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Cardano price turns bullish, but is there substance to the ADA rally?

Cardano’s DeFi footprint and network activity show an uptick in users, but will it be enough to sustain ADA’s recent bullish price action?

Cardano (ADA) experienced a remarkable price surge of 23.9% on July 13, leaving investors curious about the potential for further gains. This significant rally comes on the heels of a favorable judicial decision regarding XRP, leading many to question if ADA has what it takes to break above the $0.40 mark.

Cardano 1-day price in USD at Coinbase. Source: TradingView

There are three reasons to support Cardano’s bullish momentum, including its potential to integrate other blockchains, increased activity in decentralized applications, and the decreased regulatory risk, although the latest XRP event requires a more cautious approach.

SEC actions specifically named ADA as a potential security

Cardano and its ADA token found itself in the spotlight as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) referred to it as a potential security during the recent court action against Coinbase and Binance exchange. However, it's important to distinguish that while the staking offering may be considered a security, it does not pose a direct risk to Cardano or its development companies.

Following the SEC's remarks in June, ADA faced a 36% correction, dropping to $0.24. However, the recent XRP ruling on July 13 helped alleviate regulatory risks, leading to a boost in the rally of ADA and other coins impacted by the regulator's comments.

The idea of implementing sidechains sparked additional interest

After a recent video shared by John Woods, CTO at Algo Foundation, Charles Hoskinson, co-founder of Cardano, proposed incorporating Algorand (ALGO) as a Cardano sidechain.

Although it may seem unlikely for the Algorand community to accept such a suggestion, the proposal gains relevance amidst AlgoFi's shutdown announcement on July 11. The decision followed the SEC's allegations of security-like characteristics against Algorand due to its ICO. This could provide a way for Algorand to avoid regulatory scrutiny, and it could also boost the adoption of Cardano's ecosystem.

It's worth noting that smaller altcoins could be incentivized monetarily to become a Cardano sidechain, leveraging Cardano's rich treasury and marketing potential.

Increased activity in Cardano DApps and NFT markets

Smart contract activity plays a vital role in the success of blockchains designed for decentralized applications, especially as Ethereum struggles with soaring transaction fees. Therefore, assessing ADA’s activity in terms of deposits locked on smart contracts and the number of DApp users becomes crucial in determining the sustainability of the current bull run.

Cardano smart contracts TVL, in ADA terms. Source: DefiLlama

According to DefiLlama, Cardano's Total Value Locked (TVL) in ADA terms increased by 10% month-on-month, reaching 550 million ADA on July 14. Additionally, DEX volumes saw a 6% increase over the past seven days.

Cardano's NFT sales, as reported by CryptoSlam, surged by 56% to $3.1 million, outperforming leading platforms like Solana and Ethereum.

Data sounds promising, but ADA could still face regulatory setbacks

The recent rally in ADA is certainly encouraging, but there are still some risks to consider before investing in the project.

Despite the beneficial XRP decision, it's important to note that Cardano's ICO was not explicitly cleared by the court ruling, as it solely addressed sales via exchanges and OTC desks. The ongoing XRP trial will further determine the fate of Cardano's regulatory status.

Related: Can XRP price hit $1? Watch these levels next

Additionally, ADA’s TVL of $200 million lags behind other layer-1 smart contract alternatives such as Tron ($5.9 billion), BNB Smart Chain ($3.4 billion) and Avalanche ($727 million). This suggests that there is still limited demand for ADA's services.

To solidify its position and potentially surpass the $0.40 mark, Cardano needs to continue growing and delivering on its promises, including the planned updates for 2023. Important upcoming updates include the Hydra layer-2 solution that uses sidechains to offload transactions from the main chain, and Basho, a layer-1 scalability and performance improvement proposal including improved block structure, parallelization, and pipelining.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Cardano ecosystem set to expand with custom-built sidechains

The toolkit will allow for creators of sidechains to choose their own consensus mechanism and other application-specific features, whilst inheriting the security of the main chain.

Input Output Global (IOG) — the team behind the Cardano ecosystem — will release a software toolkit in late Jan. 2023 that will enable developers to deploy custom-built sidechains on Cardano aimed at improving the ecosystem.

The news was announced by IOHK — a blockchain engineering company founded by Charles Hoskinson and now known as IOG — on Jan.12, which also attached the official technical documentation for the sidechain toolkit.

IOG developers have already used the toolkit to construct an Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM)-compatible sidechain public testnet as a “proof of concept,” and when the audit is complete, anyone will be able to deploy decentralized applications, create smart contracts and move tokens between different testing chains.

The toolkit will also enable the creators of the sidechains to choose their own consensus mechanism in addition to other application-specific features.

A diagram of how value and data will be transferred between the Cardano main chain and custom-built sidechains. Source: Cardano.org.

A sidechain is an independent blockchain that works adjacent to the parent blockchain, often referred to as the mainnet. Sidechains often attempt to add scalability to the mainnet which often prioritizes decentralization and security.

IOG hopes the sidechain development will “pave the way for mass adoption” on the Cardano ecosystem and “hopes to see a family of Cardano sidechains and partner chains emerging” in the near future.

Among the “partner chains” Hoskinson would like to see on Cardano is Solana, having recently stated on a Dec. 10 Ask Me Anything call that Cardano could leverage Solana’s network speed whilst Solana benefits from Cardano’s infrastructure and security.

Cardano community pumped

The news has Cardano fans pumped, with one member of the community hoping that Cardano experiences a similar price pump similar to that of Ethereum 2020-2021 when many layer-2 sidechains and utility tokens were rolled out.

Another member of the Cardano fanbase called the toolkit deployment a “great move” that it will “spread the usage of Sidechains for Cardano” in the months to come:

However, IOG noted that the toolkit won’t serve as a “complete solution.”

“There are some known areas for improvement, like the bridge experience, SPO rewards mechanism and the security model. All these areas will be worked on with the community as we go – carefully and steadily – collaborating for feedback, thoughts and recommendations.”

In addition to sidechain improvements, the protocol will soon introduce parallel accounting styles as part of its "Basho phase" to improve interoperability in the Cardano ecosystem, according to the roadmap.

Related: Cardano to launch new algorithmic stablecoin in 2023

This isn’t the first sidechain solution that IOG has integrated on Cardano too, having already built a more basic EVM-compatible sidechain in July 2022 to get the sidechain development rolling.

Cardano also underwent its most significant hard fork — the Vasil upgrade — in September 2022, which has been said to make smart contract deployment more efficient and enable decentralized applications to run at lower costs.

The price of Cardano’s token, ADA is currently $0.3297, up 19.11% over the past week.

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Cardano price drops to level that sparked a 65% ADA rally in March — will history repeat?

Strong ADA accumulation among whales is also in progress, according to on-chain data.

Cardano (ADA) price has been rebounding after falling to the worst levels since February 2021. Meanwhile, a technical fractal suggests that ADA's upside retracement could continue in the coming weeks.

Can ADA price extend the recovery?

ADA's price has started bouncing after testing the same support area that preceded a 65% bull run in March 2022. 

Specifically, ADA/USD witnessed a bullish rejection as its price fell below $0.75 on Feb. 24, a move that followed a short period of sideways consolidation.

It later broke out of the flat price range, rising to $1.24 on March 26, indicating a strong buying sentiment near the area around the $0.75-level (the red bar in the chart below).

ADA/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

The March 2022 fractal also showed ADA's three-day relative strength index (RSI) treading near its oversold threshold of 30. The momentum indicator has returned to near the same level as ADA consolidates inside the flat range.

As a result of this fractal, Cardano eyes a sharp rebound from $0.75 in May 2022, with its interim upside target around $1, a level that coincides with the upper trendline of ADA's prevailing descending channel pattern.

ADA/USD three-day price chart featuring rebound target. Source: TradingView

Conversely, a break below the $0.75-level, accompanied by an increase in volume, could have ADA test the descending channel's lower trendline as its next downside target (near $0.55).

ADA whales buying the dip

Cardano can also undergo a sharp rebound because of strong accumulation sentiment.

Notably, Cardano's richest investors, or "whales" that hold between 1 million ADA and 10 million ADA — have added 196 million ADA (worth $147 million at today's price) to their addresses in the past five weeks, on-chain data from Santiment shows.

Cardano 1M to 10M ADA whales supply. Source: Santiment

The accumulation sentiment grows as ADA trades near its 15-month lows, suggesting that investors have been buying the dip in anticipation of a sharp rebound. Earlier, a distribution phase witnessed across whale addresses between December 2021 and March 2022 coincided with ADA price dropping from $1.75 to around $0.75.

"Basho" factor

The Digital Trend, a pseudonymous analyst at Seeking Alpha, anticipates Cardano to continue heading lower in the next three-four months, primarily due to its correlation with the rest of the crypto market that risks correction due to macroeconomic factors.

Related: 400 new projects and 100K new wallets in a month on Cardano

Nonetheless, the analyst noted that ADA's price would rebound to a new all-time high in the days leading to "Basho," Cardano's next technical upgrade that promises to bring greater scalability.

"ADA's price has always rallied strongly leading up to the update," he explained, adding:

"In the months leading up to Shelley, ADA went from $0.02 to $0.15. Between Shelley and Goguen, ADA also appreciated significantly, and we see nothing but green in the months leading up to the upgrade."
ADA/USD daily price chart featuring key technical upgrades. Source: TradingView

The Basho update will go live sometime in 2022 or early 2023, according to Cardano's roadmap.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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