derivatives

$475M in Bitcoin options expire this week — Are bulls or bears poised to win?

August 10, 2022 Coin Telegraph

ARK

BTC futures data shows bulls are not sure that Bitcoin price will hold above $24,000, but range-bound action could help them profit from Aug. 12’s $475 million options expiry.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been posting higher lows for the past eight weeks, but during this time, BTC has not been able to flip the $24,000 resistance to support on at least three different opportunities. This is precisely why the $475 million Bitcoin options expiry on Aug. 12 might be a game changer for bulls.

Considering the current regulatory pressures in play, there seems to be a good enough rationale for avoiding bullish bets, especially after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission pressed charges against a former Coinbase manager for illegal securities trading on July 21.

The additional impact from the Terra (Luna) — now renamed Terra Classic (LUNC) — ecosystem imploding and subsequent crypto venture capital firm Three Arrows Capital (3AC) registering for bankruptcy continue to weigh on the markets. The latest victim is crypto lending platform Hodlnaut, which suspended user withdrawals on Aug. 8.

For this reason, most traders are holding back their bets above $24,000, but events outside of the crypto market might have also negatively impacted investors' expectations. For example, according to regulatory filings released on Aug. 9, Elon Musk sold $6.9 billion worth of Tesla stock.

Moreover, on Aug. 8, Ark Investment manager CEO Cathie Wood explained that the 1.41 million Coinbase (COIN) shares sold in July were caused by regulatory uncertainty and its potential impact on the crypto exchange's business model.

Most bearish bets are below $23,000

Bitcoin's failure to break below $21,000 on July 27 surprised bears because only 8% of the put (sell) options for Aug. 12 have been placed above $23,000. Thus, Bitcoin bulls are better positioned for the $475 million weekly options expiry.

*Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Aug. 12. Source: CoinGlass*

A broader view using the 1.23 call-to-put ratio shows more bullish bets because the call (buy) open interest stands at $262 million against the $212 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin currently stands above $23,000, most bearish bets will likely become worthless.

If Bitcoin's price remains above $23,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Aug. 12, only $16 million worth of these put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because there is no use in the right to sell Bitcoin at $23,000 if it trades above that level on expiry.

Bulls could pocket a $150 million profit

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Aug. 12 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $21,000 and $22,000: 70 calls vs. 4,200 puts. The net result favors bears by $90 million.
Between $22,000 and $24,000: 1,600 calls vs. 1,460 puts. The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.
Between $24,000 and $25,000: 3,700 calls vs. 120 puts. The net result favors bulls by $90 million.
Between $25,000 and $26,000: 5,900 calls vs. 30 puts. Bulls increase their gains to $150 million.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

Futures markets show bulls are less inclined to show strength

Bitcoin bears need to pressure the price below $24,000 on Aug. 12 to balance the scales and avoid a potential $150 million loss. However, Bitcoin bulls got $265 million worth of leverage long futures positions liquidated between Aug. 8 and 9, so they are less inclined to push the price higher in the short term.

With that said, the most probable scenario for Aug. 12 is the $22,000 to $24,000 range, providing a balanced outcome between bulls and bears. Considering Bitcoin's negative 50% performance year-to-date, even a small $90 million win for bulls could be regarded as a victory, but that would require sustaining BTC above $24,000.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

$29K Bitcoin is closer than you might expect, according to derivatives data

August 10, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

Derivatives data show a clear path to $29,000, but inflation and unemployment data will continue to be crucial to determining BTC price rallies.

Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to battle at the $24,000 resistance and the price was rejected there on Aug. 10, but the rejection was not enough to knock the price out of the 52-day-long ascending channel. The channel has a $22,500 support and this bullish formation suggests that the BTC price will eventually hit the $29,000 level by early October.

*Bitcoin/USD 12-hour price. Source: TradingView*

Bitcoin derivatives data does show a lack of interest from leveraged longs (bulls), but at the same time, it does not price higher odds of a surprise crash. Curiously, the most recent Bitcoin downturn on Aug. 9 was accompanied by a negative performance from U.S.-listed stocks.

On Aug. 8, chip and video graphics card maker Nvidia Corp (NVDA) announced that its 2Q sales would present a 19% drop compared to the previous quarter. Moreover, the U.S. Senate passed a bill on Aug. 6 that could negatively impact corporate earnings. Despite freeing $430 billion to fund "climate, healthcare and tax," the provision would impose a 1% tax on the stock buyback by publicly traded companies.

The high correlation of traditional assets to cryptocurrencies remains a huge concern for some investors. Investors should not be getting ahead of themselves even if inflationary pressure recedes because the U.S. Fed monitors employment data very closely. The latest reading displayed a 3.5% unemployment typical of overly heated markets, forcing the monetary authority to keep raising interest rates and revoking stimulus debt purchase programs.

Reducing risk positions should be the norm until investors clearly indicate that the U.S. Central Bank is closer to easing the tighter monetary policies. That is precisely why crypto traders are following macroeconomic numbers so closely.

Currently, Bitcoin lacks the strength to break the $24,000 resistance, but traders should study derivatives to gauge professional investors' sentiment.

Bitcoin derivatives metrics are neutral-to-bearish

The Bitcoin futures annualized premium measures the difference between longer-term futures contracts and the current spot market levels. The indicator should run between 4% to 8% to compensate traders for "locking in" the money until the contract expiry. Thus, levels below 2% are extremely bearish, while the numbers above 10% indicate excessive optimism.

*Bitcoin 3-month futures’ annualized premium. Source: Laevitas*

The above chart shows that this metric dipped below 4% on June 1, reflecting traders' lack of demand for leverage long (bull) positions. However, the present 2% reading is not particularly concerning, given that BTC is down 51% year-to-date.

To exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument, traders must also analyze Bitcoin options markets. The 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever arbitrage desks and market makers overcharge for upside or downside protection.

If those traders fear a Bitcoin price crash, the skew indicator will move above 12%. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 12% skew.

*Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas*

Data shows that the skew indicator has been ranging between 3% and 5% since Aug. 5, which is deemed to be a neutral area. Options traders are no longer overcharging for downside protection, meaning they might lack excitement, but at least they have abandoned the "fear" sentiment seen in the last few months.

Considering Bitcoin's current ascending channel pattern, Bitcoin investors probably should not worry too much about the lack of buying demand, according to futures market data.

Of course, there is healthy skepticism reflected in derivatives metrics, but the path to a $29,000 BTC price remains clear as long as inflation and employment statistics are under control.

2 metrics signal the $1.1T crypto market cap resistance will hold

August 5, 2022 Coin Telegraph

2 metrics signal the .1T crypto market cap resistance will hold

blackrock

Despite a handful of the top-80 coins gaining 12% or more over the past week, Tether's premium in Asia and futures markets activity show buyers lacking confidence.

Cryptocurrencies have failed to break the $1.1 trillion market capitalization resistance, which has been holding strong for the past 54 days. The two leading coins held back the market as Bitcoin (BTC) lost 2.5% and Ether (ETH) retraced 1% over the past seven days, but a handful of altcoins presented a robust rally.

Crypto markets’ aggregate capitalization declined 1% to $1.07 trillion between July 29 and Aug. 5. The market was negatively impacted by reports on Aug. 4 that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is investigating every U.S. crypto exchange after the regulator charged a former Coinbase employee with insider trading.

*Total crypto market cap, USD billions. Source: TradingView*

While the two leading cryptoassets were unable to print weekly gains, traders’ appetite for altcoins was not affected. Investors were positively impacted by the Coinbase exchange partnership with BlackRock, the world’s largest financial asset manager, responsible for $10 trillion worth of investments.

Coinbase Prime, the service offered to BlackRock’s clients, is an institutional trading solution that provides trading, custody, financing and staking on over 300 digital assets. Consequently, comparing the winners and losers among the top-80 coins provides skewed results, as 10 of those rallied 12% or more over the past seven days:

*Weekly winners and losers among the top-80 coins. Source: Nomics*

FLOW rallied 48% after Instagram announced support for the Flow blockchain via Dapper Wallet. The social network controlled by Meta (formerly Facebook) is expanding nonfungible token integration.

Filecoin (FIL) gained 38% following the v16 Skyr upgrade on Aug. 2, which hardened the protocol to avoid vulnerabilities.

VeChain (VET) gained 16.5% after some news sources incorrectly announced an Amazon Web Services (AWS) partnership. VeChain Foundation explained that the AWS reference was first cited in a May 9 case study.

Tether premium deteriorated slightly

The OKX Tether (USDT) premium is a good gauge of China-based crypto retail trader demand. It measures the difference between China-based peer-to-peer trades and the United States dollar.

Excessive buying demand tends to pressure the indicator above fair value at 100%, and during bearish markets, Tether’s market offer is flooded, causing a 4% or higher discount.

*Tether (USDT) peer-to-peer vs. USD/CNY. Source: OKX*

Currently, the Tether premium stands at 98.4%, its lowest level since June 10. While distant from retail panic selling, the indicator showed a modest deterioration over the past week.

However, weaker retail demand is not worrisome, as it partially reflects the total cryptocurrency capitalization being down 69% year-to-date.

Futures markets show mixed sentiment

Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, have an embedded rate usually charged every eight hours. Exchanges use this fee to avoid exchange risk imbalances.

A positive funding rate indicates that longs (buyers) demand more leverage. However, the opposite situation occurs when shorts (sellers) require additional leverage, causing the funding rate to turn negative.

*Accumulated perpetual futures funding rate on Aug. 5. Source: Coinglass*

As depicted above, the accumulated seven-day funding rate is either slightly positive or neutral for the largest cryptocurrencies by open interest. Such data indicates a balanced demand between leverage longs (buyers) and shorts (sellers).

Considering the absence of Tether demand in Asia and mixed perpetual contract premiums, there is a lack of confidence from traders as the total crypto capitalization struggles with the $1.1 trillion resistance. So, presently, bears seem to have the upper hand considering the uncertainties caused by the SEC pressing charges against a former Coinbase manager.

3 key Ethereum derivatives metrics suggest $1,600 ETH support lacks strength

August 3, 2022 Coin Telegraph

3 key Ethereum derivatives metrics suggest ,600 ETH support lacks strength

Bitifnex

Data shows Ethereum options traders are less bearish than before, but lower gas fees and smart contract deposits give ETH bulls little hope.

Ether (ETH) price is up 60% since May 3, outperforming leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) by 32% over that span. However, evidence suggests the current $1,600 support lacks strength as network use and smart contract deposit metrics weakened. Moreover, ETH derivatives show increasing sell pressure from margin traders.

The positive price move was primarily driven by growing certainty of the "Ethereum merge" transition to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus network in September. During the Ethereum core developers conference call on July 14, developer Tim Beiko proposed Sept. 19 as the tentative target date. In addition, analysts expect the new supply of ETH to be reduced by up to 90% after the network's monetary policy change, thus a bullish catalyst.

Ethereum's total value locked (TVL) has vastly benefited from Terra's ecosystem collapse in mid-May. Investors shifted their decentralized finance (DeFi) deposits to the Ethereum network thanks to its robust security and battle-tested applications, including MakerDAO (MKR) — the project behind the DAI stablecoin.

*Total value locked by market share. Source: Defi Llama*

Currently, the Ethereum network holds a 59% market share of TVL, up from 51% on May 3, according to data from Defi Llama. Despite gaining share, Ethereum's current $40 billion deposits on smart contracts seem small compared to the $100 billion seen in December 2021.

Demand for decentralized application (DApp) use on Ethereum seems to have weakened, considering the median transfer fees, or gas costs, which currently stand at $0.90. That's a sharp drop from May 3, when the network transaction costs surpassed $7.50 on average. Still, one might argue that higher use of layer-2 solutions such as Polygon and Arbitrum are responsible for the lower gas fees.

Options traders are neutral, exiting the “fear” zone

To understand how whales and market makers are positioned, traders should look at Ether's derivatives market data. In that sense, the 25% delta skew is a telling sign whenever professional traders overcharge for upside or downside protection.

If investors expect Ether's price to rally, the skew indicator moves to -12% or lower, reflecting generalized excitement. On the other hand, a skew above 12% shows reluctance to take bearish strategies, typical of bear markets.

*Ether 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas.ch*

For reference, the higher the index, the less inclined traders are to price downside risk. As displayed above, the skew indicator exited "fear" mode on July 16 as ETH broke above the $1,300 resistance. Thus, those option traders no longer have higher odds of a market downturn as the skew remains below 12%.

Margin traders are reducing their bullish bets

To confirm whether these movements were confined to the specific options instrument, one should analyze the margin markets. Lending allows investors to leverage their positions to buy more cryptocurrency. When those savvy traders open margin longs, their gains (and potential losses) depend on Ether's price increase.

Bitfinex margin traders are known for creating position contracts of 100,000 ETH or higher in a very short time, indicating the participation of whales and large arbitrage desks.

*Bitfinex ETH margin longs. Source: Coinglass*

Ether margin longs peaked at 500,000 ETH on July 2, the highest level since November 2021. However, data shows those savvy traders have reduced their bullish bets as the ETH price recovered some of its losses. Data shows no evidence of Bitfinex margin traders anticipating the 65% correction from May to sub-$1,000 in mid-June.

Options risk metrics show pro traders are less fearful of a potential crash, but at the same time, margin markets players have been unwinding bullish positions as the ETH price tries to establish a $1,600 support.

Apparently, investors will continue to monitor the impacts of nominal TVL deposits and demand for smart contracts on network gas fees before making additional bullish bets.

Bitcoin bulls aim for $25K price on Friday’s $510M options expiry

August 3, 2022 Coin Telegraph

<div>Bitcoin bulls aim for K price on Friday's 0M options expiry</div>

Coin Telegraph

BTC price has been gaining momentum as it nears $24,000, and this week's options expiry could help bulls profit $200 million.

Fifty-one days have passed since Bitcoin (BTC) last closed above $24,000, causing even the most bullish trader to question whether a sustainable recovery is feasible. However, despite the lackluster price action, bulls have the upper hand on Friday's $510 million BTC options expiry.

*Bitcoin index/USD 1-day price. Source: TradingView*

Investors have been reducing their risk exposure as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates and unwinds its record $8.9 trillion balance sheet. As a result, the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), which measures price changes in crude oil, natural gas, gold, corn, and lean hogs, has traded down 9% in the same period.

Traders continue to seek protection via U.S. Treasuries and cash positions as San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Aug. 2 that the central bank's fight against inflation is "far from done." With that being said, the tighter monetary impact on inflation, employment levels, and the global economy are yet to be seen.

Bearish bets are mostly below $22,000

Bitcoin's recovery above $22,000 on July 27 took bears by surprise because only 28% of the put (sell) options for Aug. 5 have been placed above such a price level. Meanwhile, Bitcoin bulls may have been fooled by the $24,500 pump on July 30, as 59% of their bets lay above $25,000.

*Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for Aug. 5. Source: CoinGlass*

A broader view using the 1.60 call-to-put ratio shows more bullish bets because the call (buy) open interest stands at $315 million against the $195 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin currently sits above $23,000, most bearish bets will likely become worthless.

For instance, if Bitcoin's price remains above $23,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Aug. 5, only $19 million worth of these put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because there is no use in a right to sell Bitcoin at $22,000 or $20,000 if it trades above that level on expiry.

Bulls might pocket a $200 million profit

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Aug. 5 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $20,000 and $22,000: 100 calls vs. 3,700 puts. The net result favors bears by $75 million.
Between $22,000 and $24,000: 1,400 calls vs. 1,600 puts. The net result is balanced between call (buy) and put (sell) instruments.
Between $24,000 and $25,000: 3,800 calls vs. 100 puts. The net result favors bulls to $90 million.
Between $25,000 and $26,000: 0 calls vs. 7,900 puts. Bulls extend their gains to $200 million.

Bears have less margin required to suppress Bitcoin price

Bitcoin bulls need to push the price above $24,000 on Aug. 5 to secure a $90 million profit. On the other hand, the bears' best-case scenario requires pressure below $22,000 to set their gains at $75 million.

However, Bitcoin bears had $140 million leverage short positions liquidated on July 26-27, according to data from Coinglass. Consequently, they have less margin required to push the price lower in the short term.

The most probable scenario is a draw, causing the Bitcoin price to range between $22,000 and $24,000 ahead of the Aug. 5 options expiry.

Bitcoin derivatives show a lack of confidence from bulls

August 2, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

High correlation to stock markets and recession risks limit optimism on the part of BTC investors.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been trending up since mid-July, although the current ascending channel formation holds $21,100 support. This pattern has been holding for 45 days and could potentially drive BTC towards $26,000 by late August.

According to Bitcoin derivatives data, investors are pricing higher odds of a downturn, but recent improvements in global economic perspective might take the bears by surprise.

The correlation to traditional assets is the main source of investors' distrust, especially when pricing in recession risks and tensions between the United States and China ahead of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. According to CNBC, Chinese officials threatened to take action if Pelosi moved forward.

The U.S. Federal Reserve's recent interest rate hikes to curb inflation brought further uncertainty for risk assets, limiting crypto price recovery. Investors are betting on a "soft landing," meaning the central bank will be able to gradually revoke its stimulus activities without causing significant unemployment or recession.

The correlation metric ranges from a negative 1, meaning select markets move in opposite directions, to a positive 1, which reflects a perfect and symmetrical movement. A disparity or a lack of relationship between the two assets would be represented by 0.

*S&P 500 and Bitcoin/USD 40-day correlation. Source: TradingView*

As displayed above, the S&P 500 and Bitcoin 40-day correlation currently stands at 0.72, which has been the norm for the past four months.

On-chain analysis corroborates longer-term bear market

Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode's "The Week On Chain" report from Aug. 1 highlighted Bitcoin's weak transaction and the demand for block space resembling the 2018–19 bear market. The analysis suggests a trend-breaking pattern would be required to signal new investor intake:

"Active Addresses [14 days moving average] breaking above 950k would signal an uptick in on-chain activity, suggesting potential market strength and demand recovery."

While blockchain metrics and flows are important, traders should also track how whales and market markers are positioned in the futures and options markets.

Bitcoin derivatives metrics show no signs of “fear” from pro traders

Retail traders usually avoid monthly futures due to their fixed settlement date and price difference from spot markets. On the other hand, arbitrage desks and professional traders opt for monthly contracts due to the lack of a fluctuating funding rate.

These fixed-month contracts usually trade at a slight premium to regular spot markets as sellers demand more money to withhold settlement longer. Technically known as "contango," this situation is not exclusive to crypto markets.

In healthy markets, futures should trade at a 4% to 8% annualized premium, enough to compensate for the risks plus the cost of capital. However, according to the above data, Bitcoin's futures premium has been below 4% since June 1. The reading is not particularly concerning given that BTC is down 52% year-to-date.

To exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument, traders must also analyze Bitcoin options markets. For instance, the 25% delta skew signals when Bitcoin whales and market makers are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

If option investors fear a Bitcoin price crash, the skew indicator would move above 12%. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 12% skew.

The skew indicator has been below 12% since July 17, considered a neutral area. As a result, options traders are pricing similar risks for both bullish and bearish options. Not even the retest of the $20,750 support on July 26 was enough to instill "fear" in derivatives traders.

Bitcoin derivatives metrics remain neutral despite the rally toward $24,500 on July 30, suggesting that professional traders are not confident in a sustainable uptrend. Thus, data shows that an unexpected move above $25,000 would take professional traders by surprise. Taking a bullish bet might seem contrarian right now, but simultaneously, it creates an interesting risk-reward situation.

Pro traders may use this ‘risk averse’ Ethereum options strategy to play the Merge

July 31, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

Ethereum's “Merge” upgrade is expected to induce volatility in ETH price, but options traders can safely remain long by using this strategy.

Ether (ETH) is reaching a make-it or break-it point as the network moves away from proof-of-work (PoW) mining. Unfortunately, many novice traders tend to miss the mark when creating strategies to maximize gains on potential positive developments.

For example, buying ETH derivatives contracts is a cheap and easy mechanism to maximize gains. The perpetual futures are often used to leverage positions, and one can easily increase profits five-fold.

So why not use inverse swaps? The main reason is the threat of forced liquidation. If the price of ETH drops 19% from the entry point, the leveraged buyer loses the entire investment.

The main problem is Ether's volatility and its strong price fluctuations. For example, since July 2021, ETH price crashed 19% from its starting point within 20 days in 118 out of 365 days. This means that any 5x leverage long position will have been forcefully terminated.

How pro traders play the “risk reversal” options strategy

Despite the consensus that crypto derivatives are mainly used for gambling and excessive leverage, these instruments were initially designed for hedging.

Options trading presents opportunities for investors to protect their positions from steep price drops and even profit from increased volatility. These more advanced investment strategies usually involve more than one instrument and are commonly known as "structures."

Investors rely on the "risk reversal" options strategy to hedge losses from unexpected price swings. The holder benefits from being long on the call (buy) options, but the cost for those is covered by selling a put (sell) option. In short, this setup eliminates the risk of ETH trading sideways but it does carry a moderate loss if the asset trades down.

*Profit and loss estimate. Source: Deribit Position Builder*

The above trade focuses exclusively on the Aug. 26 options, but investors will find similar patterns using different maturities. Ether was trading at $1,729 when the pricing took place.

First, the trader needs to buy protection from a downside move by buying 10.2 ETH put (sell) $1,500 options contracts. Then, the trader will sell 9 ETH put (sell) $1,700 options contracts to net the returns above this level. Finally, the trader should buy 10 call (buy) $2,200 options contracts for positive price exposure.

It is important to remember that all options have a set expiry date, so the asset's price appreciation must happen during the defined period.

Investors are protected from a price drop below $1,500

That options structure results in neither a gain nor a loss between $1,700 and $2,200 (up 27%). Thus, the investor is betting that Ether's price on Aug. 26 at 8:00 am UTC will be above that range, gaining exposure to unlimited profits and a maximum 1.185 ETH loss.

If Ether's price rallies toward $2,490 (up 44%), this investment would result in a 1.185 ETH net gain—covering the maximum loss. Moreover, a 56% pump to $2,700 would bring an ETH 1.87 net profit. The main benefit for the holder is the limited downside.

Even though there is no cost associated with this options structure, the exchange will require a margin deposit of up to 1.185 ETH to cover potential losses.

Bitcoin struggles to flip $24K to support, but data shows pro traders stacking sats

July 29, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin struggles to flip K to support, but data shows pro traders stacking sats

Coin Telegraph

BTC futures and stablecoin margin data show whales holding steady even as Bitcoin price failed to hold above $24,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) rallied on the back of the United States Federal Reserve's decision to hike interest rates on July 27. Investors interpreted Federal Reserve chairman Jeremy Powell’s statement as more dovish than the previous FOMC committee meeting, suggesting that the worst moment of tight economic policies is behind us.

Another positive news for risk assets came from the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price (PCE) index, which rose 6.8% in June. The move was the biggest since January 1982, reducing incentives for fixed income investments. The Federal Reserve focuses on the PCE due to its broader measure of inflation pressures, measuring the price changes of goods and services consumed by the general public.

Additional positive news came from Amazon after the e-commerce giant reported that its quarterly financial results beat the $119.5 billion estimated revenue by 1.4%. Moreover, Apple released its 2Q results on the same day, matching analyst revenue estimates, while presenting earnings 3.4% above the market consensus.

Top traders have increased their bullish bets

Exchange-provided data highlights traders’ long-to-short net positioning. By analyzing every client’s position on the spot, perpetual and futures contracts, one can better understand whether professional traders are leaning bullish or bearish.

There are occasional discrepancies in the methodologies between different exchanges, so viewers should monitor changes instead of absolute figures.

*Exchanges top traders Bitcoin long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass*

Despite Bitcoin’s 14% correction from July 20 to July 26, top traders on Binance, Huobi and OKEx have increased their leverage longs. To be more precise, Binance was the only exchange facing a modest reduction in the top traders’ long-to-short ratio, moving from 1.22 to 1.20.

However, this impact was more than compensated by OKEx traders increasing their bullish bets from 0.66 to 1.17 in six days. The absence of panic selling after Bitcoin failed to break the $24,000 support on July 20 should be interpreted as bullish.

Had buyers been using excessive leverage or distrustful of a potential upside, the price movement would have caused much grea damage to the long-to-short ratio.

Margin traders are unwilling to place bearish bets

Margin trading allows investors to borrow cryptocurrency to leverage their trading position, therefore increasing the returns. For example, one can buy Bitcoin by borrowing Tether (USDT), thus increasing their crypto exposure. On the other hand, borrowing Bitcoin can only be used to short it—betting on the price decrease.

Unlike futures contracts, the balance between margin longs and shorts isn’t necessarily matched. When the margin lending ratio is high, it indicates that the market is bullish—the opposite, a low lending ratio, signals that the market is bearish.

*OKX USDT/BTC margin lending ratio. Source: OKEx*

The chart above shows that investors’ morale bottomed on July 21 as the ratio reached its lowest level in four months at 8.6. From that point onward, OKX traders presented less demand to borrow Bitcoin, exclusively used to bet on the price downtrend. The ratio currently stands at 13.8, which leans bullish in absolute terms as it favors stablecoin borrowing by a wide margin.

Derivatives data shows no stress from pro traders even as Bitcoin traded below $21,000 on July 26. Unlike retail traders, these experienced whales know when to hold on to their conviction and this attitude was clearly reflected in the healthy derivatives data. The data suggests that traders who expect a strong market correction if Bitcoin fails to break the $24,000 resistance will be disappointed.

Bitcoin rallies after Fed interest rate hike, but bears can still win Friday’s $1.76B options expiry

July 28, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin rallies after Fed interest rate hike, but bears can still win Friday’s .76B options expiry

Coin Telegraph

BTC bears aim for a $360 million profit in July 29’s $1.76 billion monthly options expiry, but the FOMC interest rate decision could play a decisive factor.

Bitcoin's (BTC) price has been stuck in a descending channel since July 20 and it is currently heading toward the $20,000 support by the end of July. Adding to this bearish price action, BTC is down 50% year-to-date, while U.S. listed tech stocks, as measured by the Nasdaq-100 index, accumulated a 24% loss.

*Bitcoin USD price index, 4-hour. Source: TradingView*

As the U.S. Federal Reserve tightens its economic policies by raising interest rates and scaling back debt asset purchases, risk assets have reacted negatively. Fed chair Jerome Powell is set to wrap up a two-day meeting on July 27 and market analysts expect a nominal 0.75% interest rate hike.

Tensions in Europe escalate as the Russian state-controlled gas company Gazprom is slated to cut supplies to the Nord Stream 1 pipeline starting on July 27. According to CNBC, the company blames a turbine maintenance issue, but European officials think otherwise.

Aiding tech stocks' performance on July 27 was the U.S. Senate approval of the "Chips and Science" bill, which provides $52 billion in subsidies backed by debt and taxes for U.S. semiconductor production. An additional $24 billion of credits for the sector is estimated, aiming to boost the research to compete with China.

For these reasons, traders have mixed feelings about the upcoming Fed announcement and the impact of a global crisis on cryptocurrency markets. As long as Bitcoin's correlation to traditional markets remains high, especially tech stocks, investors will seek protection by moving away from risk-on asset classes such as cryptocurrencies.

Bulls placed their hope on $24,000 and higher

The open interest for the July 29 Bitcoin monthly options expiry is $1.76 billion, but the actual figure will be lower since bulls were caught by surprise as BTC failed to break the $24,000 resistance on July 20.

*Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for July 29. Source: CoinGlass*

The 1.18 call-to-put ratio reflects the $950 million call (buy) open interest against the $810 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin stands below $23,000, most of the bullish bets will likely become worthless.

For instance, if Bitcoin's price remains below $23,000 on July 29, bulls will only have $145 million worth of these call (buy) options. This difference happens because there is no use in a right to buy Bitcoin at $23,000 if it trades below that level on July 29 at 8:00 am UTC.

Bears can secure a $360 million profit on Friday

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on July 29 for call (buy) and put (sell) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $19,000 and $20,000: 400 calls (buy) vs. 19,300 puts (sell). The net result favors bears by $360 million.
Between $20,000 and $22,000: 3,900 calls (buy) vs. 11,800 puts (sell). Bears have a $230 million advantage.
Between $22,000 and $24,000: 10,300 calls (buy) vs. 8,600 puts (sell). The net result is balanced between bulls and bears.
Between $24,000 and $25,000: 14,400 calls (buy) vs. 7,100 puts (sell). Bulls have a $175 million advantage.

For example, a trader could have sold a call option, effectively gaining negative exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately, there's no easy way to estimate this effect.

Bitcoin bears need to pressure the price below $20,000 on July 29 to secure a $360 million profit. On the other hand, bulls can avoid a loss by pushing BTC above $22,000, balancing the valid bets from both sides. Bulls seem heavily vested to put their losses behind and start August with a clean sheet, but it could still go either way.

CME crypto futures see record activity during bear market

July 28, 2022 Coin Telegraph

bitcoin futures

The trading of Bitcoin and Ether futures on CME remained elevated in the second quarter, with daily open interest hitting all-time highs.

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) derivatives contracts offered by CME Group saw record activity in the second quarter, offering tangible evidence that professional traders were still accessing digital assets during the bear market.

The average daily open interest (OI) across CME’s crypto futures products reached 106,200 contracts in the second quarter, the highest on record, the company disclosed Thursday. In futures markets, OI reflects the total number of derivatives contracts that have not been settled.

In terms of average daily volume, Bitcoin futures saw 10,700 contracts traded in the second quarter; Ether’s daily volume was 6,100 contracts.

During the week of June 21, large open interest holders (LOIH) accessing CME Group’s crypto products reached a high of 404, signaling “growing interest from institutional and large sophisticated investors,” the company said.

Recession or no recession? Bitcoin traders diverge from the Fed as BTC gains. https://t.co/AeLWgl5zbj
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) July 28, 2022

Despite extreme market volatility for Bitcoin and Ether, CME Group’s crypto futures products have been “a haven of consistent liquidity with continued volume and open interest growth for investors,” Tim McCourt, CME’s global head of equity and FX products, said, adding:

“The variety of products, including the smaller sized micro bitcoin and micro ether futures and options, offers enhanced flexibility and trading precision for a range of market participants, including large institutions as well as sophisticated, active traders.”

In 2017, CME Group became the second derivatives marketplace to offer Bitcoin futures contracts, trailing its cross-town rival CBOE Global Markets by one week. By the end of 2020, CME’s cumulative Bitcoin futures volume reached $100 billion.

The derivatives exchange has since gone on to launch several crypto derivatives products, including micro-sized Bitcoin and Ether options. These contracts are 10% the size of their respective crypto assets, giving traders more opportunities to hedge their exposure.

On Thursday, CME revealed that its Micro BTC product saw an average daily volume of 17,400 contracts in the second quarter. Daily volume for its ETH-equivalent micro contract was 21,300.

Most bearish bets are below $23,000

Bulls could pocket a $150 million profit

Futures markets show bulls are less inclined to show strength

Bitcoin derivatives metrics are neutral-to-bearish

Tether premium deteriorated slightly

Futures markets show mixed sentiment

Options traders are neutral, exiting the “fear” zone

Margin traders are reducing their bullish bets

Bearish bets are mostly below $22,000

Bulls might pocket a $200 million profit

Bears have less margin required to suppress Bitcoin price

On-chain analysis corroborates longer-term bear market

Bitcoin derivatives metrics show no signs of “fear” from pro traders

How pro traders play the “risk reversal” options strategy

Investors are protected from a price drop below $1,500

Top traders have increased their bullish bets

Margin traders are unwilling to place bearish bets

Bulls placed their hope on $24,000 and higher

Bears can secure a $360 million profit on Friday

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