Polymarket predicts a 99% chance of Republican control of the House
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket reflects a 99% probability of Republicans taking the House, with the Senate already secured.
- A GOP-led Congress could ease the path for crypto-friendly legislation.
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Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market, indicates a 99% probability of Republicans gaining control of the House of Representatives, as trading on their shares for House control shows only a 1% chance for Democrats.
This comes as Republicans have already secured control of the US Senate, reclaiming the chamber after four years. Despite the strong market sentiment, the final outcome for the House remains uncertain.
Just 24 hours earlier, Polymarket had given Democrats a slightly better than even chance of winning the House, with a 55% probability.
According to the Associated Press, Republicans have secured at least 52 Senate seats, guaranteeing their majority in the upper chamber. The GOP majority will play a key role in confirming the next president’s Cabinet and any potential Supreme Court nominations.
A Republican-controlled Congress could facilitate new crypto legislation, which the industry has advocated for, citing unclear regulations under existing laws.
This contrasts with SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s position under the outgoing Biden administration, where he asserts that the current regulations adequately oversee the industry.
It is likely that Gensler will leave his position, as President-elect Trump has indicated plans to dismiss him during his campaign.
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Author: Estefano Gomez
