Celsius Stories Littered With ‘People Familiar With the Matter’ Sources, Report Claims Lender Struggles With Arguments Over Bankruptcy

June 28, 2022 Bitcoin.com

Co-Founder of Major Crypto Lender Says Bitcoin (BTC) Will Explode by Over 350% – Here’s His Timeline

June 18, 2022 The Daily Hodl

BNB price risks 40% drop as SEC launches probe against Binance

June 7, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Altcoin

Downside risks for BNB also come from a recent Reuter exposé that claims Binance laundered "at least $2.35 billion in illicit funds."

Binance Coin (BNB) price dropped by nearly 7.3% on June 7 to below $275, its lowest level in three weeks.

What's more, BNB price could drop by another 25%–40% in 2022 as its parent firm, Binance, faces allegations of breaking securities rules and laundering billions of dollars in illicit funds for criminals.

Bad news twice in a row

BNB was issued as a part of an initial coin offering (ICO) in 2017 that amassed $15 million for Binance.

The token mainly behaves as a utility asset within the Binance ecosystem, primarily enabling traders to earn discounts on their trading activities. Simultaneously, BNB also functions as a speculative financial asset, which has made it the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

*BNB market capitalization was $45.42 billion as of June 7. Source: CoinMarketCap*

As a result, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is investigating whether the ICO of BNB tokens in 2017 was a sale of securities that should have been registered with the regulator, according to sources contacted by Bloomberg.

So, will all exchanges including binance delist $BNB like they did with $XRP?
— Crypto Mark ❄️ (@MarkCrypto8) June 6, 2022

This risks putting downward pressure on BNB's price, which has already lost more than half of its value after peaking out in May 2021 at around $700.

BNB holds above May–July 2021 support

In addition to the bad news, BNB's plunge also came as a part of a broader correction trend elsewhere in the crypto market, with top coins Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) dipping by 7% and 7.25% on the same day.

$BNB aggressively shorted because of the FUD. pic.twitter.com/BzvGtPcK3d
— Byzantine General (@ByzGeneral) June 6, 2022

Now, BNB tests the 61.8 Fib retracement level (near $274) of the Fibonacci retracement graph sketched from its $10-swing low to $700-swing high. Interestingly, the same level was instrumental as support during the May–July 2021 session that preceded a 170% price rally.

But weak fundamentals, including the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy, have raised BNB's possibility of dropping below the 61.8 Fib line.

If this happens, then BNB's next downside target could be its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) near $200, down about 25% from June 7's price.

The BNB/USD pair's weekly relative strength index (RSI), now at 34, also shows more room to drop until the reading hits 30, an oversold level that indicates buying sentiment.

*BNB/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView*

Meanwhile, a further drop below the 200-week EMA could have BNB eye the 0.786 Fib line near $160 as its support, down by 40% from June 7's price.

Conversely, if BNB manages to hold strong above $274, it could rebound toward the area defined by its 0.5 Fib line around $355 and its 50-week EMA (the red wave) near $380, up over 20% from the current price level.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bloomberg Analyst Predicts Huge Reversal in Gold, Bonds and Bitcoin as One Crypto ‘Revolutionizes’ Fintech

June 5, 2022 The Daily Hodl

Bitcoin price broke to the upside, but where are all the leveraged long traders?

June 1, 2022 Coin Telegraph

basis

BTC price looks to break out of its downtrend, yet pro traders are still unwilling to add leveraged positions.

This week's Bitcoin (BTC) chart leaves little doubt that the symmetrical triangle pattern is breaking to the upside after constricting the price for nearly 20 days. However, derivatives metrics tell a completely different story because professional traders are unwilling to add leveraged positions and are overcharging for downside protection.

*BTC-USD 12-hour price at Kraken. Source: TradingView*

Will BTC reverse course even as macroeconomic conditions crumble?

Whether BTC turns the $30,000 to $31,000 level into support depends to some degree on how global markets perform.

The last time U.S. stock markets faced a seven-week consecutive downtrend was over a decade ago. New home sales in the U.S. declined for the fourth straight month, which is also the longest streak since October 2010.

China saw a whopping 20% year-on-year decline for its on-demand services, the worst change on record. According to government data released on May 30, consumer spending for internet services from January to April stood at $17.7 billion.

The value of stock offerings in Europe also hit the worst level in 19 years after rising interest rates, inflation and macroeconomic uncertainties caused investors to seek shelter in cash positions. According to Bloomberg, initial public offerings and follow-on transactions raised a mere $30 billion throughout 2022.

All of the above make it easier to understand the discrepancy between the recent Bitcoin price recovery to $32,300 and weak derivatives data because investors are pricing higher odds of a downturn, primarily driven by worsening global macroeconomic conditions.

Derivatives metrics are neutral-to-bearish

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets, but they are professional traders' preferred instrument because they avoid the perpetual contracts fluctuating funding rate.

These fixed-month contracts usually trade at a slight premium to spot markets because investors demand more money to withhold the settlement. This situation is not exclusive to crypto markets. Consequently, futures should trade at a 5% to 12% annualized premium in healthy markets.

*Bitcoin 3-month futures’ annualized premium. Source: Laevitas*

According to data from Laevitas, Bitcoin's futures premium has been below 4% since April 12. This reading is typical of bearish markets and it’s worrisome that the metric failed to break above the 5% neutral threshold even as the price moved toward $32,000.

To exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument, traders must also analyze the Bitcoin options markets. The 25% delta skew is optimal as it shows when Bitcoin market makers and arbitrage desks are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

During bearish markets, options investors give higher odds for a price crash, causing the skew indicator to move above 12%. On the other hand, a bull markets' generalized excitement induces a negative 12% or lower skew.

*Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas*

The 30-day delta skew peaked at 25.4% on May 14, the highest-ever record and typical of extremely bearish markets. However, the situation improved on May 30 and 31 as the indicator stabilized at 14%, but it prices in higher odds of a price crash. Still, it shows a moderate sentiment improvement from derivatives traders.

The risks of a global economic slowdown are probably the main reason why Bitcoin options markets are stressed and why the futures premium is still low. The 30-day correlation of BTC versus the S&P 500 index is at 89%, meaning traders have fewer incentives to place bullish bets on cryptocurrencies.

Some metrics suggest that the stock market may have bottomed last week, especially since it’s trading 8.5% above the May 20 intraday low, but weak economic numbers are weighing on investor sentiment. This drives the risk-averse momentum and has a negative impact on cryptocurrency markets.

Until there's a better definition for traditional finance and the world's biggest economies, Bitcoin traders should continue to avoid building leveraged long positions and maintain a bearish stance, a feature that is currently reflected in options markets.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried Says Exchange Looking To Make Multi-Billion Dollar Investments for Expansion: Report

May 30, 2022 The Daily Hodl

Here’s How the Collapse of TerraUSD Will Impact Stablecoins, According to Bloomberg Strategist Mike McGlone

May 19, 2022 The Daily Hodl

Bitcoin’s rocky road to becoming a risk-off asset: analysts investigate

May 6, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Analysis

Bitcoin has long been known as a “store of value,” but is the world’s largest cryptocurrency transitioning to becoming a risk-off asset in 2022?

May 5th was a bloodbath for traditional and cryptocurrency markets. On the worst day of trading since 2020, Bitcoin (BTC) dropped over 7% while the NASDAQ slipped over 5%.

Many hoped for capitulation in the trade and crypto markets, and although the short-term outlook for Bitcoin looks weak, one analyst and some evidence would suggest that Bitcoin is still on course to becoming a risk-off asset.

Markets are by no means maths-based or infallible, but a risk-off asset describes an asset that performs well–or is an asset that investors flock to–when overall market sentiment wanes.

Government bonds are risk-off assets; conversely, tech stocks and cryptocurrencies are considered risk-on assets. Risk-on assets perform well when the overall “mood” in the market is up and when the United States Federal Reserve isn’t hiking interest rates.

Nonetheless, one Bloomberg analyst shared an interesting graph describing “adoption, maturation and Bitcoin beating equities,” implying that Bitcoin may finally be showing its colors as a safe harbor during troubled waters.

The graph shows that volatility in Bitcoin and the performance of Bitcoin is outcompeting that of the Nasdaq 100 stock index:

Crucially, Mike McGlone explained that “the crypto market at the start of May appears as a nascent revolution in fintech and money.”

“The fact that the world’s most fluid, 24/7 trading vehicle — Bitcoin — was down only about 15% in 2022 to May 3 vs. 20% for the Nasdaq 100 Stock Index may portend the crypto transitioning to a risk-off asset.”

Mike McGlone, the author of the report interviewed with Cointelegraph in January this year. McGlone suggested that the transition of Bitcoin to become a risk-off asset “will propel it to $100K in 2022.”

Crucially, he described that “what’s happening to advance money and finance into the 21st century is unstoppable.”

To back up the argument, according to one chart provided by InvestAnswers Youtube, over the past 90 days, Bitcoin is up 6% vs. the Nasdaq’s 12% lows:

Ultimately, Bitcoin has slowly proved itself as a store of value, or Gold 2.0 as the Winkelvoss twins describe it. However, with the worsening macroeconomic backdrop, popular Youtuber Benjamin Cowen says that Bitcoin may not hit $100,000 this year in the current “risk-off” environment–not “until inflation is under control.”

Resultantly, it may still be a tad prescient to call Bitcoin a “risk-off” asset, especially as it wallows in the mid $30,000s.

That said, there are a couple of certainties. Do Kwon will continue to buy Bitcoin in the billions; Michael Saylor will continue to orange pill big name investors, and there will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin.