Ark Invest
ARK Invest ‘neutral to positive’ on Bitcoin price as analysts await capitulation
ARK argues that bearish continuation has limited room left to run, as on-chain indicators bottom out.
Bitcoin (BTC) has a “neutral to positive” outlook despite staying below $20,000, according to ARK Investment Management.
In its latest "Bitcoin Monthly" report, the American asset management giant flagged signs that BTC price action is close to bottoming.
Wood: "We're waiting for more capitulation signals"
One of Bitcoin’s most vocal supporters, ARK and CEO, Cathie Wood, have stuck with BTC exposure as the market continues to fall from all-time highs.
The latest Bitcoin Monthly release confirms that conviction, with Wood, analysts and research associate David Puell suggesting that little ground remains to be covered before BTC/USD reverses.
“Down 70% from its all-time high, bitcoin is trading at or below some of its most important levels: its 200-week moving average, the general cost basis of the market (realized price), the cost bases of long-term (LTH) and short-term holders (STH), and its 2017 peak,” the report reads.
“Trading below these levels is atypical and suggests extremely oversold conditions. Only four times in history has bitcoin traded below price levels relative to these means.”
As such, most of the losses should have already come, if history is a guide. Among indicators yet to see absolute lows are the MVRV ratio — the ratio of realized cap and the cost basis of entities hodling for different lengths of time.
“Historically, global bottoms occur when the MVRV of short term holders exceeds the MVRV of long term holders,” ARK explained.
“That condition has not been met, suggesting the potential for more downside.”
Generally, however, Wood in particular sees little cause for concern as Bitcoin markets weather a macro storm of significant historical proportions.
In the latest edition of ARK’s podcast, “In the Know,” released July 1, she described the firm’s attitude to BTC as “neutral to positive” overall.
“We’re waiting for a few more capitulation signals and, of course, time will tell on the systemic side here. We haven’t heard of another stress signal in the last few days, so that’s good as well,” Wood said.
Price downside still tipped to continue
ARK’s position meanwhile echoes those of various market commentators.
Related: ‘Wild ride’ lower for BTC? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
As Cointelegraph continues to report, consensus is building around a drop to around $16,000, with the majority of on-chain indicators already at lows seen either rarely or never before.
$BTC
— il Capo Of Crypto (@CryptoCapo_) July 5, 2022
Lower highs all the time. Pumps have low volume and they look corrective.
Main target remains $15,800-16,200 pic.twitter.com/HNAB8MXQZZ
“Historically, the 200-week MA has figured as a bottom indicator for BTC. In this cycle, things may be a bit different,” popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital told Twitter followers late last week, continuing the theme touched on by ARK.
“Instead of $BTC bottoming at the 200MA, it may form a macro range below it. Anything below the 200MA will likely represent peak opportunity.”
The 200-week MA currently sits at just above $22,550, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows, and has never stopped rising.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood Says Crypto Is Going To Work in the Long Run – Here’s Why
ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood remains optimistic that crypto will thrive amid fears of a systemic collapse of the industry. In a new episode of In the Know podcast, Wood says that the digital asset market is in a better position now compared to a few weeks ago as crypto has been relatively quiet over […]
The post ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood Says Crypto Is Going To Work in the Long Run – Here’s Why appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest Makes Another Push for Bitcoin ETF Despite SEC Rejection in March
Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest is once again seeking to provide the first spot-based Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the US after its previous bid was denied. In a new filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), ARK seeks a rule change that would allow the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF to trade on […]
The post Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest Makes Another Push for Bitcoin ETF Despite SEC Rejection in March appeared first on The Daily Hodl.
Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest dumps PayPal favoring Bitcoin-friendly Cash App
Wood believes that Venmo is merely a follower of Cash App, which has generated more than double Venmo’s revenue from almost half the number of users.
Crypto investment company Ark Invest founder, Cathie Wood, has dumped all of the firm’s holdings of PayPal and showed greater confidence in the long-term growth of the Cash App payment system which uses the Bitcoin Lightning Network.
Wood explained her firm’s move at the Miami Bitcoin 2022 conference which wrapped up on April 9.
The Lightning Network (LN) is a layer-2 solution for Bitcoin meant to facilitate faster and cheaper transactions. Financial technology company PayPal operates the payment app Venmo as a direct competitor with Block’s (formerly Square) Cash App.
“@ARKInvest has sold, completely got out of Paypal, whose Venmo is a big competitor to Cash App.
— Miles Suter (@milessuter) April 10, 2022
(Cash App has) much more conviction - especially when it comes to bitcoin.” pic.twitter.com/mUGkdWGMFX
Wood said in an interview with CNBC on April 8 that she made the decision to drop PayPal for Cash App due to its more comprehensive approach toward digital asset wallet integration. She said that although Venmo has begun to accommodate Bitcoin (BTC), “it’s more of a follower of Cash App.”
“We tend to put our bets with who we believe will be the winners… As we consolidated our portfolios during a risk-off period, we chose Block over PayPal.”
Wood continued that her firm’s conviction in Cash App stems from what she perceives to be the organically-driven growth in users “as opposed to more of a top-down approach” from Venmo.
In general, Wood believes retail investors have driven the crypto market up to this point as she stated:
“I don’t think most institutional investors are positioned the way they ultimately will be. Retail has really led the charge here.”
Venmo currently boasts 70 million users and $850 million in profit compared to Cash App’s 44 million and $2.03 billion in profit in 2021 according to data from app tracker Business of Apps. The stark contrast in their ability to net profits could be another motivating factor for Ark’s assessment of the two brands.
Related: Bitcoin plumbs April lows as US dollar strength hits highest since May 2020
As Ark Invest has taken a bullish stance on Cash App, its Bitcoin product lead Miles Suter announced on April 7 that American users would be able to automatically invest a portion of their direct deposits into Bitcoin.
Wood is a big Bitcoin believer who repeated her prediction in the interview that BTC would hit $1 million by 2030.
SEC Rejects Ark’s Bitcoin Spot ETF Application
Bitcoin risks final ‘bear market capitulation’ as rich investors continue BTC selloff — analyst
But more inexperienced investors have been choosing to become long-term Bitcoin holders, limiting sell-side risks below $30,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) could undergo one last bear market capitulation if "whales" — addresses that hold more than $1 million worth of Bitcoin — ramp up their selling pressure, according to on-chain analyst Willy Woo.
Room for another Bitcoin drop?
Woo assessed the average price at which short-term investors entered the Bitcoin market across history and charted the daily change in the value. That resulted in a cost basis, a metric that signals when "inexperienced" traders sell BTC to "experienced" traders during a BTC free fall, which typically coincides with the market bottom.
The cost basis underwent significant dips during the previous bear markets, also before strong accumulation took place, as shown in the chart below. Interestingly, Bitcoin's ongoing correction — from $69,000 in November 2021 to around $39,000 in March 2022 — has not resulted in a massive drop in its cost basis.
"It’s inconclusive whether we have capitulated yet," said Woo, adding that "there’s room for another drop" based on the cost basis signal.
Whales have been selling their BTC
Woo's outlook appeared in line with the rising speculations about Bitcoin's next big drop. For instance, Christopher Yates, the editor at AcheronInsights, said BTC's price could crash to $30,000 due to the "deteriorating macro environment."
"What makes me increasingly wary that the low is not yet in for 2022 is the fact that we are yet to see a capitulation style spike in volume that has occurred at all the recent lows in late 2019, early 2020 and mid-2021," Yates wrote in his latest BTC analysis, adding:
"Though not a prerequisite for a market bottom, such a capitulation-like spike in volume helps to give us confidence for when such a bottom may be near."
Data resource Ecoinometrics provided evidence of the demand gap between small and rich Bitcoin investors in its latest weekly report. For example, it noted that addresses that hold as much as 10 BTC have been accumulating the coins in the past 30 days.
Conversely, those that hold more than 10 BTC have been distributing them.
Woo also noted that Bitcoin whales have been selling off their stash, thus maintaining the downward pressure on price. That means small investors have been absorbing the sell-side pressure, and so far preventing Bitcoin price from dipping below $30,000.
Additionally, Ecoinometrics analyst Nick, noted that the ongoing accumulation trend is "as sluggish as it gets," adding that it could grow weaker after the Federal Reserve's expected rate hike in March to tame rising inflation. Excerpts:
"To summarize, the Fed is in control. If they mess up their tightening cycle, all risk assets will tank. Bitcoin currently trades like a risk asset, so it is unlikely to be an exception."
Ecoinometrics and Willy Woo's analysis also show that inexperienced investors have not been dumping their coins, thus becoming long-term holders (LTH) in the process.
Bitcoin is "most deflationary" in history
Meanwhile, another metric dubbed "LTH Inflation/Deflation ratio" is also corroborating the aforementioned theory, according to ARK Invest on-chain analyst David Puell.
In detail, Bitcoin inflation points to LTH releasing their BTC into circulation faster than the natural sell-side of miners. Conversely, deflation suggests that LTHs have absorbed a proportional amount of the miner sell-side every day alongside the outstanding total supply.
Related: Crypto vs. physical: Musk-Saylor inflation debate boils down to scarcity
The attached chart below shows the LTH Inflation/Deflation ratio showing the period of inflationary outcomes flashed in red and deflationary readings in green.
"Our analysis suggests that Bitcoin, proportional to supply held by long-term holders (LTH), is at its most deflationary in history," noted David Puell, an on-chain researcher at ARK Invest.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Ark Invest Expects Bitcoin to Exceed $1 Million by 2030 — Says BTC Could Transform Monetary History
Ark Investment Management (Ark Invest) has predicted that the price of bitcoin could surpass $1 million per coin by 2030. “Our research suggests that bitcoin has the potential to transform monetary history by providing financial freedom and empowerment in a fair, global, and distributed way,” Ark’s analyst added. Bitcoin’s $1 Million Prediction by Ark Invest […]ETH to hit $20 trillion market cap by 2030: Ark Invest
ARK Invest’s new report predicts Ether’s market cap will reach $20 trillion and the Bitcoin price will exceed $1 million by 2030 based on BTC’s use cases and how ETH captures market share from TradFi.
A new report from Cathy Woods’ ARK Invest forecasts Ethereum (ETH) will meet or even exceed a $20 trillion market cap within the next 10 years, which would equate to a price around $170,000 to $180,000 per ETH.
The report also predicted big things for Bitcoin (BTC), saying it is “likely to scale as nation-states adopt (it) as legal tender… the price of one bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2030.”
ARK Invest is a tech focused American asset management firm based in the United States with $12.43 billion AUM.
#BigIdeas2022 Report is here!
— ARK Invest (@ARKInvest) January 26, 2022
To enlighten investors on the impact of breakthrough technologies we began publishing Big Ideas in 2017. This annual research report seeks to highlight our most provocative research conclusions for the year. Download! https://t.co/QvUbuqVpIL
The prediction in ARK Invest’s report Big Ideas 2022 is predicated on how quickly the Ethereum network has grown in utility and efficiency. Much of the growth over the past two years has come from decentralized finance (DeFi). ARK described the appeal of DeFi, stating:
“Decentralized Finance promises more interoperability, transparency, and financial services while minimizing intermediary fees and counterparty risk.”
According to ARK, smart contracts and decentralized apps (DApps) on Ethereum is “usurping traditional financial functions at the margin.” The report highlighted that banking and lending, exchanges, brokerages, asset management, insurance, and derivatives can all be found on Ethereum-based smart contracts.
What’s more, DeFi is a lot more efficient too. ARK estimated that DeFi outperformed traditional finance over the last twelve months in terms of revenue per employee $88 million to $8 million.
In terms of Bitcoin, the report forecasts $1.36 million per BTC with a market cap of $28.5 trillion by 2030. ARK researchers assigned an estimated future value to eight of Bitcoin’s use cases, and used the sum of all of them to reach their conclusion about BTC price.
By 2030, the firm expects Bitcoin to account for 50% of global remittances at 1.5x velocity, 10% of emerging markets’ currency, 25% of US bank settlement volumes, 1% of nation-state treasuries worldwide, 5% of global high net worth individual (HNWI) wealth, 2.55% of institutional asset base, 5% of the cash from S&P 500 companies, and 50% of gold’s total market cap.
ARK also argued that Bitcoin mining “could revolutionize energy production.” While global concerns have been raised about the tremendous amount of energy that Bitcoin mining requires, the researchers believe that “Bitcoin mining will encourage and generate more electricity from renewable carbon-free sources.”
“The addition of Bitcoin mining into power developers’ toolboxes should increase the overall addressable market for renewable and intermittent power sources.”
Related: Ban less likely? Putin says crypto mining has advantages in Russia
Both ETH and BTC have had a rough past seven days by falling 22.2% and 13% respectively according to CoinGecko.
Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest Makes Massive 2030 Prediction for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) – Here’s Their Target
Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has unveiled massive price predictions for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) for 2030, less than 8 years away. In the new 2022 edition of its Big Ideas Report, ARK notes that Bitcoin has a relatively tiny market cap compared to major asset classes like global real estate ($220 trillion), global bonds […]
The post Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest Makes Massive 2030 Prediction for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) – Here’s Their Target appeared first on The Daily Hodl.