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Ethereum could fall 30% after spot ETH ETFs launch — Crypto VC

Mechanism Capital’s Andrew Kang believes an Ether ETF would provide limited upside for the asset unless Ethereum “develops a compelling pathway to improve its economics.”

Ether (ETH) could tumble to as low as $2,400 after the launch of spot Ether exchange-traded funds, says Andrew Kang, a founder and partner at crypto-focused venture capital firm Mechanism Capital.

Ether is currently trading for $3,410, according to CoinGecko. A tumble to $2,400 would be a nearly 30% fall from its current price.

In a June 23 X post, Kang said, unlike Bitcoin, Ether attracts less institutional interest, there are few incentives to convert spot Ether into ETF form, and the network cash flows haven’t been very impressive.

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Bitwise’s latest Ethereum ad can be minted as an NFT

Proceeds from the NFT mints are being paid to Protocol Guild, a collective funding mechanism created by Ethereum core contributors and the ad’s two actors.

Digital asset manager Bitwise released its first spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund commercial on Thursday, allowing non-fungible token (NFT) enthusiasts to mint the 39-second clip on Ethereum.

“Capture a piece of crypto history: the 1st national TV spot minted as an NFT,” Bitwise claimed in a June 20 X post.

Bitwise themed the ad on Ethereum, operating 24/7 while “big finance” sleeps, seemingly taking inspiration from an Apple ad comparing Mac computer devices to PCs in the early 2000s.

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SEC Ethereum ETF decision unlikely driven by politics: Bernstein

Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra believe the United States securities regulator likely approved the spot Ether ETFs to avoid a legal battle.

The United States securities regulator’s decision to approve the spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds may not have been a last-minute decision driven by political pressure, according to analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein.

One of the leading theories behind the Securities and Exchange Commission’s sudden change in tone toward spot Ether ETFs in May was increased political pressure from the Democrats to win over swing voters in the lead-up to the U.S. election this November.

However, that narrative began looking less credible after President Joe Biden vetoed the SEC’s Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB) No. 121 repeal bill, Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra wrot in a June 3 report.

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Ethereum ETFs launch next month ‘certainly possible’ — Analyst

The launch date will largely depend on how quickly approved applicants amend their S-1 registration statements and how many rounds of feedback they receive from the SEC.

The newly-approved spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds could launch as early as mid-June — if the United States securities regulator follows a similar timeline to its spot Bitcoin ETF process.

Spot Ether ETFs got the green light for their 19b-4 filings today, allowing the funds to be listed on their respective exchanges. However, applicants will first need approved S-1 registration statements to begin trading.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart has been saying S-1 approvals could come in a “couple of weeks,” but also noted that they “could take longer” as the process typically takes up to five months.

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SEC’s ETF decision means ETH and ’a lot’ of other tokens are not securities

That doesn't mean the securities regulator can't still pursue action against actors in the staking domain, industry analysts and lawyers warn.

The approval of spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds is “implicit recognition” from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission that Ether is not a security, according to industry pundits.

One even suggests this could extend to other tokens as well. 

"These are commodities-based trust shares, so the SEC, by approving these, is explicitly saying they’re not going to go after Ether as a security,” noted Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart in a discussion with Ryan Sean Adams on the Bankless podcast.

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‘It’s happening’ — 5 Ethereum ETF bidders amend SEC filings

Five U.S. asset managers bidding for an Ether ETF have amended their 19b-4 filings with the SEC.

Five potential spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers have submitted amended 19b-4 filings after receiving last-minute feedback from the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The amended filings came from Fidelity, VanEck, Invesco and Galaxy, Ark 21Shares and Franklin Templeton, several filings show.

All five filings came in a 25-minute period between 9:35 pm and 10:00 pm UTC on May 21, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.

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Prometheum launches Ether custody service that treats ETH as a security: Report

The digital assets platform soft-launched its controversial Ethereum custody service on May 17 and is targeting a full launch next month.

Digital asset trading and custody firm Prometheum has reportedly soft-launched its controversial Ether (ETH) custody service, which treats digital assets as security.

According to a May 20 report from Fortune, the custody solution has been rolled out to a few select companies on May 17, with a full-scale launch expected to take place in June.

Prometheum is targeting its services toward asset management firms, hedge funds, banks and registered investment advisors and aims to expand to retail clients later in 2024.

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Ether surges 18% amid new hope for spot Ether ETFs approvals

If a 19b-4 spot Ether ETF filing be approved, analysts anticipate the SEC won’t immediately sign off on the S-1, which is required for the products to launch.

Ether (ETH) spiked 18% over 24 hours amid new speculation that spot Ether exchange-traded funds could be approved this week — despite months of pessimism.

According to Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, there has been “chatter” that the United States securities regulator is asking applicants to accelerate their 19b-4 filings.

This has prompted the pair to raise their approval odds from 25% to 75%.

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Spot Ether ETFs will come down to a 5-person vote: Gensler the decider?

It was speculated that Gensler’s vote secured the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January — and the same five commissioners are set to vote on Ether ETFs this week.

The fate of spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds could be decided this week by a single vote from Gary Gensler, the chair of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission — if history is any indication.

In January, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs came down to a five-commissioner panel. Two crypto-friendly commissioners, Hester Pierce and Mark Uyeda, voted to approve ETFs, while Commissioners Caroline Crenshaw and Jaime Lizárraga voted against them.

Gensler also voted to approve it, leading many to believe his vote ultimately secured approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which were approved with a 3-2 vote on Jan. 10, 2024.

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Hashdex tips spot Bitcoin ETFs to trade by Q2, followed by Ethereum

Hashdex's head of product for the U.S. and Europe says the exact timing for a spot Bitcoin ETF is unclear but predicts it to start by the second quarter of 2024.

Hashdex, one of the 13 asset managers vying for spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund, expects to see the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States land by the second quarter of 2024, followed by a spot Ether (ETH) ETF.

“The exact timing of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. remains unclear, but in 2023, the narrative around this product switched from a question of ‘if’ to a matter of ‘when,’” said Hashdex’s U.S.

“We believe U.S. investors will have access to a spot Bitcoin ETF by the second quarter of the new year and that a spot Ether ETF is likely to follow.”

Hashdex is one of the 13 asset managers with a spot Bitcoin ETF bid before the Securities and Exchange Commission. It has also pitched a hybrid Ether ETF that holds both futures and spot contracts to the same regulator.

While Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have pinned 90% odds that spot Bitcoin ETFs will be approved in the days leading up to Jan.

Seyffart noted in November that “there could be weeks or even months between approval and launch.”

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