CPI

BTC price clings to $26,000 with Bitcoin traders braced for the Wall Street open following the latest CPI report.

Bitcoin (BTC) saw snap volatility on Sep. 13 as United States macroeconomic data showed inflation beating expectations.

Fuel, shelter boost August CPI beyond target

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC price action as it threatened a fresh loss of the $26,000 mark.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) print for August came in at 3.7% year-on-year — 0.1% higher than forecast.

“The index for gasoline was the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for over half of the increase,” part of an official press release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics read.

“Also contributing to the August monthly increase was continued advancement in the shelter index, which rose for the 40th consecutive month.”

Earlier on the day, crypto market participants had warned that a “hot” CPI reading would pressure the market, as it would imply that inflation remained more stubborn than hoped. This in turn could have implications for how restrictive economic policy remained in future.

CPI in 1 hour.

Tip: Don't open positions into news announcements and wait 30 mins after data is out to start trading.

Previous: 3.2%
Est: 3.6%

- 3.5% or lower: $BTC will likely hit the liquidity zone at $26800.
- 3.7% or higher: Asian pump likely to get retraced.

— CrypNuevo (@CrypNuevo) September 13, 2023

“I think in next CPI we see +4% with the gasoline prices going up this fast,” popular trader CrypNuevo told subscribers on X (formerly Twitter) in part of a reaction.

“Inflation is still a problem, and a big problem in this second half of the year.”

CPI was already forecast to beat its July year-on-year figure, with August at 3.6% versus the previous 3.2%.

Bitcoin bid liquidity sticks to $25,000 and below

Prior to the release, Keith Alan, co-founder of on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators, was optimistic about the week’s BTC price momentum holding out.

Related: GBTC ‘discount’ hits smallest since 2021 despite BTC price at 3-month lows

“The strength of BTC momentum has faded a bit since yesterday, but so far it's still strong enough to hold on to most of what was reclaimed after the bounce,” part of an X post read.

Alan reiterated that “lots of technical resistance” remained above the current spot price range, this coming in the form of multiple daily moving averages.

With the Wall Street open still to come, volatility was in play, with BTC/USD lacking a clear trend at the time of writing.

An accompanying snapshot of the BTC/USDT order book on largest global exchange Binance showed only modest liquidity surrounding spot price, with more bids parked at $25,000.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin is frustratingly calm and volatility is near historic lows — what could provide BTC price action with fresh fuel to discover a trend this week?

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of August with barely a sound as rangebound BTC price behavior continues.

After one of its least volatile weekly closes, BTC/USD remains stuck at $29,000 — but can the coming seven days provide what is needed to break the deadlock?

Headlining the list of potential volatility catalysts is United States inflation data in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) — a key readout on the way to the next interest rate decision in September.

However, with Bitcoin famously stubborn this quarter, it may take more than that to rediscover a trend.

Elsewhere, on-chain data is pointing to an accumulation phase for whales and other larger investors. Network fundamentals are due to inch higher, while the number of new wallets is defying price action and continuing to grow.

Cointelegraph takes a look at the main topics of interest to keep in mind this week when it comes to BTC price action.

Bitcoin price predictions trend lower after silent weekly close

Bitcoin closed the week without a sound, keeping its narrow trading range firmly in place and offering nothing by way of last-minute surprises.

Data shows BTC/USD acting in a $200 corridor overnight, a status quo still in play at the time of writing.

For popular traders, this risks lower levels entering next, as bulls lack momentum to beat out selling pressure below the key resistance levels of $29,250, $29,500 and $30,000.

“BTC continues to reject at ~$29250. As long as that continues, bias favours to lower prices,” trader and analyst Rekt Capital summarized.

Eyeing a possible support zone immediately below spot price, fellow trader Credible Crypto argued that volatility could pick up simply as a result of the working week returning.

“In any case, want to see some strength here soon or else we might still have one more local low to go (which would be fine),” he told Twitter followers in part of recent analysis.

A pretty muted reaction off of our green zone thus far, but it's also a weekend so might see some strength once the week starts.

In any case, want to see some strength here soon or else we might still have one more local low to go (which would be fine). $BTC https://t.co/Lm4lqxqUFZ pic.twitter.com/3kQ38dbjnb

— CrediBULL Crypto (@CredibleCrypto) August 7, 2023

Continuing, Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, suggested that Monday could provide a local low for Bitcoin to act upon through the week.

“Monday coming up, usually a day that Bitcoin makes it's standard drop. In that case, targeting $28K to bid,” he said.

“If we do not drop to that region, then I clearly want to see a break above $29.7K to add on my longs.”

Querying the return of BTC volatility

Overall, however, Bitcoin is suffering from a clear case of suppressed volume, leading volatility to head back to its lowest-ever levels.

On weekly timeframes, popular trader Skew noted, volume was all but absent. An accompanying volume profile chart showed the background behind Bitcoin’s current multi-month trading range between $26,000 and $32,000.

$BTC 1W Volume Profile (range Nov 2020 - Current)
Pretty useful when it comes to key levels / market inflection points

Key points for volume profile:
HVN - High Volume Node
LVN - Low Volume Node
POC - Point of control
VA - Value Area

Just used the total volume profile here so… pic.twitter.com/49mKz4rV9h

— Skew Δ (@52kskew) August 7, 2023

“Realized volatility for Bitcoin has collapsed to historical lows,” Checkmate, lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, continued at the weekend.

Uploading a chart of Bitcoin’s annualized realized volatility, Checkmate revealed that such flat behavior was last seen over three years ago in the months after the March 2020 COVID-19 cross-market crash.

“Across 1-month to 1yr timeframes, this is the quietest we have seen the corn since after March 2020,” he added.

“Historically, such low volatility aligns with the post-bear-market hangover periods (re-accumulation phase).”

"Reaccumulation" becomes Bitcoin buzzword

The term “reaccumulation” is one appearing frequently in current market conditions.

As Cointelegraph reported, attention is on Bitcoin whales in particular, as these slowly maneuver into what could be the next run to all-time highs.

Reaccumulation has characterized the landscape after every BTC price cycle bear market, and analysts are hoping that this time is no different.

“Retail sold this last bear market, whales didn't flinch,” popular technical analyst CryptoCon argued last week.

“The wind is at our backs this cycle, this is big.”

With whales holding back from selling compared to previous bear markets, while still entering reaccumulation, the bullish case for what comes next is strengthening.

It is not just whales — day traders are giving market cyclist Cole Garner cause for optimism as well.

Asian buyers continue to dominate the day-to-day trading landscape, and this is just as important an indicator that BTC price upside lies ahead, not behind the market.

“When buyers dominate the Asian session, BTC & ETH prices goes up. As a general trend, almost always,” he reasoned in part of a Twitter thread at the weekend.

“When Asia starts selling: usually near a local top.”

Garner described the Asian buying dynamic as “potent alpha nobody talks about.”

To add to the accumulation argument, Bitcoin wallet numbers have preserved their own uptrend despite BTC price returning below $30,000 after local highs.

“This bullish divergence between price and network growth hints at a stable long-term BTC uptrend,” popular analyst Ali responded alongside Glassnode data.

“Buy the dip!”

Fundamentals show signs of recovery

Bitcoin network fundamentals are in two minds this week, echoing a seriously indecisive market mood.

After dropping by just over 3% at its previous automated readjustment two weeks ago, Bitcoin network difficulty is due to recoup some of those losses.

According to estimates from Bitcoin education resource Bitrawr, difficulty should increase by around 1.2% to come within inches of new all-time highs.

Turning to hash rate, a consolidation phase within a broader uptrend is what arguably characterizes the current setup.

Hash rate values vary considerably by estimate, but after recent all-time highs, spikes in activity have cooled in recent weeks.

CPI looms ahead of September Fed rate move

Outside Bitcoin, talk is all about the week’s key macro data release in the form of the U.S. CPI print for July.

Related: BTC price upside ‘yet to come’ at $29K after Bitcoin RSI reset — Trader

Coming as inflation indicators almost unanimously point downward, CPI is a classic volatility catalyst, making Aug. 10 a day full of potential trading opportunities.

“Inflation data this week should give more color as to what the Fed will do in September,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter forecast, ahead of what it called “another busy week.”

Other macro data due in the coming days includes the July Producer Price Index (PPI) print on Aug, 11, as well as S&P 500 firm earnings throughout the week.

Key Events This Week:

1. July CPI Inflation data - Thursday

2. Jobless Claims data - Thursday

3. July PPI Inflation data - Friday

4. Consumer Sentiment data - Friday

5. Total of 3 Fed members speak

6. ~15% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings

Another busy week ahead.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 6, 2023

While Bitcoin has shown increasingly muted reactions to CPI prints in recent months, zooming out, the picture for some market participants remains unequivocally tied to inflation.

“Amazing how if you shift Bitcoins price forward 9 months it literally tracks the rate of change in inflation exactly. It's almost like it could see the future,” Steven Lubka, Managing Director and Head of Private Clients and Family Offices at Bitcoin investment firm Swan wrote in part of recent social media commentary.

'#Bitcoin didn't hedge inflation'
'#Bitcoin had no relationship with CPI'

Amazing how if you shift Bitcoins price forward 9 months it literally tracks the rate of change in inflation exactly

It's almost like it could see the future pic.twitter.com/BfPyJH7jm6

— Steven Lubka (@DzambhalaHODL) July 30, 2023

Magazine: Experts want to give AI human ‘souls’ so they don’t kill us all

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin is tipped to see classic volatility in BTC price around the CPI release, while liquidity remains tightly wrapped around spot.

Bitcoin (BTC) eased higher into July 12 with the key macroeconomic event of the week just hours away.

CPI set to hit lowest since March 2021

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView followed BTC price momentum as it slowly inched closer to $31,000.

The largest cryptocurrency showed little volatility through the start of the week, with local range highs and lows still clearly defined.

#FireCharts shows #Bitcoin ask liquidity moving closer to the active trading zone, while bid support strengthens.

Expecting to see liquidity thinned out in the heart of the active trading range between now and Wed morning to clear the way for volatility around the #CPI report.… pic.twitter.com/T4VoXd1CaD

— Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) July 11, 2023

With liquidity tight around spot price, analysts hoped for a reshuffle upon the release of the June print of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Roughly expected at around 3.2% — the lowest score since March 2021 — CPI should show U.S. inflation continuing to slow down.

“The Cleveland Fed, University of Michigan + Truflation all anticipating a similar number,” financial commentator Tedtalksmacro noted in part of the day’s analysis.

Traders acknowledged that flash volatility could prove deceptive, as Bitcoin tends to decide on trajectory somewhat after the data release.

“There's a good chance we see the usual ‘Darth Maul’ candle where both low timeframe highs & lows are taken out shortly after CPI,” Daan Crypto Trades explained.

“From there on out the real direction for the day is often chosen which could then target the 31.1K or 30.2K level imo.”

"The previous 4 CPI data releases have all followed a very similar pattern for Bitcoin," trading suite Decentrader added on the day.

"Volatility both ways to liquidate everyone, then price reverts back to where it was immediately prior to CPI release."

Bitcoin "looking good" for copycat bull run move

On longer timeframes, popular trader Moustache considered the chances of a repeat performance of classic bull runs.

Related: CPI meets low BTC supply — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

The BTC/USD monthly chart, he noted this week, is in the process of breaking out above its 20-period simple moving average (SMA).

"Every time BTC made a monthly close ABOVE the SMA 20 line, it was the ultimate confirmation of a bull run. For the following 2 years it never again went below this line (except covid crash)," he commented, adding that the current situation was "looking good."

Magazine: Should you ‘orange pill’ children? The case for Bitcoin kids books

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin has plenty of resistance levels to deal with as CPI begins a major macro week for risk asset markets.

Bitcoin (BTC) returned above $26,000 on June 13 as analysts eyed resistance overhead. 

Bitcoin price inches between trend lines

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD attempting to reclaim $26,000 support after the daily close.

The pair had seen a curiously uneventful start to the week, this despite ongoing fallout from United States legal action and markets preparing for a slew of macroeconomic data releases.

Bitcoin thus remained in a narrow range in place since midway through the weekend.

“Risky day for any deep trades,” popular trader Crypto Tony wrote in part of the day’s Twitter analysis, considering upside potential should the support flip occur.

$BTC / $USD - Update

Risky day for any deep trades, but trying this out if we can flip the current supply zone into support ✅ pic.twitter.com/Is00mDPXfV

— Crypto Tony (@CryptoTony__) June 13, 2023

Trading suite Decentrader meanwhile flagged multiple resistance levels to overcome next. It noted that funding rates were climbing, indicating a potential trend reversal already entering.

#Bitcoin Funding rates are starting to climb to 0.01% which typically has been a level for either a pause or a reversal. https://t.co/816f26dDoz pic.twitter.com/6TejFcI7tM

— Decentrader (@decentrader) June 13, 2023

Other traders, including Moustache and Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, noted BTC/USD still holding trend lines which could be cause for optimism — specifically, the 21-week and 200-week exponential moving averages (EMAs).

#Bitcoin - Update$BTC is still holding above the (W) EMA 21 line.

Anyone who has been in crypto long enough, knows how significant this line is.

- Falling wedge still active✅

CPI and FOMC this week.
I think we'll see a lot of volatility. pic.twitter.com/Pgi6qRSQkM

— ⓗ (@el_crypto_prof) June 12, 2023

“Ultimately, we'll see coming few days whether that's going to sustain or whether we'll continue this downwards slope,” Van de Poppe commented the day prior about the latter.

CPI day arrives

Macro data prints for the week center on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) due June 13 — just a day before the Federal Reserve announces interest rate changes.

Related: SEC, CPI and a ‘strong rebound’ — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

The Fed is expected to enact a pause in interest rate hikes, something which would follow a full ten consecutive hikes and mark a long-awaited turning point in policy.

While a potentia boon for risk assets, including crypto, not everyone was upbeat about the impact of a rates freeze.

"The Fed will likely still sound hawkish but the more important question is if they will hold rates where they are (effectively tightening policy) if inflation falls further," analytics account The Long View wrote in part of its latest Twitter commentary.

According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, market odds of a freeze stood at around 75% at the time of writing.

"I think they will as they are highly attuned to the fact that if they start to cut like past cycles they will be helping to reignite rate sensitive sectors effectively undermining the work they have done."

Magazine: Tornado Cash 2.0: The race to build safe and legal coin mixers

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.