Prediction markets now give Bitcoin a 52% chance of reaching $100K in 2024
Key Takeaways
- Prediction markets estimate a 52% chance of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in 2024.
- Bitcoin has surged to $86,000, partly fueled by Trump’s presidential win and institutional demand.
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Prediction market platform Kalshi has recently priced in a 52% chance that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of 2024.
Kalshi also shows a 77% probability of Bitcoin hitting $90,000 this year, reflecting a surge in optimism that Bitcoin’s current rally could push it to unprecedented highs.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $86,000, with a market cap of $1.7 trillion and record-high open interest in Bitcoin futures at $48 billion.
In line with Kalshi’s odds, Polymarket has also launched a market on Bitcoin’s 2024 performance, showing a 61% chance of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 by the end of the year.
Since the election, Bitcoin has consistently set new highs, supported by increasing capital inflows.
November has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest month, boasting an average return of 45%, according to CoinGlass data.
Bitcoin is already up 20% this month alone, just 11 days into November. With historical data showing strong November performance, Bitcoin would need an additional 17% gain to reach the $100,000 milestone.
Supporting this sentiment, stablecoins have seen a market cap increase to over $180 billion, suggesting additional capital inflows into the crypto market that may soon pivot to Bitcoin and other digital assets.
Trump’s win has also sparked a “crypto buying spree” as investors anticipate a more favorable regulatory environment under his administration.
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Author: Estefano Gomez
