The most recent Polymarket odds put Trump's chances of winning the 2024 Presidential election at 60.3% and winning all six swing states.
Former President Trump's 20-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris on Polymarket has sparked manipulation concerns. Tarek Mansour — the founder of the Kalshi prediction market — recently argued that these results were accurate and not the result of inorganic manipulation by presenting comparable data from Kalshi.
Mansour began by dispelling the media claim that a handful of large whales are skewing the odds in favor of Trump. According to the Kalshi founder, "The median bet size on Harris is larger than the median bet size on Donald Trump," with the median bet size for Harris coming in at $85 compared to Trump's $58.
The founder also explained that more individuals on the Kalshi platform are placing bets on Trump, and the 20-point lead reflected on Polymarket roughly tracks with the number of individuals betting Trump will win the November election on Kalshi.
