Bitcoin’s recent gains have traders calling a bottom, but various metrics remain bearish

May 30, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Asia

The total crypto market capitalization recovered roughly 5%, but a variety of trading metrics show investors are skeptical about the rally being a trend change.

On May 30, the total crypto market capitalization gained 4% and currently is within reach of a $1.3 trillion market capitalization. The move was enough to erase the losses from the previous seven days and was driven mainly by Bitcoin's (BTC) 4.9% gain during that time frame.

*Total crypto market cap, USD billion. Source: TradingView*

Apart from Bitcoin, Cardano (ADA) was the only large-cap cryptocurrency that managed to close the week with a positive 4.5% performance. Meanwhile, Ether (ETH), BNB, Ripple (XRP) and Solana (SOL) failed to present weekly gains.

Bitcoin’s turn-around happened after the United States stock market presented gains for the first time after seven consecutive negative weeks. The longest losing streak in over a decade for the S&P 500 was followed by a 6.6% positive performance at the closing bell on May 22.

According to Yahoo! Finance, “a favorable batch of quarterly results from major retailers helped at least temporarily mitigate concerns over the toll [that ...] inflationary headwinds could take on profit margins.” For instance, Macy’s (M) gained 29.1% in the week, followed by Nordstrom (JWN) 25.4% positive performance and Ross Stores (ROST) rallied by 21.5%.

Curiously, JP Morgan sent out a research note to clients on May 25, claiming that $38,000 was the fair value for Bitcoin. The global investment bank also said that Terra's (LUNA) collapse did not harm the crypto venture capital demand.

On May 23, during the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, PayPal vice president Richard Nash stated the company’s intention to embrace all possible crypto and blockchain services. After rolling out its Bitcoin trading across the United States in 2020, PayPal continues to expand its digital currency-related offering.

Below are the winners and losers from the past seven days. While the leading cryptocurrencies presented modest movements, some mid-capitalization altcoins presented high volatility.

*Weekly winners and losers among the top 80 coins. Source: Nomics*

Synthetix (SNX) rallied 15.8% after Kwenta, a zero-slippage derivatives trading application powered by Synthetix, reached $325 million in volume.

Helium (HNT) gained 15.2% after details regarding improvement proposal #51 were released on May 27. The change introduces a framework to enable subnets with their own token and governance.

STEPN Governance (GMT) lost 14.6% after blocking users based in mainland China from its mobile app.

Terra Luna Classic (LUNC), previously known as LUNA, moved down 12.2% after the South Korean authorities summoned all employees at Terraform Labs as part of a full-scale investigation.

Due to the mixed performance of altcoin markets, it is worth investigating how traders are positioned according to trading and derivatives indicators.

The Tether premium shows a lack of retail demand

The OKX Tether (USDT) premium is a good gauge of China-based retail trader crypto demand. It measures the difference between China-based peer-to-peer (P2P) trades and the United States dollar.

Excessive buying demand tends to pressure the indicator above fair value. On the other hand, during bearish markets, Tether's market offer is flooded, causing a 4% or higher discount.

*Tether (USDT) peer-to-peer vs. USD/CNY. Source: OKX*

Between May 23 and 30, the Tether premium in CNY terms has averaged a 2% discount, signaling a lack of retail demand. More importantly, the 4% crypto market capitalization rally on May 30 did not change investors' sentiment.

Derivatives indicators are slightly bearish for altcoins

Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, have an embedded rate that is usually charged every eight hours. Exchanges use this fee to avoid exchange risk imbalances.

A positive funding rate indicates that longs (buyers) demand more leverage. However, the opposite situation occurs when shorts (sellers) require additional leverage, causing the funding rate to turn negative.

*Accumulated perpetual futures funding rate on May 30. Source: Coinglass*

Perpetual contracts reflect mixed sentiment as Bitcoin and Ether held a slightly positive (bullish) funding rate, but altcoins signaled the opposite. For example, Solana's negative 0.20% weekly rate equals 0.8% per month, which is irrelevant for most derivatives traders.

The data suggests that investors are not rushing in to confirm that the recent price recovery represents a trend change. While the total crypto market capitalization broke above the $1.3 trillion support, traders are pricing higher odds of a downturn. So far, there is no clear indication of a market bottom according to trading metrics.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Ethereum price dips below the $1.8K support as bears prepare for Friday’s $1B options expiry

May 26, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Ethereum price dips below the .8K support as bears prepare for Friday’s B options expiry

Beacon Chain

Looming macroeconomic concerns and this week’s $1B ETH options expiry threaten to pin Ethereum price under the $1,800 support.

Ether's (ETH) performance over the past three months has been less than satisfying for holders and the 50% correction since April 3 caused the altcoin to test the $1,800 support for the first time since July 2021.

*Ether/USD 1-day chart at Kraken. Source: TradingView*

Due to the volatility in stocks, investors had been seeking shelter in the United States dollar and on May 13 the DXY index reached its highest level in 20 years. DXY measures the USD against a basket of major foreign currencies, including the British Pound (GBP), Euro (EUR) and Japanese Yen (JPY).

Moreover, the 5-year U.S. Treasury yield reached its highest level since August 2018, trading at 3.10% on May 9 and signaling that investors demand larger returns to compensate for inflation. In a nutshell, macroeconomic data reflects risk-averse sentiment from investors and this partially explains Ether's downturn.

Further creating panic among Ether traders was a 7-block chain reorg on Ethereum's Beacon Chain on May 25. A valid transaction sequence was knocked off the chain due to a competing block getting more support from network participants. Fortunately, this situation is not uncommon and it might have emerged from a miner with high resources or a bug.

The main victim of Ether’s 11% price correction was leverage traders (longs) who saw $160 million in aggregate liquidations at derivatives exchanges, according to data from Coinglass.

Bulls placed their bets at $2,100 and higher

The open interest for the Ether’s May monthly options expiry is $1.04 billion, but the actual figure will be much lower since bulls were overly-optimistic. These traders might have been fooled by the short-lived pump to $2,950 on May 4 because their bets for the May 27 options expiry extend beyond $3,000.

The drop below $1,800 took bulls by surprise because virtually none of the call (buy) options for May 27 have been placed below that price level.

*Ether options aggregate open interest for May 27. Source: CoinGlass*

The 0.94 call-to-put ratio shows the slight dominance of the $540 million put (sell) open interest against the $505 million call (buy) options. Nevertheless, as Ether stands near $1,800, every bullish bet is likely to become worthless.

If Ether's price remains below $1,800 at 8:00 am UTC on May 27, none of the $505 million call options will be available. This difference happens because a right to buy Ether at $1,800 or higher is worthless if Ether trades below that level on expiry.

Bears aim for a $325 million profit

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on May 27 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $1,600 and $1,700: 0 calls vs. 230,000 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $370 million.
Between $1,700 and $1,800: 50 calls vs. 192,300 puts. The net result favors bears by $325 million.
Between $1,800 and $2,000: 3,300 calls vs. 150,000 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $280 million.

This crude estimate considers the put options used in bearish bets and the call options exclusively in neutral-to-bullish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For instance, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Ether above a specific price, but unfortunately, there's no easy way to estimate this effect.

Bulls should throw the towel and focus on the June expiry

Ether bears need to sustain the price below $1,800 on May 27 to secure a $325 million profit. On the other hand, the bulls' best case scenario requires a push above $1,800 to reduce the damage by $45 million.

Ether bulls had $160 million leverage long positions liquidated on May 26, so they should have less margin to drive the price higher. With this said, bears will undoubtedly try to suppress Ether below $1,800 ahead of the May 27 options expiry.

Bitcoin creeps toward $30K, but data shows bears in favor for Friday’s $1.8B BTC options expiry

May 25, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin creeps toward K, but data shows bears in favor for Friday’s .8B BTC options expiry

Coin Telegraph

Traders are calling for a “relief rally” to $35,000, but derivatives data shows bears stand to profit from this week’s $1.81 billion BTC options expiry.

Bitcoin (BTC) price has been unable to close above $32,000 for the past fifteen days and is currently down 37% year-to-date. Although that might seem excessive, it does not stand out among some of the largest U.S.-listed tech companies which have also sustained notable losses recently.

In this same 15-day period, Shopify Inc. (SHOP) stock dropped 76%, Snap Inc. (SNAP) crashed 73%, Netflix (NFLX) is down 70% and Cloudflare (NET) presented a negative 62% performance.

Cryptocurrency investors should be less concerned about the current "bear market" considering Bitcoin's 79% annualized volatility. However, that is clearly not the case, because Bitcoin's "Fear and Greed Index" reached an 8 out of 100 on May 17, the lowest level since March 2020.

Traders fear that worsening macroeconomic conditions could cause investors to seek shelter in the U.S. dollar and Treasuries. Japan’s industrial production data released on May 18 showed a 1.7% contraction year over year. Moreover, May 20 retail sales data from the United Kingdom showed a 4.9% decline versus 2021.

Financial analysts across the globe blame the weakened market conditions on the U.S. Federal Reserve's slow reaction to the inflation surge. Thus, traders increasingly seek shelter outside of riskier assets, which negatively impacts Bitcoin price.

Bulls placed most bets above $40,000

The open interest for the monthly May 27 options expiry in Bitcoin is $1.81 billion, but the actual figure will be lower since bulls were caught by surprise as the BTC price has fallen 26% in the last 30 days.

*Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for May 27. Source: CoinGlass*

The 1.31 call-to-put ratio reflects the $1.03 billion call (buy) open interest against the $785 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, 94% of the bullish bets will likely become worthless as Bitcoin currently trades near $30,000.

If Bitcoin's price remains below $31,000 on May 27, bulls will only have $60 million worth of these call (buy) options available. This difference happens because there is no use in a right to buy Bitcoin at $31,000 if it trades below that level on expiry.

Bears can secure a $390 million profit on May 27

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on May 27 for call (buy) and put (sell) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $28,000 and $30,000: 800 calls (buy) vs. 14,200 puts (sell). The net result favors bears by $390 million.
Between $30,000 and $32,000: 2,050 calls (buy) vs. 11,200 puts (sell). Bears have a $250 million advantage.
Between $32,000 and $33,000: 5,650 calls (buy) vs. 9,150 puts (sell). The net result favors bears by $110 million.

This crude estimate considers the call options used in bullish bets and the put options exclusively in neutral-to-bearish trades. Even so, this oversimplification disregards more complex investment strategies.

For example, a trader could have sold a call option, effectively gaining negative exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately, there's no easy way to estimate this effect.

Bitcoin bears need to sustain the price below $30,000 on May 27 to profit $390 million from the monthly options expiry. On the other hand, bulls can reduce their loss by pushing BTC above $32,000, an 8% rally from the current $29,700 price. However, judging by the bearish macroeconomic conditions, bears seem better positioned for May 27 expiry.

Weak stocks and declining DeFi use continue to weigh on Ethereum price

May 24, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

Crumbling tech stock prices, declining DApp use and bearish derivatives data continue to pin ETH price below $2,000.

Ether’s (ETH) 12-hour closing price has been respecting a tight $1,910 to $2,150 range for twelve days, but oddly enough, these 13% oscillations have been enough to liquidate an aggregate of $495 million in futures contracts since May 13 according to data from Coinglass.

*Ether/USD 12-hour price at Kraken. Source: TradingView*

The worsening market conditions were also reflected in digital asset investment products. According to the latest edition of CoinShare's weekly Digital Asset Fund Flows report, crypto funds and investment products saw a $141 million outflow during the week ending on May 20. In this instance, Bitcoin (BTC) was the investors' focus after experiencing a $154 weekly net redemption.

Russian regulation and crumbling U.S. tech stocks escalate the situation

Regulatory uncertainty weighed on investor sentiment after an updated version of the Russian mining law proposal came to light on May 20. The document in the lower chamber of the Russian parliament no longer contained the obligation for crypto mining operators registry nor the one-year tax amnesty. As cited by local media, the legal State department stated that these measures could "possibly incur costs on the federal budget."

Additional pressure on Ether price came from the Nasdaq Composite Index's 2.5% downturn on May 24. In addition, the heavily-tech stock-driven indicator was pressured after social media platform Snap (SNAP) tumbled 40%, citing rising inflation, supply chain constraints and labor disruptions. Consequently, Meta Platforms (FB) shares fell by 10%.

On-chain data and derivatives are in favor of bears

The number of active addresses on the largest Ethereum network's decentralized applications (DApps) has dropped by 27% from the previous week.

*Ethereum network’s most active DApps in USD terms. Source: DappRadar*

The network's most active decentralized applications saw a substantial reduction in users. For instance, Uniswap V3 weekly addresses decreased by 24%, while Curve faced 52% fewer users.

To understand how professional traders, whales and market makers are positioned let's look at Ether's futures market data.

Quarterly futures are used by whales and arbitrage desks primarily due to their lack of a fluctuating funding rate. These fixed-month contracts usually trade at a slight premium to spot markets, indicating that sellers request more money to withhold settlement longer.

These futures should trade at a 5% to 12% annualized premium in healthy markets. This situation is technically defined as "contango" and is not exclusive to crypto markets.

*Ether futures 3-month annualized premium. Source: Laevitas*

Ether's futures contracts premium went below the 5% neutral-market threshold on April 6. There's an evident lack of conviction from leverage buyers because the current 3% basis indicator remains depressed.

Ether might have gained 2% after testing the $1,910 channel resistance on May 24, but on-chain data shows a lack of user growth, while derivatives data point toward bearish sentiment.

Until there's some morale improvement that boosts the use of decentralized applications and the Ether futures premium regains the 5% neutral level, the odds of the price breaking above the $2,150 resistance seems low.

Bitcoin’s current setup creates an interesting risk-reward situation for bulls

May 23, 2022 Coin Telegraph

basis

A slight improvement in equities markets and the resilience of a few key BTC price metrics are giving bulls hope of a reversal.

The Bitcoin (BTC) chart has formed a symmetrical triangle, which currently holds a tight range from $28,900 to $30,900. This pattern has been holding for nearly two weeks and could potentially extend for another two weeks before price makes a more decisive movement.

*Bitcoin/USD 12-hour price at Kraken. Source: TradingView*

For those unfamiliar with technical analysis, a symmetrical triangle can be either bullish or bearish. In that sense, the price converges in a series of lower peaks and higher lows. The decisive moment is the support or resistance breakthrough when the market finally decides on a new trend. Thus, the price could break out in either direction.

According to Bitcoin derivatives data, investors are pricing higher odds of a downturn, but recent improvements in global economic perspective might take the bears by surprise.

The macro scenario has improved and BTC miners are staying busy

According to Cointelegraph, macroeconomic conditions driven by the United States helped drive crypto markets higher on May 23. Before the market opened, United States President Joe Biden announced plans to cut trade tariffs with China, boosting investors' morale.

According to the latest estimates, Bitcoin's network difficulty will reduce by 3.3% at its next automated readjustment this week. The change will be the largest downward shift since July 2021 and it’s clear that Bitcoin's downtrend has challenged miners' profitability.

Still, miners are not showing signs of capitulation even as their wallets' movements to exchanges hit a 30-day low on May 23, according to on-chain analytics platform Glassnode.

While miners' sentiment and flows are important, traders should also track how whales and market markers are positioned in the futures and options markets.

Bitcoin derivatives metrics are neutral-to-bearish

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their fixed settlement date and price difference from spot markets. However, the contracts' biggest advantage is the lack of a fluctuating funding rate, hence the prevalence of arbitrage desks and professional traders.

These fixed-month contracts usually trade at a slight premium to spot markets because sellers are requesting more money to withhold settlement longer. This situation is known technically as "contango" and is not exclusive to crypto markets. Thus, futures should trade at a 5% to 15% annualized premium in healthy markets.

*Bitcoin 3-month futures’ annualized premium. Source: Laevitas*

According to the above data, Bitcoin's basis indicator has been below 4% since April 12. This reading is typical of bearish markets, but the fact that it has not deteriorated after the sell-off down to $25,400 on May 12 is encouraging.

To exclude externalities specific to the futures instrument, traders also have to analyze Bitcoin options markets. The 25% delta skew is extremely useful because it shows when Bitcoin arbitrage desks and market makers are overcharging for upside or downside protection.

If option investors fear a Bitcoin price crash, the skew indicator will move above 12%. On the other hand, generalized excitement reflects a negative 12% skew.

*Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew: Source: Laevitas*

The skew indicator moved above 12% on May 9, entering the "fear" level as options traders overcharged for downside protection. Moreover, the recent 25.4% was the worst reading ever registered for the metric.

Be brave when most are fearful

In short, BTC options markets are still stressed and this suggests that professional traders are not confident in taking downside risk. Bitcoin's futures premium has been somewhat resilient, but the indicator shows a lack of interest from leveraged long buyers.

Taking a bullish bet might seem contrarian right now, but at the same time, an unexpected price pump would take professional traders by surprise. Therefore, it creates an interesting risk-reward situation for Bitcoin bulls.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision

Altcoin prices briefly rebounded, but derivatives metrics predict worsening conditions

May 20, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Asia

Declining demand for Tether and negative futures premiums for altcoins reflect a growing disinterest from crypto investors.

On May 12, the total crypto market capitalization reached its lowest close in 10 months and the metric continues to test the $1.23 trillion support level. However, the following seven days were reasonably calm while Bitcoin (BTC) gained 3.4% and Ether (ETH) added a modest 1.5%. Presently, the aggregate crypto cap stands at $1.31 trillion.

Ripples from Terra's (LUNA) collapse continue to impact crypto markets, especially the decentralized finance industry. Moreover, the recent decline in traditional markets has led to a loss of $7.6 trillion in market cap from the Nasdaq Stock Market Index, which is higher than the dot-com bubble and the March 2020 sell-offs.

On May 17, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed their intention to suppress inflation by raising interest rates but he cautioned that the Fed's tightening movement could impact the unemployment rate.

The bearish sentiment spilled to crypto markets and the "Fear and Greed Index," a data-driven sentiment gauge, hit 8/100 on May 17. This is the metric’s lowest value since March 28, 2020, two weeks after the generalized crash that sent oil futures to negative levels and brought Bitcoin (BTC) below $4,000.

Below are the winners and losers from the past seven days. While the two leading cryptocurrencies presented modest gains, a handful of mid-capitalization altcoins rallied 15% or higher.

Monero (XMR) rallied 22% as investors awaited the "tail emission" to be implemented at block 2,641,623 or sometime around June 4. The community decided to include a 0.6 XMR minimum reward in every block, so miners are not 100% reliant on transaction fees.

Cosmos (ATOM) gained 16.5%, a movement that seems a part of a broader retracement that started on May 12 when ATOM fell to its eleven-month low near $8. It is worth noting that its parent chain, Cosmos Hub, witnessed massive capital outflows from its liquidity pools, according to reporting from Cointelegraph.

Klaytn (KLAY), a blockchain-backed by South Korean internet giant Kakao, announced on May 16 that it would provide infrastructure, and initial nodes, and develop early use cases for the Blockchain-based Service Network (BSN), providing an entry into the Chinese market

The Tether premium shows slight discomfort

The OKX Tether (USDT) premium is a good gauge of China-based retail trader crypto demand. It measures the difference between China-based peer-to-peer (P2P) trades and the United States dollar.

Excessive buying demand tends to pressure the indicator above fair value at 100% and during bearish markets, Tether’s market offer is flooded and causes a 4% or higher discount.

The Tether premium peaked at 5.4% on May 12, its highest level in more than six months, but the movement could have been related to the Terra ecosystem’s massive outflows, which were mainly the USD Terra (UST) stablecoin.

More recently, the indicator showed a modest deterioration as it currently holds a 1.8% discount. The lack of retail demand is not especially concerning because the total cryptocurrency market capitalization lost 34% in the past month.

Altcoin futures reflect disinterest in leverage

Perpetual contracts, also known as inverse swaps, have an embedded rate that is usually charged every eight hours. Exchanges use this fee to avoid exchange risk imbalances.

*Accumulated perpetual futures funding rate on May 20. Source: Coinglass*

Perpetual contracts are reflecting mixed sentiment as Bitcoin and Ethereum hold a slightly positive (bullish) funding rate, but altcoins signal the opposite. For example, Solana's (SOL) negative 0.35% weekly rate equals 1.5% per month, which is not a concern for most derivatives traders.

Considering that derivatives indicators are showing little improvement, there's a lack of trust from investors as the total crypto market capitalization battles to keep the $1.23 trillion support. Until this sentiment improves, the odds of an adverse price movement remain high.

Here’s why bears aim to keep Bitcoin under $29K ahead of Friday’s $640M BTC options expiry

May 19, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Here’s why bears aim to keep Bitcoin under K ahead of Friday’s 0M BTC options expiry

Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin is holding the $30,000 level, but the $640 million in BTC options that expire on May 20 could result in the price visiting recent lows.

Over the past nine days, Bitcoin's (BTC) daily closing price fluctuated in a tight range between $28,700 and $31,300. The May 12 collapse of TerraUSD (UST), previously the third-largest stablecoin by market cap, negatively impacted investor confidence and the path for Bitcoin' price recovery seems clouded after the Nasdaq Composite Stock Market Index plunged 4.7% on May 18.

Disappointing quarterly results from top United States retailers are amping up recession fears and on May 18, Target (TG) shares dropped 25%, while Walmart (WMT) stock plunged 17% in two days. The prospect of an economic slowdown brought the S&P 500 Index to the edge of bear market territory, a 20% contraction from its all-time high.

Moreover, the recent crypto price drop was costly to leverage buyers (longs). According to Coinglass, the aggregate liquidations reached $457 million at derivatives exchanges between May 15 and 18.

Bulls placed bets at $32,000 and higher

The open interest for the May 20 options expiry is $640 million, but the actual figure will be much lower since bulls were overly-optimistic. Bitcoin's recent downturn below $32,000 took buyers by surprise and only 20% of the call (buy) options for May 20 have been placed below that price level.

*Bitcoin options aggregate open interest for May 20. Source: CoinGlass*

The 0.66 call-to-put ratio reflects the dominance of the $385 million put (sell) open interest against the $255 million call (buy) options. However, as Bitcoin stands near $30,000, most put (sell) bets are likely to become worthless, reducing bears’ advantage.

If Bitcoin's price remains above $29,000 at 8:00 am UTC on May 20, only $160 million worth of these put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because a right to sell Bitcoin at $30,000 is worthless if BTC trades above that level on expiry.

Sub-$29K BTC would benefit bears

Below are the three most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on May 20 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

Between $28,000 and $29,000: 300 calls vs. 7,100 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $190 million.
Between $29,000 and $30,000: 600 calls vs. 5,550 puts. The net result favors bears by $140 million.
Between $30,000 and $32,000: 1,750 calls vs. 3,700 puts. The net result favors the put (bear) instruments by $60 million.

For example, a trader could have sold a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Bitcoin above a specific price, but unfortunately, there's no easy way to estimate this effect.

Bulls have little to gain in the short-term

Bitcoin bears need to pressure the price below $29,000 on May 20 to secure a $190 million profit. On the other hand, the bulls' best case scenario requires a push above $30,000 to minimize the damage.

Considering Bitcoin bulls had $457 million in leveraged long positions liquidated between May 15 and 18, they should have less margin required to drive the price higher. Thus, bears will try to suppress BTC below $29,000 ahead of the May 20 options expiry and this decreases the odds of a short-term price recovery.

Lost SOL? Persistent challenges continue to impact Solana price

May 19, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

SOL price has been repeatedly knocked down by network outages, a shrinking total value locked on the network and futures traders’ disinterest in trading the altcoin.

The past thirty days have been an extremely bearish time for cryptocurrencies. The sector's aggregate market capitalization plunged 33% to $1.31 trillion and Solana's (SOL) downfall has been even more brutal. Currently, SOL has seen a 50% correction and trades at $51.

*Solana/USD price at Coinbase (blue) vs. altcoin capitalization (orange). Source: TradingView*

The network aims to overcome the Ethereum blockchain's scalability problem by incorporating a proof-of-history (PoH) mechanism into a proof-of-stake (PoS) blockchain. With PoH, Solana delegates a central node to determine a transaction time that the entire network can agree on.

The low fees delivered by the Solana network have enticed developers and users alike, but the frequent network outages continue to cast doubt on the centralization issue and it has likely scared away some investors.

Pinning the underperformance exclusively to the 7-hour network outage on April 30 seems too simplistic, and it doesn't explain why the decoupling started a month earlier. According to Solana Labs, the issue was caused by bots initiating numerous transactions on Metaplex, a nonfungible token (NFT) marketplace built on Solana.

The transaction volume surpassed six million per second during its peak, overflowing individual nodes and as a consequence, validators ran out of data memory which led to a loss of consensus and network interruption.

To mitigate the issue, developers introduced three steps: a change in the data transfer protocol, stake-weighted transaction processing and "fee-based execution priority."

TVL and the number of active addresses dropped

Solana's main decentralized application metric started to display weakness earlier in November after the network's total value locked (TVL), which measures the amount deposited in its smart contracts, repeatedly failed to sustain levels above 60 million SOL.

*Solana network Total Value Locked, SOL. Source: Defi Llama*

However, the 50% price correction has other factors than just a reduced TVL. To confirm whether DApp use has effectively decreased, investors should also analyze the number of active addresses within the ecosystem.

*Solana dApps 7-day on-chain data. Source: DappRadar*

May 18 data from DappRadar shows that the number of Solana network addresses interacting with the top-7 decentralized applications dropped, except for the DEX exchange Orca. The reduced interest in Solana DApps was also reflected in SOL’s futures markets.

*Solana futures aggregate open interest. Source: Coinglass*

The above chart shows how Solana futures open interest declined by 22% in the past month to the current $510 million. That is especially concerning because a smaller number of futures contracts might reduce the activity of arbitrage desks and market makers.

SOL is likely to experience more pain

It's probably impossible to pinpoint the exact reason for Solana's price drop, but centralization issues after multiple network outages, a decrease in the network's DApps use and fading interest from derivatives traders are three factors contributing to the decline.

The data reviewed in this article suggests that Solana holders should not expect a price bounce anytime soon because the network health metrics remain under pressure. There's no doubt that Solana Labs has been working to reduce its dependence on the networks' validators, but at the same time, investors want to avoid centralized projects.

Should the sentiment start to improve, there should be an inflow of deposits, increasing Solana's TVL and the number of active addresses. As long as these indicators continue to deteriorate, there's no way to predict a price bottom for SOL.

Dutch regulator says crypto not yet suitable as means of payment or investment

May 18, 2022 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

Paul-Willem van Gerwen from the AFM believes the retail investors should forbear the crypto derivatives trade .

A Dutch regulator stated that the crypto derivatives market should be restricted to wholesale trade. The reasons are not unfamiliar — lack of transparency, market manipulation and “other forms of criminal activity.”

On May 12, the head of Capital Markets and Transparency Supervision at the Dutch Authority for Financial Markets (AFM), Paul-Willem van Gerwen, shared his opinion on the crypto derivatives trade at the Amsterdam Propriety Traders Managers Meeting.

Van Gerwen highlighted, that despite (or perhaps because of) the market’s rising interest in crypto derivatives trading, the AFM “do regard such trade as entailing risks” and consider this market to be not as mature as the other derivatives markets. A specific problem arising from the volatility of the crypto products, according to van Gerwen, leads to a question of whether “the parties to the derivative transaction will be in a position to fulfill their promises.”

Hence, the AFM believes that operations with crypto derivatives should be restricted to the wholesale trade. The official acknowledged that, unlike its British counterparts from the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), the AFM has not banned such trade, but alluded that it surely might do so:

“Don’t get caught up in the excitement of this trading, don't let yourself be tempted into retail trading.”

He also added, “Cryptos and derived tools aren’t yet suitable as a means of payment and/or investment.”

Another topic van Gerwen mentioned in his speech was the distributed ledger’s impact on clearing. At this he sounded much more optimistic, acknowledging the advantages of using the blockchain in clearing operations, but, yet again, was cautious while commenting on the industry’s possible role:

“In principle proprietary traders don’t get involved in clearing. And yet the technological developments could lead to a situation in which a peer-2-peer model arises, with proprietary traders possibly starting to engage in clearing themselves.”

Further reading: Binance reportedly halts crypto derivatives service in Spain

The speaker encouraged the attendees to take part in DLT pilot cases that the Dutch financial authorities are managing in a sandbox environment.

In August 2021 the central bank of the Netherlands issued a warning to Binance for offering crypto services without the required legal registration.

BitMEX launches spot crypto exchange following $30M penalty

May 17, 2022 Coin Telegraph

BitMex

Founded in 2014, BitMEX is one of the world’s oldest crypto trading platforms, but it has never offered spot crypto trading till now.

Global crypto derivatives exchange BitMEX is expanding its platform beyond just derivatives by finally launching a spot crypto trading platform.

BitMEX officially announced on May 17 that its spot crypto exchange, the BitMEX Spot Exchange, is now live, allowing retail and institutional investors to buy, sell and trade cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH).

At launch, the exchange supports seven pairs of cryptocurrencies, including BTC, ETH, Chainlink (LINK), Uniswap (UNI), Polygon (MATIC), Axie Infinity (AXS) and ApeCoin (APE), all trading against the Tether stablecoin (USDT).

The launch of the BitMEX Spot Exchange comes as the company plans to become one of the top ten largest spot exchanges in the world. The company decided to build its own spot exchange last year in response to the increasing crypto trading demand from its current user base, according to the announcement.

“Today, BitMEX is one step closer to providing our users with a full crypto ecosystem to buy, sell, and trade their favourite digital assets. We will not rest as we aim to deliver more features, more trading pairs, and more ways for our clients to take part in the crypto revolution,” BitMEX CEO Alexander Höpner said.

Founded in 2014, BitMEX is one of the world’s largest and oldest crypto trading companies, starting providing its services about six years after Bitcoin was launched. Unlike spot exchanges, BitMEX has been mainly focusing derivatives, allowing users to buy and sell contracts like futures, options and perpetuals on a wide range of crypto assets.

At the time of writing, BitMEX is one of the top 30 biggest derivatives crypto trading platforms, with daily trading volume amounting to $841 million, according to data from CoinMarketCap. BitMEX was ranked one of the biggest derivatives platforms by open interest alongside Binance as of 2020.

BitMEX has faced some legal issues recently, with founders Arthur Hayes and Hong Konger Benjamin Delo pleading guilty to violating the Bank Secrecy Act in February 2022. The court eventually ordered a total of $30 million civil monetary penalties from the three co-founders of BitMEX crypto derivatives exchange in March.

The firm also reportedly laid off about 75 employees — or a quarter of the company’s staff — in April, following a failed acquisition of the German bank Bankhaus von der Heyd.

BitMEX did not immediately respond to Cointelegraph’s request for comment. This article will be updated pending new information.

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