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Bitcoin underperforms stocks, gold for the first time since 2018

Bitcoin's yearly losses are similar to high-profile stocks like Tesla and Meta with BTC investors down 70% in 2022.

Gold and stocks have underperformed in 2022, but the year has been difficult for Bitcoin (BTC) investors, in particular.

Worst year for Bitcoin since 2018

Bitcoin price looks prepared to close 2022 down  nearly 70% — its worst year since the crypto crash of 2018.

Bitcoin monthly returns. Source: Coinglass.com

BTC's depressive performance can be explained by factors such as the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates to curb rising inflationary pressures, followed by the collapse of many crypto firms, including Terra, Celsius Network, Three Arrow Capital, FTX, and others.

Some companies had exposure to defunct businesses, typically by holding their native tokens. For instance, Galaxy Digital, a crypto-focused investment firm founded by Mike Novogratz, confirmed a $555 million loss in August due to holding Terra's native asset LUNA, which has crashed 99.99% YTD.

Click “Collect” below the illustration at the top of the page or follow this link.

Meta, Tesla stocks mirror Bitcoin in 2022

The above catalysts have prompted Bitcoin to drop 65% year-to-date (YTD). 

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, the U.S. benchmark S&P 500 has plunged nearly 20% YTD to 3,813 points as of Dec. 28. That puts the index on its biggest calendar-year drop since the 2008 economic crisis. The bloodbath has proven to be worse for the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, down 35% YTD. 

High-profile losers include Amazon, which has crashed approximately 50% YTD, as well as Tesla and Meta , whose stocks have dropped nearly 72.75% and 65%, respectively. As it looks, tech stocks and Bitcoin have suffered similar losses in 2022.

BTC/USD versus IXIC, TSLA, META YTD price performance. Source: TradingView

Just as with Bitcoin, the Fed's rate hikes remains the most-critical factor behind the U.S. stock market's underperformance. But whether a tighter monetary policy would cause an economic recession in 2023 remains to be seen.

This uncertainty has driven capital toward the U.S. dollar for safety, with the U.S. dollar index (DXY), a barometer to gauge the greenback's health versus top foreign currencies, rising nearly 8.5% YTD. 

DXY daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Gold not such a "safe haven"

Spot gold is up 0.14% YTD to nearly $1,800 an ounce, which makes it a better performer than Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market.

XAUUSD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Nevertheless, the year has seen gold deviating from its "safe haven" characteristics in the face of a stronger dollar and rising U.S. bond yields.

For instance, the precious metal is down 22% from its 2022 peak of $2,070, though some losses have been pared as the dollar's uptrend lost momentum in the second half of 2022.

Bitcoin still winning since March 2020

Bitcoin had gained 1,650% after bottoming out in March 2020 below $4,000, boosted by the Fed's quantitative easing policy. Even as of Dec. 28, investors who purchased Bitcoin in March 2020 are sitting on 332% profits. 

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

In comparison, U.S. stock market and gold's pandemic era-rally was small. 

For instance, the Nasdaq Composite index grew up to 143% after bottoming out at 6,631 points in March 2020. So investors who may have gained exposure in the Nasdaq stocks during the easing era are sitting atop a maximum of 56% paper profits as of Dec. 28. 

IXIC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

The same for gold, which rose a mere 43% during the pandemic era and is now up 26.50% when measured from its March 2020 bottom of around $1,450. 

XAUUSD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Altseason Canceled? How Trading Syndicates, Scams and Geopolitics Buried Hopes for Growth

Price analysis 12/26: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, DOGE, ADA, MATIC, DOT

The S&P 500 may try to move up in the short term and that could trigger a recovery in Bitcoin and select altcoins.

The cryptocurrency markets are trading at record low volatility as investors have largely stayed away during the holiday season. That could be because investors are unsure about the cryptocurrencies that could lead the next bull run.

Cumberland senior research analyst Steven Goulden said in a “Year in Review” report that he expects four “emerging narratives” to lead the crypto space over the next six to 24 months. Goulden anticipates growth in nonfungible tokens, Web3 apps and games. He expects export-oriented nations to add Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) as reserve assets and if that happens, it could be a huge positive.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Jared Gross, head of institutional portfolio strategy at JPMorgan Asset Management, holds a different view. While speaking to Bloomberg, Gross said that the bear market had broken the notion that Bitcoin could act as a form of digital gold or an inflation hedge. He added that large institutional investors have stayed away from the crypto sector and that approach was unlikely to change anytime soon.

Could the S&P 500 index (SPX) and the cryptocurrency sector witness a recovery in the next few days? Let’s study the charts to find out.

SPX

The S&P 500 index (SPX) turned down sharply from the downtrend line and tumbled below the 50-day simple moving average (3,885) on Dec. 16. Buyers tried to push the price back above the 50-day SMA on Dec. 21 but the bears held their ground.

SPX daily chart. Source: TradingView

The sellers pulled the price below the immediate support of 3,795 on Dec. 22 but the long tail on the candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels. The bulls will again try to thrust the price above the moving averages and challenge the downtrend line. A break and close above the downtrend line could indicate a potential trend change.

Contrarily, if the price turns down from the 20-day exponential moving average (3,907), it will suggest that the bears continue to sell on rallies. The index could then drop below 3,764 and reach the next support at 3,650.

DXY

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has been trading below 105 for the past few days. This suggests that the bears are trying to flip the 105 level into resistance.

DXY daily chart. Source: TradingView

Both moving averages are sloping down and the RSI is in the negative territory, indicating advantage to bears. If the price turns down and breaks below 103.44, the selling could pick up momentum and the index could plunge to 102 and later to the psychological level of 100. The bulls may vigorously defend this level.

On the upside, the bulls will have to kick the price above the 20-day EMA (105) to suggest that the selling pressure may be reducing. The index could then attempt a rally to 107 and subsequently to 108. The bears are likely to mount a strong defense at this level.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin has been trading in a tiny range for the past few days. This indicates that traders are not clear about the next directional move, hence they may be sitting on the sidelines.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

This tight-range trading may not continue for long because traders thrive in a volatile market. Buyers will try to establish their supremacy by pushing the price above the moving averages and the resistance at $17,100.

If they succeed, the BTC/USDT pair could rally to $17,854 and then to the stiff resistance at $18,388. This level may act as a major obstacle and the bulls may find it difficult to surpass it.

If the price turns down sharply from the current level and dips below $16,550, the bears will try to extend the decline to the $15,500 to $16,000 support zone.

ETH/USDT

The bears tried to pull Ether toward the $1,150 support on Dec. 25 but the long tail on the candlestick shows that bulls are buying on minor dips. Buyers are currently attempting to catapult the price above the moving averages.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they manage to do that, the ETH/USDT pair could pick up pace and rally to $1,352. This level could act as a major hurdle because the bears will try to defend it to the best of their ability. If the price turns down from $1,352, it will suggest that the pair could remain stuck inside a large range for some more time.

If the price turns down sharply from the current level, it will enhance the prospects of a break below $1,150. The pair could then slide to $1,075 where buying may emerge. The flattish 20-day EMA ($1,227) and the RSI near 47 indicate a possible range-bound action in the near term.

BNB/USDT

The bears are aggressively defending the breakdown level of $250 but a minor positive is that the bulls have not given up much ground. This suggests that the bulls will again try to propel BNB (BNB) above the overhead resistance zone between $250 and $255.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they can pull it off, the BNB/USDT pair could quickly move up to the $290 to $300 resistance zone, which may act as a major barrier.

The downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative territory indicate advantage to bears. If the price turns down and breaks below $236, it will suggest that the bears have succeeded in flipping $250 into resistance. The pair could then drop to $220. If this level cracks, the pair could sink to the psychological level of $200.

XRP/USDT

XRP (XRP) is trading inside a symmetrical triangle pattern. The price rebounded off the support line on Dec. 19 and reached the 20-day EMA ($0.36) on Dec. 26.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the bears will again attempt to sink the XRP/USDT pair below the support line. If they succeed, the pair could plunge to the pivotal support at $0.30.

Contrary to this assumption, if bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rally to the resistance line. The bears may fiercely protect this level but if bulls overcome their resistance, the pair could start a strong recovery. The pair could first rally to $0.42 and then to the pattern target at $0.47.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin’s (DOGE) recovery from the strong support at $0.07 fizzled out at $0.08. This suggests that bears continue to sell on minor relief rallies.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The DOGE/USDT pair could trade between $0.07 and $0.08 for some time. The downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative territory indicate advantage to bears.

If the price slips below $0.07, the selling could intensify and the pair may plummet to the critical support at $0.05.

This negative view could invalidate in the short term if bulls push and sustain the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.08). The pair could then attempt a rally to the overhead resistance at $0.11.

Related: Bitcoin price volatility due within days, new take says as BTC flatlines at $16.8K

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) rebounded off the support line of the falling wedge pattern on Dec. 22 and the bulls are trying to push the price to the 20-day EMA ($0.27).

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will try to halt the recovery at the 20-day EMA and assert their supremacy. If the price turns down from this level, it will suggest that the trend remains negative and bears remain in command. The ADA/USDT pair could then retest the support at $0.25. If this level cracks, the pair may again drop to the support line.

If bulls want to gain the upper hand, they will have to push the price above the 20-day EMA. The pair could then rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.31) and later to the downtrend line.

MATIC/USDT

Polygon (MATIC) has been oscillating inside a large range between $0.69 and $1.05 for the past several months. Many times, trading inside a range is random and volatile.

MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The MATIC/USDT pair rebounded off $0.76 on Dec. 19 and the bulls are trying to push the price to the 20-day EMA ($0.83). The bears are expected to sell the rally to the 20-day EMA. If the price turns down from this level and breaks below $0.76, the pair could plummet to the strong support at $0.69.

On the other hand, if bulls drive the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could attempt a rally to the overhead resistance at $0.97.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) remains in a strong downtrend. The bulls are trying to protect the support at $4.37 but the shallow bounce increases the likelihood of the continuation of the down move.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will try to strengthen their position by pulling the price below $4.37. If they do that, the DOT/USDT pair could resume the downtrend. The pair could thereafter reach $4 where the buyers may again try to arrest the decline.

In a downtrend, the bears generally sell the relief rallies to the 20-day EMA ($4.80). The bulls will have to clear this hurdle to suggest that the downward momentum could be weakening. The pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($5.30) and later to $6.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Altseason Canceled? How Trading Syndicates, Scams and Geopolitics Buried Hopes for Growth

Crypto Analyst Details Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Trajectories, Says Traditional Markets Now Facing ‘Huge Test’ As 2022 Wraps Up

Crypto Analyst Details Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Trajectories, Says Traditional Markets Now Facing ‘Huge Test’ As 2022 Wraps Up

A widely followed crypto analyst is looking ahead for Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and one top altcoin as another year comes to a close. In the latest issue of his Cryptocademy newsletter, Justin Bennett first tells traders that the traditional stock index the S&P 500 (SPX500) will soon face a major test. “SPX is approaching […]

The post Crypto Analyst Details Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Trajectories, Says Traditional Markets Now Facing ‘Huge Test’ As 2022 Wraps Up appeared first on The Daily Hodl.

Altseason Canceled? How Trading Syndicates, Scams and Geopolitics Buried Hopes for Growth

Price analysis 12/12: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, DOGE, ADA, MATIC, DOT

Cryptocurrency and stock markets could see a sharp spike in volatility due to this week’s CPI print, interest rate hike and a conference from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell.

The consumer price index (CPI) data on Dec. 13 and the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting on Dec. 14 could influence the United States stock markets and the cryptocurrency markets in the near term.

Traders are likely to play it safe and not take large directional bets until the CPI print because any nasty surprise could produce a sharp knee-jerk reaction.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Some analysts believe that Bitcoin (BTC) could fall further before it hits a bottom, but Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of crypto derivatives platform BitMEX, thinks that Bitcoin may have passed its worst phase for this cycle.

While speaking with podcaster and independent market analyst Scott Melker, Hayes said that he believesthe “largest most irresponsible entities” have largely dumped their Bitcoin and “pretty much everyone who could go bankrupt has gone bankrupt.” Hayes expects Bitcoin to recover sometime in 2023.

Could risky assets witness a Santa rally and end the year on a strong footing? Let’s study the charts to find out.

SPX

The failure of the bulls to push the S&P 500 index (SPX) above the downtrend line may have tempted short-term traders to book profits. The price turned down on Dec. 1 and broke below the 20-day exponential moving average (3,958) on Dec. 6.

SPX daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears are trying to flip the 20-day EMA into resistance. If they succeed, the index could witness further selling and break below the immediate support at 3,918. That could pull the price down to the 50-day simple moving average (3,847).

Alternatively, if the price turns up and breaks above the 20-day EMA, it will suggest demand at lower levels. The index could then rise to the downtrend line. A break above this level could signal a potential trend change. The index could then rally to 4,300.

DXY

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) has been oscillating near the critical support of 105 for the past few days. The bears pulled the price below this level on Dec. 1 but the bulls purchased the dip near 104 and started a recovery on Dec. 5.

DXY daily chart. Source: TradingView

However, the up-move could not even reach the 20-day EMA (106) which suggests that the bears are aggressively selling on every minor rally. The bears will try to resume the downtrend by pulling the price below 104. If this level cracks, the next stop could be 102 and then the psychological level of 100.

If bulls want to avert this decline, they will have to quickly push the price back above the 20-day EMA. The index could then rise to the overhead resistance of 108.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin has been stuck between $16,678 and $17,424 for the past few days. This indicates that the bears are protecting the overhead resistance at $17,622 and the bulls are buying the minor dips.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Usually, tight ranges are followed by an increase in volatility but it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout. Therefore, it is better to wait for the price to break above the resistance or below the support before taking directional bets.

The advantage could shift in favor of the buyers if the price breaks and closes above the 50-day SMA ($17,911). That could clear the path for a possible rally to the downtrend line.

On the contrary, if the price turns down and plunges below $16,678, several buyers may be forced to close their positions. That could pull the BTC/USDT pair to $15,476.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) has been oscillating near the 20-day EMA ($1,255) for the past few days. This indicates indecision between the bulls and the bears.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The flattish moving averages and the relative strength index (RSI) near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. The ETH/USDT pair may trade between $1,218 and $1,309 for some more time.

The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the 50-day SMA ($1,326). That could open the doors for a possible rally to the resistance line of the descending channel.

Instead, if the price breaks below $1,218, the pair could fall to $1,151 and then retest the important support at $1,073.

BNB/USDT

The bulls repeatedly failed to push and sustain BNB’s (BNB) price above the 20-day EMA ($288) in the past few days. The bears latched on to this opportunity and are trying to pull the price lower.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA has started to turn down and the RSI has dipped below 42, indicating that bears are in command.

There is a minor support at $275 but if that level gives way, the BNB/USDT pair could slump to the vital support at $250. Buyers are expected to defend this level and keep the pair range-bound between $250 and $300 for some more time.

The bulls will have to push and sustain the price above $300 to gain the upper hand. The pair could then attempt a rally to $338.

XRP/USDT

XRP (XRP) has been trading below the 20-day EMA ($0.39) since Dec. 2, indicating that the bears are guarding the level with vigor. The price tumbled down to the immediate support at $0.37 on Dec. 12.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA has started to turn down gradually and the RSI has slipped near 42, suggesting that bears have the edge. If the $0.37 support gives way, the selling could intensify and the XRP/USDT pair could drop to $0.33.

Another possibility is that the price rebounds off the support at $0.37. If that happens, the pair could rise to the 20-day EMA. If the price once again turns down from this resistance, the likelihood of a break below $0.37 increases but if the 20-day EMA is scaled, the pair could climb to $0.41.

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) turned down and broke below the 50-day SMA ($0.09) on Dec. 11, which suggests that the bulls may be losing their grip.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The DOGE/USDT pair could drop to $0.08 which could act as a minor support. If the price bounces off this level but fails to break above the 20-day EMA, it will enhance the prospects of a drop to the crucial support at $0.07.

On the upside, buyers will have to kick the price above the psychological level of $0.10 to gain the upper hand. The pair could then rise to $0.11. If buyers clear this hurdle, the pair could pick up momentum and rally to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.13.

Related: What is a Doji candle pattern and how to trade with it?

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) has continued its downward move and is near the vital support at $0.29. Though the RSI is showing a positive divergence, the bulls have failed to drive the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.31). This suggests that the sentiment remains negative and the bears are not willing to let go of their advantage.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price breaks below the $0.29 support, the ADA/USDT pair could start the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then decline to the support line, which is likely to attract buyers as the price rebounded off this level on two previous occasions.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off $0.29, the bulls will try to thrust the pair above the 20-day EMA and the overhead resistance at $0.33. If they can pull it off, the pair could rise to the downtrend line.

MATIC/USDT

Polygon (MATIC) slid below the 20-day EMA ($0.90) on Dec. 11 and reached the uptrend line on Dec. 12. Buyers will try to stall the pullback at this level and start a relief rally.

MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price rebounds off the current level, the bulls will again try to catapult the MATIC/USDT pair above the overhead resistance at $0.97. If they can accomplish that, the pair could rally to $1.05 where the bears may mount a strong defense.

Conversely, if the price breaks below the uptrend line, the pair could drop to $0.80 and later to $0.76. That could keep the pair sandwiched between the important levels of $0.69 and $1.05 for a while longer.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) rebounded off the uptrend line on Dec. 7 but the bulls could not propel the price above the 20-day EMA ($5.40). This indicates that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The price turned down and broke below the uptrend line on Dec. 11. The bears tried to sink the DOT/USDT pair below the critical support at $5 on Dec. 12 but the long tail on the candlestick shows that bulls are trying to defend the level.

If the relief rally rises above the 20-day EMA, the recovery could pick up speed and the pair could touch the 50-day SMA ($5.82). On the other hand, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, the odds of a break below $5 increase. The pair could then drop toward $4.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Altseason Canceled? How Trading Syndicates, Scams and Geopolitics Buried Hopes for Growth

Price analysis 12/5: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, MATIC, DOT

Crypto markets appear to be losing some of their recent bullish momentum, but a favorable tailwind from equities markets could catalyze a breakout in Bitcoin and select altcoins.

It’s the final month of the year and analysts are out with their projections for the next year. In a note to investors, Standard Chartered suggested that “The financial-market surprises of 2023” will include Bitcoin (BTC) price diving to $5,000 at some point in the year. The fall will be triggered by a liquidity crunch, which could result in more bankruptcies and a fall in investor confidence in the crypto sector.

If this feels like an extreme, venture capitalist Tim Draper went in the opposite direction and predicted that Bitcoin could skyrocket to $250,000 by the middle of 2023. While speaking with CNBC, Draper said that Bitcoin’s massive rally is likely to be fuelled by increased participation from women who control a large part of retail spending.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

In the short term, analysts remain divided on the prospects of a Bitcoin rally. While some analysts expect a Christmas rally to push Bitcoin toward $19,000, others are not so optimistic.

Could the S&P 500 index (SPX) witness profit booking in the near term? Is the U.S. dollar index (DXY) ripe for a recovery? What is the effect of these two asset classes on cryptocurrencies? Let’s study the charts to find out.

SPX

The S&P 500 index rebounded off the 20-day exponential moving average (3,967) on Nov. 30, indicating that bulls continue to view the dips as a buying opportunity.

SPX daily chart. Source: TradingView

The price reached the downtrend line on Dec. 1 but the bulls failed to pierce this resistance. This indicates that the downtrend line is likely to act as a formidable resistance. The price could oscillate between the downtrend line and the 20-day EMA for a few days.

The upsloping 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive territory indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside.

If the price closes above the downtrend line, the bullish momentum could pick up further and the index may rally to 4,300.

This positive view could invalidate in the near term if the price turns down and breaks below the 20-day EMA. That could pull the index to the 50-day simple moving average (3,818).

DXY

The relief rally in the U.S. dollar index (DXY) fizzled out at the 20-day EMA (107) on Nov. 30. This shows that the sentiment has turned bearish and traders are selling on rallies to the 20-day EMA.

DXY daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears pulled the price below the strong support of 105 on Dec. 1 and thwarted attempts by the bulls to push the price back above 105 on Dec. 2. Although the downsloping moving averages and the RSI in the negative territory indicate advantage to bears, they could not capitalize on the breakdown and resume the downtrend.

Buyers have pushed the price back above 105 on Dec. 5. If bulls sustain the price above this level, the index could ascend to the 20-day EMA. This level could again act as a barrier but if bulls catapult the price above it, the index could rally to 108.

BTC/USDT

After trading near the 20-day EMA ($16,979) for the past four days, Bitcoin attempted a move higher on Dec. 5. However, the long wick on the day’s candlestick suggests selling at higher levels.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears are expected to defend the overhead zone between $17,622 and the 50-day SMA ($18,223) with vigor. If the price turns down from the zone but does not break below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that traders are buying on dips. That could increase the likelihood of a rally to $20,000 and thereafter to $21,500.

Alternatively, if the price turns down from the overhead resistance and plummets below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that the BTC/USDT pair could remain range-bound between $15,476 and $18,200 for a few days.

ETH/USDT

The bears tried to sink Ether (ETH) back below the 20-day EMA ($1,251) on Dec. 3 but the bulls held their ground. This suggests that the buyers are defending the 20-day EMA aggressively.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA has started to turn up gradually and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating that bulls have a slight edge. This improves the prospects of a break above the 50-day SMA ($1,334).

If that happens, the ETH/USDT pair could pick up momentum and rally to the resistance line of the descending channel which could act as a major roadblock.

On the downside, a break and close below $1,236 could suggest that bears are attempting a comeback. The pair could then slide to $1,150.

BNB/USDT

BNB’s (BNB) price has been trading near the moving averages for the past three days. This indicates a tussle between the bulls and the bears to gain the upper hand.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The flattish moving averages and the RSI near the midpoint do not give a clear advantage either to the bulls or the bears. Buyers will have to push and sustain the price above $300 to indicate strength. The BNB/USDT pair could then rise to $318 and thereafter to $338.

On the contrary, if the price turns down and breaks below $285, the selling could intensify and the pair may drop to $275. There is a minor support at this level but if it fails to hold, the decline could extend to the vital support at $250.

XRP/USDT

XRP (XRP) is facing resistance at $0.41 but finding support at the uptrend line. The price action of the past few days has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which will complete on a break and close above $0.41.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If that happens, it will suggest a potential trend reversal and the XRP/USDT pair could start an up-move to $0.45 and later to $0.51.

Alternatively, if the price turns down and breaks below the uptrend line, it will invalidate the bullish setup. That could sink the price to $0.37 and then to $0.34. Such a move will suggest that the pair may extend its stay inside the large range between $0.30 and $0.41 for a few more days.

The flattish 20-day EMA and the RSI near the midpoint also suggest a consolidation in the near term.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) nudged above the 20-day EMA ($0.32) on Dec. 5 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. This suggests that bears are selling on relief rallies.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

For the recovery to strengthen further, the bulls will have to sustain the price above the 20-day EMA. The ADA/USDT pair could then rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.35) and subsequently to the downtrend line. This level may offer a strong resistance to the bulls.

The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, suggesting a range-bound action in the near term. The bears will have to sink the price below $0.29 to signal the resumption of the downtrend.

Related: Litecoin eyes $100 after 'rare' LTC price breakout

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin’s (DOGE) recovery rose above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.10 and reached near the 50% retracement level of $0.11.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The long wick on the Dec. 5 candlestick shows that the bears are defending the zone between the 50% retracement at $0.11 and the 61.8% retracement at $0.13. The first line of support to watch out for on the downside is the 20-day EMA ($0.09).

A strong rebound off this level will suggest that lower levels are attracting buyers and that could increase the possibility of a rally above $0.13. The pair could then complete a 100% retracement and rise to $0.16.

This bullish view could be negated if the price turns down and plummets below the moving averages.

MATIC/USDT

Polygon (MATIC) bounced off the 20-day EMA ($0.90) on Dec. 4, indicating that bulls are attempting to flip the level into support.

MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA has started to slope up and the RSI is just above the midpoint, indicating that buyers have a slight edge. There is a minor resistance at $0.97 but it is likely to be crossed. The MATIC/USDT pair could then rally to $1.05 where the bears may try to stall the recovery.

If the price turns down from $1.05, the pair could again drop to the 20-day EMA. A strong bounce off it could improve the chances of a break above $1.05. Contrarily, a break below the moving averages could pave the way for a decline to the uptrend line.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) broke above the 20-day EMA ($5.54) on Dec. 2 and the bulls successfully defended the retest on Dec. 3. Buyers tried to propel the price to the 50-day SMA ($5.92) on Dec. 5 but met with significant resistance at higher levels.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI has risen to the midpoint, indicating that the downward momentum is weakening. This increases the possibility of a break above the 50-day SMA. If this level is crossed, the DOT/USDT pair could rise to the downtrend line. This level is likely to act as a major obstacle for the bulls.

On the other hand, if the price turns down and slips below the 20-day EMA, the pair could decline to $5.30 and then to $5.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Altseason Canceled? How Trading Syndicates, Scams and Geopolitics Buried Hopes for Growth

Markets Spike After Fed Chair Says It ‘Makes Sense to Moderate the Pace’ of Rate Hikes, Hints Easing Could Happen in December

Markets Spike After Fed Chair Says It ‘Makes Sense to Moderate the Pace’ of Rate Hikes, Hints Easing Could Happen in DecemberEquities, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies shined on Wednesday following Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Brookings Institution in Washington. The crypto economy increased 3.11% to $860 billion, while the top four stock indexes jumped between 2% to 5% higher on Nov. 30. Stocks, Crypto, and Precious Metal Markets Jump Higher Against the Greenback […]

Altseason Canceled? How Trading Syndicates, Scams and Geopolitics Buried Hopes for Growth

Price analysis 11/28: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, MATIC, DOT

Turmoil in China, concerns over the global economy and BlockFi’s bankruptcy filing are all weighing on crypto markets this week.

China witnessed a spike in Covid cases and that has resulted in strict lockdown restrictions in several parts of the country. This triggered widespread protests in China and has possibly pulled the global stock markets lower. 

In addition to the turmoil in China, the cryptocurrency markets, which are already in a bear grip, are reeling under pressure from the Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing by BlockFi and its subsidiaries. Bitcoin (BTC) is down 21% in November, on track to its worst November performance since 2018.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

The sharp fall in Bitcoin’s price has drastically reduced the number of wallets holding more than $1 million worth of Bitcoin. There were 112,898 millionaire wallets on Nov. 8, 2021, but Glassnode data shows that as of Nov. 25, only 23,245 wallets boast of a Bitcoin balance worth $1 million or more.

Could the weakness in the S&P 500 index (SPX) pull Bitcoin below $16,000? Let’s study the charts to find out.

SPX

The recovery in the S&P 500 index has risen close to the downtrend line. The bears are likely to defend this level as they had done on two previous occasions.

SPX daily chart. Source: TradingView

The sellers will have to sink the price below the 20-day exponential moving average (3,922) to tilt the short-term advantage in their favor. Post that, the index could drop to the 50-day simple moving average (3,794) and later to 3,700.

Contrarily, if the price turns down from the current level or the overhead resistance but bounces off the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that traders continue to buy on dips. That could improve the prospects of a break above the downtrend line. If that happens, the index could rise to 4,300. Such a move will suggest that the downtrend has ended.

DXY

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) turned down from 108 on Nov. 21, indicating that the sentiment has turned bearish and the traders may be using the rallies to lighten long positions and establish short positions.

DXY daily chart. Source: TradingView

The downsloping 20-day EMA (108) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the negative territory indicate that bears are in command. If bears succeed in pulling the price below 105, the selling could intensify and the index may slide to 103.50 and then 102.

On the other hand, if the rebound off $105 sustains, the recovery could reach the 20-day EMA. If the relief rally again faces rejection at this level, the likelihood of a break below 105 increases.

On the upside, buyers will have to pierce the resistance at 108 to signal a strong comeback. The index could then rise to the uptrend line where it may face tough resistance from the bears.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin’s relief rally could not even reach the 20-day EMA ($16,972), indicating that traders are hesitant to buy at higher levels. The sellers will now try to pull the price to the crucial support at $15,476.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The BTC/USDT pair is forming a descending triangle pattern, which will complete on a break and close below $15,476. This negative setup has a target objective at $13,330.

The downsloping moving averages indicate advantage to bears but the bullish divergence on the RSI suggests that the bearish momentum could be weakening.

If the price turns up and breaks above the downtrend line, it could invalidate the negative setup. That could open the doors for a possible rally to the overhead resistance at $17,622. Buyers will have to kick the price above this level to indicate that the downtrend could be ending.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) reached the 20-day EMA ($1,233) on Nov. 26 but the bulls could not propel the price above it. This suggests that the bears continue to defend the 20-day EMA vigorously.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The sellers may try to pull the price to the support line of the descending channel pattern, which is close to the psychologically critical level of $1,000.

Buyers are likely to defend this level with all their might but they will have to clear the overhead obstacle at the 20-day EMA to start a sustained recovery. The ETH/USDT pair could then rise to the 50-day SMA ($1,337) and subsequently to the resistance line.

On the downside, a break and close below the channel could accelerate selling and sink the pair to the June low at $881.

BNB/USDT

BNB’s (BNB) recovery turned down from $318 on Nov. 26 and plunged back below the breakout level of $300 on Nov. 28.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will try to solidify their position by pulling the price below the moving averages. If they succeed, it will suggest that the break above $300 may have been a bull trap. The BNB/USDT pair could then decline to $275 and later to $258.

If the price turns up from the moving averages, it will suggest that lower levels are attracting buyers. The pair could then again rise to $318. If bulls drive the price above this resistance, the pair could rally to $338.

XRP/USDT

XRP (XRP) rose above the overhead resistance of $0.41 on Nov. 25 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels as seen from the long wick on the day’s candlestick.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

This may have attracted selling by the bears who pulled the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.39) on Nov. 28. The price has dipped to the breakout level from the symmetrical triangle.

This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break below it will suggest that the XRP/USDT pair may extend its stay inside the $0.30 to $0.41 range for a few more days. The flattening 20-day EMA and the RSI near 45 suggest that the bullish momentum has weakened in the near term.

Buyers will have to push and sustain the price above $0.41 to signal the start of a new up-move.

ADA/USDT

Cardano’s (ADA) relief rally could not even reach the 20-day EMA ($0.33), indicating a lack of demand at higher levels.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears will try to build upon their advantage and resume the downtrend by pulling the ADA/USDT pair below the support near $0.30. If they do that, the pair could drop to the support line where buyers may step in and arrest the decline.

This bearish view could invalidate in the near term if the price rebounds off the support near $0.30 and rises above the 20-day EMA. The pair could then attempt a rally to the downtrend line, indicating that the bears may be losing their grip.

Related: New BTC miner capitulation? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) soared above the psychological level of $0.10 on Nov. 27 but the bulls could not sustain the higher levels. Profit booking pulled the price back into the range on Nov. 28.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($0.09) is gradually sloping up and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that buyers have a slight edge. If the price springs up from the 20-day EMA, the bulls will try to resume the up-move by pushing the DOGE/USDT pair above $0.11. If they manage to do that, the rally could reach the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.12.

On the contrary, if the price turns down and breaks below the moving averages, it will suggest that the break above the range may have been a bull trap. The pair could then drop to the support at $0.07.

MATIC/USDT

Buyers are struggling to push Polygon (MATIC) above the 20-day EMA ($0.88). This suggests that bears are viewing the relief rallies as a selling opportunity.

MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The MATIC/USDT pair could again drop to the uptrend line. This level has acted as a strong support on four previous occasions, hence the bulls will again try to defend it aggressively. If the price bounces off the uptrend line, the pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.90).

A break above this level will suggest that the bulls are on a comeback. The pair could then rise to $0.97. On the contrary, if the price breaks below the uptrend line, the pair could drop to the important support at $0.69.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) is in a strong downtrend. Attempts by the bulls to start a recovery fizzled out at $5.53 on Nov. 24. This suggests that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears have pulled the price near the crucial support at $5. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because if they fail to do that, the DOT/USDT pair could resume the downtrend. The pair could then decline to $4.06.

Alternatively, if the price turns up from the current level or rebounds off $5, it will suggest demand at lower levels. Buyers will again try to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($5.57) and extend the relief rally. The pair could then rise to $6.50.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Altseason Canceled? How Trading Syndicates, Scams and Geopolitics Buried Hopes for Growth

Price analysis 11/21: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, DOGE, MATIC, DOT

Crypto markets have started the week on a weak note, suggesting that buyers remain skeptical about buying any significant dips.

Continued selling in the cryptocurrency markets pulled the total market capitalization below $800 billion on Nov. 21. Traders are increasingly nervous about the extent of damage FTX’s collapse may have on several crypto firms. Until the uncertainty clears, it is futile to expect a sustained recovery in cryptocurrency prices.

The FTX saga has broken the close correlation between the United States equities markets and Bitcoin (BTC). While Bitcoin is trading close to its 52-week low, the S&P 500 (SPX) has recovered sharply from its low made on Oct. 13.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is usually inversely correlated to Bitcoin but its recent drop from the multi-year high did not benefit Bitcoin. This suggests that crypto buyers remain on the sidelines and are not venturing in to buy.

However, Billionaire investor and hedge fund manager Bill Ackman said in a Twitter thread on Nov. 20 that crypto was “here to stay with proper oversight and regulation.”He also highlighted the potential of cryptocurrencies to “greatly benefit society and grow the global economy.”

Could the cryptocurrency market catch up with the U.S. stock markets? Let’s study the charts of the S&P 500 index, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) and the major cryptocurrencies to find out.

SPX

The S&P 500 index has been in a strong recovery since bottoming out at 3,491 on Oct. 13. Although the 4,000 level has been acting as a resistance in the past few days, a positive sign is that the bulls have not given up much ground.

SPX daily chart. Source: TradingView

The rising 20-day exponential moving average (3,879) and the relative strength index (RSI) in the positive territory indicate advantage to buyers. If bulls push the price above 4,029, the up-move could reach the downtrend line.

The bears have successfully halted previous relief rallies near the downtrend line hence they will try to do the same again.

If the price turns down from the downtrend line but does not slip below the 20-day EMA, it will suggest that bulls are buying on dips. That could increase the likelihood of a break above the downtrend line.

The first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the 20-day EMA. The index could then decline to the 50-day simple moving average (3,786).

DXY

The U.S. dollar index plunged below the uptrend line on Nov. 10. This is the first indication that the index may have topped out in the near term.

DXY daily chart. Source: TradingView

The index rebounded off the support near 105, indicating strong buying on dips. The 20-day EMA (108) is sloping down and the RSI is in the negative territory, suggesting that bears have an edge in the short term.

If the relief rally stalls near the 20-day EMA, the bears will make another attempt to pull the index below 105. If they succeed, the next stop could be 103.50 and then 102.

Alternatively, if buyers drive the price above the 20-day EMA, the index could rise to the uptrend line. The bulls will have to push the price back above this level to indicate that the corrective phase may be over.

BTC/USDT

Bitcoin remains in a downtrend. The bears pulled the price below the immediate support of $16,229 on Nov. 21, which suggests a lack of demand from the bulls.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price sustains below $16,229, the BTC/USDT pair could retest the vital support at $15,588. This is an important level to keep an eye on because a break and close below it could signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend. The pair could then start its downward journey toward $12,200.

On the contrary, if the price turns up and breaks back above $16,229, it will suggest that the bulls are buying the dips below $16,000. The bulls will then attempt to push the price toward the overhead resistance at $17,190.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) continues to gradually slide toward the support line of the descending channel pattern. This is an important level for the bulls to defend because a break below the channel could intensify selling.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The ETH/USDT pair could then drop to the psychological level of $1,000 and thereafter to the vital support at $881. The downsloping 20-day EMA ($1,381) and the RSI in the negative territory indicate that bears are in control.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price rebounds off the support line with strength, it will suggest that buyers are defending the level with all their might. They will then try to clear the moving averages and open the doors for a possible rally to the downtrend line of the channel.

BNB/USDT

BNB (BNB) has declined to the critical support at $258 which could witness a tough battle between the bulls and the bears.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The downsloping 20-day EMA ($284) and the RSI below 37 indicate that bears have the upper hand. If bears sink and sustain the price below $258, the selling could pick up momentum and the BNB/USDT pair could drop to $239 and thereafter to $216.

Alternatively, if the price turns up from the current level, it will suggest that the bulls continue to buy the dips to $258. The pair could then rise to the moving averages where the bears may again mount a strong defense.

XRP/USDT

Buyers pushed XRP (XRP) above the downtrend line on Nov. 20 but could not clear the hurdle at the 20-day EMA ($0.39). This suggests that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The XRP/USDT pair could drop to the support line where buyers may step in. A strong rebound off the support line will suggest that the pair has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern.

On the other hand, if the price slips below the support line, the pair could drop to the $0.32 to $0.30 support zone. A strong rebound off this zone will indicate that the pair may remain stuck between $0.30 and $0.41 for a few days.

The bears will have to pull the price below $0.30 to signal the start of the next leg of the downtrend.

ADA/USDT

Cardano (ADA) remains in a strong downtrend. The bears pulled the price below the immediate support at $0.31 on Nov. 21 opening the doors for a possible drop to the support line.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

A minor positive for the bulls is that the RSI is forming a bullish divergence. This suggests that the bearish momentum could be waning. The ADA/USDT pair could attempt a recovery from the support line, which is likely to hit a wall at the 20-day EMA ($0.34).

If the price turns down from this level, it will suggest that bears continue to sell on rallies. That could result in a retest of the support line. If this level cracks, the selling could accelerate and the pair may drop to $0.25. Contrarily, a break above the 20-day EMA could embolden the buyers who may push the pair to the downtrend line.

Related: Bitcoin price levels to watch as traders bet on sub-$14K BTC

DOGE/USDT

After trading between the moving averages for several days, Dogecoin (DOGE) plunged below the 50-day SMA ($0.08) on Nov. 20. This indicates that the uncertainty resolved in favor of the bears.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($0.09) is sloping down and the RSI is in the negative area, indicating that the DOGE/USDT pair could decline to the immediate support at $0.07. If this level also gives way, the pair could complete a 100% retracement of the entire rally and drop to $0.06.

Conversely, if the price rebounds off the current level or $0.07, the bulls will again try to propel the pair above $0.09. A close above this resistance could signal that the corrective phase may be over. The pair could then rally to $0.12.

MATIC/USDT

Polygon (MATIC) dropped to the uptrend line on Nov. 21. This level has acted as a support on two previous occasions, hence the bulls will again try to defend it.

MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

A recovery from the uptrend line could face strong selling near the 20-day EMA ($0.91). If the price turns down from this level, the pair could again retest the uptrend line. A break below this level could pull the pair to the important support at $0.69. This level is likely to attract buyers.

On the upside, the 20-day EMA remains the key resistance to keep an eye on. If buyers drive the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair could rise to $0.97 and later to the stiff overhead resistance at $1.05.

DOT/USDT

Polkadot (DOT) remains in a strong downtrend. The bears pulled the price below the pennant formation and the Nov. 10 intraday low of $5.32 on Nov. 20. This indicates the resumption of the downtrend.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Buyers may attempt to start a recovery from the psychological level of $5 which could reach the breakdown level from the pennant. If bears flip this level into resistance, the prospects of a decline to $4.08 increase.

On the contrary, if buyers thrust the price above the 20-day EMA ($5.86), it will indicate aggressive buying at lower levels. That may trigger short covering from the aggressive bulls, clearing the path for a possible rally to $6.50.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Altseason Canceled? How Trading Syndicates, Scams and Geopolitics Buried Hopes for Growth

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Altseason Canceled? How Trading Syndicates, Scams and Geopolitics Buried Hopes for Growth