Bitcoin stays out of fear for 11 straight days as price tips near 24K

January 30, 2023 Coin Telegraph

bull trap

Bitcoin's huge price surge in January has meant that 64% of Bitcoin investors are in profit, according to data from IntoTheBlock.

Bitcoin (BTC) has just clocked its 11th consecutive day outside the “Fear” zone in the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, cementing its longest streak out of fear since last March.

Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 61 - Greed
Current price: $23,780 pic.twitter.com/U5gxN3AwnT
— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) January 30, 2023

This comes as Bitcoin hit $23,955 at 8:10 pm UTC time on Jan. 29, its highest level of the year. It has since come back down slightly, to $23,687 at the time of writing.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin sentiment is currently sitting firmly in the “Greed” zone with a score of 61, its highest level since the height of the bull run around Nov. 16, 2021, when its price was about $65,000.

*Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index over the last 12 months. Source:* *Crypto Fear and Greed Index.*

However, despite Bitcoin’s strong resurgence in recent weeks, market participants continue to debate whether the recent price surge is part of a bull trap or whether there is a real chance for a bull run.

Regardless, the current rally has pushed a lot more BTC holders back into the green.

According to data from blockchain intelligence platform IntoTheBlock, 64% of Bitcoin investors are now in profit.

Those who first bought BTC back in 2019 are now — on average — back in profit too, according to on-chain analytics platform Glassnode.

We can calculate the average acquisition price for #Bitcoin by tracking exchange withdrawals.

The chart below shows the average withdrawal price for investors for each year.

The average class of 2019+ $BTC is now back in profit (at $21.8k)

Live Chart: https://t.co/yuhvydV70c pic.twitter.com/skjrM6w5lH
— glassnode (@glassnode) January 29, 2023

The average first-time buy price for BTC investors in 2019 was $21,800, which means those investors are on average up about 9% at the Jan. 29 price of $23,687.

Meanwhile, a Jan. 29 poll from crypto market platform CoinGecko has revealed that 57.7% of 3,725 voters believe BTC will exceed $25,000 this week, while only 21.2% of voters believe BTC is primed for a pullback below $22,000.

*A CoinGecko poll on BTC price prediction for the upcoming week. Source:* *CoinGecko*

The founder and CEO of Vailshire Capital, Dr. Jeff Ross, also provided a technical analysis of his own on Jan. 29, suggesting that a price surge toward $25,000 in the short term may be on the cards:

The strength of #bitcoin on the 4-hour charts continues to be impressive.

While price action has trended sideways for over a week, short term indicators (MACD, RSI) have once again reset... and are now ramping higher.

A price surge to ~$25k is probable.

(Not investment advice) pic.twitter.com/QaPbNrxtxZ
— Dr. Jeff Ross (@VailshireCap) January 29, 2023

Other analysts have called for excited investors to taper some of their expectations, however.

Head analyst Joe Burnett of Bitcoin mining company Blockware told his 43,900 Twitter followers on Jan. 29 that BTC won’t reach and surpass its all-time high of $69,000 until after the next Bitcoin halving event, which is expected to take place in March 2024:

I do not think Bitcoin will make a new all time high until after the 2024 halving.

Dovish macro conditions and decreased miner sell pressure will lead to the next parabolic bull run.

Using Energy Gravity as a potential top indicator, I expect the next peak to be $150k - $350k. pic.twitter.com/OfCER7s8Zq
— Joe Burnett ()³ (@IIICapital) January 29, 2023

Macroeconomist and investment adviser Lyn Alden also recently told Cointelegraph that there may be “considerable danger ahead” with potentially risky liquidity conditions expected to shake the market in the second half of 2023.

Bitcoin steps out of ‘Fear’ for the first time in nine months

January 16, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index reached an index score of 52 over the weekend, marking the first time its hit neutral territory in three quarters.

The highly-referenced Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index moved into neutral territory over the weekend following several months of fear.

On Jan. 15, the index reached a neutral level of 52, its highest since April 5. The move follows a 24% gain for the BTC over the past seven days.

The market sentiment tracker hit a multi-year low of 9 in June 2022. Since then it has been hovering between 20 and 30 in the “Extreme Fear” category. Furthermore, it registered its longest-ever streak of extreme fear in mid-2022, as reported by Cointelegraph.

The fear and greed index uses “motions and sentiments from different sources” including current volatility, market momentum and volume, social media and Google Trends data, among others.

Together, data from these sources is used to create a straightforward number to summarize the emotional state regarding Bitcoin and crypto markets.

It consists of five categories ranging from extreme fear to extreme greed, the latter not been seen since October 2021.

As at the time of writing, the index has dipped back down to 45, which puts it back into the “Fear” category, suggesting that confidence has yet to make a full return.

Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index is 45. Neutral
Current price: $20,879 pic.twitter.com/lnj3pd73XL
— Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index (@BitcoinFear) January 16, 2023

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has seen its second-longest streak of gains in history with a 12-day run this month. The asset has gained 28% since the beginning of this year, wiping out all losses in the crash that followed the FTX collapse in early November.

The massive momentum has created a large movement in technical indicators such as the RSI (relative strength index) which has hit its highest level for four years on the daily timeframe.

High RSI figures can suggest that an asset is overbought and a correction is due.

Highest RSI levels on Daily $BTC chart for 4 years.

Each of the prior 3 touches of the 90 level responded as follows:

Touch 1: BTC continued +18% higher before correcting -12%

Touch 2: BTC continued +16% higher before correcting -21%

Touch 3: No BTC gain and -31% correction pic.twitter.com/swQSLqATIi
— Cold Blooded Shillver (@ColdBloodShill) January 15, 2023

Several analysts have labeled the recent move as a bull trap but a solid weekly close has led some to believe the momentum will continue.

$BTC Weekly

You could not dream up a more bullish weekly candle. pic.twitter.com/fv66u76ujV
— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) January 15, 2023

Professional trader and chart guru Peter Brandt summed it up on Jan. 16, tweeting:

“Any idiot can make wild guesses about markets, so here is my dunce-hat prediction. In reality, nobody has a clue what any given market will do. $BTC.”

Bitcoin was trading up 2.2% on the day at $21,1652 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko.

Popular Analyst Justin Bennett Says Latest Crypto Bump Is a Bull Trap – Here’s Why

August 30, 2022 The Daily Hodl

Leading Ethereum Rival Could Crash by Over 35% After Failed Breakout, Says Crypto Analyst

August 18, 2022 The Daily Hodl

Will Ethereum Merge hopium continue, or is it a bull trap?

July 20, 2022 Coin Telegraph

bull trap

ETH has gained 48% over the past week, leaving most of its crypto brethren behind — though it's still risky days ahead given the macroeconomic factors still at play.

Ethereum is outperforming the broader cryptocurrency market as the highly anticipated Merge approaches, but the bigger picture is still largely bearish.

Ethereum (ETH) has gained a whopping 48% over the past seven days, outperforming its big brother Bitcoin, which has only managed to achieve 19% in the same period. It's also up 66% from its market cycle bottom of $918 on June 19, reaching its current price of $1549.

However, the current Ethereum rally could be a bull trap with the macroeconomic clouds darkening. A bull trap is a signal indicating that a declining trend in a crypto asset has reversed and is heading upwards when it will actually continue downwards.

The primary driver of recent momentum for the asset has been linked to announcements regarding its final switch to proof-of-stake, which has been slated for September 19.

The Merge will reduce the network’s energy consumption by more than 99%. However, it will not necessarily reduce transaction fees significantly as this will occur when scaling takes place via sharding which is expected sometime next year.

On July 19, a Coinbase report on the Merge explained that the next major step, and last dress rehearsal, is the Goerli testnet Merge which has been planned for August 11.

Goerli is the most battle-tested Ethereum environment with the most user activity and the closest simulation of the real thing.

Is This Me who is Thinking that Ethereum will start the BULL RUN with his Merge ??#eth #Ethereum #ethereum2 #ethereum #Bullish #bullish pic.twitter.com/oSHDKTz6vw
— Crypto Diamond (@ImCryptoDimond) July 19, 2022

While the major upgrade is the fundamental driver of current Ethereum market sentiment, the asset is still trading down 68% from its November 2021 all-time high.

There have also been concerns that a significant amount of ETH may flood the market after the Merge and its release from its staking smart contracts.

However, director of research at 21Shares, Eliézer Ndinga, told Cointelegraph that this is unlikely to happen:

“The withdrawals of Ether won't occur until 6-12 months post Merge after the Shanghai upgrade. The withdrawals will be limited to six validators every epoch or ~ 6 minutes to avoid bank runs and keep the network secure.”

A recent survey by Finder, conducted before the most recent rally sai there is still a lot of negative sentiment regarding short-term Ethereum prices.

The panel of 54 industry experts polled thought ETH would be worth $1,711 by the end of 2022, climbing to $5,739 by 2025, before hitting $14,412 by 2030. However, they also thought it would dump to $675 before the year was out.

Finder said there are a couple of macroeconomic factors that could cause this retreat. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates again by 75 basis points during their July 26-27 meeting, which is generally bearish for crypto markets. If Bitcoin takes a dive, Ethereum is sure to follow.

Additionally, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release its advance estimate of second-quarter GDP growth on July 28. Another negative quarter, which is expected, will mean that the country is in a technical recession which is also very bad for risk-on assets such as Ethereum.

bull trap