-day SMA. If they manage to do that, the ETH/USDT pair could start a deeper correction toward $1,700. Such a fall will indicate that the pair may remain stuck inside the $1,626 to $2,000 range for a while longer. The price action inside the range is likely to be random and volatile.
If the price rebounds off the 50-day SMA and rises above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest solid buying at lower levels. That may open the gates for a possible rally to $2,000. The next trending move is likely to begin on a break above $2,000 or below $1,626.
After failing to sustain above $0.83 on July 19 and 20, XRP (XRP) has turned down toward the 20-day EMA ($0.67).
If bulls want to keep the uptrend intact, they will have to protect the 20-day EMA with vigor. If the price rebounds off this level with strength, the XRP/USDT pair may form a range in the near term.
The boundaries of the range could be $0.66 on the downside and $0.86 on the upside. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the overhead resistance of $0.86.
Conversely, if the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the bulls are rushing to the exit. That could attract further selling, and the pair may collapse to the breakout level of $0.56.
The bulls failed to propel BNB (BNB) above the 20-day EMA ($243) in the past few days. That attracted heavy selling by the bears, who are trying to sink the price below the support of the symmetrical triangle.
If they succeed, it will suggest that the uncertainty between the bulls and the bears has resolved in favor of the sellers.
The BNB/USDT pair could then drop to the critical support at $220. This level is likely to attract aggressive buying by the bulls. If the price rebounds off $220 with strength, it will suggest that the pair may remain range bound for a while.
Another possibility is that the price bounces off the support line of the triangle. In that case, the pair may extend its stay inside the triangle for a few more days. Buyers will have to shove the price above the triangle to signal a comeback.
Cardano (ADA) has been witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the 20-day EMA ($0.31).
The flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the buyers or the sellers. This uncertainty will tilt in favor of the bears if the price slumps below $0.30. That could sink the price to the uptrend line.
Contrarily, if buyers drive the price above $0.33, it will suggest that bulls are back in the game. The ADA/USDT pair could then rise to the July 14 intraday high of $0.38. The bears are likely to defend this level with vigor.
Related: Bitcoin whale exchange inflow share hits 1-year high — over 40%
The bears tried to pull Dogecoin (DOGE) back below the breakout level of $0.07 on July 22, but the bulls held their ground.
The 20-day EMA ($0.07) has started to turn up and the RSI is in the positive zone, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the upside. There is a minor resistance at $0.08, where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense.
If buyers do not allow the price to skid below the 20-day EMA, the likelihood of a rally to $0.10 increases. This positive view will invalidate in the near term if the price declines and sustains below $0.07.
Solana (SOL) continues to witness profit booking by short-term traders. That pulled the price below the 20-day EMA ($23.73) on July 24.
The bulls will try to arrest the downward move at $22.30. If the price rebounds off this support, the bulls will again try to clear the overhead hurdle at $27.12. If they can pull it off, the SOL/USDT pair may retest the July 14 high of $32.13.
On the other hand, if the price dives below $22.30, it will suggest that the break above $27.12 may have been a bull trap. The pair could then tumble to the 50-day SMA ($19.80). Such a move will suggest that the pair may continue to swing inside the large range between $14 and $27.12 for some more time.
Polygon (MATIC) has been trading near the 20-day EMA ($0.74) for the past few days. This shows that the bulls are protecting the level, but they have failed to start a recovery. This indicates that the bears are maintaining their pressure.
The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI has descended below 50, indicating a balance between supply and demand. This equilibrium could tilt in favor of the bears if the price plummets below the 50-day SMA. The MATIC/USDT pair could then slide to $0.60.
Contrarily, if the price turns up from the current level and rises above $0.80, it will signal solid buying at lower levels. The pair may then retest the local high at $0.89. A break above this level could indicate the resumption of the uptrend.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin bulls have failed to step in, increasing the chance for a retest of the $29,500 support.
Bitcoin remains stuck inside a narrow range, making it difficult to predict the direction of the next possible breakout. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which generally moves in inverse correlation to Bitcoin (BTC), dropped below 100, but that has failed to propel Bitcoin higher. This suggests that Bitcoin is charting its own course in the near term.
Therefore, the earnings season from big companies this week may sway equities markets in the United States but may not have the same effect on Bitcoin. It is becoming increasingly difficult to pinpoint the event or the news flow that will cause Bitcoin’s price to escape the range.
The uncertainty about Bitcoin’s next directional move has not deterred the whales. CryptoQuant’s contributing analyst SignalQuant highlighted that one on-chain indicator, the unspent transaction outputs, has been rising in 2023, similar to the increase seen in 2019. If the indicator continues to rise, it will suggest that Bitcoin has room to run and the low made in late 2022 was a long-term bottom.
Could the DXY stage a recovery? Will that limit the upside in Bitcoin and the major altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is in a strong uptrend. The price has reached resistance at 4,513, which may act as a minor hurdle. But if bulls do not give up much ground from the current levels, it will suggest that traders expect the rally to continue.
The developing negative divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) has been negated, indicating that the bulls remain in command. If buyers thrust and sustain the price above 4,513, the index could resume its uptrend and reach 4,650. This level may again act as a strong barrier.
On the way down, the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 4,420 is the important support level to watch out for. If this support gives way, it will signal that the bulls may be booking profits. That may sink the price to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of 4,293.
The U.S. Dollar Index broke below the moving averages on July 7 and continued its downward spiral. The bears yanked the price below the vital support at 100.82 on July 12, completing a bearish descending triangle pattern.
The sharp fall of the past few days has sent the RSI into the oversold territory, indicating that a minor recovery is possible. If the price turns up from the current level, the index could retest the breakdown level of 100.82.
This remains the key level to watch for. If the price turns down from this level, it will suggest that the bears have flipped the previous support into resistance. That could start a downtrend, which could reach 97 and then collapse toward the pattern target of 93.64.
If bulls want to prevent the decline, they will have to quickly push and maintain the price above 100.82.
Bitcoin bulls have defended the 20-day EMA ($30,173) for the past three days, but a negative sign is that they have failed to start a strong bounce off it. This suggests a lack of aggressive demand at current levels.
The 20-day EMA has started to flatten out and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. That could keep the pair inside the tight range of $29,500 and $31,500 for a while longer.
Buyers will have to shove the price above $32,400 to signal the start of the next leg of the uptrend. The BTC/USDT pair could then surge toward $40,000. Instead, if the price tumbles below $29,500, the pair may skid to the 50-day SMA ($28,671).
Ether (ETH) is trying to maintain above the 20-day EMA ($1,897), suggesting that the lower levels are attracting buyers.
The bulls will try to push the price to the psychological resistance of $2,000. This remains the key level to keep an eye on because a break and close above it will clear the path for a possible rally to the $2,141 to $2,200 zone.
The crucial support to watch on the downside is the 50-day SMA ($1,853). If this level cracks, it will suggest that the ETH/USDT pair may remain inside the large range between $1,626 and $2,000 for some more time.
XRP (XRP) is finding support in the zone between the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.69 and the 61.8% retracement level of $0.64.
The bulls will try to resume the up move, but they may face formidable resistance at $0.83 and again at $0.93. If the price turns down from this zone, the XRP/USDT pair may remain stuck inside a range for a few days.
Another possibility is that the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $0.64. If that happens, it will signal an urgency among the bulls to exit their positions. That could sink the pair to the 20-day EMA ($0.58).
BNB (BNB) turned down from the 50-day SMA ($253) and reentered the symmetrical triangle pattern on July 14. This shows that the bears are fiercely defending the overhead resistance at $265.
The 20-day EMA ($244) has flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. The BNB/USDT pair could oscillate inside the triangle for a few more days.
Buyers will have to propel and maintain the price above the triangle to gain the upper hand. The momentum could pick up after the bulls kick the price above the overhead resistance at $265. Alternatively, a break below the triangle will signal that the bears are back in the driver’s seat. The pair could resume its downtrend below $220.
Solana (SOL) formed an inside-day candlestick pattern on July 15 and 16, which suggests short-term uncertainty about the next directional move.
Generally, the tightening of the range is followed by a sharp breakout. If buyers thrust the price above $29.12, the SOL/USDT pair could jump to $32.13. A rally above this level could open the doors for a further rise to $38.
Contrarily, if the price turns down and plunges below $26, it will suggest that the advantage has tilted in favor of the bears. The pair could first slide to $24 and thereafter to the 20-day EMA ($22.53).
Related: Bitcoin 'full breakout' not here yet as BTC price spends month at $30K
Cardano’s (ADA) pullback has reached near the breakout level of $0.30. Usually, such a deep correction delays the start of the next leg of the up move.
However, the moving averages are about to complete a bullish crossover and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that bulls have a slight edge. If the price turns up from the current level, buyers will again try to drive the ADA/USDT pair to the overhead resistance at $0.38.
It is unlikely to be an easy path higher for the bulls. The bears will try to stall the recovery at $0.34 and again at $0.36. On the downside, a break and close below $0.30 could tilt the advantage in favor of the bears.
Dogecoin (DOGE) is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the overhead resistance at $0.07.
The 20-day EMA ($0.07) has started to turn up and the RSI is in the positive territory. This suggests that the bulls have a slight edge. The bulls will try to propel the price to $0.08, where the bears may again mount a strong defense.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the moving averages, it will suggest that bears continue to sell on rallies. That could keep the DOGE/USDT pair stuck inside the $0.06 to $0.07 range for some more time.
Usually, the price turns down and retests the breakout from a pattern, and Polygon (MATIC) is doing just that. The price could drop to $0.72.
If the price rebounds off $0.72 with strength, it will suggest buying at lower levels. The bulls will then try to push the price above the overhead resistance of $0.90. If they do that, the MATIC/USDT pair could start the next leg of the up move. The first stop could be the psychological resistance of $1 and subsequently $1.20.
This positive view will be invalidated if the price continues lower and plummets below the uptrend line. The pair could then slump to $0.60.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
The weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index bodes well for Bitcoin and altcoins in the near term.
Bitcoin has been struggling to rise and sustain above the $31,000 level for the past few days, but Standard Chartered has painted a bullish picture for this year and the next. In a report, the bank said that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $50,000 this year and stretch the rally to $120,000 by the end of next year.
Large investors seem to be taking a bullish stance and are making the most of the stagnant Bitcoin prices. Behavioral analytics platform Santiment shows that sharks and whales, entities holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin, have increased their hoarding by 71,000 Bitcoin since mid-June.
While the long term looks bullish, macroeconomic indicators hold the key in the short term. The United States equities market is likely to be influenced by second-quarter earnings and the inflation data due to be released on July 12. That is likely to set the stage for a risk-on or a risk-off sentiment.
Could the S&P 500 Index (SPX) resume its rally over the next few days? Will Bitcoin and altcoins follow the equities markets higher? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
The bulls are trying to protect the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 4,373, but the long wick on the July 7 candlestick shows that bears are active at higher levels.
The relative strength index (RSI) has started to form a negative divergence, indicating that the bullish momentum may be weakening. That could result in a minor correction or consolidation for a few days.
If the 20-day EMA crumbles, the index may decline to 4,325. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break below it may sink the index to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of 4,257.
This bearish view will be negated if the price turns up from the current level and soars above 4,457. That will signal the resumption of the uptrend. The index could next rally to 4,650.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) skidded back below the moving averages on July 7, which suggests that the bears have kept up the pressure.
The index could next slump to the support at 101.92. Buyers are expected to defend this level with vigor because a break below it may challenge the vital support at 100.82.
This is an important level to keep an eye on, but if it breaks down, the index will complete a descending triangle pattern. That could signal the resumption of the next leg of the downtrend.
Conversely, if the price rebounds off 101.92, the bulls will again try to overcome the barrier at 103.57. If they can pull it off, the index may climb to the downtrend line. A break and close above this level will invalidate the bearish setup, signaling that the bulls are on a comeback.
Bitcoin bounced off the 20-day EMA ($29,886) on July 7 but returned to retest the level on July 10. The retest of a support level within a short period of time tends to weaken it.
If bulls want to prevent a fall, they will have to propel the price to the overhead resistance zone between $31,000 and $31,500. This zone is likely to attract strong selling, but if bulls overcome this obstacle, the BTC/USDT pair may rally to the next major resistance at $40,000.
Contrarily, if the price turns down and plunges below the 20-day EMA, it may tempt several short-term bulls to book profits. The pair could then descend to the 50-day SMA ($28,170). Such a deep correction will suggest that the pair may remain stuck between $24,800 and $31,500 for a while longer.
The bulls are trying to guard the 50-day SMA ($1,841), but they are struggling to propel Ether (ETH) above the 20-day EMA ($1,871). This suggests that the bears are not willing to give up their advantage.
Both moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is near the midpoint, signaling a balance between supply and demand. If buyers kick the price above the 20-day EMA, the ETH/USDT pair may climb to the overhead resistance at $2,000.
Alternatively, if the price tumbles below the 50-day SMA, the bears will try to yank the price to $1,700. This level may act as support, but if it gives way, the pair could extend its slide to the vital support at $1,626.
The bulls successfully held the support at $230 and pushed BNB (BNB) above the 20-day EMA ($241) on July 10. This indicates solid buying at lower levels.
If bulls sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the selling pressure is reducing. The BNB/USDT pair may then attempt a rally to the overhead resistance zone between $257 and $265. The bears are expected to fiercely defend the zone.
If the price turns down from the overhead resistance, it will suggest that the pair may continue to oscillate between $220 and $265 for a while longer. The bears will have to sink and sustain the price below $220 to indicate the start of the next leg of the downtrend.
XRP (XRP) remains pinned below the 20-day EMA ($0.48), indicating that the bears are selling on every recovery attempt.
The 20-day EMA is sloping down and the RSI is in negative territory, indicating that bears have the upper hand. Sellers will attempt to strengthen their position by pulling the price below the $0.45 support. If they succeed, the XRP/USDT pair may deepen the correction to the next support at $0.41.
If bulls want to prevent the slide, they will have to quickly thrust and sustain the price above the moving averages. That could open the doors for a possible relief rally to $0.53 and then to $0.58.
Buyers pushed Cardano (ADA) above the 20-day EMA ($0.29) on July 8, but they could not sustain the higher levels. The bears pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA on July 9.
The bulls will have to protect the uptrend line if they want to keep the bullish ascending triangle pattern intact. If the price rebounds off this level, the bulls will again try to drive the ADA/USDT pair above the $0.30 resistance. If they manage to do that, the pair may start a new up move toward $0.35 and then $0.39.
Instead, if the price slips below the uptrend line, it will invalidate the bullish pattern and sink the pair to $0.26. That will indicate a consolidation between $0.24 and $0.30 for some more time.
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Buyers are finding it difficult to propel Dogecoin (DOGE) above the 20-day EMA ($0.07), indicating that the bears are defending the level with vigor.
The bears will try to sink the price to the strong support at $0.06. This level is likely to attract buyers. If the price rebounds off this level with strength, it will signal that the DOGE/USDT pair may extend its range-bound action between $0.06 and $0.07 for a few more days.
The next trending move is expected to begin after buyers drive the price above $0.07 or bears sink the pair below $0.06. Until then, random and volatile price action is likely to continue.
Solana (SOL) turned down from the immediate resistance at $22, indicating that bears continue to sell on minor rallies.
The SOL/USDT pair could correct to the 20-day EMA ($19.15), which is an important support level to keep an eye on. If the price rebounds off this level, the bulls will again try to clear the overhead hurdle at $22. If they can pull it off, the pair will complete a bullish head-and-shoulders pattern. The pair could then start a rally toward $27.12.
On the contrary, if the price continues lower and plummets below the 50-day SMA ($18.44), several aggressive bulls may get trapped. That could result in long liquidation, pulling the pair near $15.28.
Buyers tried to arrest Litecoin’s (LTC) correction at the 20-day EMA ($95), but the bears had other plans. Sellers pulled the price below the 20-day EMA on July 10.
The bulls are trying to push the price back above the 20-day EMA, as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick. If they do that, the LTC/USDT pair may rise to the psychological level of $100. A break above this resistance could start a stronger recovery toward $106 and then $115.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the current level, it will suggest that the bears are not willing to let go of their advantage. The pair may then descend to the 50-day SMA ($89) and subsequently to $81.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
The bulls are trying to nudge Bitcoin above the critical resistance of $31,000, which may start a broad-based crypto rally.
The United States equity markets have witnessed a solid year so far. The Nasdaq Composite has soared 31.7%, its best first-half performance since 1983. Similarly, the S&P 500 Index’s (SPX) 15.9% gain is its best first half since 2019. This suggests that risky assets remain in demand.
In the cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin (BTC) has led the recovery from the front, rising 20% in Q2 2023. An encouraging sign is that the rise has not tempted the Bitcoin hodlers to book profits. Glassnode’s Illiquid Supply Change metric is near cycle highs, indicating hodler conviction.
Usually, the leader is the first to emerge from a bear market. If the rally sustains, the sentiment among the traders improves and they start looking at other buying opportunities. After Bitcoin’s rally, the altcoins have started to show signs of life. If the trend continues, several altcoins may rally over the next few weeks.
Will the U.S. equities markets continue their march higher? Could Bitcoin and the major altcoins continue their recovery? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.
The S&P 500 Index bounced off the breakout level of 4,325 on June 26, indicating that the bulls have flipped the level into support.
Buyers continued their purchases at higher levels which pushed the index above the immediate resistance at 4,448. This indicates the resumption of the uptrend. The bears are likely to pose a strong challenge at 4,500 but the likelihood of this level holding is low. If the index rises above this resistance, the rally could reach 4,650.
If bulls want to prevent the up-move, they will have to quickly yank the price below 4,325. If they do that, the selling could pick up momentum and the index may plummet to 4,200.
The bulls pushed the U.S. dollar index (DXY) above the 20-day exponential moving average (103) on June 28, indicating strength.
The bears tried to pull the price back below the moving averages on June 30 but the bulls did not relent. This suggests that lower levels are attracting buyers. The bulls will then try to push the price to the downtrend line.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the moving averages, it will suggest that bears are selling on minor rallies. That could pull the price down to the immediate support at 102.
The long tail on Bitcoin’s July 2 candlestick shows that the bulls are buying the intraday dips. The buyers will try to strengthen their position by driving and sustaining the price above the overhead resistance at $31,000.
If they manage to do that, the BTC/USDT pair could pick up momentum and start its northward march toward $40,000. The $32,400 level may act as a minor roadblock but it is likely to be crossed.
The rising 20-day EMA ($29,446) and the relative strength index (RSI) near the overbought zone indicate advantage to buyers. Sellers will have to sink the price below the 20-day EMA to gain the upper hand in the near term. The pair may then drop to the 50-day simple moving average ($27,704).
The bears tried to tug Ether (ETH) toward the 20-day EMA ($1,866) on July 2 but the long tail on the candlestick shows that the bulls are buying on minor dips.
The 20-day EMA has turned up and the RSI is above 62, indicating that the bulls have the edge. There is a minor resistance at $2,000 but that is likely to be crossed. The ETH/USDT pair could then rally to the overhead resistance zone between $2,142 and $2,200. Sellers are expected to guard this zone with vigor.
This positive view will invalidate in the near term if the price turns down from $2,000 and slumps below the moving averages. The pair may then continue its range-bound action between $1,626 and $2,000 for some more time.
BNB (BNB) rose above the 20-day EMA ($245) on July 1, indicating that the selling pressure is reducing.
The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI has climbed near the midpoint, indicating that the BNB/USDT pair may consolidate between $220 and $265 for a few more days. If the price sustains above the 20-day EMA, the pair may climb to the overhead resistance at $265. The bears are expected to fiercely guard this level.
Alternatively, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that every recovery attempt is being sold. The pair may then tumble to the strong support at $220.
The bulls are trying to propel XRP (XRP) above the 20-day EMA ($0.48) but the bears are aggressively defending the level.
If buyers do not allow the price to slip much below the current level, it will increase the likelihood of a break above the 20-day EMA. The XRP/USDT pair may then start its northward march toward $0.53 and then $0.58.
Conversely, if the price turns down sharply from the current level, it will suggest solid selling near the 20-day EMA. The bears will have to sink the price below $0.44 to gain the upper hand. The pair may then tumble to $0.41.
The bears successfully defended the $0.30 resistance on June 30 but they could not sustain Cardano (ADA) below the 20-day EMA ($0.29). This suggests that every minor dip is being purchased.
The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating that the bears may be losing their grip. Buyers will try to strengthen their position by kicking the price above $0.30. If they can pull it off, it will signal the start of a strong relief rally. The 50-day SMA ($0.32) may act as a barrier but it is likely to be overcome.
This positive view will invalidate in the near term if the price turns down sharply from the current level. That could keep the pair inside the $0.30 to $0.24 range for some more time.
Related: Bitcoin traders torn between breakout and $28K dip as BTC price stalls
Dogecoin (DOGE) surged above the overhead resistance at $0.07 on July 1 but the long wick on the candlestick shows selling at higher levels.
The failure to sustain the price above the overhead resistance indicates that the DOGE/USDT pair remains stuck inside the range between $0.06 and $0.07. Buyers will have to push and sustain the price above $0.07 to signal the start of a sustained recovery. The pair may then rally to $0.08.
On the downside, the $0.06 level remains the key support to watch out for. A break and close below this level could open the doors for a further decline to $0.05.
Solana (SOL) has been trading between the 20-day EMA ($17.61) and the downtrend line for the past three days. This suggests that the bears are selling near the downtrend line and the bulls are buying the dips.
The 20-day EMA has started to slope up and the RSI has risen into the positive territory, indicating that bulls are in the driver’s seat. That increases the possibility of a break above the downtrend line. If that happens, the SOL/USDT pair could rally to $22 and thereafter to $24.
If the price turns down sharply from the current level and breaks below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. That could sink the pair to the $16.18 to $15.28 support zone.
Litecoin (LTC) broke above the overhead resistance at $106 on June 30 and the bulls have managed to sustain the price above this level.
However, the bears have not given up and they are trying to stall the up-move at the next resistance at $115. If bulls sustain the price above $106, it will enhance the prospects of the continuation of the uptrend. The LTC/USDT pair may then soar to the overhead zone between $134 and $144.
The first support on the downside is $106. If this level gives way, it will indicate that the short-term bulls may be booking profits. That could drag the price down to the 20-day EMA ($93).
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
An onslaught of Bitcoin ETF applications could help BTC price find long-lasting support at the $30,000 level.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) snapped a five-week winning streak last week but it is still on track to close the first half of the year with stellar gains of nearly 13%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has done much better as it is up about 29%. Both these indices have been overtaken by Bitcoin (BTC) which has risen nearly 83% year-to-date.
Bitcoin’s bullish price action and the recent rush by several firms to apply for a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund seem to have attracted institutional investors’ attention. Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted on June 26 that the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) — a Bitcoin futures fund — witnessed its largest weekly inflow in a year.
Another bullish view was that of LookIntoBitcoin founder Philip Swift who said in his latest research that Bitcoin’s RHODL ratio metric is showing that Bitcoin’s supply has started to move from long-term holders to speculative investors, indicating increasing mainstream trading interest.
Could the entry of speculators boost prices further or is it a sign that the markets are overheated in the near term and may correct? Let’s analyze the charts to find out the next possible move.
The S&P 500 Index turned down from 4,448 on June 16, indicating that the short-term bulls are booking profits. That has pulled the price to the breakout level near 4,325. The 20-day exponential moving average (4,314) is placed just below this level, hence the bulls are likely to defend it aggressively.
If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the sentiment remains positive and traders are viewing the dips as a buying opportunity. The bulls will then try to propel the price above 4,448 and resume the uptrend. If they succeed, the index could attempt a rally to 4,650. There is a minor resistance at 4,500 but it is likely to be crossed.
This positive view will invalidate in the near term if the price turns down and plummets below the 20-day EMA. The index could then start a deeper correction to the 50-day simple moving average (4,206).
The U.S. dollar index plunged below the 50-day SMA (102.68) on June 15 but the bears could not build upon this strength. The bulls are trying to form a higher low near 102.
Buyers pushed the price above the moving averages on June 23 but the long wick on the candlestick shows that bears are selling at higher levels. The 20-day EMA (102.92) is flattening out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand.
If the price closes above the 20-day EMA, the index could rise to the downtrend line. The bears are expected to defend this level with all their might. The important level to watch on the downside is 102. A break and close below this support could sink the index to 100.82.
The bears are aggressively defending the $31,000 level but the bulls are not allowing the price to sustain below $30,000. This suggests that lower levels are being bought.
A tight consolidation near the overhead resistance of $31,000 shows that the bulls are in no mood to book profits as they expect the up-move to extend further. The rising 20-day EMA ($28,288) and the relative strength index (RSI) near the overbought zone indicate the path of least resistance is to the upside.
If bulls propel the BTC/USDT pair above the $31,000 to $31,500 resistance zone, it will signal the start of the next leg of the uptrend. There is a minor resistance at $32,400 but it may not hold the price for long. A rally above this resistance could clear the path for a dash to $40,000.
Ether (ETH) has been trading in a tight range between $1,936 and $1,861 for the past few days. This suggests indecision between the bulls and the bears.
The rising 20-day EMA ($1,822) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that bulls have the upper hand. If buyers kick the price above $1,936, the ETH/USDT pair could rise to the psychologically important level of $2,000. This level may act as a hurdle but it is likely to be crossed. The pair may then soar toward $2,200.
If bears want to prevent the upside, they will have to tug the price below the support at $1,861. The pair may then slip to the moving averages, which is an important level to keep an eye on. If this level cracks, the pair may again descend toward $1,700.
BNB (BNB) bounced off the strong support at $230 on June 24, indicating that the bulls are trying to arrest the decline at this level.
The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($250) to indicate strength. The BNB/USDT pair may then rise to the breakdown level of $265. If the price turns down sharply from this level, it will suggest that bears are selling on rallies. That could keep the pair range-bound between $265 and $220 for a while.
On the other hand, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA and breaks below $230, it will suggest that bears are in control. They will then try to drag the price below the vital support at $220 and start the next leg of the downtrend. The next support is at $200.
The bulls tried to push XRP (XRP) above the 20-day EMA ($0.49) for the past few days but the bears did not relent.
Sellers will try to sink the price below the strong support at the 50-day SMA ($0.48). If they do that, the XRP/USDT pair could slump to $0.44 and then to $0.41. The gradually downsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI near 45 indicate that bears have a slight edge.
On the upside, the 20-day EMA remains the key level to keep an eye on. Buyers will have to thrust and sustain the price above this level to gain strength. The pair could then attempt a rally to $0.56.
The bulls are finding it difficult to sustain Cardano (ADA) above the breakdown level of $0.30, which suggests that the bears are fiercely defending the level.
The ADA/USDT pair has been trading in a narrow range near the overhead resistance. This indicates uncertainty between the bulls and the bears. If the price turns down and breaks below $0.28, it will point to a range-bound action between $0.24 and $0.30 for a few days.
Alternatively, if bulls shove and sustain the price above $0.30, it will signal the start of a stronger recovery to the 50-day SMA ($0.33). This level may again act as a strong hurdle but if crossed, the pair may reach $0.38.
Related: Bitcoin surfs $30K as traders hope US trading will boost BTC price
Dogecoin (DOGE) turned down from the overhead resistance of $0.07 on June 23, indicating that the bears are defending the level with vigor.
The 20-day EMA ($0.07) has flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, indicating a state of equilibrium between buyers and sellers. If the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, the DOGE/USDT pair may consolidate between $0.06 and $0.07 for a few days.
The first sign of strength will be a rally above the resistance at $0.07. Buyers will then try to extend the recovery to $0.08. On the downside, a break and close below $0.06 could start a deeper correction to $0.05.
The relief rally in Solana (SOL) is facing strong resistance at the 20-day EMA ($17), indicating that the bears have not given up and they continue to sell on rallies.
Sellers will have to sink the price below the immediate support of $16.18 to be back in the driver’s seat. The SOL/USDT pair may then retest the important support zone between $15.28 and $14.
On the contrary, if the price turns up from the current level and breaks above $17.75, it will suggest that bulls have a slight edge. The pair could then rise to the breakdown level of $18.70. The 50-day SMA ($18.82) is placed just above this level hence the bears are expected to defend it fiercely.
Litecoin (LTC) turned down from the resistance line of the descending channel on June 24 and reached the moving averages.
The long tail on the June 24-26 candlestick shows that the bulls are buying the dips to the 50-day SMA ($85). Buyers will try to push the price to the resistance line of the channel which remains the important resistance to watch out for. If bulls overcome this obstacle, the LTC/USDT pair could start an up-move toward $105.
Contrarily, if the price continues lower and plunges below the moving averages, it will suggest that bears have the upper hand. The pair could then tumble to $76 and later to the support line of the channel.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
The strength in the S&P 500 and weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index could limit the short-term downside in Bitcoin and select altcoins.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has gained for five consecutive weeks, the first such instance since November 2021. In comparison, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading well below its local high of $31,000, made on April 14. This shows a clear divergence between the performance of the two asset classes.
Some analysts expect Bitcoin’s range-bound action to continue for some more time. Cryptocurrency traders will be looking for some positive triggers that could push the price above the range. One such rumor floating in the markets is that after BlackRock filed for a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund, Fidelity Investments may also follow suit. If that happens, it will be a positive sign for the markets.
Another positive for the cryptocurrency markets has been that the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) softened in the past week. Historically, the dollar and Bitcoin have an inverse correlation, which may help limit the downside in Bitcoin and launch a relief rally.
Let’s look at the important resistance levels that need to be crossed to start a sustained recovery in Bitcoin and the major altcoins.
The S&P 500 Index is in a short-term uptrend. The rally of the past few days pushed the relative strength index (RSI) into the overbought territory, indicating that a minor correction or consolidation is possible.
The index could turn down and retest the breakout level of 4,325. If the price rebounds off this level, it will suggest that buyers have flipped 4,325 into support. That will enhance the prospects of a rally to 4,500 and thereafter to 4,650.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 4,283, it will suggest that the bullish momentum is weakening. That could pull the index to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of 4,180. Below this level, the advantage may tilt in favor of the bears.
The failure of the bulls to sustain the U.S. Dollar Index back above the 20-day EMA (103) on June 12 accelerated selling. That pulled the index back below the 50-day SMA (102) on June 15.
The 20-day EMA has started to turn down and the RSI is in negative territory, indicating that bears have the upper hand. Sellers will try to sink the price to the crucial support at 100.82. A break and close below this level will signal the resumption of the downtrend.
Contrarily, if buyers quickly push the price back above the moving averages, it will suggest that the index could rise to the downtrend line. Buyers will have to drive the price above this level to open the gates for a possible rally to 106.
Bitcoin has been correcting inside the descending channel pattern for the past several weeks.
The 20-day EMA ($26,389) is flattening out and the RSI has climbed to the midpoint, indicating that the selling pressure could be reducing. Buyers will try to push the price to the resistance line of the channel. This is an important level for the bears to defend because a break and close above it could start a new up move.
Alternatively, if the price turns down sharply from the current level, it will suggest that bears continue to sell on rallies. The BTC/USDT pair could then retest the strong support zone between $25,250 and $24,800.
Ether’s (ETH) attempt to start a recovery is facing selling at the 20-day EMA ($1,766), but a minor positive is that the bulls have not allowed the price to slip back below $1,700.
If the price turns up from $1,700, the ETH/USDT pair will again attempt to rally above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, it will suggest that the short-term corrective phase may be over. The pair may first rise to $1,928 and subsequently to $2,000.
Contrarily, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $1,700, it will indicate that bears remain in command. There is minor support at $1,600, but if this level gets taken out, the pair may plunge to $1,352.
BNB’s (BNB) relief rally is facing selling at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $252.50, but a positive sign is that the bulls have not given up much ground.
The bulls will again try to thrust the price above the overhead resistance zone between $252.50 and the 20-day EMA ($259). If they can pull it off, the BNB/USDT pair may climb to the 61.8% retracement level of $272.50. The bears are expected to fiercely protect this level.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance, it will suggest that the bears are not ready to give up their hold. The pair could then once again drop to the critical support at $220.
The bears repeatedly pulled XRP (XRP) below the 50-day SMA ($0.47) between June 14 and 17, but they could not sustain the lower levels. This suggests buying on dips.
The bulls are trying to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.49). If they achieve that, it will indicate that the XRP/USDT pair may swing between the 50-day SMA and $0.56 for some more time. The flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI near 50 also point to a possible consolidation in the short term.
If bears want to remain on top, they will have to quickly tug the price below $0.45. That could accelerate selling and sink the pair to $0.41.
The bulls are struggling to start a relief rally in Cardano (ADA) even though the RSI is at deeply oversold levels.
The bears are trying to sink the price to the vital support at $0.24. This is important support to keep an eye on because if it cracks, the ADA/USDT pair may skid to $0.22 and then extend the decline to $0.20.
Buyers are likely to have other plans. They will try to guard the zone between $0.24 and $0.22 with vigor. If the price turns up from this zone, it will suggest that the pair may consolidate between $0.24 and $0.30 for a while. The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 20-day EMA ($0.30).
Related: Why is Cardano price down today?
Dogecoin (DOGE) has been trading inside a tight range between the 20-day EMA ($0.06) and the horizontal support at $0.06 for the past few days.
The failure of the DOGE/USDT pair to rise above the 20-day EMA suggests that the sentiment remains negative and the bears are selling on every minor rally. That increases the risk of a break below the vital support at $0.06. If this level gives way, the pair may collapse to $0.05.
On the upside, the 20-day EMA remains the key hurdle for the bulls to cross. If they sustain the price above this resistance, the pair could rally to $0.08. This level may pose a strong challenge to the bulls.
Solana (SOL) is witnessing a tough battle near the $15.28 level. Buyers pushed the price above this level, but they have not been able to overcome the barrier at $16.18.
The bears are trying to sink the price below $15.28. If they do that, the SOL/USDT pair could slide to $14.06 and later to the support at $12.80. This is an important level to watch out for because if it breaks down, the pair may tumble to $10.
The first sign of strength will be a break above the zone between $16.18 and the 20-day EMA ($17.03). That could clear the path for a potential retest of the breakdown level of $18.70. This level is likely to attract strong selling by the bears.
The bulls are trying to keep Litecoin (LTC) above the immediate support at $75, which suggests that lower levels are being bought.
The bulls will try to push the price to the overhead resistance at the 20-day EMA ($81). This level is likely to witness strong selling by the bears, as they will try to maintain their control. If the price turns down from the current level or the 20-day EMA, it will open the doors for a possible retest of the support zone between $75 and $70.
Contrary to this assumption, if bulls shove the price above the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bears may be losing their grip. The LTC/USDT pair could then rally to $90.
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This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
