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Bitcoin sell-off likely played a key role in boosting Gold’s appeal

Investors' appetite for gold increased as they assessed higher inflation and a major price crash in the Bitcoin market.

May was a testing time for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC). The flagship digital asset was already wobbling after rallying to nearly $65,000 in mid April, owing to profit-taking sentiment among traders.

Elon Musk accelerated the sell-off by reversing his company's plans to accept Bitcoin as payment for Tesla's electric cars.

Later in the month, the People's Bank of China reiterated to the country's financial institutions against the use of virtual currencies for payments. Chinese authorities are also starting to keep a close eye on crypto mining — the process by which computers mine cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

More blows to the cryptocurrency sector came from the U.S. tax and monetary authorities, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who suggested that more regulations are needed.

All and all, the flurry of negative updates caused the cryptocurrency market to lose more than $500 billion in May. Being the benchmark digital asset, Bitcoin also suffered the brunt of aggressive downside pressure, falling 35.50% in the month.

Bitcoin is undergoing a sharp trend reversal on its monthly charts following May's crash. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView

Meanwhile, physical gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded its strongest months in May 2021 since September 2020. The funds across the globe attracted a combined total of $3.4 billion compared to September's $4.8 billion, according to data provided by the World Gold Council (WGC).

In detail, U.S.-based gold ETFs experienced an inflow worth $2.1 billion. The European gold ETFs reported $1.6 billion worth of deposits. Nonetheless, Asian funds tracking the precious metal's prices noted an outflow of about $300 million.

Gold ETF flow chart. Source: WGC

Strong demand for gold ETFs also contributed to the rise of its spot prices. As a result, the XAU/USD exchange rate jumped 7.6% in May to $1,912.785 an ounce.

Negative correlation 

The polar opposite moves in Bitcoin and Gold markets indicated that a short-term negative correlation has been brewing between them. In addition, Wall Street veterans Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe also wrote in their DataTrek Research report that the sell-off in virtual currencies might have boosted gold's appeal among institutional investors.

The market strategists projected Bitcoin as a riskier alternative to Gold. Meanwhile, they noted that the precious metal's value does not decline by half in five weeks because of Elon Musk tweets, nor does it respond to policymakers' ban threats.

"Gold is, relative to virtual currencies, a no-drama investment. [Therefore], we continue to recommend a 3-5 percent position in gold for diversified portfolios."

Bitcoin is largely a speculative bet for wealthy and small retail investors seeking quick profits. But the fixed supply of BTC has also seen it benefit from fears of rising inflation, similar to gold. Corporates including Tesla, Ruffer Investments, Square, and MicroStrategy added Bitcoin to their cash-ruled balance sheets.

They did so to offset inflation risks brought forth by the Federal Reserve's unprecedented expansionary policies, including near-zero interest rates and a $120 billion monthly asset purchasing program. 

The high-profile investments played a key role in doubling Bitcoin prices in the first quarter of 2021, fueled further higher to around $65,000 by mid-April by an increase in debt-fueled leveraged bets and influx of new retail traders into the market.

On the other hand, Gold ETFs reported six months of back-to-back outflows until May 2021. JPMorgan analysts in January 2021 reported that gold ETFs lost about $7 billion in the same period Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), a trust operated by New York-based Grayscale Investments, attracted $3 billion.

The lack of capital injection into precious metal funds also lowered its spot bids; XAU/USD closed the first 2021 quarter down 10.14% opposed to Bitcoin's 100% returns.

In May 2021, another JPMorgan report suggested that large institutional investors secured their profits in Bitcoin to seek opportunities in gold. They cited open interest data in Bitcoin futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange that experienced its biggest drop since October 2020. JPMorgan analysts said:

“The bitcoin flow picture continues to deteriorate and is pointing to continued retrenchment by institutional investors."
Bitcoin (orange) trended inversely to gold (pink) so far into 2021. Source: TradingView

The statements also appeared as Ruffer Investments, a U.K.-based fund that manages about $33.95 billion for wealthy individuals and charities, also announced Tuesday that it has unloaded its entire Bitcoin position and has netted $1.56 billion in profits.

Duncan MacInnes, investment director at Ruffer, told the Finance Times that they had shifted the funds into gold, commodity stocks, and inflation-protected bonds.

Macinnes added that Bitcoin is still "on the menu" of Ruffer's potential investments in the future, noting that the world is desperate for new safe-haven against ultra-low bond yields.

Still Early: Taylor Swift Remains More Popular Than Bitcoin for Now

Ethereum bull trap? ETH price signals breakdown versus Bitcoin

The ETH/BTC exchange rate has surged by around 40% after bottoming out at 0.055 BTC. But the pair appears to be heading into a bull trap.

A recent run-up in Ether (ETH) prices against its top rival Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be at the risk of exhaustion even as analysts see the second-largest cryptocurrency as stronger among the two.

In retrospect, the ETH/BTC exchange rate rose by up to 40.19% after bottoming out at 0.0553 BTC on May 23. The powerful rebound move reflected a spike in the capital flow from spot ETH to spot BTC market. That also led analysts at Delphi Digital — an independent market research firm — to highlight Ethereum's "formidable strength" in the Bitcoin-quoted markets. They wrote:

"If you look at the YTD ETH/BTC chart in isolation, you probably wouldn’t guess fear in the crypto market is the highest it’s been in a year."

But a closer look into the ETH/BTC chart returned evidence that bullish traders might be heading into a bull trap.

Bearish wedge

ETH/BTC formed a pattern that began wide at the bottom and contracted as the price moved higher. As a result, the trading range got narrowed. Meanwhile, the volumes declined as the prices rose and the contracting pattern evolved.

ETH price rise inside a bearish reversal pattern as trading volumes decline. Source: TradingView

Classic chartists refer to the structure as a Rising Wedge. They interpret it as a traditional bearish reversal pattern, primarily because of the loss of the upside momentum on each successive high formation.

Rising Wedges mature as the asset reaches the level where its two trendlines converge. Nevertheless, bearish confirmations do not come until the price breaks below the Wedge support in a convincing fashion. But if it does, the asset risks crashing by as much as the maximum distance between the Wedge's upper and lower trendline.

Therefore, the ETH/BTC rising wedge indicator suggests a decline towards 0.0648 BTC on a negative breakout attempt from the pattern's apex — the point at which the trendlines converge. Also, the 0.0648 BTC level has served as support thought the May 2021 session.

January 2018 fractal

Delphi Digital compared the responses of ETH/BTC to Bitcoin's cyclical tops in 2018 and 2021 to explain their bullish outlook for the pair.

The firm stressed that ETH/BTC was comparatively a weaker instrument during the 2017 price rally than 2021. The pair topped out mid-cycle — in June 2017 — even as Bitcoin continued climbing and reached $20,000 by year's end. By then, ETH/BTC had crashed by more than 85%.

But a massive correction in the Bitcoin prices in January 2018 offloaded capital into the altcoin markets, causing a short-term upside correction in BTC-enabled pairs. Ether also benefited from the money flow from Bitcoin markets, as it rebounded from 0.0231 BTC in December 2017 to 0.1237 BTC in January 2018 — a 435.44% rise.

ETH/BTC then started correcting lower in the weekly sessions as both Bitcoin and Ethereum took a beating in dollar-quoted markets. The pair eventually crashed from 0.1237 BTC, then a year-to-date top, to as low as 0.0246 BTC in December 2018.

But that is not the case with the ongoing ETH/BTC correction, noted Delphi Digital, writing:

"At the early 2018 top, ETH/BTC took a massive beating and didn’t recover even close to as quickly as it has this time."
ETH/BTC's 2018 and 2021 top comparison per Delphi Digital's outlook

Ethereum-Bitcoin correlation

Whether or not ETH/BTC would undergo a negative breakout appears to depend on how Bitcoin performs in dollar-quoted markets.

The BTC/USD exchange rate declined by up to 53.77% from its record high, near $65,000, and started consolidation later. Meanwhile, the ETH/USD rate also corrected in tandem with BTC/USD, plunging 60.59% from its all-time high of $4,384. That showed a strong linear correlation between the two digital assets.

Nick Spanos, the founder of Bitcoin Center NYC, told Cointelegraph that Ether would need to break its correlation with Bitcoin in the dollar-denominated markets to have an independent ETH/BTC trend. Until then, sharp downside moves in ETH/USD and BTC/USD would also mean a depressive ETH/BTC trend. He added:

"While Ethereum has good fundamentals and upgrades in the works, its potential growth in the future is somewhat dependent on the performance of Bitcoin. A breakaway from this trend is being projected by Ethereum investors. However, the current trend does not indicate the likelihood of this in the near to mid term."

Yuri Mazur, head of the data analysis department at CEX.IO cryptocurrency exchange, added that the ongoing anti-inflation narrative could allow Bitcoin to resume its uptrend. As a result, the rest of the cryptocurrency market, including Ethereum, should follow suit. He told CoinTelegraph:

"ETH/BTC should benefit from a rising trend for cryptocurrencies, especially as Ethereum undergoes the London hard fork upgrade later in July."

Still Early: Taylor Swift Remains More Popular Than Bitcoin for Now

MicroStrategy stock slides after announcing new $400M debt raise to buy Bitcoin

The company's stock has dropped by more than 60% after topping out at $1,135 in early February.

A lackluster balance sheet, excessive debt load and over-leveraged exposure to Bitcoin have crashed MicroStrategy stock by more than 63% since February already. Nevertheless, the business intelligence company has ignored the risks of its frothy valuations, and it now wants to raise more debt and buy Bitcoin with proceeds (BTC).

MicroStrategy announced on June 7 that it "intends to raise $400 million aggregate principal amount of senior secured notes in private offering [...] to acquire additional Bitcoins." The company already holds more than 92,000 BTC, worth about $3.31 billion at current exchange rates — almost 1.5x its principal investment.

BTC/USD (blue) vs. MSTR (orange) YTD performance. Source: TradingView

MSTR plunged 2.17% to $469.29 per share after the New York Stock Exchange's opening bell on June 7. At its year-to-date high, it was changing hands for $1,135.

Not making money

In previous statements, MicroStrategy clarified that it is building up a Bitcoin portfolio as an insurance policy against the continuing devaluation of the world's major currencies. But with its back-to-back Bitcoin purchases, the company has effectively protected itself from more than just the U.S. dollar decline. Here's a hint: unprofitable business lines.

MicroStrategy's net income growth plunged 121.90% in 2020. Source: Wall Street Journal

A look into MicroStrategy's alternative asset holdings also shows that the company is overly skewed toward Bitcoin, with real estate accounting for less than 0.2% of the total investments.

Its latest quarterly report also shows a weaker balance sheet as of March 31, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.55 — a significant debt load of $1.66 billion against an equity valuation of $0.37 billion.

MicroStrategy is holding assets worth $2.44 billion as of March, out of which $1.947 billion is Bitcoin. Source: WSJ

That is particularly risky when Bitcoin's price volatility is taken into account. MicroStrategy does not generate sufficient income to service its debt load and hugely relies on Bitcoin profits to do so. Atop that, it now wants to raise another $300 million, although its convertible notes are not due to mature until 2028.

Juan De La Hoz, a closed-end fund/exchange-traded fund strategist, fears that MicroStrategy risks becoming insolvent should Bitcoin fall by more than 50% in the future, noting the flagship cryptocurrency's massive declines in the years 2014 and 2018. The analyst added that MicroStrategy would most likely liquidate its Bitcoin holdings to avoid insolvency.

Hoz added that he would neither invest in cryptocurrencies through leverage nor invest in a company that did so, hinting at his extremely bearish outlook for MicroStrategy and Bitcoin.

"It is simply too risky, you could lose it all, and I'd rather not take that chance."

Bitcoin prices sleepwalked through MicroStrategy's announcement early in the U.S. morning before trading began on the NYSE. The BTC/USD exchange rate continued trading sideways while maintaining support above $36,000.

Still Early: Taylor Swift Remains More Popular Than Bitcoin for Now

Bears batter Bitcoin market sentiment as Bitfinex margin shorts surge 378%

The latest rally in BTC shorts is similar to what appeared ahead of the Elon Musk-led May 19 market crash.

Bitcoin (BTC) bulls should brace for a potential onslaught from bears as the number of margined short positions on Bitfinex jumps by a little over 378%.

Known to most by the ticker BTCUSD Shorts, the dataset records the number of bearish positions in the Bitcoin market. In simple terms, traders borrow funds from Bitfinex — their broker — to trade bet on bearish outcomes for the instrument BTC/USD. Meanwhile, the value of opened short positions is measured in BTC.

The number of short margined positions on Bitfinex reached an intraday high of 6,468.2202 BTC this Monday, up more than 378% from its previous session’s low at 1,351.72 BTC.

The spike prompted some analysts to alarm about a potential price crash in the Bitcoin spot market primarily because a similar wild BTCUSD Shorts uptrend at the beginning of last month had led the BTC/USD exchange rate down by almost $13,000 on May 19.

For instance, independent market researcher Fomocap tweeted a chart that showed a visible correlation between Bitcoin spot rates and its margined short positions. The analyst highlighted two instances to note that two metrics moved inversely with some lag.

His first example showed that on May 25, BTCUSD Shorts dropped lower, which was later led to a price rally in Bitcoin spot markets.

Bitcoin crashed by 30% following a jump in BTCUSD Shorts positions on Bitfinex. Source: TradingView

The second example showed Bitcoin spot prices crashing after a spike in BTCUSD Shorts.

EBlockChain, a TradingView contributor, said earlier on Monday that BTCUSD Shorts exceeding 200% and above is a “strong indication” of an imminent dump in Bitcoin spot markets. The analyst added:

“It could be triggered in a [matter] of few hours [to] three days max.”

Long-margined positions, meanwhile

The boldly bearish statements for Bitcoin also came as its margin-longed positions rose steadily.

BTCUSD Longs, another Bitfinex dataset that records the number of bullish margin positions, surged to as high as 44,538.6579 BTC on Monday. So, it appears, Bitcoin’s long exposure remained higher than short exposure in totality, illustrating that, to traders, the direction of the least risk was to the upside.

Bitcoin long exposure on Bitfinex high despite recent spikes in bearish positions. Source: TradingView

But a sudden drop in Bitcoin spot prices could also lead leveraged long holders to dump their BTCUSD positions, which, in turn, incites further selling. Such an event is called “long squeeze.” May 19’s price crash, for example, had liquidated about $7.5 billion of long-leveraged positions across the cryptocurrency derivatives market.

Jacob Canfield, a crypto trader, provided an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin following the May crash. Last week, the analyst stated that Bitcoin has already dropped by more than 40% following its May long squeeze — and now there is a lesser probability of facing another significant bearish move.

Meanwhile, the cost to fund long positions in the Bitcoin derivatives market remained mostly below zero following the May 19 crash. Negative funding rates cause bearish traders to pay fees every eight hours. The situation encourages market makers and arbitrage desks to buy inverse swaps — or perpetual contracts — as they simultaneously unload their futures monthly contracts.

BTC funding rates history. Source: Bybt.com

Analysts typically interpret negative funding rates as a buy indicator because they create incentives for buyers and squeeze short-sellers. Meanwhile, the funding rates become neutral as soon as shorts close their positions.

Technicals disappoint

Bitcoin’s ongoing consolidation move has many traders point out the possible formation of a bearish pennant structure.

In retrospect, bearish pennants are downside continuation indicators — i.e., their setup typically involves the asset breaking out of the range and continuing in the direction of its previous trend. For example, Bitcoin dropped from around $65,000 to $30,000 before forming the pennant. Therefore, its likelihood of continuing lower appears higher based on technical structures alone.

Meanwhile, one bullish backstop for Bitcoin remains fears of higher inflation. This week, the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will release May’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The data will set the future tone for the Federal Reserve’s expansionary monetary policies, including near-zero lending rates and infinite bond-buying programs.

Economists forecast that the CPI will rise to 4.7% for May compared to 4.2% in April.

On-chain metrics bullish

More evidence dropped in about investors’ intention to hold Bitcoin than to trade/liquidate it for other assets. For example, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode reported a decline in net exchange flows involving Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Exchange Net Flow hits 19-month low. Source: Glassnode

Meanwhile, its rival CryptoQuant highlighted a significant drop in volume across the Bitcoin blockchain, hinting at a similar holding outlook via its “BTC: Active Address Count” metric.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Still Early: Taylor Swift Remains More Popular Than Bitcoin for Now

Bitcoin drops below $36K as century-old financial model predicts big BTC crash

A push to $40,000-$42,000 won't protect Bitcoin from risks of undergoing a major price decline later, suggests a century-old price prediction model created by technical analyst titan Richard Wyckoff.

Overconfident Bitcoin (BTC) bulls would need to battle more than just Elon Musk as a price prediction model — created by technical analyst pioneer Richard Wyckoff more than 100 years ago — also goes against their wild upside predictions.

Dubbed as Wyckoff Method, the model involves a five-phase approach to determine price trends that majorly involve investors' psychological reaction to an asset's supply and demand.

For example, in the case of accumulation, when an asset tends to bottom out following sharp price moves downhill, the five phases in order include Selling Climax (SC), Successful Secondary Test (ST), Last Point of Support (LPS), Sign of Strength (SOS), and "stepping stones" — that signifies more demand for the asset.

Wyckoff events and phases during accumulation. Source: Stockcharts.com

On the other hand, the Distribution case appears like a 180-degree version of the Accumulation case, consisting of five phases that follow a strong price trend upward.

Wyckoff events and phases during distribution. Source: Stockcharts.com

The Preliminary Supply (PSY) signals a strong demand shift upward as price trends higher while accompanying increasing volumes. However, the uptrend ultimately exhausts, leading to an even called buying climax (BC). It follows a sell-off caused by a lack of demand near the asset's price stop against abundant supply. Wyckoff called the correction as Automatic Reaction (AR).

Together, PSY, BC, and AR make Phase A.

Meanwhile, Phase B involves a fake rebound towards BC, called Secondary Test (SET), followed by another drop that shows the asset's Sign of Weakness (SOW). Phase B also typically sees weak rebound attempts from SOW towards Upthrust (UT). Later, the transition to Phase C witnesses a terminal shakeout in distribution, known as Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD).

Phase D involves an alarming lapse of demand against supply, also known as the Last Point of Supply (LPSY), leading to an all-and-all price crash in Phase E.

Bitcoin in 'Phase C'

Tempting Beef, an independent market analyst, alerted his followers that Bitcoin has entered the Accumulation cycle of the classic Wyckoff model. The pseudonymous entity flashed recent rebounds in the Bitcoin market, apprehensibly pointing at BTC/USD's potential to sustain a bullish trend above $40,000 on weakening supply and rising demand.

"Supply is getting exhausted. [It] could be ready for phase C."

But Tempting Beef presented a conflicting scenario by reimagining Phase A per Wyckoff Distribution schematics. The analyst marked the Bitcoin rebound from $30,000-low as a sign of PSY, leading up to BC, AR, ST, SOW, and other successive events mentioned across the Distribution phases.

Conflicting Wyckoff scenarios appear on Tempting Beef's Bitcoin market outlook. Source: Twitter

Bitcoin again landed itself in Phase C, which alarmed about demand exhaustion in the case of Wyckoff Distribution Events. It would mean that the cryptocurrency's point of least risk is to the downside — a price crash. 

Technicals skewed to downside

Bitcoin's latest correction in the spot market surfaced following a yearlong rally. Between March 2020 and April 2021, the BTC/USD exchange rate ballooned by as much as 1,582%, logging an all-time high near $65,000.

However, the pair wiped more than 50% of its price rally. The prices crashed, recovered, and they now consolidate sideways without hinting at a specific short-term bias for direction. Therefore, it now appears more like a Wyckoff Distribution model, since the phases follow a yearlong move upward, not downward.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle structure following its sharp downside correction after mid-May, hinting that the pattern is — in fact — a bearish pennant. Technically, bearish pennants send the prices lower by as much as the scale of the previous move lower.

Bitcoin bearish pennant setup sees BTC crashing below $20,000. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

BTC/USD is trading at around $36,000, or 44.59% below its $65,000-top as of this time of writing.

Still Early: Taylor Swift Remains More Popular Than Bitcoin for Now

Classic technical indicator foresees another massive Bitcoin price drop with $16K target  

Bitcoin is forming a textbook downside continuation structure called Bearish Pennant whose ultimate breakout target lurks near $16,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded by more than 25% after bottoming out at $30,000 during the May 19 crash. But the cryptocurrency continues to tread ahead under the possibility of facing another period of strong sell-offs owing to a classic technical indicator pattern.

Bitcoin price in a 'Bearish Pennant' 

Dubbed as Bearish Pennant, the pattern forms when an asset consolidates after a strong move downward and forms a small symmetrical triangle-like price range. It breaks below the range support and continues moving lower. Traders usually estimate the size of the negative breakout move by measuring the height of the earlier move.

Bitcoin is currently trading inside a similar bearish pennant structure, fluctuating sideways as it forms a sequence of lower highs and higher lows. Meanwhile, its consolidation structure precedes a massive move downhill to around $20,000. Therefore, if the BTC/USD rate breaks below the pennant structure, accompanied by rising trade volumes, its likelihood of crashing by almost $20,000 is high.

The bearish outlook also borrows cues from Bitcoin's recent bounce. It is worthy to take notice that the cost to purchase one Bitcoin fell from almost $65,000 to $30,000 on May 19 — or by over 50% —followed by a considerable 30% bounce.

Bitcoin pennant structure and its primary downside target. Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, market analytics service Income Machine is warning of a "dead cat bounce" scenario emerging in the Bitcoin market, noting that upcoming rallies in BTC/USD could face limitations by further selling pressure near the May 26 highs (the $39,000-$41,000 area). It recommended traders exit their bullish positions near $40,000.

What's more, Income Machine also noted that a failure to hold $30,000 as support would risk crashing bitcoin prices to $16,200 — a level that coincides with the Bearish Pennant target. The analytics firm selected $16,200 because of its historical relevance as support during the November-December 2020 session.

Bitcoin bearish outlook presented by Income Machine. Source: TradingView

"Conversely, an upside break of the May 26 highs would cause us to reverse our analysis and adopt a more bullish outlook for BTC-USD," added Income Machine analysts.

Pankaj Balani, chief executive and co-founder of crypto derivatives exchange Delta, also anticipated an extended bearish breakdown should the bitcoin price closes below $34,000. Nevertheless, the former UBS alumni limited his downside target to $28,000, 2021's lowest level. He told Cointelegraph:

"Traders would be keenly watching these levels before taking any decisive action. That said, the risk to the Bulls remains higher compared to that of Bears, as longer-term price action is in a downward direction."

Bullish outlook

Balani also noted that the current price action signifies demand in the $30,000-$35,000 range. Therefore, an upward swing from the said area could end up breaking the Bearish Pennant — which Balani referred to as Symmetrical Triangle — to the upside.

"BTC is forming a classic symmetric triangle and any breakout/breakdown will lead to a significant price move," he said, adding:

"If BTC breaks out of $40K conclusively, a move to $45K can be expected."

Still Early: Taylor Swift Remains More Popular Than Bitcoin for Now

Veteran trader Peter Brandt sees Bitcoin crashing further after May’s 50% drop

Peter Brandt, a veteran financial analyst and trader, is questioning whether Bitcoin has more upside in the near term.

Bitcoin (BTC) faces the prospects of falling further even after its price made a strong recovery after crashing from $65,000 to $30,000 in May 2021.

So, it reflects in the latest statements from Peter Brandt, chief executive of global trading firm Factor LLC, who questioned, if not asserted, the longevity of the ongoing relief rally in the Bitcoin market, especially after a 50%-plus price crash.

The veteran commodity trader challenged “BTC price historians” to identify a single instance in the last decade that saw Bitcoin logging a new record high seven months after crashing more than 50%. He also asked to refer to one case when a 50% decline in Bitcoin’s price did not lead up to at least a 70% correction.

One of the Twitterati responded with two instances: the March 2020 rebound, wherein Bitcoin’s price recovered to its all-time high above $20,000 eight — if not seven — months after crashing to $3,850 in March from its long-term cyclical high of $13,880 in June 2019; and the 2013 bull run that saw the cryptocurrency rising by more than 2,450% eight months after bottoming out near $45 in an 80% overnight crash.

Bitcoin price action from April–November 2013 trading session. Source: TradingView

Brand said, “nope to both,” apprehensively because Bitcoin’s prices took an additional month to reclaim their record highs in both cases. Nevertheless, the veteran’s questions remained cryptic enough due to its selective timeframe and as to what they were attempting to prove about the crypto market bias in the first place.

On-chain analyst Willy Woo guessed that Brandt was trying to forecast a further price crash in the Bitcoin markets, based on the cryptocurrency’s historical responses to a 50%-plus price correction event.

Woo attempted to pour cold water on Brandt’s fractal-oriented bearish market outlook by referring to “fundamentals.”

“All drops of that scale with long recoveries was from a starting point where the price was overextended above fundamental valuation,” responded Woo.

“This setup is different in that price is BELOW fundamentals. As a guide, the COVID dump dropped below fundamentals and therefore recovered quickly.”

Woo himself did not explain what he meant by the term “fundamentals.” His active followers on Twitter took up the charge to clarify that the analyst referred to the “network effect” caused as investments sitting in gold and cash-oriented portfolios find a place in anti-inflationary holdings.

Bitcoin rose from its March 2020 bottom to a new record high near $65,000 majorly because investors saw its scarcity as a defense against higher inflation.

In retrospect, interest rate suppressions, a $120-billion bond purchasing program, and the United States government’s trillions of dollars worth of stimulus packages — aimed at curbing the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic on the U.S. economy — led investors to risk-on assets, such as Bitcoin and stocks.

Bitcoin and S&P 500 surged in tandem following the pandemic-led March 2020 crash. Source: TradingView

On May 12, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that the country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) had risen to 4.2% year-over-year, logging its fastest climb since 2008. That tends to increase Bitcoin’s appeal among individuals and organizations looking for hedging against inflation in the long run, especially as higher consumer prices punish savers by forcing the U.S. dollar valuations lower.

“This is the number one reason why I am bullish on something like Bitcoin,” said Anthony Pompliano, investor at Pomp Investments, in January 2021.

“It is the single greatest protector of wealth in the world. There is extreme volatility in the short term, but over a long period of time, Bitcoin shines. It does a great job of preserving purchasing power and avoiding the perils of fiat currency devaluation.”

Meanwhile, some analysts anticipate Bitcoin to continue declining, much in line with what Brandt hinted. One of them is Richard Durant, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, who called Bitcoin a “sentimental asset” that cannot rise without positive price catalysts, adding that “it is unclear at this stage what they could be.”

Analysts at BiotechValley Insights wrote that Bitcoin’s rise against inflation fears does not make the flagship cryptocurrency a hedge. They referred to the May 19 price crash that appeared a week after the U.S. labor bureau reported a 4.2% CPI reading.

“Bitcoin is more correlated to high-risk momentum growth stocks like TSLA than to safe-haven assets such as gold or bonds,” they noted.

Meanwhile, Brandt, who correctly predicted the 2018 Bitcoin price crash, appeared more technically focused on the next market outlook. In March 2021, he had anticipated the BTC/USD exchange rate to hit $200,000 in either the third or the fourth quarter this year.

Meanwhile, Brandt was also the one to decide that he should keep his money in equities instead of cryptocurrencies just as Bitcoin’s prices were approaching a breakout move above $12,000 in September 2020. The cryptocurrency closed the year at around $29,000.

In March 2020, Brandt anticipated BTC to fall to $1,000. But the cryptocurrency reversed its bearish course upon testing upper $3,800 levels as support.

Still Early: Taylor Swift Remains More Popular Than Bitcoin for Now

Bitcoin accumulation uptrend can create a 2013-style BTC price ‘double pump’

Long-term Bitcoin holders remain unfazed by the recent sell-off, but there is still one alarming sign.

A recent run-down in Bitcoin’s (BTC) price from about $65,000 to as low as $30,000 did not force long-term holders into selling, Glassnode data shows.

The on-chain analytics platform revealed a spike in Bitcoin reserves held in wallets with lower unspent output just as BTC/USD’s bids were crashing.

Meanwhile, the data also shows a Bitcoin collecting spree among miners — the entities that produce and supply newly minted cryptocurrencies for retail markets. As a result, the active BTC supply started declining in recent sessions.

New Bitcoin supply squeezed-in by miners and long-term holders. Source: Glassnode

Short-term Bitcoin holders — the entities that hold the flagship cryptocurrency for less than a week after accumulating it — were the biggest sellers during the BTC/USD rate decline. Glassnode data suggested that newer market entrants panic-sold BTC during the May downturn, a month during which BTC lost 38% from its all-time high price.

Bitcoin price volatility, meanwhile, continues to exploit short-term traders with double-digit percentage up/down moves. The 24-hour Bitcoin Volatility Index on TradingView settled around 19.70 on May 20 after bottoming out at 1.90 on April 2 — that marked a 936% climb during the period, wherein BTC/USD rose to hit an all-time high near $65,000 and corrected lower to reach $30,000.

Bitcoin Historic Volatility index. Source: TradingView

Elevated price fluctuations served as a signal that investors remained fearful or uncertain about Bitcoin’s next market bias. The intraday candles in the chart above showed persistent higher volatility — the one on Sunday closed 34% lower than the previous session. But overall, the trend appeared on its way to the downside.

Except, there is one catch

Glassnode anticipated that long-term holders realize their profits or losses at some point in time (PnL). The analytics portal cited a proprietary metric that checks on long-term holders’ exhausting levels — the point at which their ability to hold BTC breaks, and which prompts them to realize their profits or losses in the market.

Bitcoin’s entity-adjusted long-term holders’ net unrealized profit/loss. Source: Glassnode

“The current degree of net unrealized PnL held by LTHs tests the 0.75 level, which has been the make or break level between past bull and bear cycles,” wrote Glassnode analysts.

“Only in the 2013 ‘double pump’ scenario did this metric see a recovery. Should LTHs continue to see their paper gains fall, this too may create a new source of overhead supply. On the other hand, higher prices and a supply squeeze from buying the dip would begin to resemble the ‘double pump’ scenario from 2013.”

Bitcoin macroeconomically bullish

The only factor that separates the current Bitcoin holding scenario from the previous ones is the United States’ trillion-dollar deficits. The world’s largest economy has returned to its highest debt-to-GDP ratio since World War II. And on Friday, President Joe Biden announced another $6-trillion spending plan for 2022.

In total, the plan would raise government spending to $8.2 trillion per year by 2031. It would mean annual fiscal deficits of over $1.3 trillion and $1.8 trillion in 2022.

One of the biggest fears in the market is that increased government spending would lead to a dramatic rise in inflation.

Demand for Bitcoin has surged among institutional investors for its anti-inflation narrative. Supporters note that there can only be 21 million BTC tokens in supply, making it an ideal store of value against an infinitely printable U.S. dollar.

Corporates including Tesla, Square, MicroStrategy and Ruffer Investments have added Bitcoin to their balance sheets as an alternative to cash. Billionaire investors, including Stan Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones and Mike Novogratz have also allocated a considerable portion of their investment portfolio to Bitcoin.

Fundamentals continue to provide Bitcoin a bullish backstop.

“Bitcoin was made for this moment,” noted Dan Held, director of growth marketing at Kraken. “We’re in the biggest money printing operation ever in human history, and Bitcoin is the only way out.”

Still Early: Taylor Swift Remains More Popular Than Bitcoin for Now

Bitcoin can still drop to $20K but holding remains winning strategy, data shows

A majority of Bitcoin investors that held the cryptocurrency during its turbulent periods stand profitable.

Unloading Bitcoin (BTC) spot positions when it starts crashing violently upon forming its all-time highs is a bad investment call, at least according to its historical price action.

The flagship cryptocurrency's eleven-year lifetime has seen it undergoing many bullish and bearish cycles. The BTC/USD exchange rate typically rises parabolically. It later trims more than half of those gains down as profitable traders sell the top. But, at the same time, traders who buy bitcoin around its local top suffer longer periods of losses.

Got Bitcoin? Chances are you’re in profit

However, the overall historic price trajectory of Bitcoin remains skewed to the upside.

The cryptocurrency bottoms out after every bullish-to-bearish cycle and rebounds all over again to seek new all-time highs.

Its weekly timeframe chart shows the price forming consecutive higher highs separated by years — $500 in November 2015, $768 in June 2016, $2,998 in June 2017, $19,891 in December 2017, $41,986 in January 2021, and $64,899 in April 2021.

Bitcoin's bullish and bearish cycles over the recent years. Source: TradingView

PlanB, the brain behind the widely-circulated Stock to Flow model, which predicts the Bitcoin price at $288,000 by 2024, referred to the cryptocurrency's ability to return profits to patient investors in a tweet Friday morning. The pseudonymous analyst noted that not a single investor who held Bitcoin for more than four years ever suffered losses.

He cited the 200-weekly moving average curve as an invisible price floor that held the bitcoin market's bullish bias higher during bearish corrections. The BTC/USD exchange rate tested the said support wave on its downside moves, only to rebound later to newer highs.

The red to orange transformation in the chart above shows Bitcoin's bullish exhaustion following its 2020-2021 price boom. Source: PlanB

The statement appeared as the Bitcoin price showed signs of waning bullish momentum. The BTC/USD exchange rate topped near $65,000 in mid-April and corrected to as low as $30,000 on Coinbase almost a month later. As of May 28, the pair's bid among traders was near $37,000.

Meanwhile, PlanB's long-term projects make Bitcoin appears like an asset that would keeping siphoning capital out of traditional markets. The analyst wrote earlier that he anticipates people to buy the cryptocurrency for its underlying scarcity — there can be only 21 million BTC in existence.

"Silver, gold, countries with [a] negative interest rate (Europe, Japan, US soon), countries with predatory governments (Venezuela, China, Iran, Turkey, etc.), billionaires and millionaires hedging against quantitative easing (QE), and institutional investors discovering the best performing asset of last 10 yrs" will influence people to seek safety in bitcoin, wrote PlanB in his 2019 paper, "Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity," as he envisioned a trillion-dollar market cap for the cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin still following the Stock-to-Flow model price trajectory. Source: ByBt.com, PlanB

The model prompts investors who bought Bitcoin at around $65,000 to hold the asset even if it takes more than four years for them to make their investments even. That is applicable only if Bitcoin continues to follow the stock-to-flow price model trajectory.

A logarithmic curve chart based on the same bullish model anticipates the BTC/USD rates to fall to $20,000 or lower. The downside target appears after sketching a Fibonacci graph between the curve's upper and lower bands. Its uppermost deviation sits near $111,590, while the lowest one is around $17,150.

Bitcoin oscillator and price curve trajectory shows sign of bearish reversal. Source: Bybt.com

The logarithmic curve's historical significance in predicting price bottoms and tops makes it relevant enough for investors to realize their potential long and short targets.

Too unrealistic?

Despite their accuracy, the stock-to-flow model and its derivatives have attracted criticism for its unrealistic bullish portrayals of scarcer assets. Charlie Morris, co-founder, and CIO of crypto data firm ByteTree, told CoinTelegraph in November last year that bitcoin's lower supply against higher demand does not guarantee higher prices.

People will still be able to sell bitcoin from existing active supply to meet the market's demand, argued Morris.

Nico Cordeiro, the chief investment officer and fund manager at Strix Leviathan, also criticized the core assertion of scarcity-based Bitcoin pricing models, noting that no evidence suggests that supply dictates the U.S. dollar market valuation of monetary goods (gold, silver, or Bitcoin).

The past performance is not a guarantee of future results. But with Bitcoin gaining momentum among institutional circles in the wake of lower-yield investment safe-haven alternatives (government bonds, the U.S. dollar, etc.), it looks appealing to many to just “hodl” the token until further notice. 

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Still Early: Taylor Swift Remains More Popular Than Bitcoin for Now

Bitcoin tumbles to $36K as ARK’s Cathie Wood addresses BTC regulatory fears

The flagship cryptocurrency faces a higher profit-taking sentiment near its 200-day simple moving average wave.

Bitcoin's (BTC) quick run-up above $40,000 during the early New York trading session Thursday lost momentum midway as traders decided to secure short-term profits.

The benchmark cryptocurrency shed up to 12.08% after topping out at $40,440 on Coinbase. It reached an intraday low of $36,410 ahead of the London opening bell on Friday, showcasing upside resilience among traders near the $40,000-level.

Bitcoin price pulls back after testing its 200-day simple MA. Source: TradingView

Technicals and looming regulations

Concerns about stricter crypto market regulations created headwinds for an otherwise choppy but solid Bitcoin price recovery.

In retrospect, the BTC/USD exchange rate had crashed to $30,000 on May 19 after news of China's ban on crypto transactions hit the wire.

In the same week, U.S. President Joe Biden's administration targeted regional crypto investors by making it mandatory to report transactions over $10,000 to the Internal Revenue Service, creating more downside pressure on Bitcoin and similar digital assets.

Meanwhile, concerns about higher inflation kept Bitcoin from pursuing deeper downside moves. The last big inflation report in the U.S. showed the figures ranging around 4.2%, about 2.2% higher than the Federal Reserve's expectations.

Ideally, that could have prompted the U.S. central bank to taper down its current expansionary policies, but the officials agreed that inflationary spikes were "transitory" in nature.

The mixed fundamental signals have pushed the Bitcoin price into a choppy trading range, with $35,000 acting as interim support and $40,000 serving as interim resistance.

Wood feeds the bullish fire

Meanwhile, ARK Investment's CEO, Cathie Wood, attempted to calm down fears regarding stricter scrutiny over Bitcoin entities.

Speaking at the Consensus 2021 conference earlier this week, the celebrated tech investor said it is impossible to shut down cryptocurrencies, reiterating her views that regulators would eventually need to wrap their minds around the blockchain assets.

"I think the competitive dynamic in the rest of the world is helping us in the United States. I think it’s been good," Wood had said in an interview last week.

On declining institutional investments in the cryptocurrency space, Wood noted that investors had paused their capital flow into Bitcoin and other rival assets over their questionable environmental profile. Elon Musk raised the same issue when his benchmark undertaking Tesla decided to stop taking bitcoin payments for its electric vehicles.

However, the billionaire entrepreneur later backed an alliance of North American crypto miners to track and reduce crypto-related carbon emissions.

“Half of the solution is: understanding the problem,” Wood said during her Consensus conference address.

“This auditing of what miners, certainly in North America, are willing to do around how much of their electricity usage is generated by renewables is going to bring that topic into stark relief, and will encourage an acceleration in the adoption of renewables beyond which otherwise would have taken the place.”

She added that institutional buying in the Bitcoin market would resume on the cryptocurrency's improving green profile.

Wood's ARK increased its Coinbase shares (COIN) holdings last week, buying another 223,181 units of the stock to push its net exposure to the Nasdaq-listed cryptocurrency exchange above $1 billion.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Still Early: Taylor Swift Remains More Popular Than Bitcoin for Now