Tokenized US Treasurys expected to surpass $3B by end of 2024
Increased crypto adoption and high treasury yields could push tokenized US Treasurys toward a $3 billion market cap by the end of 2024.
The rapid growth in global crypto adoption (up 34% based on the number of holders since 2023) has increased the demand for stable, low-risk digital assets. Tokenized United States Treasurys give users access to government bonds within the crypto ecosystem. The figure below illustrates the rapid growth of tokenized products since January 2023, with their total market capitalization increasing by over 150% year-to-date.
To investigate the sector’s potential market capitalization by the end of 2024, Cointelegraph’s analysis employed three statistical models: Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and linear regression. The figure below displays the projected capitalization of the 12 tokenized US Treasury products aggregated.
The ARIMA model predicts $2.12 billion, GARCH forecasts $3.93 billion, and the linear regression model estimates $2.47 billion. These can be interpreted as bear, bull and base-case scenarios, respectively. A weighted combination of these three models suggests a market capitalization of $2.66 billion by the end of 2024.
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Author: Toghrul A
