Quantitative analyst Plan B is unveiling a possible scenario where leading digital asset Bitcoin (BTC) skyrockets close to $300,000 this year. The pseudonymous analyst took to Twitter to tell his 1.7 million followers that the stock-to-flow (S2F) model is hinting at a big price rise for BTC. Plan B is known for applying the S2F, […]
The post Quant Analyst Plan B Lays Out Huge Bitcoin Rally Scenario – Here are His Targets appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
A report issued by the Huobi Research Institute, the investigative arm of the Asian exchange, examines the effect that upcoming changes of U.S. Federal Reserve policy could have on the price of cryptocurrencies. The report, titled “Taper Landed: The Turning Point of The Cryptocurrency Market is Coming,” states that due to the upcoming tapering, the […]
PlanB’s floor model misses its target in a historic first as fresh bear pressure mounts for Bitcoin price action.
Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to hit the November closing price demanded by one of its best-known models — but its creator is not giving up.
In a Twitter post on Dec. 1, PlanB said that he would give his floor model one more month to prove itself.
BTC/USD should have rounded out November in a “worst-case scenario” of $98,000, but a combination of factors conspired to produce a much lower monthly close.
At close to $57,000, the pair firmly missed its target, this translating to the first such failure of PlanB’s floor model in Bitcoin’s history.
“Floor model first miss (after nailing Aug,Sep,Oct),” he wrote.
“No model is perfect, but this is a big miss and the first in 10y! Outlier/black swan? I will give Floor model 1 more month.”
$98K❌
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) December 1, 2021
Floor model first miss (after nailing Aug,Sep,Oct). No model is perfect, but this is a big miss and the first in 10y! Outlier/black swan? I will give Floor model 1 more month.
S2F model unaffected and on track to $100K.
Watch out for trolls confusing Floor and S2F model! https://t.co/tj6SSwSzKR
Most recently, the floor model correctly predicted the monthly closes for August, September and October, adding to hopes that six figures could enter in December.
As more traders and analysts accept the fact that the 2021 bull market may take longer than anticipated to reach its peak, PlanB reiterated that his other BTC price forecasting models remain intact.
Among them are the popular stock-to-flow-based tools, these calling for at least $100,000 as an average price between now and 2024. The expectation is still that Bitcoin will attract a six-figure price tag before the end of this year.
November’s close coincided with fresh downside pressure on Bitcoin.
Related: Bitcoin correction weakest of 2021 so far as hopes of Santa Claus rally rise
Panic over coronavirus combined with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell admitting that inflation will not be “transitory” in nature.
Sentiment likewise took a hit, dropping from “neutral” to “fear” as per the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.
PlanB’s floor model, meanwhile, has its work cut out to remain a valid price guide — in just four weeks, it predicts a BTC/USD price of $135,000.
This month, the price of bitcoin sank below the $60K zone this month after reaching an all-time high (ATH) at $69K per unit. The pseudonymous bitcoin analyst and the creator of the bitcoin price model called stock-to-flow (S2F), Plan B, called the last three months of bitcoin prices correctly but the analyst’s “worst-case scenario” forecast […]
Hitting $100,000 at the end of this year will spark a major publicity war by large volume investors, Matthew Hyland believes.
Bitcoin (BTC) will invalidate one of its best-known price models this cycle as $1 million becomes a focus for 2025, says well-known analyst Matthew Hyland.
In a series of tweets on Nov. 9, Hyland, who has created a loyal following for his Bitcoin commentary over the years, predicted that only one of the two stock-to-flow models would survive beyond 2022.
With $100,000 still a lofty yet plausible end-of-year price for 2021, attention is turning to what could lie beyond.
For Hyland, new large-volume investors will play a key role in how BTC price action unfolds during the current halving cycle, set to end in 2024.
A mass publicity campaign from these large players, he says, will lure in retail investors — and it will start as soon as $100,000 hits, validating the stock-to-flow (S2F) model created by quant analyst PlanB.
“I believe the S2X model will be the catalyst for the late stages of the euphoric run because when PlanB is proven correct about the S2F model ($100k) then many will believe the S2X model ($288k) will be proven correct too,” he explained.
Thereafter, the stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) model, which calls for an average price of $288,000 this cycle, will form a beacon of hope for hodlers — but BTC/USD will ultimately fail to get there.
“I believe this will be a ‘sell the news’ event, however it will be pushed by the larger players onto the public to provide enough liquidity in order for the large players to sell at the higher prices they want,” he continued.
“$288k will be the target price, it will fall short at $250k.”
With S2FX effectively “invalidated,” the campaign will not stop, however; for 2025, the year after the start of the next halving cycle ostensibly due to see a fresh parabolic run, it will be the $1 million per bitcoin narrative that replicates 2022.
“The S2X ($288k) model will be invalidated but the S2F ($100k) model will remain intact which predicts Bitcoin will reach $1 million dollars by 2025,” Hyland wrote.
“This will also be used by the large players in the years to come!”
Hyland ended by reiterating a January 2022 price prediction, which at current levels seems impossible to comprehend: Bitcoin hitting a quarter of a million dollars.
Related: Bitcoin has further to fall before BTC attacks $70K, says trader
Others are already looking even further than the current cycle, too.
Bobby Lee, former CEO of exchange BTCC and now creator of Bitcoin wallet service Ballet, hinted that the $1 million Bitcoin price is all but guaranteed by the 2030s.
“In 10 years, by end of 2031, Bitcoin will go through another 3 block reward halvings. This will bring the block reward down to just 0.78 BTC each, for a total daily new issuance of just 112.5 BTC. It’ll be very scarce. Hang on and HODL!” he wrote Wednesday.
“By then, million-dollar bitcoin for sure!”
As Cointelegraph reported, by that point, it may even be impractical to measure Bitcoin’s value in fiat currency at all.
On November 8, 2021, the price of bitcoin reached an all-time high of $68,564 per unit at 10:57 p.m. (ET) on Monday evening. Meanwhile, Plan B, the creator of the bitcoin price model called stock-to-flow (S2F), has correctly predicted the last three months of bitcoin prices and recently said that based on the floor model […]
Will Bitcoin break above six figures before Christmas? PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow model suggests $100,000 BTC could be imminent.
Bitcoin (BTC) has broken into new all-time highs, with the asset last changing hands in the mid $67,000-range.
During the final hour of Nov. 8 UTC time, BTC pushed into uncharted prices, with bulls firmly taking control of the markets as price action retested Oct. 20’s previous high of roughly $67,000.
The milestone comes on a historic date for Bitcoin, with analysts noting that Bitcoin’s market cap pushed above $1 million for the first time on Nov. 8, 2010.
Crypto Twitter appears to be rejoicing over the new all-time high, with many onlookers appearing to read the price-high as restoring their faith in the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model from the pseudonymous analyst “PlanB” — which has gained significant popularity due to its eerie accuracy in predicting monthly closing prices for BTC.
The model measures the outstanding reserves of a given asset divided by its rate of annual production. PlanB first published their S2F model in March 2019 in a bid to quantify, measure, and predict the scarcity of Bitcoins, then estimating that Bitcoin would reach a market cap of $1 trillion after the May 2020 halving.
Using S2F, PlanB predicted with startling accuracy that Bitcoin would close August near $47,000 and end September near $43,000, while over-estimating October’s closing price by just 3%.
Looking ahead, S2F suggests that Bitcoin will close November above $98,000 and tag $135,000 by the end of the year, with many punters basing predictions that Bitcoin will trade in the six-figure price range before 2022 on PlanB’s outlook for the markets.
Related: Bitcoin hodlers ‘only halfway’ to selling BTC after new $500K price prediction
PlanB also pioneered the Stock-to-Flow Cross-Asset (S2FX) model in April 2020, which seeks to predict how the BTC markets may respond to changes in S2F dynamics based on how gold and silver have performed historically.
Using the S2FX model, PlanB has speculated that this bull cycle could see Bitcoin trade for $288,000 next year, with the analyst stating the markets will need to see “some real fireworks in 2022” for the projection to play out.
As you know S2F model predicts $100K average for this halving period (and based on floor model we reach $100K this yr). But S2FX model predicts $288K average this cycle (we need some real fireworks in 2022 for that). Let's see where this 2nd leg of the bull market will take us pic.twitter.com/ttiNT5yMKe
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 8, 2021
A recent Twitter poll from PlanB found that of 242,000 respondents, 39.8% believe Bitcoin will top out above $100,000 by Christmas, while 31.4% expect BTC to be trading for $288,000, and 23.8% anticipate the markets will fail to break above six-figures by Dec. 25.
The popular prediction model has been remarkably accurate in the past when it comes to forecasting Bitcoin's bearish and bullish cycles against its rising scarcity.
Bitcoin (BTC) marking a new high of $67,000 last week has opened the possibility to hit $100,000 by the end of this year.
According to PlanB, the creator of the popular stock-to-flow (S2F) model, called Bitcoin's price retracement from the $60,000-level the "2nd leg" of what appeared like a long-term bull market.
#bitcoin bull market, 2nd leg has started pic.twitter.com/N9H2QF7SDe
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 26, 2021
In doing so, the pseudonymous analyst cited S2F that anticipates Bitcoin to continue its leg higher and reach $100,000-135,000 by the end of this year.
The price projection model insists that Bitcoin's value would keep on growing at least until $288,000 a token due to "halving," an event that takes place every four years reducing BTC's issuance rate by half against its 21 million supply cap.
Notably, Bitcoin underwent three halvings so far in 2012, 2016, and 2020.
Each event decreased the cryptocurrency's new supply rate by 50%, which was followed by notable increases in BTC price. For instance, the first two halvings prompted the BTC price to rise by over 10,000% and 2,960%, respectively.
The third halving caused the price to jump from $8,787 to as high as $66,999, a 667.50% increase. So far, S2F has been largely accurate in predicting Bitcoin's price trajectory, as shown in the chart below, leaving bulls with higher hopes that Bitcoin's post-halving rally would have its price cross the $100,000-mark.
PlanB noted earlier this year that Bitcoin would reach $98,000 by November and $135,000 by December of this year, adding that the only thing that would stop the cryptocurrency from hitting a six-digit value is "a black swan event" that the market has not seen in the last decade.
Despite the high price projections, Bitcoin should still see big corrections in the future. PlanB thinks the next crash would wipe at least 80% value off Bitcoin's market cap, based on the same S2F model.
Related: COVID-19 vaccine will spark Bitcoin ‘crash’ — Rich Dad Poor Dad author
"Everybody hopes for the supercycle or the 'hyperbitcoinization' to start right now and that we do not have a big crash after next all-time highs," the analyst told Unchained, adding.
"As much as I would hope that we don’t see that crash, I think we will. I think we’ll be managed by greed right now and fear later on… and see another minus 80% after we top out at a couple of hundred thousand dollars.”
But not everyone thinks the next correction will be as dramatic as the previous ones. Dan Morehead, the CEO of Pantera Capital, said mid-October that the next Bitcoin price drop would be less than 80%, citing a consistent drop in selling sentiment after each halving cycle.
Last week, Bitcoin (BTC) established a new record high at around $67,000 following a 53% rally in October so far. But the new highs prompted profit-taking among traders, resulting in retests of the $60,000 support level.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin price action exactly conforms to PlanB's predictions for a second time, and if history repeats itself, BTC/USD should be at $63,000 by the end of the month.
Bitcoin (BTC) was keen to retain $44,000 on Oct. 1 as the monthly close sparked a late show of strength.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it first returned to the $44,000 mark Thursday, then test lower levels before heading even higher.
While still not tackling resistance at $45,000 and higher, Bitcoin did not disappoint with its end-of-month performance, this almost exactly matching predictions from stock-to-flow model creator PlanB for a second month running.
Aug>47k✅
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) October 1, 2021
Sep>43k✅
Next targets: Oct>63k, Nov>98k, Dec>135k pic.twitter.com/C45nfQkQSC
With $63,000 now planned for October, expectations were high for Bitcoin to make up for lost ground going into Q4.
"September was bad. October is great. November is great. December is great," Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe summarized, telling Twitter followers to "buy the f*cking dip."
Van de Poppe highlighted historical performance across various months each year, something which Cointelegraph previously noted all but consigned September to be a "boring" 30 days.
Others, however, were more cautious. In its latest market update, crypto trading firm QCP Capital said that it would remain cautious in its approach to the market as a whole.
"Overall, we struggle to find any directional conviction amidst the macro and market crosswinds. Our strategy going into Q4 is to remain fairly neutral and nimble," executives summarized.
Macro factors at play were China's reiteration of its crypto crackdown and two United States issues: legislation and the potential approval of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).
On Friday, a vote on the government's infrastructure bill, originally slated to happen Monday, was again delayed after a shutdown later this month was averted in a separate vote.
Altcoins meanwhile saw another 24 hours of modest to flat moves, again headed by Binance Coin (BNB) on 6% daily gains.
Related: Bitcoin ‘FOMO rally’ long overdue that could see BTC price top $200K — Bobby Lee
All of the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap were in the green at the time of writing, however, marking a refreshing contrast to recent action.
Ether (ETH), the largest altcoin, traded above $3,000 on the back of 3% returns.
Bitcoin prices have been better after the second week of September, hovering around $46.5K to $48.5K per unit during the last two days. Meanwhile, bitcoin proponents still believe a significant second-leg up will be happening this year and a recent survey published by Plan B with 123,410 votes shows people believe bitcoin will reach $100K […]
