Bitcoin price recovers $31.5K, but traders say ‘scam’ price action will bring more downside

June 7, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin price recovers .5K, but traders say ‘scam’ price action will bring more downside

BTC price rallied back to a strong resistance level at $31,500, but traders caution that another whipsaw is the most likely outcome.

Bitcoin's (BTC) short-term price action has been dominated by whipsaws that trigger around the $31,000 to $32,000 level and the June 6 reversal at this point triggered a quick sell-off that pushed the price down to $29,200.

Surprisingly, on June 7, the price rapidly reversed course as Bitcoin rallied back to $31,500, but given the current rejection at this level, traders are likely to proceed cautiously, rather than expect a quick surge to $35,000.

*BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView*

Here’s what several analysts are saying about the short-term outlook for BTC and what support levels to keep an eye on moving forward.

A clear redistribution range

The range-bound trading currently impacting Bitcoin was addressed by crypto analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user il Capo of Crypto, who posted the following chart highlighting the “clean range” that BTC has been stuck in for nearly a month.

The analyst said,

“What is happening inside the range and what has happened at the range high, shows that this is [a] clear redistribution range. Clean break of the range low = last leg down confirmed = 21K–23K.”

Ongoing flip-flop price action

A slightly different outcome to the current market chop was suggested by crypto trader and pseudonymous Twitter user Phoenix, who posted the following chart lamenting the month-long range-bound trading for BTC and hinted that it will see more of the same.

Phoenix said,

“On our way towards a whole month inside a mini-range again to fully deploy the flip-flop-your-bias-non-stop-angry-pleb-and-gtfo. *Ppl fomoed the top, lows taken again after the nuke, up we go again?*”

A possible flush out to $20K

For traders trying to get some sense of where the bottom might be, market analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user Rekt Capital posted the following chart highlighting the 200-EMA (exponential moving average) as a key indicator to watch.

According to Rekt Capital, the price history for Bitcoin shows that while it “tends to confirm uptrends when it breaks above the blue 50-week EMA,” on the flip side it “tends to confirm maximum financial opportunity when it reaches and breaks down from the black 200-week EMA.”

A closer look at the recent price action around these indicators was provided in the following chart posted by Rekt Capital to provide a better picture of what support level to look out for.

Rekt Capital said,

“This area is ~confluent with the orange #BTC 200-week MA. In fact, $BTC would need to downside wick below the 200MA to reach the ~$20K area. Interestingly, downside wicking tends to occur below the 200MA to mark out generational bottoms.”

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.24 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 46.4%.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Traders think Bitcoin bottomed, but on-chain metrics point to one more capitulation event

June 6, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin mining

BTC price gravitates around the low $30,000 zone, luring traders to believe the bottom is in, but data from Glassnode warns of another final sell-off.

The bull market euphoria that carried prices to new highs throughout 2021 has given way to bear market doldrums for any Bitcoin (BTC) buyer who made a purchase since Jan. 1, 2021. Data from Glassnode shows these buyers "are now underwater" and the market is gearing up for a final capitulation event.

Bitcoin net unrealized profit/loss. Source: Glassnode

As seen in the graphic above, the NUPL, a metric tha is a measure of the overall unrealized profit and loss of the network as a proportion of the market cap, indicates that “less than 25% of the market cap is held in profit,” which “resembles a market structure equivalent to pre-capitulation phases in previous bear markets.”

Based on previous capitulation events, if a similar move were to occur at the current levels, the price of Bitcoin could drop into a price range of $20,560 to $25,700 in a “full-scale capitulation scenario.”

The market is in search of the bottom

With the crypto market clearly trading in bear market territory, the question on everyone’s mind is “where is the bottom?”

One metric that can help provide some possible guidance is the Mayer Multiple, an oscillator that tracks the ratio between price and the 200-day moving average.

*Mayer Multiple model for Bitcoin. Source: Glassnode*

In previous bear markets, “oversold or undervalued conditions have coincided with the Mayer Multiple falling in the range of 0.6–0.8,” according to Glassnode and that is precisely the range where Bitcoin now finds itself.

Based on the price action from previous bear markets, the recent trading range of Bitcoin between $25,200 and $33,700 lines up with the B phase of the previous bear market cycles and could mark the low of BTC in the current cycle.

The Bitcoin realized price model also offers insight into what a potential price bottom for Bitcoin could be, with the current reading provided by the Bitcoin data provider LookIntoBitcoin suggesting the realized price for BTC is $23,601 as of June 5.

*Bitcoin realized price. Source: LookIntoBitcoin*

Combining these two metrics suggests that the low for BTC could occur in the $23,600 to $25,200 range.

Short term holder and miner capitulation

Selling in the current market conditions has largely been dominated by short-term hodlers, similar to the behavior that was seen during the two previous extended bear markets where long-term holders held more than 90% of the profit in the market.

*Long-term Bitcoin holders share from supply in profit. Source: Glassnode*

The recent drop below $30,000 for Bitcoin saw the percentage of supply in profit spike above 90% for the long-term holder cohort, suggesting short-term holders have “essentially reached a near-peak pain threshold.”

According to Glassnode, miners have also been net sellers in recent months as the decline in BTC has hampered the profitability for miners resulting in “an aggregate miner balance reduction of between 5K and 8K BTC per month.”

*Bitcoin miner net position change. Source: Glassnode*

Should the price of BTC continue to decline from here, the potential for an increase in miner capitulation is not out of the question, as demonstrated in the past by the Puell Multiple, which is the ratio of the daily issuance value of bitcoin to the 365-day moving average of this value.

*Puell multiple vs. BTC price. Source: LookIntoBitcoin*

Historical data shows that the metric has declined into the sub-0.5 zone during the late stages of previous bear markets, which has yet to occur during the current cycle. Based on the current market conditions, a BTC price decline of an additional 10% could lead to a final miner capitulation event that would resemble the price decline and selling seen at the hight of previous bear markets.

On-chain data shows Bitcoin long-term holders continuing to ‘soak up supply’ around $30K

May 30, 2022 Coin Telegraph

On-chain data shows Bitcoin long-term holders continuing to ‘soak up supply’ around K

Bitcoin Price

Despite being underwater on a portion of BTC positions, data shows long-term holders continuing to accumulate Bitcoin in its current range.

Bear markets are typically marked by a capitulation event where discouraged investors finally abandon their positions and asset prices either consolidate as inflows to the sector taper off or a bottoming process begins.

According to a recent report from Glassnode, Bitcoin hodlers are now “the only ones left” and they appear to be “doubling down as prices correct below $30K.”

Evidence of the lack of new buyers can be found looking at the number of wallets with non-zero balances, which has plateaued over the past month, a process that was seen after the crypto market sell-off in May of 2021.

*Number of Bitcoin addresses with a non-zero balance. Source: Glassnode*

Unlike the sell-offs that occurred in March 2020 and November 2018, which were followed by an upswing in on-chain activity that “initiated the subsequent bull runs,” the most recent sell-off has yet to “inspire an influx of new users into the space.” Glassnode analysts say this suggests that the current activity is predominantly being driven by hodlers.

Signs of heavy accumulation

While many investors are disinterested in BTC's sideways price action, contrarian investors view it as an opportunity to accumulate, a point evidenced by the Bitcoin accumulation trend score which “has returned a near perfect score above 0.9” for the past two weeks.

*Bitcoin accumulation trend score. Source: Glassnode*

According to Glassnode, high scores on this metric during bearish trends “generally trigger after a very significant correction in price as investor psychology shifts from uncertainty to value accumulation.”

The idea that Bitcoin is currently in an accumulation phase was also noted by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who posted the following tweet asking his Twitter followers “Why not buy?”

A closer look at the data shows that the recent accumulation has been largely driven by entities with less than 100 BTC and entities with more than 10,000 BTC.

In the recent volatility, the aggregate balance of entities holding less than 100 BTC increased by 80,724 BTC, which Glassnode noted was “remarkably similar to the net 80,081 BTC liquidated by the LUNA Foundation Guard.”

*Bitcoin supply held by entities with less than 100 BTC. Source: Glassnode*

Entities with holdings in excess of 10,000 BTC added 46,269 Bitcoin to their balance during this same time period, while entities holding 100 BTC to 10,000 BTC “maintained a more neutral rating around 0.5, suggesting relatively little net change to their holdings.”

Long-term hodlers are still active

Long-term Bitcoin holders appear to be the main driving force behind the current price action with some actively accumulating and others realizing losses at an average of -27%.

*Bitcoin long term holder spent output profit ratio. Source: Glassnode*

Despite the selling witnessed by some in the long-term holder cohort, the total supply held by these wallets recently returned to its all-time high of 13.048 million BTC.

Glassnode said,

“Unless significant coin redistribution occurs, we can therefore expect this supply metric to commence climbing over the course of the next 3-4 months, suggesting HODLers continue to gradually soak up, and hold onto supply.”

The recent volatility may have pushed out some of the most dedicated Bitcoin holders but the data shows that a majority of serious holders are unwilling to spend their supply “even if it is now held at a loss.”

3 metrics contrarian crypto investors use to know when to buy Bitcoin

May 27, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin mining

Bitcoin price is down, but which dips are the ones to buy? Here are three metrics savvy investors use to determine when to buy BTC.

Buying low and selling high is easier said than done, especially when emotion and volatile markets are thrown into the mix. Historically speaking, the best deals are to be found when there is “blood on the streets,” but the danger of catching a falling knife usually keeps most investors planted on the sidelines.

The month of May has been especially challenging for crypto holders because Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to a low of $26,782, and some analysts are now predicting a sub-$20,000 BTC price in the near future. It’s times like these when fear is running rampant that the contrarian investor looks to establish positions in promising assets before the broader market comes to its senses.

Here’s a look at several indicators that contrarian-minded investors can use to spot opportune moments for opening positions ahead of the next marketwide rally.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index

The Crypto Fear & Greed index is a well-known measure of market sentiment that most investors use to crowd-forecast the near future of the market. If viewed purely at face value, an “extreme fear” reading, such as the current sentiment, is meant to signal to stay out of the market and preserve capital.

*Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative*

The index can actually be used as a market indicator, a point noted by analysts at the cryptocurrency intelligence firm Jarvis Labs.

One of the biggest factors that can help the index rise is an increase in price. Jarvis Labs backtested the idea of buying when the index falls below a certain threshold and then selling when it reaches a predetermined high.

For this test, an index score of 10 was chosen for the low threshold, while scores of 35, 50 and 65 were chosen as sell points.

*Fear & Greed returns for BTC. Source: Jarvis Labs*

When this method was backtested, results showed that the shorter time-frame option of selling once the index surpassed 35, as represented by the yellow line in the chart above, provided the best results. This method provided an annual average return of 14.6% and a cumulative return of 133.4%.

On May 10, the index hit 10 and continued to register a score of 10 or below on six of the 17 days that followed, with the lowest score of 8 happening on May 17.

While it’s possible the market will still head lower in the near term, history indicates that both the price and the index will eventually rise above their current levels, presenting a potential investment opportunity for contrarian traders.

Whale wallet accumulation

Following Bitcoin whale wallets with a balance of 10,000 BTC or more is another indicator that signals when buying opportunities arise.

*Number of Bitcoin addresses with a balance of at least 10,000 BTC. Source: Glassnode*

A close look at the past three months shows that while the market has been selling off, the number of wallets holding at least 10,000 BTC has been climbing.

The number of whale wallets of this size is now at its highest level since February 2021, when Bitcoin was trading above $57,000, and these wallets were selling into strength near the market top.

While many analysts on Crypto Twitter are calling for another 30-plus percent drop in the price of BTC, whale wallets are betting on a positive future.

Some traders buy when Bitcoin price drops below its cost of production

Another metric that can provide insight into when and where to buy is Bitcoin’s average mining cost, which is the amount of money it costs a miner to mine 1 BTC.

*Bitcoin average mining cost. Source: MacroMicro*

As seen on the chart above, the price of Bitcoin has traded at or above the cost of production for a majority of the time since 2017, indicating that the metric is a good indicator of when generational purchasing opportunities arise.

A closer look at the current reading shows that the average mining cost sits at $27,644, around $2,000 below where BTC is trading at the time of writing.

Further analysis shows that in past instances where the market price of BTC fell below the average mining cost, it tended to stay within 10% of the cost to mine and generally managed to regain parity within a couple of months.

Bitcoin mining difficulty also recently hit a new all-time high, and the market continues to see an uptrend as more industrial-sized mining operations come online. This means it’s unlikely that the average cost to mine will see a significant decline anytime soon.

Taken all together, the current cost to mine as compared with the market price of BTC presents a compelling case for the contrarian investor that the widespread fear dominating the market presents an opportunity to be greedy when others are fearful.

Want more information about trading and investing in crypto markets?

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On-chain data flashes Bitcoin buy signals, but the bottom could be under $20K

May 27, 2022 Coin Telegraph

On-chain data flashes Bitcoin buy signals, but the bottom could be under K

Bitcoin Price

Multiple indicators signal that BTC could be in a “buy zone” but analysts caution that its price could still dip below $20,000.

Every Bitcoin investor is searching for signals that the market is approaching a bottom, but the price action of this week suggests that we're just not there yet.

Evidence of this can be found by looking at the monthly return for Bitcoin (BTC), which was hit with a rapid decline that “translated to one of the biggest drawdowns in monthly returns for the asset class in its history,” according to the most recent Blockware Solutions Market Intelligence Newsletter.

*Bitcoin monthly returns. Source: Blockware Solutions*

Bitcoin continues to trade within an increasingly narrow trading range that is slowly being compressed to the downside as global economic strains mount.

Whether the price continues to trend lower is a popular topic of debate among crypto analysts and the dominant opinion current points to further downside.

Analysts will stay bearish until $45,000 is reclaimed

According to Blockware Solutions, there are a variety of indicators that point to a bearish outlook as long as BTC trades below the $45,000 to $47,000 dollar range.

This includes the fact that Bitcoin started off 2022 at $46,200 while the 180-week exponential hull moving average, which gives more weight to recent price action, indicates that the moment for BTC is declining and currently sits at $47,166.

*BTC/USD vs. 180-week exponential hull moving average 1-week chart. Source: Blockware Solutions*

Short-term hodlers, defined as those who have been in the market for less than 155 days, have been especially hard hit by the market weakness with the current short-term holder cost basis sitting at $45,038.

Taken together, these data points suggest that the sentiment for BTC will remain bearish as long as the price is under $45,000.

Where's the bottom?

Despite the current doom and gloom analysis, there are a few signs that the market may be in the process of searching for a bottom.

According to the most recent Glassnode Uncharted newsletter, following the early May drop below $30,000 for Bitcoin, “network activity increased as more supply changed hands while the network shed value.”

*Bitcoin entity-adjusted NVT. Source: Uncharted*

According to Glassnode,

“This phenomenon has historically signaled a great buying opportunity.”

To further support the claim that Bitcoin is currently in a good buy zone, the report pointed to the entity-adjusted dormancy flow, which has been consolidating within an area that had previously been considered a optimal purchase zone.

*Bitcoin entity-adjusted dormancy flow vs. Bitcoin entity-adjusted dormancy. Source: Uncharted*

Blockware Solutions, likewise, sees several data points that suggest the market may be in search of a bottom, including the Mayer Multiple, a metric that compares the current market price to the 200–day moving average, which is currently “near some of the lowest readings on record.”

*Bitcoin Mayer Multiple. Source: Blockware Solutions*

While multiple data points confirm that the crypto market is in a bear market, there are indications that seller exhaustion may be reaching its limit and that the market is searching for a bottom. Where that will eventually be found remains unknown, but several indicators currently point to a solid level of support near the $21,000 level.

Falling wedge pattern points to eventual Ethereum price reversal, but traders expect more pain first

May 26, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin Price

ETH dropped below a key support in its USD and BTC pair, but analysts say a bullish trading pattern could eventually spark a sharp trend reversal.

The cryptocurrency market was hit with another round of selling on May 26 as Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped to $28,000 and Ether (ETH) briefly fell under $1,800. The ETH/BTC pair also dropped below what traders deem to be an important ascending trendline, a move that traders say could result in Ether price correcting to new lows.

*ETH/USDT 1-day chart. Source: TradingView*

Here’s a rundown of what several analysts in the market are saying about the move lower for Ethereum and what it could mean for its price in the near term.

Price consolidation will eventually result in a sharp move

A brief check-in on what levels of support and resistance to keep an eye on was provided by independent market analyst Michaël van de Poppe, who posted the following chart showing Ether trading near its range low.

Van de Poppe said,

“The question will be whether we can bounce from here and break the $1,940 level. If that happens, I'm assuming we'll continue $2,050. If it doesn't, then the markets are looking at
ETH could make new lows into a bullish falling wedge
According to Twitter analyst Crypto Tony, Ether price is “still looking for that leg down to load up on.”
ETH/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Twitter
While it might look negative, this development is actually a positive sign, according to Cointelegraph contributor Jon Morgan, who noted that the pattern outlined on this chart is a falling wedge, a “bullish standard candlestick/bar chart pattern that is indicative of a market that has moved to an extreme and is likely to reverse."
Morgan said,
“Very high expectancy rate of creating either a violent corrective move higher or an entirely new uptrend.”
Related: Ethereum price dips below the $1.8K support as bears prepare for Friday’s $1B options expiry
Bitcoin dominance rises
ETH/BTC 1-day chart. Source: Twitter
According to economist Caleb Franzen, the ETH/BTC pair lost a key support and this is notable because:
“This means that at least one of these statements will be true: $ETH is weakening relative to $BTC; $BTC will outperform $ETH; Alts will underperform $BTC.”
Adding to the ETH/BTC discussion, Twitter user CrediBULL Crypto noted that the price is “starting to take some of our local lows.”
ETH/BTC 3-day chart. Source: Twitter
The analyst said,
“Any relief here is temporary until we traverse to the bottom of this range, imo. In fact, we may head even lower than pictured here before staging a recovery, but will assess once we hit my target.”
In general, continued weakness with the ETH/BTC pair has the potential to result in the price of Ether and altcoins trending lower while BTC could hold at its current price or even head higher as traders rotate out of underperforming positions into Bitcoin.
The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.235 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 46.2%.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

‘Extreme fear’ grips Bitcoin price, but analysts point to signs of a potential reversal

May 25, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin Price

Sideways crypto price action persists as the Federal Reserve confirms its plan to continue raising interest rates, but analysts spot a silver lining.

The cryptocurrency market settled into a holding pattern on May 25 after traders opted to sit on the sidelines ahead of the midday Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting where the Federal Reserve signaled that it intends to continue on its path of raising interest rates. According to data from Alternative.me, the Fear and Greed Index seeing its longest run of extreme fear since the market crash in Mach 2020.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the price action for Bitcoin (BTC) has continued to compress into an increasingly narrow trading range, but technical analysis indicators are not providing much insight on what direction a possible breakout could take.

Here’s a look at what analysts think could come next for Bitcoin price.

Whales accumulate as Bitcoin battles to reclaim $30,000

*BTC/USDT 15-minute chart. Source: Twitter*

According to market analyst Michaël van de Poppe, "#Bitcoin broke through $29.4K and ran towards the next resistance zone. If we hold $29.4K, we'll be good towards $32.8K. Finally.”

One interesting thing to note at these price levels is that while the predominant sentiment is that of extreme fear, on-chain intelligence firm Santiment pointed out that whale wallets have taken this as an opportunity to accumulate some well-priced BTC.

*Bitcoin price vs. supply distribution. Source: Santiment*

Santiment said,

“As #Bitcoin continues treading water at $29.6K, the amount of key whale addresses (holding 100 to 1k $BTC) continues rising after the massive dumping from late January. We've historically seen a correlation between price & this tier's address quantity.”

Price could still pull back to $22,500

A macro perspective on how Bitcoin performs following the appearance of a death cross was offered by pseudonymous Twitter user Rekt Capital, who posted the following chart outlining what to expect if the “historical price tendencies relating to the #BTC Death Cross repeat [...]”

Rekt Capital said,

“$BTC will breakdown from the Macro Range Low support & continue its drop to complete -43% downside. The -43% mark is confluent with the 200-Week MA at ~$22500.”

“A pivotal retest”

The importance of the current price level for Bitcoin was touched upon by economist Caleb Franzen, who posted the following chart looking at the long-term performance of BTC versus its weekly anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP) noting that “This is a pivotal retest, similar to the dynamics in March 2022.”

*BTC/USD vs AVWAP 1-week chart. Source: Twitter*

Franzen said,

“A rebound on the weekly AVWAP from the COVID low could increase bullish probabilities. A breakdown below it would drastically increase bearish probabilities, foreshadowing a retest of the grey range, $13.8k-19.8k.”

The overall cryptocurrency market cap now stands at $1.265 trillion and Bitcoin’s dominance rate is 44.8%.

Crypto funds under management drop to a low not seen since July 2021

May 24, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Assets

Outflows from digital asset funds reached $141 million last week, a figure not seen since July 2021.

Digital asset investment products saw $141 million in outflows during the week ending on May 20, a move which reduced the total assets under management (AUM) by institutional funds down to $38 billion, the lowest level since July 2021.

According to the latest edition of CoinShare’s weekly Digital Asset Fund Flows report, Bitcoin (BTC) was the primary focus of outflows after experiencing a decline of $154 million for the week. The removal of funds coincided with a choppy week of trading that saw the price of BTC oscillate between $28,600 and $31,430.

Despite the sizable outflow, the month-to-date BTC flow for May remain positive at $187.1 million, while the year-to-date figure stands at $307 million.

On a more positive note, the multi-asset category of investment products managed to record a total of $9.7 million worth of inflows last week. This brings the yearly total inflow into these products to $185 million, representing 5.3% of the total AUM.

CoinShares pointed to the uptick in volatility as a possible source for the increased inflows into multi-asset investment products, which can be seen as “safer relative to single line investment products during volatile periods.” So far in 2020, these investment products have only experienced two weeks of outflows.

Cardano and Polkadot led the altcoin inflows with increases of $1 million each, followed by $700,000 worth of inflows into XRP and $500,000 into Solana (SOL).

*Flows by asset during the week ending May 20, 2022. Source: CoinShares*

Out of all the assets covered, Ethereum (ETH) has seen the worst performance so far this year with $44 million worth of outflows in the month of May bringing its year-to-date figure to $239 million.

Strengthening dollar continues to impact crypto market sentiment

The declining interest in digital asset investment products comes amidst the backdrop of a strengthening dollar, which has been “one of the most important macro factors driving asset prices over the last 6 months” according to cryptocurrency market intelligence firm Delphi Digital.

*U.S. dollar currency index. 1-week chart. Source: Delphi Digital*

As shown on the chart above, the Dollar Index (DXY) has risen from 95 at the start of 2022 to 102 on May 23, a year-to-date gain of 6.8%. This marks the fastest year-over-year change for the DXY in recent history and led to a breakout from the range it had been stuck in for the past 7-years.

Delphi Digital said,

“This DXY strength has been a consistent drag to risk asset performances over this same time period.”

Contrarian Bitcoin investors identify buy zones even as extreme fear grips the market

May 19, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin mining

A popular BTC price metric points to “extreme fear” in the market, but contrarian investors say multiple on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin is in buy territory.

Bitcoin (BTC) support at the $30,000 level has proven to be quite resilient amidst the turmoil of the past two weeks with many tokens in the top 100 now showing signs of consolidation after prices bounced off their recent lows.

*Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me*

During high volatility and sell-offs, it's difficult to take a contrarian view and traders might consider putting some distance from all the noise and negative news-flow to focus on their core convictions and reason for originally investing in Bitcoin.

Several data points suggest that Bitcoin could be approaching a bottom which is expected to be followed by a lengthy period of consolidation. Let's take a look at what experts are saying.

BTC may have already reached "max pain"

The spike in realized losses by Bitcoin holders was touched on by 'Root' a pseudonymous analyst who tweeted the following chart and said realized losses are “reaching bear market highs.”

*Bitcoin realized profit/loss. Source: Twitter*

While previous bear markets have seen a greater level of realized losses than are currently present, they also suggest that the pain could soon begin to subside, which would allow Bitcoin to begin the slow path to recovery.

Analysts have also pointed out that "Bitcoin's RSI is now entering a period that has historically preceded outsized returns on investment for long-term investors.”

According to Rekt Capital,

“Previous reversals from this area include January 2015, December 2018, and March 2020. All bear market bottoms.”

Strong hands hold firm

Additional on-chain evidence that Bitcoin may soon see a revival was provided by Jurrien Timmer, Global Director of Macro at Fidelity. According to the Bitcoin Dormancy Flow, a metric that displays the dormancy flow for Bitcoin that “roughly speaking is a measure of strong vs. weak hands.”

*Bitcoin dormancy flow. Source: Twitter*

Timmer said,

“The entity-adjusted dormancy flow from Glassnode is now at the lowest level since the 2014 and 2018 lows.”

One metric that suggests that the weak hands may be nearing capitulation is the Advanced NVT signal, which looks at the Network Value to Transactions Ratio (NVT) and includes standard deviation (SD) bands to identify when Bitcoin is overbought or oversold.

*Advanced NVT signal. Source: LookIntoBitcoin*

As shown on the chart above, the advanced NVT signal which is highlighted in light blue is now more than 1.2 standard deviations below the mean, suggesting that Bitcoin is currently oversold.

Previous instances of the NVT signal falling below the -1.2 SD level have been followed by increases in the price of BTC, although it can sometimes take several months to manifest.

Hash rate hits a new all-time high

Aside from complex on-chain metrics, there are several other factors that suggest Bitcoin could see a boost in momentum in the near future.

Data from Glassnode shows that the hashrate for the Bitcoin network is now at an all-time high, indicating that there has been a substantial increase in investments in mining infrastructure with the most growth happening in the United States.

*Bitcoin mean hash rate vs. BTC price. Source: Glassnode*

Based on the chart above, the price of BTC has historically trended higher alongside increases in the mean hash rate, suggesting that BTC could soon embark on an uptrend.

One final bit of hope can be found looking at the Google Trends data for Bitcoin, which notes a spike in search interest following the recent market downturn.

*Interest in searching for Bitcoin over time. Source: Google Trends*

Previous spikes in Google search interest have largely coincided with an increase in the price of Bitcoin, so it's possible that BTC could at least see a relief bounce in the near future if sidelined investors see this as an opportunity to scoop up some Satoshis at a discount.

Bitcoin price predictions abound as traders focus on the next BTC halving cycle

May 19, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin Halving

Traders still anticipate BTC prices above $100,000, but a closer look at the BTC halving cycle chart suggests that a sharper downside move will occur first.

Terra's recent collapse has been repeatedly singled out as the main source of weakness affecting crypto assets, but it's much more likely that a combination of factors are behind the start of this current bear market.

At the same time that the market was reeling from the Terra saga, the 2-year mark for the next Bitcoin (BTC) halving was also crossed and this is a metric some analysts have used as an indicator for the end of a bull market.

*BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: TradingView*

As shown on the chart above, previous cycles have seen BTC hit a peak followed by a price decline that first drops below the 50-day moving average (MA) then a culminating capitulation event that thrusts the price below the 200-day MA.

Many traders were thrown off by the lack of a blow-off top in the most recent bull market cycle because this phenomenon has typically marked the late stage of an exhausted trend.

Traders also questioned the validity of the popular stock-to-flow model after BTC failed to hit $100,000 before the end of 2021.

*Bitcoin stock-to-flow model. Source: LookIntoBitcoin*

During previous market cycles, BTC was trading well above the S2F model at this stage in its progression with the model variance in the positive. Currently, the model variance is giving a reading of -0.86 while the price of BTC is well below the S2F line.

This lack of a blow-off top has prompted some traders to stand by earlier calls for one final price run-up that will see BTC hit $100,000 before entering an extended bear market, but that remains to be seen.

Looking forward to being bearish af after this wave up over 100k that I’m expecting completes. Seeing the way sentiment is now during a mid-cycle correction means the correction that corrects the entire bull cycle from 3k to 100k+ is going to be absolutely brutal. $BTC
— CrediBULL Crypto (05.27) (@CredibleCrypto) May 17, 2022

Maybe the market will bottom in November?

While some still hold out hope for one last hoorah before the bear market really sets in, a more pessimistic view is predicting another 6 months of price decline before the market hits a bottom.

*BTC/USD 1-month chart. Source: TradingView*

Based on previous cycles, the low in the market came roughly 13 months after the market top, which would suggest a bottom sometime around December of this year if the current trend holds.

This is further validated when looking at the time between a market bottom and the next Bitcoin halving event.

During the previous cycles, each cycle low was hit roughly 17 to18 months before the next halving. The next BTC halving is predicted to occur on May 5, 2024, which would suggest that that the market will bottom in November or December of 2022.

Traders are still permabulls despite the current price action

As far as price predictions go, there is far less consensus on this matter due to BTC's underperformance during the last cycle where most traders were expecting $100,000.

Traders continue to call for BTC to the surpass $100,000 mark in the not-too-distant future and a handful are holding on to the penultimate $1 million target.

*Bitcoin price prediction chart. Source: LookIntoBitcoin*

A general range of possible prices outlined by LookIntoBitcoins' price prediction tool suggests a BTC high of $238,298, while the delta top indicator indicates a high of $119,886. The terminal price indicator is currently providing a price prediction at $107,801.

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