Bitcoin is up 22% in the last three weeks as demand from U.S. investors gradually increased, pushing prices above pre-August crash levels.
Despite being a traditionally bearish period, Bitcoin’s (BTC) current month is about to be its best September ever, while signs of retail returning are starting to emerge.
Previously, the highest gain observed in September was a 6% rally back in 2016.
Bitcoin monthly returns(%) chart year over year. Source: CoinGlass
Bitcoin’s recent rally put its price above a key bull market metric. Are new highs inbound?
Bitcoin (BTC) rallied above $62,000 on Sept. 19, rising above its short-term holder (STH) realized price and showing potential for further gains, according to onchain data.
The STH realized price is a metric that calculates the average price at which short-term investors—those who have held their coins for less than 155 days–have purchased their Bitcoin. It acts as support in uptrends because these holders are more likely to buy if the price rises above their entry point.
CryptoQuant analyst Avocado_onchain explains that STH realized price “has consistently acted as a critical support and resistance level” for Bitcoin.
Analysts say Bitcoin’s recent price action could be a sign that the path to new all-time highs has begun.
Bitcoin (BTC) price is trading 16% above the local low of $52,546 reached on Sept. 6, leading analysts to believe that this reversal could be the start of a path to new all-time highs.
“Bitcoin’s Local structure turned back to bullish here, after closing higher than the previous September high, and locking in a higher low as well,” independent Bitcoin analyst Jelle said in a Sept. 17 post on X.
Jelle was referring to Bitcoin’s recent high at $60,670 set on Sept. 13, which was higher than the Sept. 3 high of $59,830. According to the analyst, this setup suggests that the market is strong enough to overcome the resistance at $65,000 and later confront supplier congestion at all-time high.
Bitcoin’s weekly close above a key support level is “good news,” according to traders, and the day’s rally to $57,500 could be a sign that the bottom is in.
Bitcoin (BTC) price edged above $57,500 on Sept. 9 as markets sprang back from an “exaggerated” reaction to August’s payroll report.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed Bitcoin price action recording gains roughly 8.3% above the week’s $52,546 lows.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
Multiple Bitcoin price metrics point to an incredibly bullish “post-halving growth trajectory.”
Bitcoin (BTC) price rallied to $65,000 on July 16 after the traders’ fear over the German government selling BTC cooled off. However, there are fears that Bitcoin price may drop to $58,000 as Mt. Gox began moving $6 billion worth of coins from its cold wallet to various addresses.
Despite this, market analysts believe Bitcoin’s “post-halving” growth trajectory is still in play.
Let’s look at some of the reasons why analysts think that the Bitcoin bull market is still underway.
Analysts expect Bitcoin price to test the $80,000 zone now that the halving is complete and BTC’s funding rate reset.
Bitcoin (BTC) marked its highest daily close in over ten days on April 21, reclaiming the $65,000 level. BTC price rose from a low of $64,346 on April 21, climbing 3.5% to an intraday high of $66,527 on April 22.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC price trading at $65,910 at the time of publication, up 1.7% over the last 24 hours.
The price of the pioneer cryptocurrency has been up 5% since the Bitcoin supply halving two days ago. This saw miner rewards cut in half, from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC. Some market participants are wondering whether Bitcoin will continue its uptrend post-halving.
BTC price strength improves after a trip to three-month lows, but Bitcoin bulls have multiple hurdles to clear.
Bitcoin (BTC) attempted to flip and hold $26,000 at the Sept. 12 Wall Street open as a swift BTC price rebound excited traders.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed the largest cryptocurrency holding the majority of its 24-hour gains, which at one point totaled 5.5%.
At the time of writing, $26,000 formed a focus, already flagged as an important line in the sand for Bitcoin bulls to reclaim.
“There we go, range lows reclaimed. Want to see another test of 27 now,” popular trader Jelle told X followers in one of several posts on Sept. 12.
Fellow trader Crypto Ed went further, hoping for a trip to $28,000 as the ultimate outcome on shorter timeframes, with another “sweep” of the range lows first.
Eyeing the odds of continued upside, however, Keith Alan, co-founder of on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators, warned that significant resistance lay overhead in the form of various moving averages (MAs).
Material Indicators successfully forecast the latest upside, and Alan continued to underscore the significance of $24,750 holding as support.
“There is a ton of technical resistance overhead starting with the 21-Day MA, a #DeathCross between the 50-Day and 200-Day MAs, and ultimately, the 100-Day MA which has confluence with the range high,” part of his latest commentary stated.
“$24,750 remains the critical level to hold to keep this rally alive. Focus on how PA interacts with those levels if/when they are approached.”
Alan added that the longer-term picture remained the same.
“Don't expect a straight rip to the top of the range,” he concluded.
“Clearing any one of these resistance levels takes some strength from bulls and the herd has to regroup and graze a bit before they can go after the next level.”
Casting a cursory look at the rest of Q3, meanwhile, trading platform QCP Capital warned that Bitcoin and crypto faced plenty of potential selling pressure.
Related: Bitcoin UTXOs echoing March 2020 ‘black swan’ crash — New research
In addition to macroeconomic triggers, such as the United States Federal Reserve’s upcoming decision on interest rates, industry-specific hurdles lay ahead.
In its latest market update, released on Sept. 12, QCP referenced “a concentration of upcoming bearish events that only turn neutral from mid-October onwards.”
“This includes a likely higher-than-expected CPI tomorrow and a more-hawkish-than-expected FOMC next week, plus FTX token asset sales, and Mt. Gox over the next month to cap things off,” it wrote.
“Hence while our theory implies a bottom early next month, we think the true bottom will come in mid-late October when the bad news cycle has run its course.”
QCP added that it expected a conversely “bullish” end to the year and start of 2024.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Bitcoin may have blasted through the $30,000 mark, but some market participants are warning of a critical lack of strength.
Bitcoin (BTC) held $30,000 as support before the April 11 Wall Street opening, with fresh doubts emerging over the rally’s strength.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC/USD as it hit ten-month highs of $30,438 on Bitstamp.
Almost one month in the making, the final surge to $30,000 delighted many traders who considered the move to be a matter of time.
#Bitcoin / $BTC
— K A L E O (@CryptoKaleo) April 11, 2023
What I'm watching now pic.twitter.com/8bBheMvqT7
Having uploaded a roadmap showing BTC/USD continuing to gain, Crypto Kaleo argued that Bitcoin was still the best investment allocation for capital, rather than cash or altcoins, at current prices.
“Bitcoin is breaking out, of course all of the USD charts are going to look decently bullish,” part of the day’s Twitter commentary stated.
“Look at the alt charts vs. BTC. I don't see any that I like atm. Thus - while you might still be up in USD w/ some alt positions, your capital is still best allocated stacking more Bitcoin.”
Related: Crypto audits and bug bounties are broken: Here’s how to fix them
Daan Crypto Trades meanwhile gave more attention to altcoins, entertaining the idea that BTC/USD may now consolidate.
“It will be interesting to see what happens around here. I suspect we might see it cooling off a little which means ALT/BTC pairs should gain some ground,” he wrote in part of a reaction tweet.
He added that Bitcoin market dominance may continue to increase if spot price gains remain brisk.
Despite regaining what had long been a mass resistance zone, Bitcoin did not fill everyone with inspiration with its assault.
Related: CPI to spark dollar ‘massacre’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
With nearly $100 million in shorts liquidated on April 10 through Aprill 11, analytics resource Skew noted that there was “air” on the Binance order book below the $30,000 mark during the breakout.
$BTC Binance Spot
— Skew Δ (@52kskew) April 10, 2023
Close to $30K now, filling more limit sell orders.
Note the gap between large bids in the orderbook.
Comments on chart below: pic.twitter.com/LH20GiQIDM
Venturefounder, a contributor to on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, meanwhile warned of a “bearish divergence” between spot price and relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart.
“Looking for a short term correction down to at least $25k sometimes soon, potentially down to $22k,” part of a prediction revealed.
Trader Cheds similarly eyed what he called a “triple bearish divergence” with on-balance volume (OBV), considering a short position but being “not in one” overnight.
“Congratulations to the bulls that were respectful and were calling for 30k,” Il Capo of Crypto, the Twitter trader infamous for his bearish BTC price prognosis, added on the day.
“My bearish scenario is NOT invalidated yet.”
Some were critical of the bearish divergence thesis, meanwhile, with popular trader Crypto Ed dismissing the idea on slightly longer 3-day timeframes.
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
