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Bitcoin hodlers ‘only halfway’ to selling BTC after new $500K price prediction

RHODL adds to the indicators demanding much more upside for Bitcoin price action before the macro top sets in.

Bitcoin (BTC) investors will resist selling their coins for a lot longer and the bull run will continue, new analysis argues. 

In a Twitter debate on Oct. 28, data analyst Mitch Klee delivered fresh evidence that the current bull run is only 50% complete.

RHODL demands more upside

Using the Realized HODL Ratio (RHODL) indicator, created by popular analyst Philip Swift, Klee showed that Bitcoin is still far from the classic top signals it gave at the height of previous bull markets.

RHODL is based on the well-known HODL Waves tool, and its increasing size conforms to bull markets gathering pace — both then top out at once.

“RHODL ratio shows seller exhaustion, and we are only halfway there,” he said as part of a Twitter comment.

Bitcoin RHODL vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Mitch Klee/Twitter

As Cointelegraph reported, RHODL is far from alone in calling for an extended end to the bull run. Other sources include Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model creator PlanB, who believes that Bitcoin has a good six months left before a turning point hits.

Bitcoin price top must “be high enough to wow”

Klee was responding to Pete Rizzo, editor at major exchange Kraken.

Related: Bitcoin price dip matches October 2017 with BTC ‘explosion’ still forecast before 2022

In a recent episode of the Best Business Show, a podcast hosted by Anthony Pompliano, Rizzo called cycle price tops “psychological attacks on Bitcoiners.”

“If Bitcoin wants to create a top, it going to have to convince some of the never-sell-Bitcoin bulls to give up some Bitcoin,” he said.

“I’m confident in the Bitcoin technology’s ability to coax sellers back to the market, and the price at which it does so will likely be higher than we can posit currently because it’s an attack on us.”

Rizzo casually mentioned now-commonplace figures ranging from $300,000 to $500,000 — “high enough to really wow.”

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Powers On… Why US officials ignore ethics and STOCK Act by trading stocks?

About two weeks ago, The Wall Street Journal ran an expose on the number of judges who held or traded the stock of companies over which they presided in legal proceedings. The article identifies 131 federal judges nationwide who did this during the period of 2010 to 2018. Of those 131 members of the judiciary, 61 judges purportedly traded the public company stock of litigants during the case. Imagine that! Its quite incredible, actually.

Powers On… is a monthly opinion column from Marc Powers, who spent much of his 40-year legal career working with complex securities-related cases in the United States after a stint with the SEC. He is now an adjunct professor at Florida International University College of Law, where he teaches a course on Blockchain, Crypto and Regulatory Considerations.

It seems there would be ethical reasons for judges to not allow themselves to fall into that situation. When I litigated cases, parties were required to disclose the public companies affiliated with the party so that the judges could assess if they had any possible conflict in handling a particular case assigned to them. These conflicts could be that the judge knows the parties in the action personally, or the witnesses. The parties written disclosure is also supposed to trigger an obligation for the judge to see if they, or a family member, own stock in the public corporation involved in the lawsuit.





There is also a 1974 law that prohibits a judge from presiding over a case when their family members own shares of stock of a public company litigant. It was passed shortly after the Watergate crisis and President Richard Nixons resignation from office. This is an outright ban; it is not discretionary by the jurist. It cannot be waived by the parties. The judge is supposed to disqualify, or recuse, themself from the litigation. So, why does this happen, and should we tolerate it from our judicial branch of government?

The Federal Reserve

Now, lets turn to the Federal Reserve, which is part of the executive branch of our government, and its 12 reserve bank presidents. The Boston and Dallas Federal Reserve Bank presidents Eric Rosengren and Robert Kaplan, respectively both resigned in the last month, perhaps from allegations coming to light that they traded stocks over the last year while helping direct macroeconomic policy for our country. To me, this was, for sure, ill-advised conduct by these former presidents. They know on a continuous, confidential basis how the Fed might use certain monetary tools that tend to favor certain industries and, as a corollary, the stock prices of companies in those industries.

In another publication by The Wall Street Journal just last week, it was reported that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell imposed sweeping personal-investing restrictions on the Fed presidents and the seven governors on the central banks board. These include prohibiting the purchase or sale of individual stocks, a one-year holding period, and a 45-day pre-approval process for buying or selling mutual funds. No wonder the crypto crowd is losing faith in our institutions and seeking autonomously driven technology like blockchain to cleanse us and give everyone a level playing field.

The STOCK Act of 2012

Now, while it may seem to many that there was nothing prohibiting judiciary or Federal Reserve officials from owning or trading stock before this new investment policy by Powell, I disagree. Enter The STOCK Act of 2012, passed by Congress in April of that year during the administration of Barack Obama. STOCK stands for stop trading on congressional knowledge. Catchy, right? Congress loves its acronyms.

The STOCK Act applies to members of Congress, executive branch employees including the president and vice president and judicial officers and employees. The stated purpose of the act is:

To prohibit Members of Congress and employees of Congress [and the executive and judicial branch] from using nonpublic information derived from their official positions for personal benefit [or profit], and for other purposes.

It was in part enacted because political intelligence companies started popping up, advising hedge funds on the likelihood of governmental action. Sometimes, these companies learned information from government officials, information not otherwise readily available in the public domain, and passed it on to hedge fund managers who traded stocks based on that information. There is also a requirement to report stock transactions.

Before the laws passage, it became a problem for regulators and prosecutors that the securities law on insider trading was somewhat gray as to whether the source of the information the government officials did anything wrong by passing it on to the intelligence company. This law makes clear that it is wrong and, in fact, a felony to do so. A section of the act explicitly addresses these government officials, stating that Each Member of Congress or employee of Congress owes a duty arising from a relationship of trust and confidence. It also states that the covered government workers are not exempt from the insider trading prohibitions arising under the securities laws.



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So, with the disclosure of the trading activities by certain jurists and Fed presidents, the question that now arises is whether they were in possession of nonpublic information and used it to trade stocks. For argument, I think a judge is clearly in possession of nonpublic information before they rule in favor of one party in a litigation, before the decision is rendered in writing or orally in court. For a Fed president, it gets even more problematic. Dont they always possess nonpublic information, meaning any stock trades to avoid losses or to gain profits from upcoming Fed policies can be arguably in violation of this law?

To date, I am unaware of even one criminal prosecution under the STOCK Act. The closest thing to using the act was the 2018 indictment of former Congressperson Chris Collins. But the insider trading charge related to his purported learning of information while sitting on a public companys board, not from his congressional duties. It will be interesting to see if the Securities and Exchange Commission or criminal investigations are made known in the coming days or months arising from the reports by the WSJ.

Marc Powers is currently an adjunct professor at Florida International University College of Law, where he is teaching Blockchain, Crypto and Regulatory Considerations and Fintech Law. He recently retired from practicing at an Am Law 100 law firm, where he built both its national securities litigation and regulatory enforcement practice team and its hedge fund industry practice. Marc started his legal career in the SECs Enforcement Division. During his 40 years in law, he was involved in representations including the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scheme, a recent presidential pardon and the Martha Stewart insider trading trial.

The opinions expressed are the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph nor Florida International University College of Law or its affiliates. This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice.





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Crypto exchange Liquid attains Japanese derivatives licence

The exchange filed the application to Japan’s financial regulatory body in Q2 of 2020.

Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Liquid has announced that its subsidiary firm, Quoine Corporation, has acquired a Type I Financial Instruments Business license under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act from the Japanese regulatory authorities.

The approval will allow Liquid to commence derivatives trading on its platform, offering investment opportunities to both retail and institutional clients, although a specific date for launch was not disclosed.

Founded in 2014, Liquid is one of the world’s largest crypto-fiat exchanges with in excess of 800,000 customers and a reported highest daily trade volume of $1.1 billion across 2021. The platform operates under Japan's Payment Services Act via Quoine Corporation and has also applied for a license with the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Liquid’s chief operating officer, Seth Melamed, shared his thoughts on the importance of attaining regulation within the sector:

“The Type 1 license issuance is the culmination of a great deal of preparation and collaboration by the entire Liquid team. It is also a validation that trading derivatives in crypto can be done in a compliant manner with full customer protections & transparency.”

Related: Hacked Liquid exchange receives $120M debt funding from FTX

In mid-August this year, Liquid was the victim of a $97 million security hack on its hot wallets, although the company was keen to stress that users' wallet balances were not affected by the incident.

Hot wallets such as Metamask and Phantom are a method of storing and trading cryptocurrencies widely considered more susceptible to breaches than the offline alternative of cold wallets.

In the weeks following the targeted attack, the exchange announced positive news of a $120 million debt financing investment from FTX Trading, a subsidiary of FTX, in a bid to improve the exchange's balance sheet, support licensing endeavors in jurisdictions of Japan and Singapore, enhanced capital and liquidity generation, as well as customer support services.

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Crypto exchange Bitfinex testing new AML compliance tool

Launched in production in 2020, Notabene’s Travel Rule solution now processes transactions between 50 crypto exchanges.

Cryptocurrency exchanges Bitfinex is preparing to test out a new Anti-Money Laundering (AML) tool on its platform.

The firm announced Wednesday that it will be testing a new solution designed for complying with the “Travel Rule,” an AML/Counter Financing of Terrorism regulation for financial institutions introduced by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) in 2019.

Bitfinex partnered with compliance startup Notabene to implement its software-as-a-service solution to identify virtual asset accounts, track cross-border transactions and comply with other broad obligations of Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs). The integration will supposedly allow the firm to ensure privacy while collecting and managing Travel Rule-related data.

According to the announcement, the solution allows Bitfinex to share, send and receive counterparty information alongside blockchain transactions to any counterparties using the same infrastructure. Bitfinex’s sister company Tether, which operates the world’s largest stablecoin Tether (USDT), has also begun using Notabene's solution.

Paolo Ardoino, chief technology officer at Bitfinex and Tether, said that Bitfinex has “always taken a leading role in meeting new global regulatory requirements.” 

Notabene CEO Pelle Braendgaard told Cointelegraph that the firm launched its travel rule solution in August 2020. The service is currently processing transactions between at least 50 different exchanges, including Paxful, Luno, BitSo, OnChain Custodian and others.

Notabene has been running tests across many jurisdictions, including a pilot with the Financial Services Regulatory Authority of Abu Dhabi Global Market in early October.

“With this updated Guidance, FATF is increasing the urgency yet also acknowledging the real-world issues VASPs and Travel Rule service providers like us have pointed out to them over the last year. They are now recommending that regulators be flexible during the initial rollout,” Braendgaard said.

Related: Bank of Spain issues registration guidelines for crypto services

Braendgaard added that Travel Rule compliance is growing rapidly every quarter, and the firm expects major VASPs to comply by the first or the second quarter of 2022.

Since releasing the crypto Travel Rule more than two years ago, the FATF has continued working on the framework to improve it and fit the growing cryptocurrency industry. In February, the authority issued a review document to adapt its Travel Rule guidance for stablecoins and crypto peer-to-peer transactions.

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Dogecoin jumps 44% in one day as traders rotate Shiba Inu profits into DOGE

The DOGE price rally appeared after Shiba Inu briefly flipped Dogecoin to become the ninth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

Dogecoin (DOGE) soared on Oct. 28 amid massive capital rotations out of its top meme coin rival’s market, Shiba Inu (SHIB).

Notably, DOGE’s price rallied by a little over 44% to reach its intraday high of $0.3449. Its gains appeared in contrast to SHIB’s losses in the same period. On the other hand, the so-called “Dogecoin killer” dropped almost 28% to log an intraday low at around $0.000057; in the same hour, DOGE printed its daily top.

SHIB/USD vs. DOGE/USD daily price chart noting inverse correlation. Source: TradingView

The sudden price rally also pushed DOGE’s market capitalization to over $40 billion, a mettle that Shiba Inu achieved hours before, with the two cryptocurrencies now neck-and-neck and currently battling for the ninth place by market cap.

Traders started flocking into Dogecoin markets hours after Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, posted a new tweet about the meme cryptocurrency. 

Musk’s earlier supportive tweets prompted DOGE to climb by more than 1,500% in the first five months of 2021.

Long DOGE, short SHIB

Shiba Inu rallied exponentially heading into Q4, rising by around 1,200% in October on hopes that it would gain a listing on Robinhood, a United States-based zero-fee trading app, and its foray into the emerging decentralized finance and nonfungible token sectors with new product launches.

Nonetheless, SHIB’s supersonic bull run has also made it overvalued, based on some key metrics, notably the Relative Strength Index. Thus, it appears that spot and derivative traders have decided to secure and/or rotate their profits. 

Su Zhu, co-founder, CEO and chief information officer of fund management firm Three Arrows Capital, noted earlier on Thursday that traders rotated their easy-to-short Shiba Inu perpetual swap profits — as SHIB topped out at $0.00008854 — into the Dogecoin perpetual market.

The former Deutsche Bank trader suggested that DOGE can rally toward $0.88 next should traders rotate profits from SHIB to Dogecoin. 

Around $20.8 million DOGE rekt

Dogecoin’s price moves also caught derivatives traders off-guard as they lost about $20.8 million in total liquidations across the previous 24 hours. Around $18.17 million worth of those liquidations emerged out of leveraged long bets after DOGE’s price dropped to its weekly low of $0.2179 on Wednesday.

In contrast, the ongoing 12-hour timeframe saw bears taking more losses than bulls, with $8.9 million worth of bearish Dogecoin bets getting liquidated against $5.22 million worth of bullish bets concerning the same token.

DOGE total liquidations across all exchanges. Source: Bybt 

On the whole, however, Dogecoin traders were the majority short in the previous 24 hours, with FTX and OKEx users turning out to be exceptionally bullish, with 58% and 77% of their net positions skewed long, respectively.

A sudden bearish reversal in the Shiba Inu market also led to SHIB liquidations worth $31.41 million, the third-highest among all cryptocurrencies in the previous 24 hours.

Related: Shiba Inu risks drop with SHIB's 574% October's price rally near exhaustion

PostyXBT, an independent market analyst, warned about excessive leverages in both SHIB and DOGE markets. 

“Play spot and not leverage,” he said, adding, “The volatility could quite easily wipe out before a big move in intended direction.”

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Wharton accepts crypto payments for blockchain program tuition fees

The six-week program costs $3,800 and the Ivy League university expects to attract thousands of students each year.

Crypto adoption scores another win with the Ivy League University of Pennsylvania, but there’s a catch.

The Wharton School, one of the premier business schools in the United States, will accept Bitcoin (BTC) and other forms of cryptocurrencies for tuition fees, Bloomberg reports. However, the adoption is limited to its new online blockchain and digital assets program scheduled to start in January. 

Titled Economics of Blockchain and Digital Assets, the six-week program costs $3,800, and the university expects to attract thousands of students each year. The Wharton School will use Coinbase Commerce, the e-commerce platform of the United States-based crypto exchange, to accept crypto payments.

Wharton is currently offering an introductory class to crypto and blockchain via the online education platform Coursera, which is part of a more extensive course about financial technologies or fintech.

Related: Anyone who studies Bitcoin ends up investing in it, says Scaramucci

The business school made news earlier this year when it received a generous $5 million gift in Bitcoin. An anonymous benefactor gifted $5 million, roughly translated to 118 BTC, in May. The Wharton School reportedly exchanged the donation to fiat immediately, which would be worth more than $7 million at today’s Bitcoin price.

As Cointelegraph reported, the World Economic Forum recently partnered with the Blockchain and Digital Asset Project at the Wharton School. Led by Professor Kevin Werbach, the project aims to address the business and regulatory aspects of distributed ledger technology.

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Eth2’s Altair upgrade goes off smoothly with 98.7% of nodes now upgraded

The Altair update will introduce Beacon Chain to the Ethereum Mainnet.

The Ethereum 2.0 Altair Beacon Chain update has gotten off to a successful start, with 98.7% of nodes already upgraded. 

On Oct. 27, Ethereum 2.0 developer Preston Vanloon tweeted that the Altair upgrade had been “activated successfully.”

Altair is the first upgrade to the Beacon Chain since it went online in December 2020 and is likely the last before the merge with the Ethereum mainnet and the change to proof-of-stake.

The upgrade brings light-client support to the core consensus, cleans up beacon state incentive accounting, fixes some issues with validator incentives, and steps up the punitive params (penalties for offline validators) as per EIP-2982.

Paul Hauner is the Lead developer and reviewer of the Altair code in Lighthouse, an Ethereum 2.0 implementation. Hauner Told Cointelegraph: 

"Altair introduced two primary changes. Firstly, it added support for light clients, which are low-resourced nodes that follow the chain with fewer features and slightly weaker security assumptions. Think of a lightweight node on your phone or in your browser. Secondly, it increased the penalties for being offline and for slashing. These penalties were set low from genesis so we didn't penalize users who were just learning the ropes. The merge will increase these penalties even more. Apart from these two primary changes, there was a handful of efficiency and tidiness."

The Altair upgrade was a hard fork, meaning that any of the 250,000 or so validators who didn’t upgrade are now offline, and will see their ETH stake slowly diminishing at a rate of about 10% per year.

In order to be compatible with the Altair upgrade, beacon node operators needed to update their client version, a process that only took around 10 minutes.

Although participation dropped as low as 93.3% during the first epoch after the upgrade, it quickly increased to around 95% and has since risen to around 98.7% with about only one percent to go.

"It looks like we have practically all the validators online and running Altair now. It's hard to tell on these privacy-preserving systems, but I'd say we have no more than 1–2% still offline,"  said Hauner.

According to Beacon Chain data, this clocks in at about 247,400 active validators and 3,000 inactive validators.

Ethereum 2.0 developer Jeff Coleman tweeted, “If they don't fix it they will cross a threshold and be ejected.”

“I believe full ejection would happen once they drop below 16 ETH, which would take a pretty long time since the network is still finalizing,” said Coleman. 

"The protocol sees no difference between a validator that didn't upgrade and one that's just temporarily offline due to a power or network issue. Those that didn't update just need to update and then restart their nodes, they'll start validating again once their node catches up with the Altair chain," explained  Hauner.

The Ethereum devs will be breathing a sigh of relief as the successful upgrade means its full steam ahead to the merge and the scheduled aim of being ready to “switch off Proof of Work forever” by February 2022.

Developer Ben Edgington described the significance of the upgrade in a blog post from earlier this month:

“This is our one and only real-life practice run at upgrading the beacon chain before the merge. If it goes badly (perhaps because many stakers did not upgrade their clients in time) then it will certainly push back the merge date.”

“The proof of stake upgrade, known as The Merge, will be the biggest upgrade in Ethereum’s history."

“The Altair upgrade will give us valuable experience to ensure that The Merge goes smoothly when it is ready for deployment in 2022,” said Edgington.

Read more: Ethereum 2.0 inches closer with the Beacon Chain’s Altair upgrade

The Beacon Chain is the first stage of Ethereum’s new proof-of-stake blockchain, which will merge with the current mainnet as part of the implementation of Ethereum 2.0.

PoS is 99% more energy-efficient than PoW, which is the method Bitcoin (BTC) miners use and relies on stakers and validators rather than miners.

The final upgrade of Ethereum 2.0 is slated for early to mid 2022.

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Actor Matt Damon plugs Crypto​.com in global TV spot

The actor said the platform “shares [his] commitment to empowering people around the globe with the tools needed to take control of their futures.”

Cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com is rolling out a new ad featuring Hollywood star Matt Damon, which it plans to introduce to consumers worldwide.

The “fortune favors the brave” ad, starring Damon amid a digital landscape of historic figures, including the Wright brothers and Sir Edmund Hillary, is aimed at reaching a global audience of potential crypto users and investors. According to Crypto.com, the ad will appear on billboards and in television spots around the world and be included in its portfolio of partnerships with major sports franchises and organizations.

The announcement comes the same week Crypto.com donated $1 million to Water.org, a clean water initiative co-founded by Damon and Gary White in 2009. The actor said the platform “shares [his] commitment to empowering people around the globe with the tools needed to take control of their futures.”

Still shot of Matt Damon in the Crypto.com TV spot

Damon, a winner of an Academy Award and two Global Globes, is arguably one of the biggest celebrities to throw his name behind a cryptocurrency exchange. Cointelegraph reported in September that almost half of Americans in a survey of 2,200 people said they would consider investing in a digital asset if it were endorsed by a celebrity. Singer Mariah Carey announced on Oct. 19 that she would be partnering with crypto exchange Gemini to boost Bitcoin (BTC) adoption.

Related: Celebs and crypto in 2020: Blockchain cities, Bitcoin newbies and Twitter trolling

Founded in 2016, Crypto.com has quickly emerged as one of the fastest growing platforms in the digital asset space. The exchange started by offering customers a crypto-focused Visa card that pays out rewards for staking its native Crypto.com Coin (CRO). Most recently, the company expanded its insurance program to cover up to $750 million for its 10 million users, reflecting heightened consumer protection standards.

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Thailand’s biggest shopping center trialing digital currency

Central Retail Corp., a major Thai retail company, has announced a test of its virtual currency “C-Coin.”

Central Retail Corp., a leading firm in Thailand's retail industry, is testing a digital currency among its employees. After the sandbox phase is finished, the retail giant plans to extend the service to customers and the general public, according to a report by Bloomberg. 

The “C-Coin,” a blockchain-powered cryptocurrency, is being offered to 80,000 Central Retail Corp employees around the world as a reward for exceptional performance as a bonus to their usual salary.

While holders can use C-Coin to pay for meals and buy items and services from Central Retail's partners using it, this is just a test project for Central Retail Corp. The long-term objective of the firm is to transition towards cashless societies and venture into the e-commerce industry.

According to Kowin Kulruchakorn, Central Tech's chief innovation officer, the currency may be made available to the general public once all employees have signed up and the firm understands more about its performance. Central Retail's Central Tech is the unit that created the C-Coin and manages all of CRC's omnichannel and e-commerce systems.

Central Retail Corp is Thailand's biggest shopping mall owner, comprising more than 40 department stores and high-end retail outlets. It also operates Central Festival, Big C Supercenter and Seacon Square. Outside Thailand, it runs the Italian department store La Rinascente, Danish brand Illum, and Vietnam's Big C supermarket chain.

Central Retail Corp. is not the only entity developing a digital currency in Thailand. As reported by Cointelegraph, the Bank of Thailand announced that it is considering a central bank digital currency. In Q2 2022, the initial testing phase for the digital baht is set to commence.

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Bitcoin suddenly passes $61K as a $1.7K hourly candle fuels BTC bulls

Bitcoin pulls a fresh surprise out of the hat just as opinions were beginning to flip bearish below $60,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) delivered another classic surge during Oct. 28 as bulls enjoyed a $1,700 hourly candle.

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Bitcoin suddenly abandons the bears

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD breaking back above $60,000 after tracking sideways since early Wednesday.

The move meant that the pair cast firm doubt on recent bearish behavior, all but invalidating a head and shoulders pattern in line with expectations.

As Cointelegraph reported, analysts were already unfazed by Bitcoin's retracement, with some even increasing their price targets over longer timeframes.

At the time of writing, BTC/USD circled $61,000, having reached local highs of $61,250 on Bitstamp. Funding rates remained low, pointing to the successful "flushing" of leverage in recent days.

Dogs dominate altcoins

Altcoins moved upwards in step with Bitcoin, with the top ten cryptocurrencies by market cap seeing gains of several percentage points.

Related: Someone bought $3,400 worth of SHIB last August. It’s now worth $1.55 billion

The market was still dominated by Shiba Inu (SHIB), however, the altcoin advancing 43% on the day and 150% in a week.

The spotlight subsequently switched to Dogecoin (DOGE), which put in a copycat move as SHIB/USD came off record highs. 

DOGE/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bittrex). Source: TradingView

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