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What crypto traders can learn from Charlie Munger — even if he hated BTC

Legendary investor Charlie Munger may have once called Bitcoin “rat poison squared” — but that doesn't mean crypto traders should ignore his years of investing wisdom.

Legendary investor and billionaire Charlie Munger, known as the right-hand man of Warren Buffet who helped build investment powerhouse Berkshire Hathaway, has passed away at 99 years of age.

Munger’s family informed Berkshire “that he peacefully died this morning at a California hospital,” according to a company announcement on Nov. 28.

Munger, who served as vice chairman at Buffet’s empire since 1978, accumulated a net worth of $2.6 billion and was routinely praised for adopting a sound investment and stock-picking philosophy throughout his tenure at Berkshire.

While Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies weren’t favored investments for Munger and Buffet, who once referred to Bitcoin (BTC) as “rat poison” and “rat poison squared,” crypto traders could still benefit from Munger’s learnings over his 60 years of investing experience. Here are some approaches to investment that Munger swore by: 

Only invest in what you know

Munger said Berkshire Hathaway would often categorize stocks into one of three baskets when evaluating a potential investment.

“We have three baskets for investing: yes, no, and too tough to understand.”

The latter could explain why Munger and Buffet never invested in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, but the takeaway message is that they avoided investing in what they didn’t know.

Buffet has previously admitted he and Munger — both regarded as tech skeptics — were “too dumb to realize” the potential of Amazon’s e-commerce business in the 1990s and underestimated the company’s founder, Jeff Bezos.

Berkshire didn’t invest in Microsoft or Google either. “We blew it,” Munger once said, reflecting on the firm’s decision not to invest in Google.

Despite that, Berkshire stuck to the sectors it knew inside out, such as the banking and food and beverage sectors, making huge profits from investments in Bank of America, American Express, Coca-Cola Co, and later Apple after initially deciding not to invest in it.

Munger and Buffet also mastered the art of valuation by interrogating a firm’s balance sheet before making an investment decision, which Munger once said is the only intelligent way to invest.

“All intelligent investing is value investing [...] You must value the business in order to value the stock.”

While blockchains and protocols can’t often be valued via a discounted cash flow model or other traditional methods, plenty of insights can be obtained from on-chain data — from the number of daily active users and transaction volumes to total value locked (relative to market cap) and net inflows and outflows, to name a few.

Temperament, not IQ, is a bigger contributor to investment success

Munger was never been one to dive headfirst into a new trend, preferring to stay on the more conservative side of investing.

He’s previously said many “high IQ” people are terrible investors because they have terrible temperaments. “Great investors,” on the other hand, tread with caution and think things through:

"The great investors are always very careful. They think things through. They take their time. They're calm. They're not in a hurry. They don't get excited. They just go after the facts, and they figure out the value. And that's what we try to do."

“You need to keep raw irrational emotion under control,” Munger said in another comment.

Related: Bitcoin is a ‘disgusting’ product that comes ‘out of thin air,’ says Charlie Munger

Having been in the investment arena for over 60 years, Munger says patience is also of great importance when accumulating wealth.

“The big money is not in the buying or the selling, but in the waiting.”

Build conviction and stomach volatility

Munger has seen Berkshire’s investment portfolio dip several times over the decades, such as the Black Monday crash in 1987, the financial crisis in 2007-2008 and most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic.

He once stressed that long-term investors must learn to stand by their investments when unfavorable macroeconomic conditions trigger market downfalls:

"If you're not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century, you're not fit to be a common shareholder and you deserve the mediocre result you're going to get."

“There are going to be periods when there’s a lot of agony and other periods when there’s a boom,” Munger said in a separate comment. “You just have to learn to live through them.”

Munger was born on Jan. 1, 1924 — meaning he passed away 34 days shy of his 100th birthday.

"Berkshire Hathaway could not have been built to its present status without Charlie's inspiration, wisdom and participation," Buffett said in a statement.

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‘Magnificent seven’ tech stocks tumble a whopping $280B as crypto surges

Google's parent company Alphabet was the worst performer on the day, falling 9.5% in a massive $180 billion wipeout.

More than $280 billion has been wiped from the “magnificent seven” tech stocks following the release of several earnings reports on Oct. 25, triggering fears of a looming tech recession.

The so-called “magnificent seven” refers to the top seven blue-chip tech firms including Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, and Tesla — who combine to make up a quarter of the value of the S&P 500 index.

Google parent company Alphabet saw its share price fall over 9%, wiping $180 billion from its market cap and was noted as Google’s worst-performing day since the COVID-19 pandemic hit in March 2020.

Google’s (Alphabet Inc Class A) share price over the last five days. Source: Google Finance

The share prices of Amazon, Nvidia, and Meta fell 5.5%, 4.3%, and 4.2% respectively, according to Y Charts.

Apple and Tesla’s fall in share prices were less severe at 1.35% and 1.9%, while Microsoft was the only one of the seven to buck the trend, with its share price rising 3.1% after reporting better-than-expected growth in its Azure business.

“This is the most widespread tech selloff in months which has resulted in a 5-month low for the S&P 500,” Kobeissi said.

“This is what happens when the few stocks that are holding up the entire market break," the firm said, adding that tech stock investors may be beginning to price-in a recession.

“It seems like buyers are becoming more hesitant as headwinds accumulate,” Kobeissi noted in a follow-up response.

Fears of a “stock market crash” have also been reflected in Google search trends, with the three-word term up 233% over the last week, noted Andrew Lokenauth, a reporter for TheFinanceNewsletter.com.

On the other hand, the cryptocurrency market has been trending upwards amid optimism over possible spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in the United States, with market cap increasing 16.3% to $1.3 trillion over the last week, according to CoinGecko.

Bitcoin (BTC) Ether (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB) and XRP in particular have increased 23.3%, 16.7%, 8% and 15.2% respectively over the last seven days.

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However, the crypto market hasn’t proven to be bulletproof in face of tough macroeconomic conditions.

When the United States real gross domestic product decreased over the first two quarters of 2022, the cryptocurrency market cap fell 61.7% from $2.37 trillion to $907 billion, according to CoinGecko.

Change in the cryptocurrency market cap over the last 60 days. Source: CoinGecko

While analysts speculate whether Bitcoin will decouple further from tech stocks and the S&P 500, past research from the Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute suggests Bitcoin still tends to trade like a “tech stock” over the long term — due to its extreme volatility.

It can, however, serve as a viable hedge against the U.S. dollar, which it’s negatively correlated to, the research firm deduced from an Oct. 2022 report.

Since Sept. 1, Bitcoin has decoupled from the NASDAQ 100, increasing 34% while the NASDAQ has fallen 8.6% over the same time frame.

Meanwhile, the recent investor movements have some observers hinting that the movement could be seen as a “flight to safety” toward Bitcoin — particularly in light of several banking stocks plummeting lately.

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Bitcoin underperforms stocks, gold for the first time since 2018

Bitcoin's yearly losses are similar to high-profile stocks like Tesla and Meta with BTC investors down 70% in 2022.

Gold and stocks have underperformed in 2022, but the year has been difficult for Bitcoin (BTC) investors, in particular.

Worst year for Bitcoin since 2018

Bitcoin price looks prepared to close 2022 down  nearly 70% — its worst year since the crypto crash of 2018.

Bitcoin monthly returns. Source: Coinglass.com

BTC's depressive performance can be explained by factors such as the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates to curb rising inflationary pressures, followed by the collapse of many crypto firms, including Terra, Celsius Network, Three Arrow Capital, FTX, and others.

Some companies had exposure to defunct businesses, typically by holding their native tokens. For instance, Galaxy Digital, a crypto-focused investment firm founded by Mike Novogratz, confirmed a $555 million loss in August due to holding Terra's native asset LUNA, which has crashed 99.99% YTD.

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Meta, Tesla stocks mirror Bitcoin in 2022

The above catalysts have prompted Bitcoin to drop 65% year-to-date (YTD). 

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, the U.S. benchmark S&P 500 has plunged nearly 20% YTD to 3,813 points as of Dec. 28. That puts the index on its biggest calendar-year drop since the 2008 economic crisis. The bloodbath has proven to be worse for the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, down 35% YTD. 

High-profile losers include Amazon, which has crashed approximately 50% YTD, as well as Tesla and Meta , whose stocks have dropped nearly 72.75% and 65%, respectively. As it looks, tech stocks and Bitcoin have suffered similar losses in 2022.

BTC/USD versus IXIC, TSLA, META YTD price performance. Source: TradingView

Just as with Bitcoin, the Fed's rate hikes remains the most-critical factor behind the U.S. stock market's underperformance. But whether a tighter monetary policy would cause an economic recession in 2023 remains to be seen.

This uncertainty has driven capital toward the U.S. dollar for safety, with the U.S. dollar index (DXY), a barometer to gauge the greenback's health versus top foreign currencies, rising nearly 8.5% YTD. 

DXY daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Gold not such a "safe haven"

Spot gold is up 0.14% YTD to nearly $1,800 an ounce, which makes it a better performer than Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market.

XAUUSD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Nevertheless, the year has seen gold deviating from its "safe haven" characteristics in the face of a stronger dollar and rising U.S. bond yields.

For instance, the precious metal is down 22% from its 2022 peak of $2,070, though some losses have been pared as the dollar's uptrend lost momentum in the second half of 2022.

Bitcoin still winning since March 2020

Bitcoin had gained 1,650% after bottoming out in March 2020 below $4,000, boosted by the Fed's quantitative easing policy. Even as of Dec. 28, investors who purchased Bitcoin in March 2020 are sitting on 332% profits. 

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

In comparison, U.S. stock market and gold's pandemic era-rally was small. 

For instance, the Nasdaq Composite index grew up to 143% after bottoming out at 6,631 points in March 2020. So investors who may have gained exposure in the Nasdaq stocks during the easing era are sitting atop a maximum of 56% paper profits as of Dec. 28. 

IXIC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

The same for gold, which rose a mere 43% during the pandemic era and is now up 26.50% when measured from its March 2020 bottom of around $1,450. 

XAUUSD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Worst quarter in 11 years as Bitcoin price and activity plunges

Quarterly returns on Bitcoin haven’t been this bad since it was trading under $20 in the early days of Mt. Gox, but the stock market isn’t faring so hot either.

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen its worst quarterly loss in 11 years with price and activity on the blockchain both plunging over the last three months.

The second quarter ending June 30 saw Bitcoin’s price fall from around $45,000 at the start of the quarter to trade at $19,884 before midnight ET on June 30 according to CoinGecko, representing a 56.2% loss according to crypto analytics platform Coinglass.

It’s the steepest price fall since the third quarter of 2011, when BTC fell from $15.40 to $5.03, a loss of over 67% and worse than the bear markets of 2014 and 2018, when Bitcoin’s price slumped 39.7% and 49.7% in their worst quarters respectively.

The past quarter saw eight weekly red candles in a row for Bitcoin and the month of June saw a draw down of over 37%, the heaviest monthly losses since September 2011 which saw the price fall more thaner 38.5% in the month.

There are also signs that investors are keeping their powder dry — or they've run out of funds — during the bear. Activity on the blockchain is taking a dive with Bitcoin’s spot volume — the total amount of coins transacting on the blockchain — dropped over 58.5% in just nine days according to a June 29 analysis from Arcane Research.

But its not just crypto markets in turmoil. Thanks to sky high inflation and rising interest rates the traditional stock market has also taken a pounding, with some calling it the “worst quarter ever” for stocks.

Charlie Bilello, CEO of Financial advisory firm Compound Capital Advisors shared a chart on Twitter showing the S&P 500 index was down 20.6% in the first half of 2022, the worst start to the year for the index since 1962, when price return was -26.5%.

The difficult economic conditions have seen a swath of staff layoffs from crypto companies including Gemini, Crypto.com and BlockFi. Most recently the crypto and stock trading platform Bitpanda cut its employee count by approximately 277 full-time and part-time employees.

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Crypto is closely tied to the wider tech sector and the tech heavy NASDAQ composite index has fell by almost 22.5% over the second quarter.

A “Tech Layoff Tracker” from technology jobs board TrueUp reveals over 26,000 tech employees across 200 company wide cutbacks just in June alone.

Tech Layoff Tracker. Source: TrueUp

Over the quarter, 307 layoffs impacted over 52,000 staff with one of the largest coming from Elon Musk’s Tesla, with 3,500 impacted. Crypto exchange Coinbase features twice, firstly for its June 2 hiring freeze and job offer rescission of nearly 350 people and second for its June 14 staff layoff, affecting 1,100 individuals.

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3 reasons why Cardano can sink further despite ADA price bouncing 58%

A mix of fundamental and technical indicators suggests more pain for Cardano bulls ahead.

Cardano (ADA) pared a big portion of the weekly losses incurred during this week's crypto market rout. 

ADA's price reached an intraday high of $0.60 on May 13, a day after rebounding from its week-to-date low of $0.38 — a 58% rally.

The huge upside retracement appeared in the wake of similar price action in the crypto market with top cryptos Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) rebounding by 23% and 25.75% since yesterday's lows.

The top ten crypto assets' recovery in the past 24 hours. Source: Messari

But the sharp ADA recovery does not promise an extended upward continuation, at least according to the three factors discussed below.

Stock market crash far from over

First, the price action in the Cardano and similar crypto-assets has been in lockstep with U.S. equities, especially tech stocks.

Notably, the correlation coefficient between ADA and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was 0.93 on May 13, meaning that any major moves in stocks would likely steer Cardano in the same direction. 

The correlation between Cardano and Nasdaq Composite. Source: TradingView

Moreover, the chances of Nasdaq undergoing a sharp recovery are currently slim, as analysts highlight the overstretched valuations of the Big Tech stocks and their probability of crashing further in a higher interest-rate environment.

"The [ax] is hanging, rather, over high-growth tech companies," opines Richard Waters, the Financial Times' West Coast editor, adding:

"This is where valuations became most stretched, and where the market is having the most trouble finding its nadir."

Simply put, Cardano's persistent positive correlation with Nasdaq could result in more sharp declines in the ADA market, at least for the time being.

ADA's "fifth wave missing"

Secondly, another hint of a potential Cardano price decline comes from a technical structure highlighted by Capo of Crypto, an independent market analyst.

The pseudonymous analyst notes that ADA could fall to the $0.30–$0.35 range next, given its possibility to paint the fifth and final wave of a bearish Elliott Wave setup, as shown in the chart below.

ADA/USD two-day price chart featuring bearish Elliott Wave setup. Source: Capo of Crypto/TradingView

The target range coincides with the support area from January 2021 that preceded a 850% bull run.

Descending channel breakdown 

Thirdly, Cardano has been breaking below its multi-month descending channel in another sign of weakness.  

ADA has been trending lower inside a range defined by two falling, parallel trendlines, underscoring traders' current strategy of buying near the lower trendline and selling toward the upper trendline.

But on May 12, ADA/USD broke down below the lower trendline near $0.568, showing that traders ignored the buying opportunity.

Instead, buyers showed up near the $0.378-level to accumulate ADA, leading to the price rebound, as discussed above. However, the trading volume backing the recovery move was lower than during the selloffs, indicating a weakening rebound trend.

ADA/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Simultaneously, the upside retracement move showed signs of further weakness after testing the descending channel's bottom as resistance — a way of confirming the breakdown. If the bulls fail to flip the price ceiling to support, then ADA's likelihood of continuing its prevailing downtrend will be much higher.

Related: Look out below! Ethereum derivatives data hints at further downside from ETH

Conversely, a decisive move above the channel's lower trendline could have ADA then test its upper trendline near $1. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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