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Bitcoin underperforms stocks, gold for the first time since 2018

Bitcoin's yearly losses are similar to high-profile stocks like Tesla and Meta with BTC investors down 70% in 2022.

Gold and stocks have underperformed in 2022, but the year has been difficult for Bitcoin (BTC) investors, in particular.

Worst year for Bitcoin since 2018

Bitcoin price looks prepared to close 2022 down  nearly 70% — its worst year since the crypto crash of 2018.

Bitcoin monthly returns. Source: Coinglass.com

BTC's depressive performance can be explained by factors such as the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates to curb rising inflationary pressures, followed by the collapse of many crypto firms, including Terra, Celsius Network, Three Arrow Capital, FTX, and others.

Some companies had exposure to defunct businesses, typically by holding their native tokens. For instance, Galaxy Digital, a crypto-focused investment firm founded by Mike Novogratz, confirmed a $555 million loss in August due to holding Terra's native asset LUNA, which has crashed 99.99% YTD.

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Meta, Tesla stocks mirror Bitcoin in 2022

The above catalysts have prompted Bitcoin to drop 65% year-to-date (YTD). 

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, the U.S. benchmark S&P 500 has plunged nearly 20% YTD to 3,813 points as of Dec. 28. That puts the index on its biggest calendar-year drop since the 2008 economic crisis. The bloodbath has proven to be worse for the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, down 35% YTD. 

High-profile losers include Amazon, which has crashed approximately 50% YTD, as well as Tesla and Meta , whose stocks have dropped nearly 72.75% and 65%, respectively. As it looks, tech stocks and Bitcoin have suffered similar losses in 2022.

BTC/USD versus IXIC, TSLA, META YTD price performance. Source: TradingView

Just as with Bitcoin, the Fed's rate hikes remains the most-critical factor behind the U.S. stock market's underperformance. But whether a tighter monetary policy would cause an economic recession in 2023 remains to be seen.

This uncertainty has driven capital toward the U.S. dollar for safety, with the U.S. dollar index (DXY), a barometer to gauge the greenback's health versus top foreign currencies, rising nearly 8.5% YTD. 

DXY daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Gold not such a "safe haven"

Spot gold is up 0.14% YTD to nearly $1,800 an ounce, which makes it a better performer than Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market.

XAUUSD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Nevertheless, the year has seen gold deviating from its "safe haven" characteristics in the face of a stronger dollar and rising U.S. bond yields.

For instance, the precious metal is down 22% from its 2022 peak of $2,070, though some losses have been pared as the dollar's uptrend lost momentum in the second half of 2022.

Bitcoin still winning since March 2020

Bitcoin had gained 1,650% after bottoming out in March 2020 below $4,000, boosted by the Fed's quantitative easing policy. Even as of Dec. 28, investors who purchased Bitcoin in March 2020 are sitting on 332% profits. 

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

In comparison, U.S. stock market and gold's pandemic era-rally was small. 

For instance, the Nasdaq Composite index grew up to 143% after bottoming out at 6,631 points in March 2020. So investors who may have gained exposure in the Nasdaq stocks during the easing era are sitting atop a maximum of 56% paper profits as of Dec. 28. 

IXIC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

The same for gold, which rose a mere 43% during the pandemic era and is now up 26.50% when measured from its March 2020 bottom of around $1,450. 

XAUUSD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin investors ‘buy the dip’ as BTC nears $40K, gaining 16% in less than 24 hours

While the number of Bitcoin addresses holding small quantities of BTC continues to increase.

Buyers returned to the Bitcoin (BTC) market, locating interim upside opportunities as the price rebounded to nearly $40,000 on Feb. 25, gaining 16% in less than 24 hours. 

Investors bulk up Bitcoin holdings

The number of Bitcoin addresses with a balance greater than 0.01 BTC (~$400) reached a record high of 9.51 million, the latest data from CoinMetrics shows. Meanwhile, the number of addresses that hold at least 0.1 BTC (~$3,850) also reached 3.34 million for the first time in history.

Bitcoin addresses with balance greater than 0.1 BTC. Source: CoinMetrics, Messari

On the whole, Bitcoin's network added a little over 24,500 addresses with a non-zero balance on Thursday, coinciding with BTC's choppy price moves — from around $37,200 to below $34,500, followed by a recovery toward $40,000.

Bitcoin on-chain accumulation trends. Source: Ecoinometrics

Data resource Ecoinometrics divided the addresses into two groups: one that holds less than 1 BTC, and the other that holds anywhere between 1,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC, noting that both groups have been "buying the Bitcoin dip," saying.

"Probably a smart move if you have a long term investment horizon." 
BTC/USD hourly price chart. Source: TradingView

As Ukraine crisis unfolds...

The prospects of higher inflation may also be rising with the Ukraine-Russia conflict leading to higher commodity prices globally despite the U.S. Federal Reserve's preparing to tighten policy next month.

But Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, stated that the central bank officials would not pursue its aggressive rate-hiking plans amid the worsening geopolitical outlook.

"This takes the 50 basis point [rate increase] completely off the table," he told CNBC, adding:

"It takes the 8-9 hikes people were talking about for this year off the table. I don't think the U.S. economy could accommodate such slamming of the brakes of monetary policy. It means the Fed is going to have to be even more careful and tolerate inflation."

Michael Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy, commented on El-Erian's Fed outlook, adding that the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict could create inflation and "make Bitcoin compelling." 

Saylor's firm holds over 125,000 BTC worth circa $4.84 billion in its treasury, as per Bitcoin Treasuries.

Bitcoin below $30K next?

Despite Saylor's upside outlook, which appeared after Bitcoin's intraday rebound towards $40,000, the market's Fear and Greed Index score came out to be 27, showing uneasiness among investors/traders for the near term.

Bitcoin fear and greed index. Source: Alternative.me

Nick, an analyst at Ecoinometrics, also noted that Bitcoin's price could undergo a price correction below $30,000 despite having a strong upside outlook in the long term.

The reason cited is the imbalance between bearish and bullish positions on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's (CME) Bitcoin options market, skewed more towards the former.

Related: Ukraine Bitcoin exchange volume spikes 200% as Russia war sparks currency concerns

"The puts to calls ratio on the CME Bitcoin options market remains at three puts for every call," he wrote in a report published Feb. 23, adding that "50% of the puts are on strikes" are now below $30,000.

"So that gives you an idea on what the market expects in the short term."

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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