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Ethereum faces 6-month lows versus Bitcoin — Will ETH price rebound?

Ethereum price has turned oversold against Bitcoin, raising the possibilities of a rebound in the coming weeks.

Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), continues its multi-month downtrend against Bitcoin (BTC) in March, rising 5.5% versus the latter's 19.5% gains on a month-to-date (MTD) timeframe.

Bitcoin overshadows Ethereum amid banking crisis

As of March 23, the ETH/BTC pair was down about 9% month-to-date (MTD) to 0.0633 while staying on course to record its worst month since September 2022 when it fell 11.75%.

ETH/BTC monthly price chart. Source: TradingView

From a fundamental perspective, traders preferred Bitcoin over Ether, hoping it would protect them from the ongoing banking turmoil in the U.S. and other parts of the world. The narrative gained momentum in recent weeks as Wall Street investors like Cathie Wood see Bitcoin as a potential "flight to safety" asset.

As a result of the growing speculation, Bitcoin outperformed traditional assets after March 8, when signs of trouble appeared at Silicon Valley Bank. In doing so, BTC also fared better than the altcoin market combined, including Ethereum.

Bitcoin, S&P 500, Gold, and Altcoin market performances in March. Source: TradingView 

ETH paints bullish fractal vs. BTC

But from a technical perspective, Ethereum is positioned for a comeback versus Bitcoin.

At least two technical indicators pose the possibility that ETH/BTC will rebound sharply in the coming weeks.

Related: Ethereum price at $1.4K was a bargain, and a rally toward $2K looks like the next step

First, the pair's three-day relative strength index (RSI) has dropped below 30, which technical analysts consider an "oversold" area.

Second, Ether's drop versus Bitcoin has landed its price near its ascending support level (buy zone in the chart below).

ETH/BTC three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

A similar scenario in the June-July 2022 session preceded an approximately 60% rally toward ETH/BTC's descending trendline resistance (sell zone in the chart above). If the fractal plays out, the pair could rally toward the same resistance level by June 2023.

In other words, Ether has a decent chance  at rebounding by more than 15% to around 0.075 BTC. Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline support will invalidate the bullish fractal.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Why is Cardano price up today?

Cardano whales are largely behind ADA's price rally in the last week, helped by Bitcoin's multi-month highs amid the banking crisis and Fed pivot hopes.

Cardano (ADA) rallied to its best price level in a month as cryptocurrency investors prepared for the Federal Reserve's looming interest rate decision.

Fed boosts appetite for cryptos like ADA

On March 22, ADA's price surged by as much as 4.58% to $0.388, its highest level since Feb. 24. This bucked the trend as the total crypto market capitalization underperformed the Cardano token, dropping 0.4% on the same day. 

ADA/USD versus crypto market cap daily performance chart. Source: TradingView 

All eyes are on the Fed meeting on March 22 as chairman Jerome Powell tries to balance his anti-inflation campaign versus a flurry of sudden banking collapses.

The U.S. central bank's intervention to safeguard regional banks with emergency lending measures and hopes that it would be less hawkish in the future has helped top-ranking crypto assets, including Cardano, rally in March.

ADA's price is up by a decent 4% month-to-date (MTD) versus top coin Bitcoin's (BTC) 20% gains in the same period.

Cardano network upgrade, whale activity

Cardano's performance in the past seven days, including March 22 mirrors Bitcoin's, with both rising by over 16%.

ADA's upside momentum coincides with the launch of Cardano's new network upgrade launch on March 17. Dubbed Dynamic peer-to-peer (P2P) networking, the new node version reportedly enables bidirectional usage of block-producing nodes and relay nodes, which may defend against failures or malicious behavior.

ADA s price has rallied 20% since the Cardano's Dynamic P2P update. Source: TradingView

Interestingly, ADA price gains in March appear to have been supported by Cardano whales, according to on-chain data provided by Santiment. 

For instance, the percentage of Cardano tokens held by addresses holding 100 million-1 billion ADA has risen from 6.16% on March 1 to 7.56% on March 22.

On the other hand, the ADA supply held by the 10 million-100 million holder cohort has dropped from 41.32% to 39.67% in the same period.

Cardano supply distribution among addresses holding 1K to 100M ADA. Source: Santiment

This suggests that the 10 million-100 million ADA holders stepped up their buying in March and, as a result, entered the 100 million-1 billion cohort. Similarly, addresses holding anywhere between 1,000 to 10 million ADA tokens increased their supply in March. 

What's ahead for ADA price?

From a technical perspective, ADA price eyes a pullback as it moves near its multi-month descending trendline resistance, as shown in the daily chart below.

ADA/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

In that case, the short-term price target for ADA/USD appears near its ascending trendline support (currently around $0.34), which has been capping its downside attempts since December 2022.

Related: The impact of the Credit Suisse bank crisis on the crypto market

Conversely, a decisive close above the descending trendline resistance could have ADA test its support-turned-resistance area (purple) — the $0.41-0.44 range. This move could also confirm its inverse-head-and-shoulders (IH&S) pattern, as illustrated below.

ADA/USD daily price chart featuring IH&S pattern. Source: TradingView

An IH&S is a bullish reversal pattern, resolved when the price breaks above its neckline support level. As a rule of technical analysis, its upside target is measured after adding the distance between its lowest point and neckline level to the breakout point. 

As a result, ADA's price could rally by almost 100% to $0.741 by June if the IH&S pattern plays out.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Improving Bitcoin NFT marketplace infrastructure sets the stage for ecosystem growth

Bitcoin Price Outlook for March

Bitcoin Price Outlook for MarchThere are only ten days into March, and volatility in the crypto markets has heightened, with both bitcoin and ethereum falling to two-month lows. A collapse in Silvergate Bank was one of the major catalysts leading to this month’s bearish sentiment, which now sees bitcoin trading under $20,000. With over three weeks remaining in March, […]

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Why is XRP price up today?

Can Ripple pull off a win against the SEC? XRP price has been seeing moderate gains despite a general cryptocurrency market pullback.

XRP price extended its gains on March 9, rising around 1.5% to $0.40, despite a general downturn in the cryptocurrency market.  

XRP price four-day winning streak

The rally in the XRP/USD pair started on March 5 with the XRP market capitalization gaining over 10% in the past four days.

XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

In contrast, the entire crypto market's cap has dropped by about 5% in the same period, with top coins Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) losing by 4.5% and 4%, respectively.

Ripple scores early win versus SEC 

XRP's gains appear as investors pin their hopes on Ripple winning its long-running courtroom battle against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

On March 6, U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres issued a ruling on motions filed by Ripple and the SEC to exclude the comments of expert witnesses from the upcoming summary judgment. She approved and denied the motions in part, underscoring no clear winner and loser in the matter.

However, removing the so-called "Expert No. 1," Patrick Doody, who the SEC roped as its primary witness to testify about the perceptions of a reasonable XRP purchaser, led XRP market participants to believe that Ripple may end up winning the lawsuit.

In other words, the SEC's argument that Ripple sold XRP as an unregistered security to gullible investors may fall flat.

As Cointelegraph reported in January, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said that he expects the lawsuit to conclude "in the coming single digit months." 

35% XRP price rally ahead?

From a technical perspective, XRP price may risks declining in the coming weeks as it retests a multi-month descending trendline as resistance. 

XRP/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

The trendline has served as a capitulation point for traders since April 2021, which raises its possibility of sending the XRP price lower in the current scenario. A successful pullback would risks pushing XRP toward $0.30, a more recent support level down 20% from current price levels.

Related: Community urges Coinbase to relist XRP as CEO fights for staking

Conversely, a breakout above the trendline may result in XRP price rallying toward its 200-3D exponential moving average (200-3D EMA; the blue wave) near $0.50, up 35% from current price levels, by April 2023.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Warning sign for ETH price? Ethereum volume profile is down 90% since March 2020

Ether’s 78% price recovery since July 2022 is at risk of exhaustion due to an unconvincing volume profile.

The price of Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has recovered 78% since June 2022. But this doesn’t guarantee further upside, particularly with declining trading volumes suggesting that the risk of a major correction is high. 

Ether volume profile drops 90% since March 2020

A “volume profile” indicator displays trading activity across prices, with the blue indicating buying volume and the yellow indicating sell volume. 

Illustration of a volume profile bar. Source: TradingView

In March 2020, when the market bottomed, Ether’s volume profile on a weekly chart showed about 160 million ETH trades across the $85–$270 price range. At the time, the selling volume was greater than the buying volume by around 4 million ETH.

But Ether buying volume regained momentum after ETH price rallied above $270 in July 2020.

Notably, between July 2020 and November 2020, the Ether volume profile displayed about 64.25 million ETH trades across the $270–$450 range, with buying volume exceeding selling volume by almost 1 million ETH.

ETH/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

The price-volume trend remained largely synchronous with one another until November 2021, when ETH/USD reached its record high at around $4,950. 

In other words, most traders purchased Ether as its price climbed, illustrating their confidence in the longevity of the bullish reversal that followed the March 2020 crash.

However, that confidence is missing in the 2023 Ether market rebound.

2022 ETH price bottom differs from two years ago

At first, the Ether volume profile at the beginning of it price recovery in June 2022 from $900 shows 12.50 million ETH trades, down more than 90% from March 2020.

But despite a 75% price recovery, fewer traders have been participating in Ether’s potential bottom this time around when compared with the beginning of the 2020 bull market.

What’s further concerning is the rising sell-volumes during the current ETH price rebound.

For instance, the red horizontal line in the daily chart below, dubbed the “point of control,” or POC — which represents the area with the most open trading positions — shows a net 8.21 million ETH volume of around $1,550, with sellers exceeding buyers by 170,000 ETH trades.

ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

In other words, ETH’s ongoing price recovery might not have the legs it did in March 2020, especially when coupled with the overall volume profile decline over the past two years.

Most Ether investors are still in profit

More downside cues for Ether come from one of Ethereum’s widely monitored on-chain metrics that tracks the percentage of ETH’s circulating supply in profit.

Related: Ethereum eyes 25% correction in March, but ETH price bulls have a silver lining

As of March 6, about 65% of ETH was bought at a lower price. In other words, investors’ probability of securing profits remains high in the event of a significant price drop.

Ether circulating supply in profit. Source: Glassnode

Therefore, Ether price could see the real bottom if the supply in profit falls below 30% (green zone), which would reflect previous market cycles and the March 2020 bottom, as shown in the chart above.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Improving Bitcoin NFT marketplace infrastructure sets the stage for ecosystem growth

Biggest Movers: LTC Hits 9-Day High, While MATIC Snaps Recent Losses

Biggest Movers: LTC Hits 9-Day High, While MATIC Snaps Recent LossesLitecoin surged to a nine-day high to start the month, breaking out of a recent resistance point in the process. The token climbed past the $95.00 level, as bulls made a run for the $100.00 mark. Polygon also snapped a recent losing streak, by bouncing from a key support point. Litecoin (LTC) Litecoin (LTC) climbed […]

Improving Bitcoin NFT marketplace infrastructure sets the stage for ecosystem growth

Bitcoin, Ethereum Technical Analysis: BTC Rebounds, Following Decline in US Consumer Confidence 

Bitcoin, Ethereum Technical Analysis: BTC Rebounds, Following Decline in US Consumer Confidence Bitcoin rebounded on March 1, as markets reacted to the latest consumer confidence report from the United States. Confidence slipped last month, which appears to be a sign that higher rates are starting to take effect. Ethereum also moved higher on Wednesday, as prices moved above $1.650. Bitcoin Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded on Wednesday, which comes […]

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‘Stupid money’ Ethereum investor loses over $2M in six months — 3 lessons to learn

How can traders learn from common investment mistakes and reduce their market risks accordingly?

An anonymous Ethereum investor has lost more than $2 million trading Ether (ETH) since Sep. 9, 2022, on-chain data shows.

Buying Ethereum high, selling low

Spotted by on-chain monitoring resource Lookonchain, the "stupid money" trader spent $12.5 million in stablecoins to buy 7,135 ETH after it rallied 10% to $1,790 in September 2022. But a subsequent correction forced the trader to sell the entire stash for $10.51 million. 

Ethereum investor's transaction history from September 2022. Source: Lookonchain

As a result, the trader lost nearly $1.75 million. Interestingly, waiting and selling at today's price would have resulted in a smaller loss of $1.14 million.

The investor's trades reemerged in February as ETH price had risen by approximately 10%. Data shows that $7.65 million in ETH was acquired on Feb. 16, only to sell it eight hours later as ETH price dropped, resulting in a loss of another $324,000.

Ethereum investor's transaction history from February 2023. Source: Lookonchain

3 Ethereum investment lessons to learn

Traders can use such examples to learn from others' mistakes and reduce their investment risks with proven strategies. Let's take a look at some of the most basic tools that can help reduce losses. 

Don't rely on just one fundamental

The investor first traded stablecoins for ETH on Sep. 12, just three days before long-awaited transition from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS) via the Merge upgrade.

The Merge, however, turned out to be a "sell-the-news" event. Thus, going extremely bullish on Ether based on one strong fundamental was a poor decision.

Moreover, going all in while relying on one indicator, particularly a widely-anticipated news event, is often a losing strategy, which is why traders should consider multiple factors before making a decision. 

Ethereum fund outflows picked momentum ahead of the Merge. Source: CoinShares

For instance, one such metric was institutional flows. Ether investment funds suffered outflows worth $61.6 million a week before the Merge, according to CoinShares' weekly report, suggesting that "smart money" was leaning bearish. 

Hedge with put options

Hedging with options in Ether trading enables investors to purchase options contracts opposite their current open positions. Therefore, investors could mitigate risk by opening a put option contract against their bullish spot.

A put option gives a holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell ETH at a  predetermined price on or before a particular date. So, if the spot Ether price drops, the investor could sell the asset at a pre-agreed price, thus protecting himself from losses in ETH's value.

Don't go all-in; check momentum

Do not put all your eggs in one basket regardless of how much capital you can throw around.

Instead, entering position in increments could be a safer strategy while keeping some funds on the sidelines. Thus, traders can buy ETH during a short or long term bull run but can spare some capital to buy during potential dips, while relying on multiple technical indicators for cues.

For instance, momentum oscillators like the relative strength index (RSI) reveals whether Ether is oversold or overbought on specific timeframes. So a strategy of going long when the RSI reading is close or above the 70 and forming a lower high has a high chance of failure.

Related: A beginner’s guide to cryptocurrency trading strategies

The Ethereum daily chart below shows the two instances when the abovementioned investor bought ETH alongside the RSI forming a lower high.

ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Ultimately, traders' mistakes can serve as opportunities to learn what works for an investor and what doesn't. The main takeaway is that investors should enter a market with a definite plan based on their own analysis and risk appetite. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin can hit $40K before BTC price sees ‘harsh correction’ — analyst

BTC price action heads lower on the day, but strength is still there beyond the short term, says Michaël van de Poppe.

Bitcoin (BTC) faced selling pressure at the Feb. 21 Wall Street open as United States' stock markets opened down.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

BTC price skids lower with US stocks

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD dipping to daily lows of $24,324 on Bitstamp.

Bearish signals were already in for the pair after it saw swift rejection during its latest attempt to flip $25,000 to support.

Amid suspicions over whale movements on exchanges, monitoring resource Material Indicators concluded that the 200-week moving average (MA) at $25,100 needed to become support for Bitcoin to change its long-term trend.

"IMO, until we see full candles above the 200 WMA this is still distribution in a bear market rally, and with the bid wall above $24k, shorting from this level has about as much short term risk as longing," it wrote in part of comments in its latest Twitter update.

An accompanying chart of the Binance order book showed liquidity moving closer to spot price prior to the Wall Street open.

BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators/ Twitter

Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, meanwhile had a bearish prognosis for the S&P 500 in particular, with risk asset performance still liable to weigh on crypto.

"The S&P 500 is gapping lower, trading decisively below my $4,080 line in the sand," he summarized alongside a chart on the day.

"A retest of the 200-day moving average cloud is likely, which will be a vital support level."
S&P 500 annotated chart. Source: Caleb Franzen/ Twitter

The S&P 500 was down 1.3% at the time of writing, while the Nasdaq Composite Index was 1.7% lower.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY), despite being broadly inversely correlated with stocks and crypto, also took a hit at the open, dropping to 103.77 before rebounding.

U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView

"USD higher highs and lows have held through much of Feb. 103.82 as support in DXY, current higher-low," part of commentary from trader and stategist James Stanley read.

Stanley additionally noted the minutes from the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as a potential market catalyst. Due on Feb. 22, the minutes reflect the February FOMC meeting, as a result of which the Fed raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points.

BTC price corrections "relatively shallow"

Adopting an optimistic short-term view, meanwhile, Cointelegraph contributor Michaël van de Poppe, CEO and founder of trading firm Eight, was confident that the current dip would be a temporary one.

Related: Bitcoin active addresses ‘concern’ analyst despite 50% BTC price gains

"Markets correcting, which is great for people who look for entry points. Might go down a bit more from here before we'll turn around. Week of consolidating before continuation," he told Twitter followers.

"FOMC minutes tomorrow as well. Remember, investment wise, still super cheap for Bitcoin."

Chart analysis from Van de Poppe showed BTC price action acting within a narrowing wedge construction, with a key area of support below stretching to $22,500.

The day prior, his longer-term forecast called for higher highs before a more substantial correction, this nonetheless still apt to take Bitcoin back to $20,000.

"Corrections remain to be relatively shallow. I think that we'll continue the run towards $35-40K before we'll have a harsh correction, maybe even to $20-25K. Maximize profits, start allocating towards $USDT the higher we come, buy on the correction in second half of 2023," he wrote.

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Improving Bitcoin NFT marketplace infrastructure sets the stage for ecosystem growth

Ethereum’s deflation accelerates as Shanghai upgrade looms — Can ETH price avoid a 30% drop?

A deflationary Ethereum supply does not necessarily mean a bullish market for ETH, at least in the near term.

The price of Ethereum's native token, Ether (ETH), has surged by more than 40% year-to-date to around $1,750, the highest level in seven months. However, ETH price is not out of the woods yet despite several bullish cues such as the Shanghai upgrade in the pipeline. 

Ethereum price bull trap?

Ether's rise has appeared primarily in the wake of similar upside moves elsewhere in the crypto market, responding to lowering inflation that reduces the Federal Reserve's likelihood of raising interest rates aggressively.

At the same time, warnings about an imminent bull trap in the risky markets have emerged, which may wipe out their recent profits. Ethereu, due to its long-term correlation with stocks and Bitcoin, faces similar risks.

Let's take a closer look at  several potential bullish and bearish catalysts for the price of Ethereum below.

ETH becomes most deflationary since Merge

The issuance rate of Ether has dropped to its lowest level since the network's transition to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) via "the Merge" in September. 

On Feb. 20, Ether's annual supply since the Merge shrunk to -0.056%. In other words, the Ethereum network had been minting fewer ETH tokens than were removed from the supply in the past five months.

Ether supply since Merge. Source: Ultrasound Money

Investors typically perceive a cryptocurrency with a fixed supply or deflationary issuance rate as bullish in the longer term. 

Ethereum's supply is currently around 120.50 million, but there is technically no max supply. The London hard fork in August 2021, however, introduced a fee-burning mechanism that added deflationary properties to Ether's tokenomics.

As a result of this upgrade, the higher the Ethereum network's transaction fees at any given time, the more Ether will be "burned" or removed from the supply forever.

Interestingly, Ethereum's median gas price has rebounded to a seven-month high of 27.13 Gwei (the smallest ETH unit) in the week ending Feb. 17.

Ethereum 7-day median transaction gas price. Source: Glassnode 

Shanghai hard fork

ETH demand must not drop against a deflationary supply rate for the price to climb. One potential bullish catalyst in the pipeline for Ethereum is its upcoming network upgrade dubbed Shanghai, slated for mid-March.

The Shanghai hard fork enables users who have locked their Ether into Ethereum's PoS smart contract to withdraw their assets finally. This increased liquidity could encourage more people to hold and stake Ether tokens, according to Kennan Mell, an independent market analyst.

In his SeekingAlpha note, Mell argues:

"It's possible that the successful implementation of staking withdrawals will boost Ethereum's price as new investors decide to buy in right afterward, either because they were waiting to buy until the network successfully went through a risky hard fork to implement withdrawals or because they are lured by a more liquid staking yield."

Meanwhile, the total value locked in the Ethereum PoS contract continues to rise to new record highs, with the latest data showing deposits worth nearly 16.63 million ETH.

Ethereum 2.0 total value staked. Source: Glassnode

Crypto staking crackdown

The above-mentioned potential bullish catalysts for ETH price, however, could be offset by regulatory crackdowns and unfavorable technicals in the near term. 

In February, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) fined Kraken, a popular crypto exchange, $30 million for not registering its staking-as-a-service program, which includes the option of Ethereum staking.

Related: Ethereum's Shanghai fork is coming, but it doesn't mean investors should dump ETH

Coinbase exchange CEO Brian Armstrong also warned that the SEC might ban crypto staking services for retail investors altogether. If true, such a prohibition could hurt Ether's demand among U.S. investors.

ETH price hits bearish inflection level

From a technical perspective, Ether price is currently testing a key resistance confluence for a potential pullback.

Notably, the confluence comprises a multi-month descending trendline resistance and a 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the red wave), as shown below.

ETH/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

A pullback from the confluence could have ETH's price test the 200-week EMA (the blue wave) near $1,550 as its short-term downside target.

Furthermore, an extended correction could push the price toward the black ascending trendline support near $1,200 by March 2023, down about 30% from the current levels.

Conversely, a decisive breakout above the descending trendline resistance could activate a bullish reversal setup toward the $2,000-$2,500 area. 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Improving Bitcoin NFT marketplace infrastructure sets the stage for ecosystem growth