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Bitcoin analysts look to November as price action looks to mirror past cycles

October 10, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s months of sideways action have been uncannily similar to the previous two BTC market cycles, which saw a pivot in November leading up to a halving event.

Bitcoin’s ongoing sideways price action could flip bullish as early as November if it behaves similarly to previous cycles leading up to a halving event, according to market observers.

On Oct. 10, crypto analyst Miles Deutscher cited a chart from CryptoCon, noting that the recent patterns for Bitcoin are similar to those seen in previous cycles.

“This is typical sideways price action that occurs from Q2-Q4 in pre-halving years.”

He added that Nov. 21 has historically been a key pivot point for Bitcoin's price to begin trending upward as it heads to the next halving.

For example, following six months of sideways trading in mid-2015, BTC prices starting gaining ground around November. Likewise in 2019, markets spent most of the year flat before taking off around the end of the year.

BTC price performance after each halving. Source: @milesdeutscher on Twitter

Self-proclaimed crypto trader and technical analyst “Mags” made a similar observation, noting that BTC is currently sitting 60% below its all-time high at around 200 days before its scheduled halving, similar to 2015 and 2019.

Bitcoin Halving in Just 200 Days

Ever wondered where Bitcoin was 200 days before in the previous halvings?

In 2016, BTC was -65% below its ATH.

In 2019, BTC was -60% below its ATH.

In 2023, BTC is currently -60% below its ATH.

So, even if it seems like Bitcoin's price… pic.twitter.com/H8dlWcM91y
— Mags (@thescalpingpro) October 9, 2023

Galaxy Trading added that a similar cycle could see a Bitcoin “dump” or bottom around November 10-15.

#BTC #bitcoin

2022-2023 bottom

We had (for now) bottom at 9th November 2022

If we see similar cycle we might have the dump - bottom for 2023 around 10-15th November this year. https://t.co/iNikAekfjq pic.twitter.com/6SmTs5mIVB
— GalaxyTrading (@GalaxyTrading_) October 9, 2023

The Bitcoin halving is around six months away and will occur in late April or early May depending on which countdown timer you refer to.

Meanwhile, in an Oct. 9 report, the head of research at crypto financial services firm Matrixport, Markus Thielen, said Bitcoin price could surge going into 2024, but for different reasons.

“At present, the most critical macroeconomic factor appears to be a reflection of the situation in 2019 when the Fed paused its rake hikes, leading to a significant surge in Bitcoin prices.”

Fed rate hikes and BTC price. Source: Matrixport

Nevertheless, the majority of analysts and observers are in general agreement that the next major bull market will come in the year that follows the Bitcoin halving.

Magazine: Wolf Of All Streets worries about a world where Bitcoin hits $1M: Hall of Flame

‘Evidence is piling’ for a new crypto bull run: Delphi Digital co-founder

August 15, 2023 Coin Telegraph

bull market

Delphi Digital co-founder Kevin Kelly believes a recent change in a key U.S. manufacturing business index could be one of the bellwethers for a crypto bull run.

Several on-chain metrics and charts are showing signals that could hint at the beginning of a new crypto bull market cycle, according to the co-founder of Delphi Digital.

On Aug. 14, institutional crypto research firm Delphi Digital's Kevin Kelly said that crypto markets are cyclical and predictable which “has huge implications for the crypto market going forward.”

"Evidence is piling up that we're in the early stages of a new cycle. Risk assets like stocks [and] crypto have been sniffing this out all year."

Kelly also shared an Aug. 8-dated chart by Delphi Digital, highlighting that Bitcoin follows four-year cycles with distinct patterns that have reliably repeated for the past three cycles — with Bitcoin suffering an 80% drawdown in the first year, recovering to prior highs over two years, before rallying to a new all-time high in the fourth year.

The crypto market is highly cyclical.

Crypto market cycles are also remarkably consistent.

But their consistency isn’t just by coincidence.

They’re predictable.

If we're right, this has huge implications for the crypto market going forward.

Time to air out some charts...
— Kevin Kelly (@Kevin_Kelly_II) August 14, 2023

Kelly noted that Bitcoin cycle peaks also typically coincide with the peaks in the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index — which tracks the health of the manufacturing and service sectors in the United States.

“BTC price peaks occur around the same time the ISM shows signs of topping out. Active addresses, total transaction volumes, total fees – they all peaked alongside tops in the ISM too.”

*BTC price/ISM PMI. Source: Delphi Digital*

Kelly explained that when the business cycle starts to show recovery, so does the crypto market.

“Turning points in the business cycle have historically been ripe opportunities to increase risk exposure,” he said before adding, “It looks like the ISM is nearing the final stages of its two-year downtrend which again risk assets have been sniffing out.”

Bitcoin and crypto markets have been lethargic for the past five months or so but analysts told Cointelegraph that several fundamental factors such as ETF approvals, an end of the rate hikes, and an Ethereum scaling upgrade could bring them out of hibernation.

Magazine: Wolf Of All Streets worries about a world where Bitcoin hits $1M: Hall of Flame