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Bitcoin futures open interest on CME nears 2021 all-time high

December 6, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

The futures positioning on CME shows Bitcoin could still move higher from its current price, says IG Australia analyst Tony Sycamore.

Bitcoin (BTC) futures open interest has reached $5.2 billion on the global derivatives giant Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), $200 million shy of its late October 2021 all-time high.

Open interest in CME’s Bitcoin futures has grown from $3.63 billion to $5.20 billion over the last 30 days, according to Coinglass data.

*CME’s Bitcoin futures open interest reached $5.2 billion on Dec. Source: Coinglass*

From Oct.

The rapid uptick in open interest also coincided with a drastic price jump for Bitcoin, which grew from $45,000 to $66,000.

IG Australia analyst Tony Sycamore told Cointelegraph the open interest uptick shows a renewed interest in Bitcoin, but it doesn’t explain how CME traders are positioned.

Sycamore pointed to CME’s Nov. 28 report to the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, which showed the “big players” on its platform were sitting net short at the time, with 20,724 short positions compared to 18,979 longs, Sycamore explained.

*Futures positions on CME had been net short as of Nov. Source: CFTC*

Until CME’s latest report comes through on Tuesday, Dec.

“What we can’t see right now is whether the big players have gone from a net short to a net long, Sycamore said.

The massive uptick in Bitcoin’s price is being driven by more than just speculation around the SEC’s potential approval of a roster of spot ETF products, Sycamore added.

Spot ETF-induced Bitcoin rally isn’t guaranteed to stick: Analysts

November 2, 2023 Coin Telegraph

bitcoin bull market

Investors will likely see Bitcoin surge even more when a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved, but other factors are needed for the rally to sustain, warn analysts.

While the approval of a spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) will likely spike the price of Bitcoin, some analysts are concerned it won’t be enough to fully thaw the markets from its winter chill.

On Oct. 24 Bitcoin staged its largest single day rally in over a year, surging more than 14% on the news that the ticker of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF — IBTC — had been listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) website, something markets understood as a positive step forward for the funds’ application.

The surge turned out to be even stronger than that of oOct. 16, when Cointelegraph’s incorrect tweet that suggested a spot Bitcoin ETF had been approved.

Speaking to Cointelegraph, pseudonymous trader TheFlowHorse — who boasts 184,000 followers on X — said that the two market blips can be seen as a hint of Bitcoin’s price action should a spot Bitcoin ETF be approved.

Addressing the two developments and its impact on Bitcoin,Horse added that investors could expect to see a move of “the same, if not greater magnitude” if the ETF is approved.

*The price of Bitcoin surged to north of $35k on Oct. 24. Source: TradingView*

However, Horse notes that while approval will likely drive prices significantlyupward, it’s also likely it will be followed by an eventual retrace in the mid-term.

This is because, in Horses’ view, the trade will be crowded heavily by eager investors looking to chase the news.

“You're going to have a ton of crowding… and that's ultimately an inefficient move. The inefficient moves get refilled and retrace to some degree,” he added.

Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG international, told Cointelegraph that he expects to see Bitcoin continue to surge through new yearly highs on the day of the announcement, while Rachel Lucas, a technical analyst at Australian crypto exchange BTC Markets, said the approval of BlackRock’s ETF will act as a catalyst for the rest of the traditional finance sector.

“This participation not only amplifies institutional capital inflows but also heightens retail curiosity, contributes to supply limitations, and underscores the deflationary aspect of Bitcoin.”

Here's a short clip of @kaileyleinz asking Gensler about $GBTC and other spot #Bitcoin ETFs. Mostly non-answers in my opinion but does talk about the disclosure review team. We've had some insight into their process via the amendments from some of these filers in recent days pic.twitter.com/lIWZc74OAi
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) October 18, 2023

However, while Sycamore said there’s a chance the “rally could stick” — a full-scale trend reversal for Bitcoin seems unlikely given that interest rates remain considerably higher than they were when Bitcoin notched its previous all-time-high.

Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC markets also believes it would be worthwhile to adopt a more cautious stance, as there’s no guarantee of an all-out trend reversal.

“Bitcoin still lacks the fundamentals to support a quantitative valuation like shares and does not have the scope of utilization like commodities. Approval by the SEC can not change the nature of it being a speculative asset.”

“Macro changes will have a major impact on the crypto markets, which usually start building an upside trend during a Fed rate cut cycle,” Teng concluded.

The certainty and timing of a spot Bitcoin ETF approval is still up for debate. While unlikely, ETF analysts said that SEC Chair Gary Gensler could be waiting until the very last minute to pull off an “amazingly sadistic” denial of the impending applications.

While analysts from JP Morgan claimed in an Oct. 17 investment note that an approval could arrive within the next few months, the general consensus — held by Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas — peg the chances of an approval by Jan. 10 next year at 90%.

I've gotten a lot of questions regarding my current view on Spot #Bitcoin ETFs over the last couple weeks. This is the first section of the note I put out yesterday with @EricBalchunas.

TLDR: Our view hasn't changed much https://t.co/dRAm5IsdQf pic.twitter.com/Htsi3n2XxV
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) October 13, 2023

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Crypto market sentiment at highest point since BTC’s $69K all-time high

October 25, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Crypto market sentiment at highest point since BTC’s K all-time high

Bitcoin

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has returned to levels not seen since the peak crypto market rally of November 2021.

Bitcoin (BTC) market sentiment has returned to levels not seen since its price reached $69,000 in mid-November 2021, according to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.

The index is now at 72 out of a total possible score of 100, placing it within the “greed” ranking — a six-point increase from Oct. 24 and a 16-point bounce from its 50-point “neutral” rank on Oct. 18.

The strengthening market sentiment follows a wave of excitement that BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) could be inching toward approval by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.

On Oct. 24, Bitcoin staged its largest single-day rally in over a year, recording a 14% daily gain as its price briefly moved above the $35,000 mark.

*Fear & Greed Index score. Source: Alternative.me*

The index gathers and weighs data from six market key performance indicators — volatility (25%), market momentum and volume (25%), social media (15%), surveys (15%) Bitcoin’s dominance (10%) and trends (10%) — to score market sentiment each day.

Nov. 14, 2021, was the last time the index reached a score of 72, just four days after BTC notched its all-time high of $69,044 on Nov. 10, 2021, according to CoinGecko data.

The index recorded its lowest-ever score of 7 on June 16, 2022, after the collapse of Do Kwon’s Terra Money ecosystem.

*Fear & Greed Index scores since Feb. 2018. Source: Alternative.me*

The fallout from the Terra collapse triggered a cascade of price-dampening effects which later claimed hedge fund Three Arrows Capital and crypto lender Voyager Digital as casualties, among others.

Following the wave of excitement for spot ETFs, crypto investment firm Galaxy Digital has predicted that the price of Bitcoin could increase by more than 74% in the first year following a successful approval.

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Additional reporting by Tom Mitchelhill.

Coinbase hoses down rumors of weekly withdrawal limits on Bitcoin

October 24, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin Price

Coinbase has denounced rumors of it imposing Bitcoin withdrawal limits circulating on social media as inaccurate.

Crypto exchange Coinbase has refuted rumors it had imposed a $5,000 per week limit on Bitcoin (BTC) withdrawals after a user's post claiming as such gained traction on social media.

An Oct. 24 post from a user on X (formerly Twitter) claimed that he’d been hit with a purported policy that restricted his withdrawals of Bitcoin from Coinbase to a maximum threshold of $5,000 a week.

The post gained over 250,000 views, with more than 420 retweets and nearly 2,000 likes. The post also gained attention of crypto researcher Chris Blec, who asked if anyone could verify the claim being made.

. @Coinbase is limiting bitcoin withdrawls. I just tried to send BTC from Coinbase to my cold wallet, and encountered a NEW $5k/wk withdrawl limit policy (implemented 10/13). I've been a Coinbase customer for 10 years. GET YOUR BITCOIN OFF EXCHANGES!!!!
— Colin Brown (@thecolinbrown) October 23, 2023

However, a spokesperson from Coinbase told Cointelegraph that these claims were “inaccurate” and that no such policy existed that limited withdrawals when selling to Coinbase cash balance.

“Withdrawing from Coinbase will be dependent on the payment method you are using to withdraw,” said the spokesperson, and suggested that users consult the crypto exchange’s official policy on account limits and withdrawals.

The unfounded rumors of withdrawal limits came around the same time that Coinbase experienced brief difficulty in processing trades.

According to Coinbase’s official status page, the crypto exchange began experiencing difficulties processing trades around 6pm UTC Oct. 23.

Less than an hour later, the exchange provided an update saying that the issue had been fixed and the team were monitoring trading activity for any ongoing issues.

*Coinbase trading suffered difficulties for nearly an hour on Oct. 23. Source: Coinbase*

The trading delays on Coinbase occurred amid a frenzy of trading activity throughout the market, as the price of Bitcoin (BTC) surged as high as $35,000 — a level not seen since May last year.

Magazine: How to protect your crypto in a volatile market — Bitcoin OGs and experts weigh in

Is Uptober here? Bitcoin, Ethereum suddenly pumps, wiping $70M in shorts

October 2, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Is Uptober here? Bitcoin, Ethereum suddenly pumps, wiping M in shorts

bitcoin etf

The price of Bitcoin and Ethereum surged nearly 4% in just a 15-minute window, sparking bullish predictions for the remainder of October.

More than $70 million in crypto shorts were suddenly liquidated after a surprise jump in the price of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and other cryptocurrencies on Oct. 1.

According to data from TradingView, the sudden pump saw Bitcoin surge 3% in just 15 minutes from $27,100 to $28,053 before settling down just below the $28,000 mark at the time of publication.

Happy Uptober to those who celebrate.

Remember 2021? pic.twitter.com/qgHy1ThGOf
— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) October 2, 2023

Similarly, the price of Ethereum’s native currency Ether also surged, gaining as much as 4.7% in a brief spike to $1,755 before leveling out to $1,727 at the time of publication.

The sudden movement has left most in the community scratching their heads. Many commentators said the move aligned with the arrival of “Uptober.”

Welcome to Uptober.

Welcome to Q4, which is leading towards a great quarter, potentially fueled by ETF approvals and the pre-halving rally.

Potentially #Bitcoin to $40,000 is reasonable.
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) October 1, 2023

Other community members suggested that “someone knows something” that others don’t.

Uptober is crypto parlance for October typically being a bullish month for the price action of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. According to data from CoinGlass, October has only produced negative monthly returns twice since 2013.

*Bitcoin monthly returns since 2013. Source: Coinglass.*

One of the events that the crypto market is looking to with optimism is the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF product by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. However, most analysts are tipping Jan. 2024 as the most likely date for such an announcement.

Meanwhile, while those holding spot and long positions may have celebrated the first significant price action in over a month, short sellers have had the opposite luck.

The rapid uptick saw $70 million in short positions liquidated in just two hours.

*More than $70 million worth of shorts were liquidated in the last 2 hours. Source: Coinglass*

According to data from Coinglass, nearly $36 million worth of BTC shorts and $23 million worth of ETH shorts were “rekt” by the sudden price move.

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Bitcoin ETFs or not, don’t expect a ‘sexy’ crypto bull run: Concordium founder

September 22, 2023 Coin Telegraph

bitcoin bull market

Experts remain divided on when the next bull market is set to kick off, but they all agree on one thing: the next big rally won’t look like the last one.

The next crypto bull run will look nothing like the last one and investors should tame their expectations of an imminent rocketing of cryptocurrency prices.

At least that’s what Lars Seier Christensen, the founder of enterprise blockchain Concordium told Cointelegraph in a recent interview.

As the majority of the crypto market looks to the swathe of proposed spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds with bullishness, Christiensen is doubtful their approval will be an immediately meaningful driver for the crypto markets.

“Even if you do get a Bitcoin rally — I don't think you should naturally assume that everything is going to rally with it.”

“Does that necessarily mean that Ethereum and a lot of the older altcoins are going to rally on the back of it too? I think that's nearly certain not going to happen,” he added.

NEXT DATES TO WATCH:

Middle of October are the next major days to watch. Namely October 16th. (& @GlobalXETFs' Oct 7)

Also, reminder that we fully expected delays on this round of spot #Bitcoin ETF filings. Would have been a shock if they were approved this week. pic.twitter.com/i14fg8FWun
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) August 31, 2023

Christiensen said that while digital asset prices have dampened over the last 18 months, in contrast, there’s an unabated interest in blockchain technology from the corporate side.

This means that the next big step for the industry won't be marked by a particularly “sexy” rally, where prices of crypto assets surge like they did in 2021 — rather a more subdued growth that will occur gradually over the next 18 months, noting:

“The only reason corporate types need a crypto asset is in order to execute what they want to do on a given blockchain. So, I think it's very clear that you need to be aware that they're not in desperate need for a given crypto to increase significantly in value."

Not everyone would be inclined to agree with Christensen, however.

Ben Simpson, the founder of crypto education platform Collective Shift said there’s a wealth of data and indicators that suggest that we’re already witnessing the initial stages of a Bitcoin bull market.

“The drawdown from All-Time High chart and Market Value to Realized Value Ratio (MVRV) suggest we're in the final stages of accumulation, often a precursor to a bull market,” explained Simpson.

When it comes to the assets most primed for a major boom, Simpson believes the next bull market will blow wind into the sails of Bitcoin, Ether (ETH) and application-specific tokens and sectors like gaming.

“DeFi tokens are risky but offer significant upside, and Bitcoin I believe emerges as the 'silent winner' amid broader adoption and one I'm most bullish on.”

“A Bitcoin ETF won’t have any impact on the price” pic.twitter.com/ArSTwskEec
— Ben Simpson (@bensimpsonau) September 13, 2023

The last two-year period has been tough for the crypto industry. An increasingly hawkish federal reserve combined with a number of high-profile collapses including the likes of FTX and Celsius Network, have seen investment in the industry dwindle, bringing down the prices of crypto assets along with it.

With the U.S. Federal Reserve deciding to press pause on any interest rate hikes earlier in the week, eToro Markets analyst Josh Gilbert views the broader macro outlook with a sense of optimism.

BREAKING : THE FEDERAL RESERVE HAS JUST PAUSED IT’S INTEREST RATE HIKES AND WILL KEEP INTEREST RATES AT THE CURRENT LEVEL pic.twitter.com/meRkOhhWfh
— GURGAVIN (@gurgavin) September 20, 2023

“We’ve finally got an improving macro environment with rate cuts on the horizon from central banks globally. As rates begin to fall and inflation subsides, investors will take on more risk, deploying more capital into financial markets — and crypto will be front and center,” he said.

Like many market commentators in recent months, Gilbert asserted that next year looks primed for a rally.

“2024 could be a strong year for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The bitcoin halving is the centerpiece of this theory and it’s the major catalyst optimistic investors are focused on.”

However, Tina Teng, a market analyst from CMC Markets explained that it’s far too early to start worrying about whether or not massive gains are on the horizon. Instead, investors should be bracing themselves for a new wave of uncertainty.

“It’s too early to say that it's the start of a bull market in crypto. This would depend on the macro environment and hinge on whether or not central banks are willing to end their rate hike cycles to provide enough liquidity to the markets,” said Teng.

“Tightening monetary policy is behind the decline in riskier asset classes, such as startups, small caps, and cryptocurrencies. In history, the cryptocurrency market’s boom happened during the Fed’s rate cut cycle but not a hiking cycle.”

“The rampant government bond yields and inverted bond yields repeatedly flash warning signals for economic uncertainty ahead.”

#Bitcoin is racing down to realized loss on the 50-day moving average of the RPV ratio.

And if previous cycles tell us anything, this is the last time it happens until the next cycle top!

Each cycle, Bitcoin makes a… pic.twitter.com/Rrw7wYKbvA
— CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) September 1, 2023

Teng says for an imminent bull market thesis to be validated, Bitcoin needs to break through the 50-day moving average and catch a ride on another surge upwards.

Magazine: How to protect your crypto in a volatile market — Bitcoin OGs and experts weigh in

Bitcoin rally

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