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Binance Coin regains 20% in a day: Why is BNB seeing such a strong recovery?

BNB price rallied by more than 20% in the last 24 hours due to several key reasons.

The price of Binance Coin (BNB), the native cryptocurrency of Binance and Binance Smart Chain, rallied by more than 20% in the last 24 hours.

BNB/USDT 15-minute price chart (Binance). Source: Tradingview.com

The swift recovery comes after a market-wide correction on April 18, during which major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) saw a sharp decline.

ETH price, for instance, declined from $2,400 to as low as $1,900 in a sudden pullback as Bitcoin plunged below the $60,000 support level to as low as $52,000.

Overheated futures market gets a reset

The market saw a steep pullback in a short period because the futures market was extremely overheated.

Over $10 billion worth of cryptocurrency positions were liquidated on a single day, with Bitcoin accounting for over $5 billion of it.

 Since the drop was more technical than fundamental, and it was a cascade of liquidations that caused the pullback, the market pared most of the losses relatively quickly

It was also evident that the futures market led the correction because the price of major cryptocurrencies was trading lower in the futures market than the spot market.

Adam Cochran, a partner at Cinneanhaim Ventures, explained:

"I think what we saw was a cascade of tightly wound retail positions on a weekend market, get toppled, but somewhere along the line, there was a matching book fail that caused stop-losses to not get hit and when that happened it put a massive $63M position in jeopardy.”

He added that the liquidation of a $63 million position shocked the market, which put even the major cryptocurrencies at risk of a speedy drop.

Cochran added:

"That $63M position getting liquidated is what put the market in major jeopardy, but by that time there was already degraded performance issues connecting to Binance and spiking gas fees. So there was very little way for anyone to backstop or arbitrage that liquidation.”

BNB fundamentals remain strong

After the initial futures market-driven drop, cryptocurrencies with strong fundamentals began to recover first.

While Bitcoin and Ether rebounded relatively quickly by 12% and 15% from their respective lows , BNB outperformed both BTC and ETH within the past 24 hours in its recovery.

The strong performance of BNB stems from two positive catalysts: the record $600 million BNB burn by Binance and the uptrend of Binance Smart Chain metrics.

On April 16, Cointelegraph reported that Binance burned $600 million worth of BNB in the first quarter of 2021, which reduces the circulating supply and suggests the exchange generated at least $750 million in quarterly profit.

Moreover, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao emphasized yesterday that the Binance team has no plans to sell their BNB holdings, 40% of the total supply, in a likely dig at Coinbase insiders reportedly selling $5 billion worth of COIN shares last week. 

Hence, when the market started to recover, BNB saw a stronger rally possibly as a result of a delayed response to the $600 million burn.

Atop the token burn, the daily number of transactions on Binance Smart Chain surpassed 5 million.

Binance Smart Chain number of transactions. Source: Bscscan.com

Since BNB is also the native token of the Binance Smart Chain blockchain network, rising user activity positively affects the value of BNB, contributing to its recovery.

Traders were ready to buy the dip

A pseudonymous trader known as "Altcoin Psycho" stated that traders were ready to buy the dip in the altcoin market.

He said:

"Traders were ready to buy the dip. Was anticipating a market dip all week, yet I got lazy and did a bad job positioning myself for success. Had 10+ alts on my list, only set bids for eth. Thankfully experienced minimal drawdown tonight, but still really played this opportunity poorly. Good learning lesson here."

The quick inflow of capital into the altcoin market shortly after the dip led many altcoins to recover swiftly, which likely catalyzed BNB's upsurge.

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Binance Coin reaches 37% of Ethereum’s market cap: 3 reasons why BNB is soaring

Binance Coin, the native cryptocurrency of Binance Chain, has been surging with a massive uptick in transaction volume.

Binance Coin (BNB), the native cryptocurrency of Binance Chain and top digital asset exchange Binance, is starting to close in on Ether (ETH) in market capitalization. 

As of Monday, BNB is valued at $87 billion at the price of just under $600. The valuation of Ether is hovering at around $246 billion, which is 2.8 times larger than that of Binance Coin.

The technical momentum of BNB has been so strong that it briefly surpassed the volume of the BTC/USDT pair on Binance.

This trend is significant because Tether (USDT) is the biggest stablecoin in the global market, and the BTC/USDT pair is one of the most liquid trading pairs in crypto.

Why is Binance Coin surging so hard?

Binance Coin has been rising due to the three key reasons: an overall uptick in the popularity of Binance Smart Chain, strong technical momentum and the gap between BSC and Ethereum projects.

Binance Smart Chain transaction volume. Source: BSCScan.io

In recent weeks, the transaction volume on Binance Smart Chain has tripled the volume of the Ethereum blockchain.

Particularly in Southeast Asia, the usage of Binance Smart Chain has been rising, according to Coin98, the biggest venture capital firm in Vietnam that is building a DeFi ecosystem targeted at Asia.

Considering that the price of BNB was much lower than Ether until late March, this discrepancy between BNB and ETH likely made BNB a compelling trade.

There is also a big gap in valuations between the Ethereum DeFi ecosystem and Binance Smart Chain, which has been fueling a large portion of the demand for BSC projects.

This has caused the value of BNB to rapidly rise over the past two weeks, while ETH has been relatively stable at just over $2,000.

A journalist who covers crypto in China known as “Wu Blockchain” explained:

“BNB broke through an astonishing $600, but Ethereum’s Fees fell to its lowest point in a month. Although the transaction volume of BSC is 3x that of Ethereum, the two are not in a competitive relationship. The top 10 addresses of BNB hold more than 88%, and Eth is 20%. The future of Ethereum depends on the upgrade of EIP-1559 and 2.0. The only two things Binance needs to worry about are the government suppression and hackers.”

Traders foresee BNB to undergo a more explosive rally in the foreseeable future if it breaks out against Bitcoin.

Kaleo, a pseudonymous cryptocurrency trader, said:

“$BNB breaking above this level on the $BTC pair could lead to the type of explosive momentum needed to actually close in on $1,000.”
BSC/BTC 1-day price chart (Binance). Source: TradingView.com, Kaleo

Will the capital rotate back into Ethereum?

However, Kelvin Koh, the managing partner at Spartan Group — one of the largest DeFi-focused funds in Asia — said that for now, he expects the capital to rotate back into Ethereum as BSC projects near the valuation of ETH equivalents.

He emphasized that there is a huge valuation gap between BSC and Ethereum projects. This gap could be making BSC projects compelling to the market. He said:

“BSC is having its own DeFi summer....so much alpha to be discovered in BSC ($XVS, $CAKE). If you are wondering why Ethereum DeFi coins are lacklustre, it’s because of the huge valuation gap that still exists between the BSC coins and ETH equivalents. Until this gap closes, money isn’t rotating back to ETH DeFi coins.”

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Binance Coin (BNB) market cap passes Santander and UBS — What’s next?

To date, Binance Coin has rallied 900%, which makes the token’s $64 billion market cap larger than Santander, the Bank of Montreal and UBS.

2021 has been an impressive year for Binance Coin (BNB), which so far has rallied by more than 900%. 

One of the primary drivers of BNB's growth was continued congestion on the Ethereum network. As this struggle carried on, Binance Smart Chain (BSC) emerged as an alternative, meeting the rapidly growing decentralized finance (DeFi) sector's demands.

As BNB reached a $64 billion market capitalization, it has surpassed traditional banks, including Santander, the Bank of Montreal, and UBS. Meanwhile, some analysts point to the estimated value and impact of Coinbase's upcoming direct listing ($100-billion valuation) as a catalyst for the BNB price hike.

A common narrative spun up over the past few weeks is that the direct listing of COIN is also adding value to centralized exchange tokens. Analysts are also speculating that other U.S.-based regulated exchanges like Kraken and Gemini will likely follow Coinbase's path and attempt to raise funds through a stock offering.

To understand BNB's potential, one must first understand the differences between equities (stocks). After this is cleared up, it will be possible to analyze the possible drivers of BNB's appreciation.

BNB does not represent shares of Binance

BNB token provides holders with a discount on trading fees, and it is required for those wishing to participate in Binance Launchpad token sales. As BNB gained liquidity, it also became a base pair for other cryptocurrencies at Binance exchange.

Over time, other uses emerged as the Binance Smart Chain gained traction. For example, BNB can cover network fees and as serve as a utility token in the ecosystem, which includes decentralized apps (dApps) and games.

Periodically Binance burns (destroys) some of the non-circulating BNB tokens based on the exchange's overall trading volume. This strategy's efficacy vanished over time as investors understood that these destroyed tokens never entered the circulating supply.

The Binance Smart Chain network uses a Proof of Stake Authority which eliminates the need for miners or expensive transaction fees. The platform kept its compatibility with the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) and has a similar token and smart contract structure.

Many tokenized (or pegged) cryptocurrencies have gained relevance in Binance's networks, allowing users to bypass miner fees. Another benefit provided by Binance Smart Chain's BEP-20 model is staking and farming capabilities in its vast network of decentralized applications, including the PancakeSwap DEX and Venus lending platform.

Decentralized Finance Total Value Locked ranking. Source: DeBank

As shown above, Binance Smart Chain has been gaining ground on other DeFi protocols in terms of total value locked. Thus, new use cases for the BNB token emerged to take center stage as farming, liquidity pools, and base pairs utilized the token throughout the network.

Banks are reliable dividend providers, but DeFi could overtake the system

Equity shareholders are entitled to a piece of a listed companies' net earnings. This amount will vary between each quarter, as the board of directors may opt to repay debt or incorporate some of that money into reserves. However, banks are known cash cows and thus usually a reliable source of dividends payouts.

Santander (SAN) dividends paid over the last 12 months divided by the current stock price yield a 3.7% gain, and Bank of Montreal (BMO) shareholders received a similar yield. Switzerland-based UBS yields went down in 2020, but historically it has averaged 5%.

Bank shareholders effectively have voting rights in shareholders meetings, and minority groups could block measures that would hurt them financially. On the other hand, these equity holders are 100% dependent on the bank's net income and growth.

BNB, on the other hand, could survive without the direct influence of Binance exchange. In the future, if Binance Smart Chain achieves independent developers and validators, its ecosystem might continue to thrive. In theory, if token loses its dependency as the ecosystem grows, becoming less centralized.

If done correctly, BNB's market capitalization could surpass that of the entire traditional banking system, but before this can happen these networks and decentralized applications need to gain adoption and prove that they can stand up to the needs of mainstream investors and banking clients.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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