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Bitcoin metric prints ‘mother of all BTC bullish signals’ for 4th time ever

The Bitcoin dollar cost average (DCA) indicator is firmly in "raging" bull market territory, while analysts consider whether its signals are too good to be true.

A Bitcoin (BTC) price indicator has flashed green for just the fourth time ever this week in a major warning to bears.

In a tweet on Feb. 16, crypto market analyst Mohit Sorout announced that the Dollar Cost Average (DCA) Indicator was now “suggesting a raging bull market.”

DCA breakout last preceded 640% BTC price upside

The latest Bitcoin metric to flip bullish on long timeframes, DCA is even getting attention from major Bitcoin investment circles.

Its buy signals are rare, with Sorout seeing just three throughout Bitcoin’s history — but all of that precluded serious BTC price upside.

“Today marks the 4th time this signal is suggesting a raging bullmarket,” he wrote in comments, describing the event as “the mother of all btc bullish signals.”

DCA refers to an investment strategy whereby a buyer allocates a set amount of capital to gain exposure to an asset at set intervals. This could be buying $10 per week in Bitcoin, for example, and the concept is regularly touted as an optimal way of gaining exposure to volatile cryptocurrencies.

The DCA Indicator measures the relative profitability of a hypothetical DCA strategy involving $1 buys per day for a year.

Once it crosses into profitable territory, marked as 365 on its scale, major bull markets begin, Sorout argues. An exception appears to be mid-2022, when a move above the 365 mark subsequently reversed and BTC/USD began its journey to multi-year lows near $15,600.

Nonetheless, amid an atmosphere of increasing faith in Bitcoin’s 2023 recovery enduring, others were also willing to give the latest breakout the benefit of the doubt.

“Rare massive Bitcoin Buy signal,” Dan Tapiero, founder and CEO of 10T Holdings, declared in a repost of Sorout’s findings.

Bitcoin price death crosses and a "failed breakout"

Beyond DCA, another rare bull signal this month comes in the form of the Williams %R Oscillator, Cointelegraph reported.

Related: Bitcoin gained 300% in year before last halving — Is 2023 different?

Depending on the timeframe, however, its Bitcoin bull run signals do not yet point unequivocally to the moon.

Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics who flagged the breakout, is meanwhile warning that Bitcoin’s latest trip to six-month highs represents a “failed breakout.”

The largest cryptocurrency also faces a major hurdle in the form of several moving averages (MAs) overhead, these acting as resistance for much of 2022.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView further showed two MAs in particular forming a "death cross" for the first time ever this month.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 50, 200MA. Source: TradingView

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed here are the authors’ alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Dollar Cost Averaging or Lump-sum: Which Bitcoin strategy works best regardless of price?

A dollar invested into Bitcoin every month since December 2017 has provided investors a cumulative return of $160.

Bitcoin (BTC) has declined by more than 55% six months after it reached its record high of $69,000 in November 2021.

The massive drop has left investors in a predicament about whether they should buy BTC when it is cheaper, around $30,000, or wait for another market selloff.

This is primarily because interest rates are lower despite Federal Reserve's recent 0.5% rate hike. Meanwhile, cash holdings among the global fund managers have surged by 6.1% to $83 billion, the highest since the 9/11 attacks. This suggests risk aversion among the biggest pension, insurance, asset, and hedge funds managers, the latest Bank of America data shows.

Many crypto analysts, including Carl B. Menger, see greater buying opportunities in the Bitcoin market as its price searches for a bottom.

But instead of suggesting a lump-sum investment (LSI), wherein investors throw down a huge sum to enter a market, there's a seemingly safer alternative for the lay investor, called the "dollar cost averaging," or DCA.

Bitcoin DCA strategy can beat 99.9% of all asset managers

The DCA strategy is when investors divide their cash holdings into twelve equal parts and buy Bitcoin with each part every month. In other words, investors purchase more BTC when its prices decline and less of the same asset when its prices rise.

The strategy has so far provided incredible results.

For instance, a dollar invested into Bitcoin every month after it topped out in December 2017—near $20,000—has given investors a cumulative return of $163, according to CryptoHead's DCA calculator. That means a circa 200% profit from consistent investments.

Bitcoin DCA calculator. Source: CryptoHead

The Bitcoin DCA strategy also originates from an opinion that BTC's long-term trend would always remain skewed to the upside. Menger claims that buying Bitcoin regularly for a certain dollar amount could have investors "beat 99.99% of all investment managers and firms on planet Earth."

Cracks in the DCA strategy

Historical returns in traditional markets, however, do not support DCA as the best investment strategy. Instead, the LSI strategy proves to be better.

For instance, a study of 60/40 portfolios by Vanguard, which looked at every 12-month timeframe from 1926 until 2015, showed that all-at-once investments outperformed the DCA two-thirds of the time, averaging 2.4% on a calendar year basis.

Related: Bitcoin ends week ‘on the edge’ as S&P 500 officially enters bear market

This somewhat raises the possibility that Bitcoin, whose daily positive correlation with the benchmark S&P 500 index surged to 0.96 in May, would show similar results between its DCA and LSI strategies in the future.

Thus, investing regularly in Bitcoin with a fixed cash amount might not always give better profits than the all-in method.

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

But what about combining both?

Larry Swedroe, chief research officer for Buckingham Wealth Partner, believes investors should invest with a "glass is half full" perspective, meaning a mix of LSI and DCA.

"Invest one-third of the investment immediately and invest the remainder one-third at a time during the next two months or next two quarters," the analyst wrote on SeekingAlpha, adding:

"Invest one-quarter today and invest the remainder spread equally over the next three quarters. Invest one-sixth each month for six months or every other month."

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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New to crypto trading? Here are 5 tips on how to start 2022 on the right foot

Trading stocks and cryptocurrencies can be complicated, but here are a few tips on how to get started.

It doesn’t matter how experienced you are at trading because nothing can be done to protect a person against the might of cryptocurrencies’ price swings. Currently, Bitcoin’s (BTC) volatility, the standard measure for daily fluctuations, stands at 64% annualized. As a comparison, the same metric for the S&P 500 stands at 17%, while the volatility spec for WTI crude oil is at 54%.

However, it is possible to avoid the psychological impact of an unexpected 25% intraday price swing by following five basic rules. Fortunately, these tactics do not require advanced tools or large sums of money to hold through periods of high volatility.

Plan to refrain from withdrawing money in less than 2 years

Let’s assume that you’ve got $5,000 to invest, but there’s a good possibility that you might need at least $2,000 of that amount within 12 months for travel or car maintenance or some other task.

The worst thing you can do is do a 100% allocation in crypto because you might need to sell your position at the worst time ever, maybe at a cycle bottom. Even if one plans to use the proceeds in decentralized finance (DeFi) pools, there’s always the risk of impairment losses or hacks that compromise access to the funds.

In short, any funds allocated to cryptocurrencies should have a two-year vesting period.

Always dollar cost average

Even professional traders get swept away by the fear of missing out (FOMO), ceding to an urgency to build a position as quickly as possible. But, if everyone is getting 50% and higher returns consistently and even meme coins are posting stellar returns, how can you stand aside and merely watch?

The DCA strategy consists of buying the same dollar amount every week or month, regardless of the market’s movements; for example, buying $200 every Monday afternoon for a year removes the anxiety and pressure caused by the constant need to decide whether to add a position.

Avoid buying all the positions in less than three or four weeks at all costs. Remember, the crypto adoption rate is still in its infancy.

Don’t use too many indicators when conducting analysis

There are countless technical indicators, including the moving average, Fibonacci retracement levels, Bollinger Bands, the directional movement index, the Ichimoku Cloud, the parabolic SAR, the relative strength index and more. If you consider that each one has multiple setups, there are endless possibilities for tracking these indicators.

The best traders are experienced enough to know that reading the market correctly is more important than picking the best indicator. Some prefer to track correlations to traditional markets, while others focus exclusively on crypto price charts. There’s no right and wrong here, except for trying to track five different indicators simultaneously.

Markets are dynamic, and in crypto, that is especially true considering how fast things change.

Learn when to step aside

Eventually, you will read the market incorrectly while finding bottoms or altcoin seasons. Every trader gets it wrong sometimes and there’s no need to compensate by immediately increasing the bet size to recoup the losses. That is precisely the opposite of what one should be doing.

Whenever you catch a “bad break,” step aside for a couple of days. The psychological impact of losses is a heavy burden and will negatively impact your capacity to think clearly. Even if a clear opportunity arises, let that one slide. Go for a walk, or try to organize your life aside from trading.

Truly successful traders are not the most gifted, but those who survive the longest.

Continue to invest in winners

This might be the hardest lesson of them all because investors have a natural tendency to take profit on our winning positions. As discussed previously, crypto market volatility is extremely high, so aiming for a 30% gain will not cover your previous (or future) losses.

Instead of selling winners, traders should be buying more of those. Of course, one should not neglect the market data or the overall sentiment but if your expectations remain bullish, then consider adding to the position until the overall market signals some form of weakness.

One will eventually catch a 300% or 500% gain by being brave and holding on to the most profitable positions. These are the returns you expected when entering such a risky market, so don’t be afraid when they pop up.

Every rule is meant to be broken

If a roadmap to cryptocurrency trading success existed, many people would have found it after many years and the returns would quickly fade. That is why you should always be ready to break your own rules every once in a while.

Do not follow investment advice from influencers or experienced money managers blindly. Everyone has their own risk appetite and capacity to add positions after an unexpected setback. But, more importantly, make sure to take care of yourself along the way!

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Robinhood Launches Recurring Crypto Buy Feature to ‘Help Smooth Out Price Swings’

Robinhood Launches Recurring Crypto Buy Feature to ‘Help Smooth Out Price Swings’On Wednesday, the stock and cryptocurrency trading platform Robinhood rolled out recurring crypto investments and now customers can purchase as little as $1 in crypto commission-free daily, weekly, biweekly, or monthly. The company’s announcement discusses the strategy of investment called dollar-cost averaging “in order to help smooth out the price swings.” Robinhood Rolls Out Recurring […]

New Global Currency Designed To Ditch US Dollar, Avert Sanctions Emerging As BRICS Leaders Prepare To Meet: Report