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Law Decoded: Crypto risks, imaginary and real, and creative ways of addressing them, April 4–11

The Treasury admits there’s not much crypto-aided sanctions evasion going on, stablecoins attract regulatory attention, and a fourth futures-based BTC ETF secures approval.

Last week, there was a lot of regulatory talk about crypto-related risks. While this is very common in itself, some angles and proposed solutions to such risks came across as novel. In the United States, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) issued a letter to commercial and savings banks under its purview, or all federally chartered banks, asking financial institutions to notify the FDIC about all ongoing and planned crypto-related activities. Apparently, standardized guidance for all banks would not fit the bill since the risks seem to be unique in each case.

In Singapore, the local monetary authority became concerned about the “reputational risks” that virtual asset service providers that have originated in the city-state but operate overseas can pose. The proposed solution is bringing such firms under the Singaporean licensing regime that, until now, applied only to firms with domestic operations.

Finally, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair Gary Gensler — one of the most vigilant guardians of the nation’s investor folk – spoke about how retail crypto investors must be protected. Embedded within the usual talking points that were previously unheard of calls for the SEC staff to explore ways of regulating platforms that facilitate the trading of both securities and non-securities, including closer coordination with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). At the same time, other crypto-related fears have begun to dissipate, best exemplified by the “Russia sanctions evasion” narrative taking a major hit.

Crypto for real people

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testified before the House Financial Services Committee last week and fielded numerous questions about the relationship between digital assets and national security, including several on the potential threats that crypto could pose to the robustness of the international financial sanctions regime. Yellen reassured representatives that using blockchains to circumvent sanctions is difficult and that her agency hasn’t seen any significant crypto-aided sanctions evasion in practice. It is fair to say that regular Russians, rather than the wealthy corrupt elites, rely on digital assets as they flee the country or get stranded abroad, as evidenced by their firsthand accounts. According to the government’s latest estimate, Russian citizens could be holding as much as $130 billion in cryptocurrency.

Stablecoins in crosshairs

Emerging regulatory frameworks around stablecoins continue to be one of the hottest areas of crypto policy. Speaking at another event last week, Secretary Yellen said that the Treasury was hard at work helping Congress draft legislation that would ensure the stablecoin sector’s risk resilience. Another related piece of legislation dropped on April 7, introduced by Senator Pat Toomey called the Stablecoin Transparency of Reserves and Uniform Safe Transactions (TRUST) Act. To Toomey, the main risk associated with stablecoins is that such assets could be categorized as securities. Thus, the bill proposes that convertible “payment stablecoins” should be exempt from securities regulations. Stablecoin offerings used as a means of payment are also the major focus of the United Kingdom regulators, where Her Majesty’s Treasury announced plans to amend the legislation around payments accordingly. This is just one of the assortment of measures that the U.K.’s financial authorities announced against a background of crypto-bullish rhetoric from Economic Secretary of the Treasury John Glen and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak.

More futures before spot

Days after rejecting yet another application of a Bitcoin (BTC) spot exchange-traded fund (ETF), the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission greenlighted the fourth futures-based BTC ETF. Teucrium Bitcoin Futures Fund has joined the ranks of similar offerings by ProShares, Valkyrie and VanEck. Inevitably, the development has triggered a new round of the conversation on whether a spot-based Bitcoin product is on the way. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas opined that the approval is a “good sign” for a prospective spot BTC offering. Meanwhile, Grayscale CEO Michael Sonnenshein, whose company is working on converting its GBTC fund into a BTC spot ETF, has found language in the text of the SEC’s Teucrium approval that strengthens the case for a spot approval. Meanwhile, ProShares, the firm behind the first regulated Bitcoin futures ETF, filed a registration statement for an exchange-traded product that will allow investors to short Bitcoin futures contracts.

From Premiums to Discounts: Bitcoin’s Wild Ride Splits Global Markets

Leading Derivatives Exchange CME Group Launches Micro Bitcoin and Ether Options

Leading Derivatives Exchange CME Group Launches Micro Bitcoin and Ether OptionsCME Group, one of the world’s largest derivatives marketplaces, has launched micro-sized bitcoin and ether options. “The launch of these micro-sized options builds on the significant growth and liquidity we have seen in our micro bitcoin and micro ether futures,” said a CME executive. CME Now Offers Micro Bitcoin, Ether Options CME Group announced Monday […]

From Premiums to Discounts: Bitcoin’s Wild Ride Splits Global Markets

ProShares ETF’s Bitcoin stash hits $1.27B as BTC eyes $50K by mid-April

Grayscale Investments' trust fund GBTC still trades at a 25% discount compared to Bitcoin's price.

Strong inflows into the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy exchange-traded fund (ETF) (BITO) in the past two weeks pushed its Bitcoin (BTC) exposure to a new record high.

No Bitcoin outflows despite 'rollover' risks

The fund, which uses futures contracts to gain exposure to Bitcoin's price movements, had a record 28,450 BTC under its management — worth about $1.27 billion at the current price — as of March 24, compared to nearly 26,000 BTC a month before, according to official data from ProShares.

ProShares Bitcoin ETF holdings as of March 24, 2022. Source: Official Website

Interestingly, the inflows appeared in the days leading up to the "rollover" of BITO's 3,846 March future contracts in the week ending March 25.

To recap, a rollover involves traders moving their futures contracts as their expiry nears to a longer-dated contract, so to maintain the same position.

BITO's rolling periods typically follows up with an increase in Bitcoin net outflows, noted Arcane Research in its latest report, while citing the last rolling period due to the market uncertainty caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

ProShares BITO AUM. Source: Arcane Research

But on March 21, it also witnessed an inflow of 225 BTC to its coffers just as BITO rolled its 437 March contracts to April. That prompted Arcane to see a growing institutional demand for the fund. It wrote in its report:

"The strong inflows to BITO suggest that Bitcoin appetite through traditional investment vehicles is increasing."

BITO witnessed consistent net inflows for the remainder of this week, according to further data provided by Glassnode.

Purpose Bitcoin ETF flows. Source: Glassnode

Bitcoin to $50K next month?

The inflows to the ProShares Bitcoin ETF increase coincided with a rally in the spot BTC market on March 25.

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

On March 25, Bitcoin climbed another 2.5% to over $45,000, its highest levels in over three weeks. Alexander Mamasidikov, a co-founder of crypto wallet service MinePlex, noted that BTC's price could jump to $50,000 next.

"The growth seen in the ProShares BTC ETF to a new all-time high of 28,000 BTC is proof that the clamor for a Bitcoin-linked exchange-traded fund product is backed by an active demand," he told Cointelegraph, adding:

"These positive price trend activities have impacted BTC thus far and a sustained accumulation or investment from both retail and institutional investors is poised to push the coin to form strong support above $50,000 towards mid-April."

No love for Grayscale?

Interestingly, institutions have been picking ProShares Bitcoin EFT over its rival Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), a fund that has been trading at a 25% discount to spot BTC.

Grayscale Discount to NAV chart. Source: YCharts

The issue with picking GBTC over BITO is that its discount continues to grow, which means investors would remain at the risk of underperforming spot Bitcoin, at a much higher rate than the risk with BITO, which trades around 2% lower than the current BTC prices.

Nonetheless, there is still a slim chance of GBTC emerging as a winner. Namely, Grayscale Investments, the New York-based investment firm backing GBTC, has expressed interest in converting the trust fund into a spot Bitcoin-backed ETF. If it happens, GBTC's 25% discount should return to zero.

Grayscale Investments BTC holding. Source: Coinglass

"Buying BITO shares guarantees you will underperform Bitcoin," said Ryan Wilday, a veteran financial analyst in an analysis published in February, adding:

"And buying GBTC shares likely results in similar or worse underperformance compared to BITO, with a very slim chance of outsized performance in the event GBTC is turned into a spot ETF."

Related: Record GBTC discount may spark $100K Bitcoin price rise — Analyst

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has never approved a spot Bitcoin ETF application, believing BTC is vulnerable to price manipulation.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

From Premiums to Discounts: Bitcoin’s Wild Ride Splits Global Markets

Cryptocurrencies against the ‘silent thief.’ Can Bitcoin protect capital from inflation?

Rising inflation forces investors to look for defensive assets. What can the cryptocurrency market offer them?

The world is becoming increasingly volatile and uncertain. The assertion that “inflation is the silent thief” is becoming less relevant. In 2021, inflation has turned into a rather loud and brazen robber. Now, inflation is at its highest in the last forty years, already exceeding 5% in Europe and reaching 7.5% in the United States. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine affects futures for gold, wheat, oil, palladium and other commodities. High inflation in the U.S. and Europe has already become a real threat to the capital of tens of thousands of private investors around the world.

Last week at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that he would recommend a cautious hike in interest rates. At the same time, Powell mentioned that he expected the crisis in Eastern Europe to not only result in increased prices on oil, gas and other commodities but boost inflation, too. Powell also explicitly reaffirmed his determination to raise the rate as high as necessary, even if it will cause a recession.

Crypto to the rescue

Many investors are looking for ways to protect their savings from inflation using cryptocurrencies.

Chad Steinglass, head of trading at CrossTower, is skeptical about cryptocurrencies as a defensive asset. Steinglass commented to Cointelegraph:

“It’s important to remember that crypto is still a young asset and trades more like a speculative asset than a defensive one.”

Indeed, cryptocurrencies differ from fiat currencies in their volatility. Even the most stable cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), which are of great interest to institutional investors, can rise and fall by tens of percent within a day.

Of course, there are more use cases for Bitcoin each day, and it already functions as a base layer for the emerging alternative financial system. In the longer term, this trend will develop which will not only increase the price of Bitcoin, but also result in a gradual decrease in its volatility.

To protect money from inflation, investors buy gold, cash or real estate. Speaking to Cointelegraph, Paolo Ardoino, chief technology officer at crypto exchange Bitfinex, compared Bitcoin to gold:

“Crypto and Bitcoin, in particular, have unique properties and are a form of digital gold. In particular, it has shown to perform well when money is being debased by central bank stimulus methods. This, of course, is one of the original intentions of Bitcoin — to protect people from this very phenomenon.”

Jeff Mei, director of global strategy at digital asset platform Huobi Global, also shares this opinion. Mei said that Bitcoin is a great hedge against inflation because there is only 21 million Bitcoin available once they’re all mined.

Derivatives or not

Investors often use derivatives in traditional financial markets to protect savings from inflation. Rachel Lin, co-founder and chief executive officer at trading platform SynFutures, said that by using derivatives such as longing Bitcoin futures, investors could get exposure to BTC with much less capital and limit potential losses.

But, Ardoino does not recommend that investors use crypto derivatives to this end. He thinks that direct exposure to Bitcoin, which he calls “the king of crypto,” is more advisable.

In addition to Bitcoin, Mei singles out Ether as one of the most stable digital assets. He opined to Cointelegraph that Ethereum’s competitors such as Polkadot (DOT), Terra (LUNA) and Solana (SOL) could be viewed as a store of value as well.

Lin pointed out that if investors are simply looking for a way to earn fixed income, they could convert their fiat to crypto and deposit it on some of the larger centralized finance (CeFi) platforms or blue-chip decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols. Potentially, this gets a much higher return than depositing cash in a bank.

Steinglass remains skeptical about comparing cryptocurrencies to the dollar in the current situation now that the conflict in Eastern Europe caused the USD to spike in value relative to many other currencies as people scramble for stability. For the moment, demand for dollars has outstripped the fear of inflation. Steinglass added:

“On one side, cryptocurrencies are an element of an alternative money system and store of value badly needed and on the other side, they remain a risk asset in a time when investors worldwide have been reducing risk.”

Is gold the answer?

None of the experts interviewed by Cointelegraph mentioned gold-backed stablecoins such as PAX Gold (PAXG) as their preferred defensive asset. Historically, however, gold has been a traditional tool used to protect capital during times of financial turbulence. Gold constantly increases in price over time. Throughout all of 2021, the price of gold sat between $1,700 and $1,950 per ounce. It went up further to $2,050 an ounce in 2022.

Institutional investors have been showing an increased interest in gold-backed stablecoins, but the same cannot be said about the younger generation of retail investors. Perhaps the main problem with gold-backed stablecoins as a hedge against inflation is not technology but ideology. For many crypto folks, both fiat currencies and assets like gold represent old values.

It is clear that in 2022 inflation will remain a threat to investor capital, and the crypto industry has yet to find its answer to the question of combating this “silent thief.”

From Premiums to Discounts: Bitcoin’s Wild Ride Splits Global Markets

Valkyrie Investments‘ Leah Wald on Bitcoin ETFs and the future of digital assets

Valkyrie Investments CEO Leah Wald opens up on the importance of Bitcoin ETFs and why the traditional financial world should pay attention to digital assets moving forward.

Cointelegraph sat down with Leah Wald, CEO of digital asset investment firm Valkyrie Investments, to learn more about the importance of a Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) and the future of digital assets. 

For context, Valkyrie Investments was launched in 2021 and is one of the only asset managers to have three Bitcoin-adjacent ETFs trading on the Nasdaq. Valkyrie launched a Bitcoin Strategy ETF in October 2021 that offered indirect exposure to BTC with cash-settled futures contracts following a United States Securities and Exchange (SEC) approval for a similar ETF from ProShares. Valkyrie also has a balance sheet opportunities ETF that invests in public companies with exposure to Bitcoin. In addition, the investment firm’s Bitcoin Miners ETF began trading on the Nasdaq on February 8, 2022, under the ticker WGMI.

According to Wald, Valkyrie focuses on “taking the mystery out of investing in Bitcoin” for new investors. “We want to ensure that everybody is able to participate in this ecosystem,” Wald told Cointelegraph.

In addition, Wald explained the importance of a Bitcoin ETF, noting that this topic has been important ever since the Winklevoss twins first filed for a Bitcoin trust. Wald said that a Bitcoin ETF ultimately allows access to an asset class for many people who didn’t have access previously. Wald also stated that there are various ETFs, such as Valkyrie’s futures-based ETF and thematic ETFs. While Wald pointed out that we “shouldn’t hold our breath” for a Bitcoin spot ETF — which she refers to as the “holy grail” — she said that it’s Valkyrie’s mission to eventually ensure a Bitcoin spot ETF, noting that the firm is “fighting hard and working with regulators” to get there.

In addition to her thoughts on ETFs, Wald commented on how the traditional world of finance may view Bitcoin and digital assets. “The most common question is still around volatility and how to allocate accordingly,” said Wald. She added that typical portfolio structures are seen as “bunk” or narrow, which is why the traditional financial world requires a new paradigm shift. 

Wald further remarked that some of the basic questions she has received focuses on what Bitcoin is, or if Ether (ETH) is the same as Bitcoin. “I think sometimes in our industry, we believe and expect a lot of individuals to be as far down the rabbit hole as we may be, but some of the conversations are still at the very basic level,” she mentioned.

Cointelegraph asked Wald about Valkyrie recently passing $1 billion in assets under management. While impressive, Wald believes that this demonstrates how quickly institutional interest in digital assets is growing. She noted this represents a “stark difference” from when Valkyrie was first launched in 2021. As such, Wald explained that this signals large pools of wealth stepping into the crypto sector.

Before concluding the interview with Wald, Cointelegraph asked the executive to share her price prediction for Bitcoin this year. While she mentioned that she is clearly bullish on Bitcoin, Wald predicts that BTC will reach $70,000 by the end of 2022. “We are very bullish for the second half of the year and especially Q4. It sounds like we should just hold tight, but we‘re shooting for $70,000 by the end of the year.”

From Premiums to Discounts: Bitcoin’s Wild Ride Splits Global Markets

SEC Will Continue To Evaluate Bitcoin Spot ETFs, but They Must Be Designed To Prevent Fraud: Chair Gary Gensler

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will continue to review Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) proposals, according to SEC chair Gary Gensler. U.S. Representatives Tom Emmer, a Republican from Minnesota, and Darren Soto, a Democrat from Florida, wrote Gensler in November expressing concerns and questioning why the SEC wasn’t comfortable allowing a Bitcoin spot […]

The post SEC Will Continue To Evaluate Bitcoin Spot ETFs, but They Must Be Designed To Prevent Fraud: Chair Gary Gensler appeared first on The Daily Hodl.

From Premiums to Discounts: Bitcoin’s Wild Ride Splits Global Markets

Injective Protocol (INJ) rallies 100%+ after launching cross-chain support for Cosmos

INJ books a 100%+ gain shortly after the release of the Injective Bridge v2 and the launch of DEX-based perpetual futures for ATOM.

Trading perpetual futures contracts in decentralized apps is a crypto sub-sector ripe for growth, especially as discussions of regulation, taxation and mandatory KYC at centralized exchanges continue to take place.

One DEX platform that has begun to gain traction is Injective (INJ), an interoperable layer-one protocol designed to facilitate the creation of cross-chain Web3 decentralized finance (DeFi) applications.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after hitting a low of $3.91 on Feb. 3, the price of INJ has rallied 157.8% to a daily high of $10.08 on Feb. 11 amidst a 1,756% spike in its 24-hour trading volume to $306 million.

INJ/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Three reasons for the spike in demand for INJ include the addition of support for new assets in spot and perpetual markets, the release of Injective Bridge v2 and a climbing total value locked on the protocol as a result of staking and the addition of new assets.

Injective Bridge v2

The most recent development that helped kick off the price growth for INJ was the release of the Injective Bridge v2 at the end of January, which included a variety of upgrades designed to help facilitate cross-chain compatibility with Cosmos (ATOM) and Ethereum (ETH).

According to Injective, the new bridge is capable of supporting any ERC-20 token and multiple Cosmos-based tokens including ATOM, Osmosis (OSMO) and Terra (LUNA).

Over time, Injective looks to have the bridge become a launchpad of sorts for new Web3 projects that want to allow users to transfer assets from the Ethereum network for zero fees.

There are also zero bridge fees when transferring funds into the Inter-blockchain communication protocol (IBC)-enabled chains.

Injective Protocol adds support for new assets

A second development helping to bring fresh momentum to Injective has been the addition of new assets to the DEX, including the first-ever decentralized perpetual futures for ATOM.

Along with a perpetual futures contract for ATOM, Injective also added spot trading for the Cosmos-based project Chihuahua (HUAHUA) and there is also an active community vote to add Juno.

The addition of new assets helped lead to an increase in trading volume on the protocol over the past few days after hitting its lowest level in several months on Feb. 2.

Inject DEX daily trading volume. Source: Injective

While it has excited the Injective community to see an uptick in trading volume on the protocol, it's worth noting that the current volume is but a small fraction of the volume seen on the top perpetual futures protocol dYdX, which saw a daily volume of $3.2 billion on Feb. 10 and $2.8 billion on Feb. 11.

Related: Is the rise of derivatives trading a risk to retail crypto investors?

TVL soars

The release of Injective Bridge v2 was also followed by a surge in the total value locked on the platform, and data from DeFi Llama shows the metric hitting a new all-time high.

Total value locked on Injective. Source: Defi Llama

As of Feb. 11, the total value looked on Injective is $147.35 million, an increase of more than $100 million from its low of $43.96 million on Jan. 23.

The TVL on INJ consists of assets that are deposited for trading purposes as well as INJ tokens that are staked on the network earning an APR of 9.15%.

VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro also began to detect a bullish outlook for INJ on Feb. 6 prior to the recent price rise.

The VORTECS™ Score, exclusive to Cointelegraph, is an algorithmic comparison of historical and current market conditions derived from a combination of data points including market sentiment, trading volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity.

VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. INJ price. Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ Score for INJ spiked into the green zone and hit a high of 75 on Feb. 6, around 39 hours before the price began to increase 117% over the next three days.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

From Premiums to Discounts: Bitcoin’s Wild Ride Splits Global Markets

TMX Group Canada to unveil crypto futures product later this year

The news from TMX Group arrives as cryptocurrencies are increasingly gaining interest from investors and companies.

In response to institutional investors' concerns about the risks of trading in a new asset class, TMX Group, Canada's major stock market operator, has revealed plans to launch its first-ever crypto futures product.

While speaking to Reuters, TMX Group's John McKenzie said that the firm plans to release the product on the Montreal Exchange later this year. According to Mackenzie, "more institutional investors and dealers are [...] holding more crypto assets within their portfolios or for their clients or in ETFs," adding they are working on how to mitigate risk due to crypto's huge volatility.

Cointelegraph reached out to TMX Group for more details regarding this development. This article will be updated pending new information.

Cryptocurrency assets have suffered significant drops in recent months as investors sought safer investments amid expectations of interest rate hikes by central banks. They've made progress in recovering some of their losses in recent weeks, with Bitcoin (BTC) regaining past the $42K mark and the price of Ether (ETH) pulling back to retest $3,000 support levels.

The news from TMX Group arrives as cryptocurrencies are increasingly gaining interest from investors and organizations. The most well-known example is business intelligence software firm MicroStrategy, which has converted all of its cash reserves into Bitcoin and even raised debt to finance further purchases.

Related: MicroStrategy CEO won’t sell $5B BTC stash despite crypto winter

As reported by Cointelegraph earlier this week, KPMG, one of Canada's top accounting firms, added Bitcoin and Ethereum to its corporate treasury, becoming the latest big firm to convert a portion of its fiat assets into cryptocurrencies.

Electric automaker Tesla was holding nearly $2 billion in Bitcoin on its balance sheet at the end of 2021, according to official records published on Monday. According to Bitcoin Treasuries data, forty publicly listed businesses now hold BTC.

From Premiums to Discounts: Bitcoin’s Wild Ride Splits Global Markets

Bitcoin dated futures with physical settlement go live on Eqonex

Eqonex previously said it was engaged in discussions on the potential merger or takeover options in late 2021.

The Nasdaq-listed digital assets financial services company Eqonex has launched a new type of Bitcoin (BTC) investment product, a BTC dated futures contract with a physical settlement.

Announcing the news on Wednesday, Eqonex explained that its BTC dated futures are denominated in the USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin and increase in parallel with the BTC price increase against USDC.

In contrast to perpetual futures, which have no maturity limit, dated futures expire at a pre-set date and time frame like each month or each quarter, Eqonex noted. “Any position in a perpetual future stays open until the trader decides to close the trade by executing an offsetting trade, or until the trade gets liquidated by Eqonex,” the firm added.

According to the announcement, the Eqonex BTC dated futures contract expires at 08:00 UTC on the final Friday of the expiry month, with physical settlement occurring automatically on the expiry date. Users can trade the new BTC futures contract with leverage.

Eqonex also expects to introduce dated futures for additional cryptocurrencies including Ether (ETH) “in the coming months.”

Eqonex’s interim CEO Andrew Eldon pointed out that there is still a “gap in the exchange marketplace to better serve traders who are looking for safe access to products and strategies from traditional finance to exploit and hedge against the volatility of crypto market trading.”

“We are removing the barriers to entry by delivering a regulated crypto exchange, and by adding institutional-grade products to our customers’ toolkits,” Eldon said.

Related: Derivatives are coming to Coinbase, following purchase of FairX

The news comes soon after Eqonex announced that it was engaged in strategic discussions with third parties including the evaluation of merger or takeover options in December 2021. The news came in conjunction with the firm appointing Eldon as interim CEO, replacing former CEO Richard Byworth.

From Premiums to Discounts: Bitcoin’s Wild Ride Splits Global Markets

Bitcoin bulls aim to solidify control over BTC price by flipping $44K to support

Bulls seek to flip $44,000 to support and analysts forecast further upside for BTC, calling the asset “the Amazon of our time.”

Hope for the possibility of another significant rally in the cryptocurrency market has returned, even though Bitcoin (BTC) rejected at $45,500. Currently, bulls are looking to shore up their defense at the $43,000 support level. 

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that after making a run to a weekly high at $45,500 early on Tuesday, bears managed to drop the price of BTC to $42,900 during afternoon trading as investors realized profits and prepare to place bids around $38,000.

BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

Here’s a look at what analysts are saying sparked the rally in BTC price over the past week and what levels to keep an eye on moving forward.

Legitimate breakout or a short squeeze?

The sudden move higher caught many traders off guard as headlines across the crypto space were predicting the onset of an extended bear market, but such dire warnings may have been premature based on data from a recent report from Glassnode. The blockchain analysis firm stated that “prices have bounced off a number of fundamental levels that have historically signaled undervaluation or a ‘fair value' price.”

Through analyzing the data of liquidations on futures exchanges, Glassnode surmised that while the Long Liquidation Dominance charts “show that shorts have been on the back-foot this week, with a minor skew towards short side liquidations,” the lackluster magnitude of this metric indicates “that it is unlikely that price upside is being primarily driven by a short squeeze."

Bitcoin futures open interest daily change. Source: Glassnode

Glassnode noted that during previous instances of major price declines, the futures open interest (OI) saw significant drawdowns or “de-leveraging events” as shown by the large downward red spikes on the graph above, a feature which is noticeably absent from this latest price decline.

Glassnode said,

“This may indicate the probability of a short squeeze is lower than first estimated, or that such an event remains possible should the market continue higher, reaching clusters of short seller stop-loss/liquidation levels.”

“We’re still in a traders' market”

The forces in the wider financial markets that are impacting Bitcoin price were addressed by David Lifchitz, managing partner and chief investment officer at ExoAlpha, who highlighted the recent correlation between BTC and tech-stocks and questioned what it will take for “Bitcoin to get its destiny back in its own hands.”

According to Lifchitz, “stocks are still in ‘la-la-land’ whereas bonds are more in reality,” helping to provide a clearer picture as to the strength of the global financial markets based on the fact that “bonds tend to lead the way for stocks, and bonds are already struggling.”

When it comes to what comes next for BTC, Lifchitz offered reassuring words for bulls worried about the large head and shoulders pattern on the BTC chart, stating that the pattern was "invalidated by the recent bounce in BTC price."

Moving forward, Lifchitz identified the near-term targets for Bitcoin at $48,000, $51,000 and $53,000 but warned that there is a possibility for a “pullback to the mid/high $30,000s” before hitting $53,000.

Lifchitz said,

“In the meantime, we're still in a traders' market with opportunities to grab a few points here and there between the soft targets: profits should be quickly taken off the table on each small pullback, then rinse, repeat. Without any macro catalyst, it's hard to see Bitcoin trend much higher in a straight line.”

Related: DoJ seizes $3.6B in crypto and arrests two in connection with 2016 Bitfinex hack

Bitcoin is “the Amazon of our time”

A final bit of insight into the price action for Bitcoin as it compares to the growth of Amazon stock price was offered by analysts at Macro Hive, a financial market research outlet that considers Bitcoin to be “the Amazon of our time.”

Macro Hive highlighted that “even Amazon suffered large drawdowns that took years to recover from” and they suggested that “your exposure to Bitcoin needs to be appropriately sized so that you can survive 50% to 80% drawdowns.”

Amazon stock price performance. Source: MacroHive

MacroHive said,

“But major drawdowns also provide good entry levels for exposure. Our metrics suggest that we are getting closer to that point, so we would consider accumulating exposure. However, we would not go max long in an environment of rising central bank rates and falling global growth momentum.”

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.949 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 41.7%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

From Premiums to Discounts: Bitcoin’s Wild Ride Splits Global Markets