A widely-followed crypto analyst is looking at Bitcoin (BTC) against the US Dollar Index (DXY) while waiting for two popular altcoins to drop in price. In a new tweet, Michaël van de Poppe tells his 588,800 followers that BTC needs to break through $40,000 to continue moving up. “To me, this is still the area to break on Bitcoin. […]
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A closely followed crypto analyst says that three indicators with a historical record of signaling BItcoin bull runs are all flashing green at the same time. The pseudonymous analyst known as TechDev tells his 388,000 Twitter followers that the Nasdaq’s relative strength index (RSI), plus Bitcoin’s vortex cross indicator and its 1-year HODL (hold on […]
The post Three Indicators With Historic Track Record for Calling Bitcoin (BTC) Rallies Flash Bullish: Crypto Analyst appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
Popular crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe is predicting rallies in XRP and Litecoin (LTC) and says one key metric will spark the next big bull phase of the digital asset markets. The analyst tells his 584,000 Twitter followers that XRP appears to be compressing in its Bitcoin pair (XRP/BTC), coiling up for a breakout. […]
The post Top Analyst Says Big Run Coming for XRP and Litecoin, Predicts One Metric Will Trigger Next Crypto Bull Cycle appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
A leading crypto analyst says Tether (USDT) dominance and the US dollar index (DXY) are flashing major bullish signs for crypto. In a new tweet, Justin Bennett shows his 99,000 followers a chart depicting the relative market dominance of USDT. Bennett says USDT’s recent drop relative market dominance is bullish for cryptos. “First lower low from USDT.D […]
The post Top Crypto Analyst Says Pair of Indicators Are Bullish for Crypto Markets, Examines Bitcoin (BTC) and VeChain (VET) appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
Cryptocurrency analyst Justin Bennett says he expects inflation to taper off but not before investors who own risk assets see their portfolios rise in value once more. Bennett tells his 98,300 Twitter followers that cryptocurrencies, equities and commodities are likely to surge, but the rally won’t last forever. “I continue to think we see one […]
The post Inflation To Push Bitcoin (BTC) and Risk Assets on One Last Leg Higher This Year: Crypto Analyst Justin Bennett appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
The U.S. dollar index reached its lowest levels in three weeks on Oct. 19, triggering a rising wedge pattern.
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) could continue its slide in Q4, according to a classic technical setup known as a “rising wedge.” The greenback’s bearish prospects may boost Bitcoin’s (BTC) price to new all-time highs as it holds above $62,000.
Rising wedges are bearish reversal patterns that begin wide at the bottom but contract as the price increases. As a result, the trading range narrows, which makes the rally unconvincing. That typically prompts the price to break below the wedge’s support line and later fall by as much as the maximum distance between the pattern’s trendlines.
The DXY has been forming a similar price structure since August. Moreover, the index’s decline this week had it break below the wedge’s support line, therefore triggering a bearish setup toward 92.416, down about 1.75% below the level of breakout (around 93.98).
A week ago, DXY reached a one-year high of 94.563, reaping the benefits of stagflation fears and the Federal Reserve’s decision to unwind its $120-billion-a-month asset purchase program in November, followed by interest rate increases next year.
But the index dropped to a three-week low on Oct. 19, underscoring that money markets have priced in the Fed’s tapering decision. Instead, their focus has shifted toward policy normalization elsewhere, including the United Kingdom, where analysts have forecasted rate hikes worth 35 basis points by the end of this year.
Bitcoin price found support from the weaker dollar this week, in addition to optimism about the debut of the first exchange-traded fund (ETF) tied to BTC futures on the New York Stock Exchange.
BTC/USD has rallied by over 40% month-to-date to hit a five-month high of $62,987 on Oct. 19. A minor correction ensued, but Bitcoin held $62,000 as its interim support against a weakening dollar sentiment.
Technically, Bitcoin reached the bullish exhaustion level of its prevailing ascending channel range. With its relative strength index (RSI) also overbought with a reading above 70 on the daily timeframe, the cryptocurrency could undergo an interim price correction with a short-term support target near $60,000.
But long term, multiple analysts anticipate Bitcoin’s price to hit $100,000.
Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, said in a note on Oct. 18 that ETFs based on Bitcoin futures would together attract more than $50 billion in inflows in the first year, adding that BTC could conceivably rise to $168,000 in response.
Related: BTC price is up 50% since China ‘selflessly’ banned Bitcoin mining
Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, noted that Bitcoin would become a six-figure asset by 2023, citing Metcalfe’s law, which measures a network’s value based on its growth rate.
“Other technology innovations, and even, like, a stock like Apple — not that I’m a security analyst — has gone through that same process, where its sales go up 38-fold over 10, 20 years, and its market value goes up by 900-fold,” Timmer told Yahoo Finance, adding:
“So it’s an exponential increase. And based on those metrics, by 2023, my models show $100,000.”
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Rising jobless claims in the U.S. sparked selloffs in the dollar market. On the other hand, Bitcoin held onto its intraday gains.
Bitcoin (BTC) looks to reclaim $45,000 on Oct. 1 as the U.S dollar retreated lower after hitting its one-year high. Bitcoin's tight inverse correlation with the greenback over the past month suggests that a weakening dollar could push BTC price even higher in the coming sessions.
In detail, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six foreign currencies, including euro and sterling, hit $94.50 Thursday for the first time since Sept. 28, 2020. But it retreated on news of rising U.S. jobless claims against the forecasts of a decline.
The labor data released Thursday showed that the number of jobless claims rose to 362,000 last week against 351,000 a week earlier and against the economists' projection of 333,000. As a result, the number of reapplications got stuck around 2.8 million for five weeks in a row.
For the markets, this could be the news that the Federal Reserve might delay tapering its $120 billion asset purchasing program from November to a later month, thus keeping interest rates lower and the dollar's renewed strength temporary.
The index was trading at 94.263 at the time of this writing.
Technicals also showed the greenback facing the prospect of a correction ahead. For example, independent market analyst TradingShot spotted the dollar index inside a Megaphone pattern, about to get topped out to pursue a correction in the coming sessions, as shown in the chart below.
"Based on the 1D relative strength index (RSI), it appears that DXY is right at the top of the formation as [it was] on Aug 15, 2018," TradingShot wrote.
"DXY is building up a strong pull-back to the bottom of the Megaphone."
Meanwhile, a recent bout of selling in the Bitcoin market lately had it paint a Falling Wedge pattern. In detail, Falling Wedges appear when the price trends lower inside a channel comprising of two diverging, descending trendlines.
Traditional analysts see the Falling Wedge pattern as a bullish reversal indicator, noting that a break above its upper trendline moves the price higher by as much as the maximum distance between the Wedge's trendlines.
The structure's maximum height is roughly $10,000. As a result, the Bitcoin price can at least retest $50,000 should the Wedge breakout play out as intended.
On the other hand, the underwhelming jobs report could boost investors' interim appetite for Bitcoin.
Related: Bitcoin’s sharp fall from $50K linked to stronger US dollar, gold — Correlation shows
Vasja Zupan, president of Matrix Exchange, told Cointelegraph that the dollar's weakness and devaluation against rising inflation would continue to make investors put their excess cash in crypto markets. He said:
"Bitcoin in its core proposition has an integrated hedge against inflation and therefore persistently higher inflation in the U.S. can only push it upwards. Therefore, in the long term, the dollar's worth will continue to be lesser than Bitcoin.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
The sell-off in the Bitcoin market, in particular, intensified due to excessively leveraged bullish bets.
Bitcoin (BTC) and spot gold hovered below their key psychological levels on Wednesday as a stronger United States dollar weighed on investors’ appetite for hedging assets.
The BTC/USD exchange rate dropped 5.27% to its intraday low of $44,423 but recovered a portion of those losses after reclaiming the $45,000–46,000 range as support. The pair’s recovery also came as an extension to its ongoing rebound from $42,830, a level it reached on Tuesday after falling by more than 18% in the session.
Bitcoin’s massive sell-off coincided with a strikingly similar but dwarfed decline in the rivaling gold market. In detail, the precious metal suffered its worst daily drop in a month on Tuesday as spot XAU/USD rates fell below $1,800 following a minus 1.37% intraday move.
The large red hourly candle on gold and Bitcoin charts appeared between 10:00 and 11:00 UTC. However, the precious metal consolidated sideways after the big decline in contrast to Bitcoin that extended its downtrend.
In detail, the cryptocurrency crumbled under the weight of excessively leveraged bullish bets. Bybt data showed that about $3.68 billion worth of longs in the Bitcoin options market got liquidated in the last 24 hours, marking it the largest liquidation since June.
Automated liquidations caused additional selloffs in the Bitcoin market, as traders were forced to sell their BTC holdings to cover their margin calls.
Worth noting, the sudden drop in Bitcoin and gold prices coincided with a sharp spike in the U.S. dollar index (DXY).
The index, which measures the dollar’s strength against a basket of top national currencies, rose by 0.41% to 92.53 on Tuesday and continued climbing in the ongoing session to settle its intraday high at 92.73.
DXY moved away from its one-month low, benefiting from the rising U.S. Treasury yields ahead of the government debt sale this week, including $58 billion in three-year notes, $38 billion in 10-year notes, and $24 billion in 30-year bonds.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield, which was around 1.32% after Friday’s weak non-farm payroll report, rose to 1.377% on Tuesday. At the time of writing, it stands at 1.351%.
Rising yields typically compete for haven flows against Bitcoin and gold. But despite the latest climb, they remain below July’s 5.4% core inflation, thus posing non-yielding safe havens as more attractive bets against rising consumer prices.
But with the Federal Reserve planning to start winding down its $120-billion-a-month asset purchasing facility at the end of this year, some analysts believe that bond yields will keep on recovering. In turn, they will provide the dollar a bullish backstop.
Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto, told CNBC:
“The Federal Reserve we think is still likely to move toward tapering by the end of this year, the U.S. economy is likely to perform relatively strongly, so our view is minor dollar dips, minor dollar weakness is probably a buying opportunity.”
Related: Bitcoin price to hit $100K in 2021 or early 2022: Standard Chartered
Meanwhile, the rising COVID-19 Delta variant threatens to dampen recovery prospects. In turn, it could force the Fed to sustain its expensive bond-buying program, thus keeping a lid on yields and the dollar alike.
As a result, the outlook for Bitcoin and gold looks mixed. The Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting later this month expects to shed more light on the taper timeline.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin is in wait-and-see mode as the dollar trades near two-month lows on warnings that the Fed could continue its stimulus programs.
A recent run-down in the United States Dollar Index (DXY) stopped midway as investors awaited U.S. job data for a guide on the viewpoint for interest rates. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) moved inversely to the greenback.
The DXY rose to its intraday high of 92.195 on Wednesday, up 0.45% from its Friday low of 91.782. The move upside took the index back above its 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the pink tide in the chart below), at 92.001.
The wave was instrumental in protecting the index from aggressive declines in June, serving as support. Meanwhile, a break above the 200-day EMA also prompted traders to test the DXY’s descending trendline resistance. Since then, the DXY has been fluctuating between the two levels.
The descending trendline is a part of an inverse head-and-shoulder pattern, as Cointelegraph reported mid-July. As illustrated in the chart above, the setup projects the DXY at or above 97 following a successful upside breakout.
Analysts interpret inverse head and shoulders as bullish patterns. In detail, they appear when the price forms three troughs in a row, with the middle one (head) larger than the other two (shoulders). Meanwhile, the troughs hang by a price ceiling, known as the neckline.
A successful breakout above the neckline tends to shift the profit target at a distance equal to the gap between the neckline and the head’s bottom. With the DXY checking all the boxes so far, it appears to be looking for a breakout move toward 97.
The latest bounce in the U.S. dollar’s value appeared ahead of key U.S. jobs data.
In detail, the DXY has lost some ground against rival fiat currencies in the past two weeks. That is due to warnings from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
The central banker said last week, after concluding the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting, that the Fed might need to keep its stimulus programs in place because of uncertainties in the jobs market.
The tone of the incoming ADP employment survey on Wednesday, therefore, seems critical. First, the docket offers a preview of the private sector’s job growth. It expects to show that the U.S. economy has added about 695,000 jobs in July, around 0.43% higher than June.
If the prediction is accurate, it may prompt the Fed to pursue tapering earlier than anticipated, which could boost the dollar’s value, as noted in the Institute for Supply Management survey earlier this week.
The ADP report will follow up with the non-farm payroll data on Friday.
Bitcoin (BTC) closed in the red for the fourth day in a row on Tuesday as investors preferred to stay on the sidelines against a bouncing dollar and ahead of the aforementioned U.S. jobs data.
On Wednesday, the BTC/USD exchange rate reached a seven-day low of $37,509, down 1.11% intraday and 11.96% from its session top of $42,605.
The pair’s drop appeared as regulators attempted to increase their scrutiny on the crypto sector as a whole. That included U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler’s request to Congress that lawmakers grant his agency “additional powers” to protect investors from the “Wild West” crypto markets.
“There’s a great deal of hype and spin about how crypto assets work,” Gensler said at the Aspen Security Forum on Tuesday.
“In many cases, investors aren’t able to get rigorous, balanced and complete information . . . If we don’t address these issues, I worry a lot of people will be hurt.”
Related: Binance banned in Malaysia, given 14 days notice to shut down operations
The statements followed Congress’ proposal to raise $30 billion annually by taxing the regional cryptocurrency industry.
The latest draft of the infrastructure bill includes raising $30B a year from cracking down on #crypto tax evasion. @robtfrank reports on how that could happen: #btc #bitcoin pic.twitter.com/p2YNNuy1gL
— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) August 2, 2021
But the short-term shocks have not deterred analysts from sharing bold upside outlooks for Bitcoin.
On-chain data researcher Willy Woo projected the benchmark crypto at $50,000–$65,000 in the coming sessions, noting that all investor cohorts — big and small — have been accumulating it during the recent drop. Excerpts from his newsletter:
“Strong-handed investors have been buying the accumulation band for 2 months. Presently they are taking the opportunity to buy large quantities below $42k while price action is temporarily held down against a technical resistance band.”
Additionally, Anthony Pompliano of Pomp Investments matched the bullish undertones of Woo’s analysis, noting that Bitcoin’s “sound money principles” against the Fed’s pro-inflation monetary policies have made it a better hedge than gold among tech-savvy investors.
“It is too early to state the narrative to be dead factually, but one of my outlier expectations for the 2020s is that gold’s market cap will materially shrink as investors leave the analog store of value for the digital version,” wrote Pompliano in a note to clients.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
The analyst also treats the latest crypto ban in China as bullish for Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar.
Bitcoin (BTC) has better probability of recovering back to $60,000 than to break below its current support level of $30,000 and target $20,000, believes Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.
A screenshot from McGlone's latest analysis on the flagship cryptocurrency, first shared by Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, shows him comparing Bitcoin's ongoing price action with the "too-cold" period of the 2018-19 trading session.
In detail, the BTC/USD exchange rate entered a prolonged consolidation period near $4,000 following an 80%-plus crash in 2018, but a sudden run-up in 2019 sent its prices to as high as $14,000 on some exchanges.
McGlone, who's known for his previous bullish calls on Bitcoin, noted that BTC, which has been consolidating near $30,000 since May 2021, could post a similarly surprising rally while aiming to hit a refreshed resistance target near $60,000.
"The more tactical-trading-oriented bears seem to proliferate when Bitcoin sustains at about 30% threshold below its 20-week moving average, allowing the buy-and-hold types time to accumulate," the strategist wrote.
Bitcoin's bearish and bullish cycles appear to wobble around three key moving average indicators. They are the 20-week exponential moving average (20-week EMA; the green wave), which serves as interim support/resistance, the 50-week simple moving average (50-week SMA; the blue wave), and the 200-week simple moving average (20-week SMA; the orange wave).
During bull trends, Bitcoin prices typically stay above the three moving averages. Meanwhile, bear trends see the cryptocurrency prices closing below the 20-week EMA and the 50-week SMA, as shown in the chart above.
The 200-week SMA typically serves as the last line of defense in a bear market. So far, Bitcoin has bottomed out twice near the orange wave, each time sending the prices explosively higher. For instance, a take-off from the 200-week SMA in 2018 drove the Bitcoin prices to almost $14,000.
Similarly, the wave support capped the cryptocurrency's downside attempts during the Covid-19-led crash in March 2020. Later, the price bounced from as low as $3,858 to over $65,000.
Bitcoin is now in its third drop below this trendline since 2018. The cryptocurrency has broken below the 20-week SMA (near $39,000) and is now targeting 50-week SMA (circa $32,200) as support. If the old fractal is repeated, it should continue falling towards the 200-week SMA (around $14,000).
Except McGlone believes there could be an early rebound. As a bullish fundamental, the strategist pointed towards the recent China crypto ban.
Beijing announced a complete ban on cryptocurrency operations in May 2021. The decision stonewalled the mining operations in the country, which were forced to either cease or move their base outside. Bitcoin prices fell sharply in response.
Nevertheless, McGlone highlighted China's rejection of open-source software crypto-assets as a plateau in their economic ascent. In his tweet published Friday, the analyst attached an index showcasing booming volumes and capitalization of the U.S. dollar-backed digital assets, including Tether.
He then pitted the rising demand for digitized dollars against the Chinese yuan-to-dollar exchange rates, noting that the logarithmic scale of market cap fluctuations between the two fiats was below the baseline zero between 2018 and 2020. That means the yuan was depreciating against the dollar.
The scale just went back above zero, signaling an interim growth for yuan against the dollar. But its uptrend still appeared dwarfed before Tether whose market cap rose by more than 40% above baseline. McGlone noted:
China's rejection of open-source software crypto-assets may mark a plateau in the country's economic ascent, we believe while extolling the value of the U.S. dollar and Bitcoin.
Additionally, Petr Kozyakov, co-founder and CEO at the global payment network Mercuryo, noted that while the U.S. government has not launched a central bank-backed digital dollar officially like China, the availability of many other alternatives, including USDT, USDC, and BUSD, could pose challenge to CCP-controlled digital yuan.
"These cryptocurrencies are pegged 1:1 against the U.S. dollar and as shown in the chart McGlone shared, the dollar is leading the digital rise over the Chinese Yuan," Kozyakov said.
"While China's crackdown has had an impact on Bitcoin's price as it hovers above $30K on 23rd June, fundamentals have improved vastly since 2018 due to institutional FOMO [...] Bitcoin should recover to $50K by the turn of the year."
However, rejecting McGlone's take, Yuriy Mazur of CEX.IO Broker noted that the Chinese economy should continue flourishing with or without cryptocurrencies, noting that it has nothing to do with the demand for digital assets.
Related: US-China trade war and its effect on cryptocurrencies
"The Chinese government is too smart to miss out on something the world deems valuable," Mazur told Cointelegraph.
"So, expect them to take considerable measures to roll out a Yuan-backed cryptocurrency (in the future) that they have complete control over."
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
