Bitcoin price surge sees significant asset outflow on crypto exchanges

October 24, 2023 Coin Telegraph

The outflow of assets from crypto exchanges is considered a bullish sign, as it indicates traders are moving their assets away from exchanges and no longer want to sell.

Major crypto exchanges recorded a net outflow on Oct. 24 as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) briefly touched the $35,000 mark for the first time in a year. The movement of funds away from exchanges is considered a bullish sign, as it indicates traders are moving their assets away from exchanges to secure storage, expecting prices to increase.

According to data shared by crypto analytic firm CoinGlass, Binance saw the biggest outflow, with over $500 million moving off the exchange over the past 24 hours, followed by crypto.com with $49.4 million in outflows, and OKX with $31 million. Most other exchanges recorded less than $20 million in outflows.

Outflows from crypto platforms recently have led to “bank run” fears after the FTX collapse in November 2022. However, the most recent outflows align more with trader sentiment than fear-induced withdrawals during the peak bear market. Glassnode data confirms that the Bitcoin outflows from exchanges over the past few days have risen in line with BTC’s price surge.

*Bitcoin exchange outflows. Source: Glassnode*

The price surge also led to the liquidation of roughly $400 million worth of short positions. Over the last 24 hours, 94,755 traders saw derivative positions liquidated. The largest single liquidation order happened on Binance, worth $9.98 million.

On-chain analysts also pointed toward the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, a metric that compares the asset’s market value to its realized value. It is calculated by dividing a cryptocurrency’s market capitalization by its realized capitalization. The realized price is determined by the average price at which each coin or token was last moved on-chain. The MVRV ratio currently sits at 1.47. The last time there was a bull run, the MVRV ratio was 1.5.

#Bitcoin hit $35K. Wallets in profits hit 79.72%.

The Bull Market starts when the MV Ratio stays above 1.5.

We're now at 1.47. I'm positive about #bitcoin hitting $40K in the next few days, which will send the MV ratio to 1.6. pic.twitter.com/uCgdNLGRnq
— hitesh.eth (@hmalviya9) October 24, 2023

The total crypto market cap has risen over 7.3% in the last 24 hours to $1.25 trillion, its highest valuation since April. The catalyst behind the surge is believed to be further speculation around the launch of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund.

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Coinbase International launches perpetual futures trading for retail customers

September 28, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bermuda

The recent regulatory approval for Coinbase’s international subsidiary comes within a month of getting the NFA nod to offer crypto derivatives services to institutional clients in eligible U.S. states.

Coinbase International Exchange, a class F license holder from the Bermuda Monetary Authority (BMA), announced it has received additional regulatory approval, allowing the platform to offer perpetual futures trading to non-United States retail customers.

Launched in May 2023, Coinbase International already offered crypto derivates services to institutional clients. With the latest regulatory approval, the crypto platform will provide eligible customers access to regulated perpetual futures contracts on the Coinbase Advanced platform in the coming weeks. The exchange said perpetual futures accounts are maintained by Coinbase Bermuda and regulated by the BMA.

The crypto exchange claimed in its announcement that nearly 75% of crypto trading volume comes from the derivatives market, and the recent regulatory approval would help retail traders access the crypto derivatives market primarily dominated by the institutions.

The crypto platform also noted that Coinbase does not engage in market-making. It said the liquidity on the exchanges is provided by established, independent liquidity providers who have undergone thorough compliance reviews.

Coinbase claimed its platform would prove the right gateway for retail traders to access the derivatives market securely and competently. Only non-U.S. consumers in a few countries can use Coinbase International Exchange, and customers are tested to evaluate their eligibility for the product before they can open a Coinbase Advanced trading account.

The recent approval for Coinbase International to offer perpetual futures to retail customers comes just a month after the platform received approval from the National Futures Association (NFA) to offer investments in crypto futures to eligible institutional clients in the United States.

Coinbase has continued to make strides outside the U.S. despite facing a regulatory battle with the Securities and Exchange Commission over its services. The regulator filed a lawsuit against Coinbase in early June, alleging that the exchange violated local securities laws by selling unregistered securities.

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Crypto sees outflows for 6th consecutive week, XRP and SOL gain investor confidence

September 25, 2023 Coin Telegraph

bitcoin futures

A CoinShares crypto market flow report reveals that traders are more confident in XRP and Solana.

Crypto investment products registered their sixth consecutive week of outflows for the week ending Sept. 24. According to data from CoinShares, digital asset outflows from crypto investment products reached $9 million last week.

*Weekly crypto asset flows. Source: CoinShares*

Bitcoin (BTC) registered a third consecutive week of outflows, reaching $6 million in the past week. Short Bitcoin positions saw outflows of $2.8 million. Ether (ETH) registered its sixth consecutive week of outflows, with $2.2 million exiting over the past week.

On the other hand, altcoins such as XRP (XRP) and Solana (SOL) have seen inflows of $0.66 million and $0.31 million respectively. The report stated that investors are getting more interested in the altcoin space, with continued inflows into XRP and SOL.

The report revealed a divergence in sentiment among traders in Europe and the United States based on regional activities. European crypto investment products had $16 million in inflows, but U.S.-based products saw $14 million in outflows.

The regional divergence was attributed to the uncertainty around the crypto regulations and recent actions of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against crypto companies.

The report revealed weekly trading volumes dropped below $820 million — well below the average of $1.16 billion in 2023.

The recent digital asset flow market report from CoinShares reflects current market sentiment with bearish pressure on the market. The Bitcoin price is currently stuck under the $27,000 key resistance and has remained mostly idle since the U.S. Federal Reserve’s recent decision not to raise interest rates for the quarter. Meanwhile, the Mt. Gox creditor’s payout delay also played a crucial role in price action last week, but BTC remained mostly unfazed by both key market events.

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Bitcoin futures open interest jumps by $1B: Manipulation or hedge?

September 19, 2023 Coin Telegraph

bitcoin futures

Bitcoin spiking above $27,200 amid a big jump in open interest has some analysts asking whether BTC’s price is being manipulated.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) open interest on derivatives exchanges experienced a sudden surge of $1 billion on Sept. 18, prompting investors to question whether whales were accumulating in anticipation of the unsealing of Binance’s court filings.

However, a closer look at derivatives metrics suggests a more nuanced picture, as the funding rate did not exhibit clear signs of excessive buying demand.

The decision to unseal these documents was granted to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, which had accused Binance of non-cooperation despite previously agreeing to a consent order related to unregistered securities operations and other allegations.

*BTC futures aggregate open interest, USD (green, left). Source: CoinGlass*

The open interest spiked to $12.1 billion, while Bitcoin’s price concurrently increased by 3.4%, reaching its highest point in over two weeks at $27,430.

However, investors soon realized that, aside from a comment by the Binance.US auditor regarding the challenges of ensuring full collateralization, there was little concrete information revealed in the unsealed documents.

Later in the day, Federal Judge Zia Faruqui rejected the SEC’s request to inspect Binance.US’ technical infrastructure and share additional information. Nevertheless, the judge stipulated that Binance.US must furnish more details about its custody solution, casting doubt on whether Binance International ultimately controls these assets.

By the end of Sept. 18, Bitcoin’s open interest had receded to $11.3 billion as its price dropped by 2.4% to $26,770. This decline indicated that the entities behind the open interest surge were no longer inclined to maintain their positions.

These whales were likely disappointed with the court’s outcomes, or the price action may not have unfolded as expected. In any case, 80% of the open interest increase disappeared in less than 24 hours.

Futures’ buyers and sellers are matched at all times

It can be assumed that most of the demand for leverage was driven by bullish sentiment, as Bitcoin’s price climbed alongside the increase in open interest and subsequently plummeted as 80% of the contracts were closed. However, attributing cause and effect solely to Binance’s court rulings seems unwarranted for several reasons.

Firstly, no one anticipated that the unsealed documents would favor Binance or its CEO, Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, given that it was the SEC that had originally requested their release. Additionally, the Bitcoin futures contract funding rate, which gauges imbalances between long and short positions, remained largely stable throughout this period.

*BTC futures average 8-hour funding rate. Source: CoinGlass*

If there had indeed been an unforeseen demand surge of $1 billion in open interest, primarily driven by desperate buyers, it’s reasonable to assume that the funding rate would have spiked above 0.01%. However, quite the opposite unfolded on Sept. 19, as Bitcoin’s open interest expanded to $11.7 billion, while the funding rate plunged to zero.

With Bitcoin’s price rallying above $27,200 during this second phase of open interest growth, it becomes increasingly evident that, regardless of the underlying motives, the price pressure tends to be upward. While the exact rationale may remain elusive, certain trading patterns could shed light on this movement.

Market makers’ hedge could explain OI spike

One plausible explanation could be the involvement of market makers in executing buy orders on behalf of substantial clients. This would account for the initial enthusiasm in both the spot market and BTC futures, propelling the price higher. After the initial surge, the market maker becomes fully hedged, eliminating the need for further buying and leading to a price correction.

During the second phase of the trade, there is no impact on Bitcoin’s price, as the market maker must offload the BTC futures contracts and purchase spot Bitcoin. This results in a reduction in open interest and may disappoint some participants who were anticipating additional buying fervor.

Rather than hastily labeling every “Bart” formation as manipulation, it is advisable to delve into the operations of arbitrage desks and carefully analyze the BTC futures funding rate before jumping to conclusions. Thus, when there is no excessive demand for leveraged long positions, an increase in open interest does not necessarily signify a buying spree, as was the case on Sept. 18.

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This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

JPMorgan forecasts limited downside for crypto markets: Report

August 26, 2023 Coin Telegraph

bitcoin futures

JPMorgan's analysts consider Bitcoin's declining open interest to be a sign that the current price trend may be weakening.

The cryptocurrency market's recent downtrend appears to be coming to an end, as JPMorgan's latest research suggests that most long-position liquidations have been completed.

According to a Bloomberg report, analysts for the American bank estimate that the liquidations are “largely behind us.” The prediction is based on the open interest in Bitcoin (BTC) futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) indicating that the selling trend might soon decelerate. Open interest, which refers to active futures contracts, serves as an indicator of market sentiment and the strength of price trends.

Bitcoin's open interest decline is seen as a sign that the current price trend could be weakening, according to analysts. “As a result, we see limited downside for crypto markets over the near term.”

*CME BTC Futures Open Interest. Source: CoinGlass*

Crypto prices have been on the downtrend in recent weeks due to declining optimism around regulatory developments in the United States, notes the report. On Aug. 26, Bitcoin is trading close to $26,000, down 11.27% over the past 30 days, according to Cointelegraph Markets.

Positive developments in the previous months boosted Bitcoin's price. Among them were a series of applications for the first U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to Bitcoin's spot price. The list of players waiting for regulatory approval includes BlackRock, Fidelity, ARK Investments and 21Shares, as well as several other asset managers.

Ripple Labs' partial victory against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was another positive development. However, this optimism is gradually fading, notes the analysis, as traders await Bitcoin ETF decisions and the SEC's appeal against Ripple brings renewed uncertainty.

The scenario contributes to a “new round of legal uncertainty” for crypto markets, making them sensitive to future developments, according to JPMorgan's team. External market conditions also played a role in the crypto market's decline, including the rising U.S. real yields, and concerns about China's economic growth.

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SEC vs. Ripple: Huge win for crypto

July 19, 2023 Coin Telegraph

bitcoin futures

On this week’s episode of The Market Report, Cointelegraph’s resident expert discusses Ripple’s latest win against the SEC and what it means for the crypto market.

In the latest episode of The Market Report, Cointelegraph analyst and writer Marcel Pechman discusses Ripple’s partial victory against the Securities and Exchange Commission and its impact on the crypto market. Although people traded based on emotion after headlines popped out, the next day, as investors could process what happened, the altcoins gave away half of the gains.

On July 13, the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York ruled that Ripple’s XRP (XRP) token is not a security — but only for programmatic sales on digital asset exchanges. The question of sales to institutional investors remains an open case.

Moreover, according to a former chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Timothy Massad, the SEC could appeal the judge’s decision. Therefore, this initial win for Ripple could still be overturned.

According to Pechman, the XRP decision was a non-event in price terms. The spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund impact is likely the main trigger for the next 18 months, even though initially, altcoins tend to underperform relative to BTC.

Lastly, Pechman analyzes how macroeconomics and regulatory concerns might drive Bitcoin’s price to $29,000 — starting with the Bitcoin futures premium stagnating around a neutral 7% level for the past week. Next, the show covers the Tether (USDT) premium in China, which reached its lowest level in over six months, indicating excessive demand to exit crypto markets.

Moving to fundamental analysis, Pechman highlights U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s ongoing cases against crypto exchanges Binance and Coinbase, and how the macroeconomic environment worsened after China’s weaker-than-expected gross domestic product growth. He also discusses the odds of the U.S. Federal Reserve further increasing interest rates in 2023.

Get all this and more in the latest episode of The Market Report exclusively on the new Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel.

First Bitcoin futures contract debuts in Argentina

July 13, 2023 Coin Telegraph

bitcoin futures

According to Matba Rofex, the trading platform behind the investment vehicle, the first Bitcoin futures contract in Latin America has begun trading.

Argentina welcomed its first Bitcoin (BTC) futures contract on July 13, just three months after the country's securities watchdog approved the underlying index as part of a strategic innovation agenda.

According to Matba Rofex, the trading platform behind the investment vehicle, it is the first Bitcoin futures contract in Latin America. In a futures contract, buyers bet on the future price of a commodity or other asset, such as Bitcoin. Under the contract, buyers and sellers are obligated to purchase and sell the asset at a predetermined future date.

Argentina's securities regulator, the Comisión Nacional de Valores (CNV), approved the Bitcoin futures index in April as part of an innovative agenda to encourage public-private collaboration for new financial products.

The Bitcoin futures contract will be based on the price of BTC quoted by several market participants providing BTC/ARS trading pairs. All trades will be settled with Argentine pesos, and traders are required to make deposits through bank transfers.

According to local media reports, the product will initially be available only to institutional investors. There's no clear timeline for when retail investors can trade Bitcoin futures contracts in the country. With the futures index, qualified investors can gain BTC exposure in a transparent, regulated environment.

Argentinians have turned to Bitcoin to keep pace with hyperinflation in the country. Argentina's annual inflation rate soared 114% in May from a 108% jump in April 2023, hitting the highest level since 1991, according to Trading Economics.

*Argentina annual inflation rate. Source: Trading Economics.*

Another Bitcoin futures contract should be soon available in the region, as regulators in Brazil are evaluating a similar investment vehicle backed by the local stock exchange B3. Initially scheduled to debut on June 30, the crypto futures contract is now expected to go live on September 30. This is the second time the product release has been delayed.

Bitcoin futures premiums reached its highest level in 18 months on July 4, jumping 3.2% from the previous week. With the surge in BTC derivatives demand, traders question whether the market is experiencing "excessive excitement" or is returning to normal after a prolonged bear market, Cointelegraph reported.

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BlackRock Bitcoin ETF could unlock $30 trillion worth of wealth, Bloomberg analyst says

July 11, 2023 Coin Telegraph

BlackRock Bitcoin ETF could unlock trillion worth of wealth, Bloomberg analyst says

Bitcoin Analysis

Following the Blackrock application, a Bitcoin spot ETF was never so close to being approved and it could be a game changer for the crypto industry, explains ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

$30 trillion worth of capital could suddenly unlock for the Bitcoin market if a Bitcoin spot ETF is approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

That is the estimated amount of assets controlled by financial advisors in the U.S., who would be willing to get exposure to Bitcoin through a regulated exchange-traded fund.

"ETF is the format in which the boomers and the financial advisors prefer their investments delivered in”, Balchunas explained in an exclusive Cointelegraph interview.

Blackrock's application for a Bitcoin spot ETF last month sparked a new wave of optimism around the crypto market which led other major firms such as ARK Investment, Valkyrie, and Fidelity to file their own applications for a Bitcoin ETF.

The involvement of Blackrock, the world's largest asset manager, was enough to raise the chances of a Bitcoin spot ETF approval from 1% to 50%, according to Balchunas.

"They're very smart and they don't just throw filings out willy nilly”, the analyst said. "They clearly see something out there that they think they can get through the regulators”, he added.

To find out more about the implications of the Blackrock Bitcoin ETF filing, watch the full interview on our YouTube channel, and don’t forget to subscribe!

Bitcoin futures premium hits 18-month high — Time to flip bullish?

July 4, 2023 Coin Telegraph

basis

The Bitcoin futures' premium surge is having traders ask whether this is excitement or a return to the average after a multi-month bear market.

The Bitcoin (BTC) futures' premium has reached its highest level in 18 months on July 4. But traders are now questioning whether the derivatives metrics indicate "excessive excitement" or a "return to the mean" after a prolonged bear market.

BTC price gains capped by regulators, macroeconomics

Bitcoin's price has been trading in a narrow 4.4% range since June 22, oscillating between $29,900 and $31,160 as measured by its daily closing prices. The lack of a clear trend might be uncomfortable to some, but that is a reflection of the opposing drivers currently in play.

For instance, investor sentiment was negatively affected by the historic reversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, which reached its highest level on record.

*U.S. 10-year / 2-year spread. Source: Real Investment Advice*

The closely monitored inverted spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes has reached its highest level since 1981, standing at 1.09%. The phenomenon known as yield curve inversion, when shorter-dated Treasury notes trade at higher yields than longer-dated notes, typically precedes economic recessions.

On the other hand, signs of strength in the U.S. economy have reportedly driven investors to price in the possibility of further interest rate increases by the central bank to keep inflation under control.

In addition to these macroeconomic distortions, cryptocurrency regulation has also been at the center of investors’ attention as of late. Here are just some recent examples:

Kraken exchange was required by the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California to provide details of users who engaged in transactions exceeding $20,000 within a calendar year;
Thailand’s Securities and Exchange Commission banned crypto lending services, thus prohibiting crypto platforms from offering any form of return on deposited crypto by customers;
The Monetary Authority of Singapore announced new requirements for crypto service providers to hold customer assets in a statutory trust by year-end.

So investors are probably now asking: Does Bitcoin have the strength to break above the $31,000 resistance? Of course, one must take a potential economic recession and the increasing regulatory clampdown measures around the world into account first.

Luckily, Bitcoin futures' contract premiums can provide some clues for traders about the market's next move for reasons discussed below — as well as the costs of hedging using BTC options.

Bitcoin futures premium reaches 18-month high

Bitcoin quarterly futures are popular among whales and arbitrage desks. However, these fixed-month contracts typically trade at a slight premium to spot markets, indicating that sellers are asking for more money to delay settlement.

As a result, BTC futures contracts in healthy markets should trade at a 5% to 10% annualized premium — a situation known as contango, which is not unique to crypto markets.

*Bitcoin 3-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas*

The demand for leveraged BTC longs has significantly increased over the past week as the futures contract premium jumped to 6.4% on July 3 from 3.2% one week prior. Besides reaching the highest level in 18 months, the metric has finally moved to a neutral-to-bullish area.

To gaugue market sentiment further, it's also helpful to look at the options markets as the 25% delta skew can assess whether the price stagnation has made investors less optimistic. It reveals when arbitrage desks and market makers charge higher prices for protection against upside or downside movements.

In short, if traders expect a drop in Bitcoin's price, the skew metric will rise above 7%, while periods of excitement typically have a negative 7% skew.

*Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew. Source: Laevitas*

The 25% delta skew metric experienced a complete turnaround, indicating bullish momentum picked up on June 21 when it dropped below -7%. As Bitcoin's price climbed back above $30,000, the indicator continued to improve, culminating in "greed" with a negative 13% skew on July 2.

Moderate optimism "healthy" for Bitcoin market

Typically, a 6.4% futures basis and a negative 13% delta skew would be considered moderately bullish. However, considering analysts' estimating a 50% chance for BlackRock's spot Bitcoin approval, these metrics might be seen as conservative. But a certain amount of skepticism is indeed healthy for buyers using derivatives contracts and avoids the risk of cascading liquidations.

Currently, macroeconomic factors and regulatory uncertainty likely explain the suppressed optimism for BTC derivatives despite multiple ETF requests from the world's largest asset managers.

So 18-month highs aside, the current Bitcoin futures' premium remains relatively modest, compared to previous instances of excessive optimism such as the 19% in October 2021.

Thus, today's 6.3% futures premium represents a healthy market as opposed to 10% or higher indicating excessive optimism or euphoria. Moreover, traders should remain confident given that bulls have room to further leverage long positions without running excessive risk.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

SEC, CPI and a ‘strong rebound’: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

June 12, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin faces a week full of potential price triggers — both up and down — as BTC price action drops below a major trend line.

Bitcoin (BTC) starts a “massive” week in a precarious position as key support stays out of reach for bulls.

After fresh losses across crypto markets over the weekend, BTC/USD closed the week below $26,000 for the first time in three months.

Both Bitcoin and altcoins continue to struggle thanks to legal battles raging in the United States and their impact on sentiment.

Fragile markets will now encounter a slew of volatility triggers, however, as U.S. macro data releases accompany the next steps in the crypto legal debacle.

In what promises to be five days full of surprises, traders will likely experience none of the lackluster sideways price action which was characteristic of crypto markets before the U.S. upheaval.

How will the coming week shape up? Cointelegraph takes a look at the major things to consider when it comes to Bitcoin and wider crypto market price action.

Bitcoin loses key trend line, but some remain bullish

Bitcoin price closed the weekly candle in a disappointing position thanks to last-minute downside wiping value from crypto as a whole.

The removal of various altcoins by certain trading platforms concerned about U.S. legal ramifications sent prices tumbling — and led BTC/USD to its lowest weekly close since mid-March, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

*BTC/USD 1-day candle chart on Bitstamp. Source: TradingView*

In doing so, the pair also locked out the 200-week moving average (MA) as support.

“A BTC Weekly Candle Close below the 200-week MA could confirm it as a lost support,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital warned beforehand.

“In that case, $BTC could relief rally into the MA next week, potentially to flip it into new resistance. This sort of turn of technical events could precede additional downside.”

*BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/Twitter*

Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, held similar concerns about the fate of the total crypto market cap.

Mayday, mayday.

Total market capitalization is beneath the 200-Week MA and EMA.

Needs to get back above $1.04T during this week to avoid further downwards momentum for #Crypto. pic.twitter.com/J5lb8G5APU
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) June 12, 2023

With traders’ downside targets already extending to $24,000 and below, some took the opportunity for more optimistic takes on both shorter and longer timeframes.

Daan Crypto Trades noted upside potential thanks to the weekend losses opening up a CME futures gap.

That gap stands between $26,150 and $26,500, with BTC/USD previously “filling” another within hours.

*CME Bitcoin futures 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView*

Continuing, popular trader Credible Crypto insisted that despite everything, long-term resistance levels for Bitcoin would not pose much of a problem in the end. $40,000, he repeated, was still a target of choice.

“When you have a major correction down and folks are underwater there is resistance to the upside as moves up are sold into by bag holders. When you have capitulation down and folks have been drowned (forced to sell at the bottom) that sell pressure no longer manifests as we move up because ‘there is no one left to sell,’” part of weekend Twitter commentary read.

“If bag holders dumped at the bottom then the only sell pressure above is from short term traders/profit takers and that’s not enough to stop a major impulsive move in its tracks for long. Expect ‘major resistance levels’ above to get melted through a lot faster than most are expecting.”

Bitcoin runs gauntlet ahead of "massive" macro week

The coming week offers a rare deluge of potential crypto price triggers from the wider economic and geopolitical establishment.

MASSIVE Week:

Monday:
- Deadline for Binance and Binance US to respond to SEC's application for a temporary restraining order

Tuesday:
- Motion for temporary Binance US restraining order hearing
- Hinman's documents release (XRP)
- CPI Data Release

Wednesday:
- US Rate…
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) June 12, 2023

In addition to the ongoing ramifications of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) versus multiple exchanges, macroeconomic data promises volatility of its own.

June 13 will see the May print for Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, and unlike last time, markets are expecting the Federal Reserve to enact a pause in interest rate hikes.

This would end an uninterrupted hiking cycle which began in late 2021 — right when Bitcoin saw its current all-time high.

*Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group*

According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds of a pause stood at 75% at the time of writing on June 12.

With a loosening of economic conditions on the horizon, market commentators both within crypto and beyond are considering the odds of a risk asset rally.

Biggest opportunity for equities to go higher? Rapid decline in inflation as rents and food costs come down, which allows Fed to pause int rate hikes in June and ultimately reduce rates by Y.E.

Biggest risk? Narrow breadth.
- Eight stocks account for 30% of S&P 500 market cap… pic.twitter.com/WePpRfNzxz
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) June 12, 2023

“Pretty convinced that the money maker this week is A Fed Pause/Skip which sends $BTC past 30k,” popular trader Traderhc told Twitter followers.

Fellow trader Skew added that the CPI event would “likely set the mood” for the week’s price action.

In addition to CPI, meanwhile, the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has the potential to spark market-moving soundbites from Fed Chair, Jerome Powell.

The rates decision is due June 14, along with a copycat announcement from the European Central Bank (ECB) a day later. June 15 will see additional macroeconomic data releases.

Before all that, however, fallout from the SEC versus Binance and Coinbase saga may already move prices.

“Tomorrow will be a big day for the market,” Philip Swift, co-founder of trading suite Decentrader predicted on June 11.

“The SEC has to respond to Coinbase's request for rulemaking... ...and US district court hears SEC’s petition for temporary restraining order on binance US at 2pm. Buckle up.”

Bitcoin fundamentals to the moon

As is often the case with Bitcoin, short-term price action is meeting its match in underlying network data which displays an altogether different trend.

This week, as with almost every time in 2023, network difficulty and hash rate are aiming for new all-time highs.

Hash rate is already higher than ever, according to some estimates, while difficulty will increase by approximately 2.5% on June 14. This will take it past 53 trillion for the first time.

Data from monitoring resource BTC.com confirms that network fundamentals really are in “up only mode” despite BTC price pressures, with 2023 only seeing three difficulty reductions out of 12 adjustments in total.

“Bitcoin hashrate will not stop growing. This is insane,” Mitchell Askew, social media associate at Blockware, reacted.

“Mining is ruthless, free-market competition in its purest form.”

*Bitcoin network fundamentals overview (screenshot). Source: BTC.com*

As Cointelegraph often reports, the concept of Bitcoin spot price following hash rate in particular has long been a mantra for industry stalwarts, among them the popular but outspoken BTC advocate, Max Keiser.

Miner exchange inflows jump

Swift nonetheless described the current difficulty levels as “increasingly challenging” for all but the most robust miners.

#bitcoin Miner Difficulty just made a new all-time-high!
An increasingly challenging environment for any underperforming miners.

Difficulty now at 51.2 Terahashes.

Free live chart: https://t.co/dEnNrrD4l4 pic.twitter.com/V8QNKyXAPv
— Philip Swift (@PositiveCrypto) June 9, 2023

Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode meanwhile tracks the onboarding of miners in real time.

“Despite an uncertain Macroeconomic environment alongside intensifying regulatory pressure, ASICs continue to come online as the Bitcoin Hash Rate (7DMA) reaches an ATH of 381 EH/s,” researchers commented on a chart of hash rate.

“This is equivalent to 381 quintillion guesses attempted every second to solve the Block puzzle.”

Glassnode data meanwhile appears to show miner inflows to exchanges hitting their highest daily levels since 2019 last week.

Across the past week, #Bitcoin Miners have been sending a significant amount of coins to Exchanges, with the largest inflow equal to $70.8M.

This is the 3rd largest inflow on record, -$30.2M less than the peak inflow of $101M recorded during the primary bull market of 2021. pic.twitter.com/w4fNFMcxr4
— glassnode (@glassnode) June 11, 2023

Following up, James Straten, research and data analyst at crypto news and insights platform CryptoSlate, flagged mining pool Poolin as the likely main contributor to the flows.

Whales boost BTC exposure during altcoin sell-off

Analyzing the impact of the latest crypto market upheaval, research firm Santiment meanwhile saw cause for bullishness.

This, it argued in findings published on June 11, is thanks to the buying conviction of Bitcoin’s largest-volume investor cohort — the whales.

As Cointelegraph previously reported, the largest class of whales has diverged from the rest of the investor base since May, accumulating while others distribute BTC.

With altcoins tumbling at the weekend, whales appeared to take the opportunity to increase, rather than decrease, BTC exposure.

“As altcoin madness has ensued, there quietly is a bullish divergence between Bitcoin's accumulating whales and falling price,” Santiment commented.

“With whale holdings moving up by ~1K $BTC per day while prices fall, there is reason to believe a strong rebound can occur.”

*Bitcoin whale activity annotated chart. Source: Santiment/Twitter*

At the same time, sentiment across the broader crypto market continues to reject knee-jerk reactions to the news.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in “neutral” territory, having barely moved in recent weeks, hovering around the exact center of its 0-100 scale.

*Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me*

Magazine: Tornado Cash 2.0: The race to build safe and legal coin mixers

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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