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Ether surges 18% amid new hope for spot Ether ETFs approvals

If a 19b-4 spot Ether ETF filing be approved, analysts anticipate the SEC won’t immediately sign off on the S-1, which is required for the products to launch.

Ether (ETH) spiked 18% over 24 hours amid new speculation that spot Ether exchange-traded funds could be approved this week — despite months of pessimism.

According to Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, there has been “chatter” that the United States securities regulator is asking applicants to accelerate their 19b-4 filings.

This has prompted the pair to raise their approval odds from 25% to 75%.

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Spot Ether ETFs will come down to a 5-person vote: Gensler the decider?

It was speculated that Gensler’s vote secured the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January — and the same five commissioners are set to vote on Ether ETFs this week.

The fate of spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds could be decided this week by a single vote from Gary Gensler, the chair of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission — if history is any indication.

In January, the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs came down to a five-commissioner panel. Two crypto-friendly commissioners, Hester Pierce and Mark Uyeda, voted to approve ETFs, while Commissioners Caroline Crenshaw and Jaime Lizárraga voted against them.

Gensler also voted to approve it, leading many to believe his vote ultimately secured approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which were approved with a 3-2 vote on Jan. 10, 2024.

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Hashdex tips spot Bitcoin ETFs to trade by Q2, followed by Ethereum

Hashdex's head of product for the U.S. and Europe says the exact timing for a spot Bitcoin ETF is unclear but predicts it to start by the second quarter of 2024.

Hashdex, one of the 13 asset managers vying for spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund, expects to see the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States land by the second quarter of 2024, followed by a spot Ether (ETH) ETF.

“The exact timing of a spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. remains unclear, but in 2023, the narrative around this product switched from a question of ‘if’ to a matter of ‘when,’” said Hashdex’s U.S.

“We believe U.S. investors will have access to a spot Bitcoin ETF by the second quarter of the new year and that a spot Ether ETF is likely to follow.”

Hashdex is one of the 13 asset managers with a spot Bitcoin ETF bid before the Securities and Exchange Commission. It has also pitched a hybrid Ether ETF that holds both futures and spot contracts to the same regulator.

While Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas have pinned 90% odds that spot Bitcoin ETFs will be approved in the days leading up to Jan.

Seyffart noted in November that “there could be weeks or even months between approval and launch.”

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Grayscale ETH futures ETF a ‘trojan horse’ for spot Ethereum ETF: Analyst

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart thinks Grayscale’s Ether futures ETF application is just a ploy to corner the SEC to approve its spot Ether ETF.

Grayscale Investments is using its Ether (ETH) futures exchange-traded fund (ETF) application as a “trojan horse” to corner the United States Securities and Exchange Commission into approving its spot Ether ETF, says Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.

Seyffart said in a Nov. 15 X (Twitter) post following the SEC delaying Grayscale’s ETH futures ETF bid that he believes if the SEC approves Grayscale’s application, then it would enable Grayscale to argue for the approval of its spot Ether ETF application.

If the SEC denies Grayscale’s bid, the asset manager could argue the SEC is treating Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether futures ETFs differently by allowing one under the Securities Act of 1933 but not the other.

“Watch [the SEC] try to either approve and argue why this is different from spot. Or Deny and argue why 1933 act products are meaningfully different from 1940 act products. Both are bad for SEC [in my opinion]. Genius move.”

Grayscale’s Ether futures ETF bid was submitted via a form 19b-4 — which exchanges file to inform the SEC of a security-based swap request. Seyffart said none of the 40 or so approved Ether ETF products went through the 19b-4 approval process.

Seyffart was initially unsure why Grayscale filed its Ether futures ETF via a 19b-4. He now believes Grayscale is playing “chess” with the SEC by using the Ether Futures ETF as a “trojan horse” to obtain a 19b-4 order from the regulator to corner them into a lose-lose situation.

Seyffart and Scott Johnsson, General President at Van Buren Capital General, agreed Grayscale wouldn’t launch the Ether futures ETF.

“Doubtful this product ever trades, but useful as a vessel to get spot ETH over the finish line,” Johnsson said.

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Seyffart’s comments come as the SEC delayed its decision on Grayscale’s Ether futures ETF on Nov. 15 — two days earlier than its Nov. 17 deadline. Seyffart said he wasn’t surprised by the delay.

Hashdex’s application to convert its Bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund (ETF) into a spot product was also put on hold by the securities regulator on Nov. 15.

BlackRock shared a similar sentiment to Seyffart last week, arguing that the SEC doesn't have a legitimate reason to treat cryptocurrency spot and futures ETF applications differently.

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