In Its Entire History, Bitcoin Has Only Spent 0.81% of Its Life Above the $60K Line

March 3, 2024 Bitcoin.com

As BTC Slides Toward Resistance, the Chance of a Rare Triple Top Formation Comes Into Play

May 9, 2022 Bitcoin.com

Trader who called 2017 Bitcoin price crash raises concerns over ‘double top’

December 10, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

The bearish setup sees Bitcoin price crashing to as low as $25,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) could be forming a so-called "double top" pattern after falling by over 30% from its record high of $69,000, suggests Peter Brandt, a veteran trader known for correctly calling the crypto market top in December 2017.

The bubble has been popped. Bull market in $BTC over for some time. For analog look at Gold chart from 2011 on wards pic.twitter.com/AUSiGH0eCg
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) December 22, 2017

The Factor LLC CEO recalled Bitcoin's inability to extend its price rally above its previous all-time high near $65,000 after a second try. Meanwhile, he illustrated an immediate support level for the BTC price at a so-called neckline near $30,000 while alerting about further declines below this key level.

*BTC/USD weekly price chart featuring double top pattern. Source: TradingView, Peter Brandt*

Is a 50% Bitcoin price crash realistic?

In detail, traditional chartists perceive the formation of two consecutive tops, each leading to a strong price retracement to the downside, as a sign of bearish reversal. The downside target in a double top scenario comes to be approximately as deep as the height of the pattern's formation.

But the double top downside target is somewhat unrealistic here because confirmation of the pattern would suggest a nearly $35,000 decline in Bitcoin price. Meaning, BTC price would be at risk of crashing below $0 in a perfect world, a scenario which is highly unlikely.

Nonetheless, should the price break bearish below the neckline of $30,000, Bitcoin's ultimate downside target may turn out to be the 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the orange wave in the chart below), currently about 50% below the current price levels, near $23,500.

*BTC/USD daily price chart featuring 200-week EMA support. Source: TradingView*

The 200-week EMA has been instrumental in calling out the bottoms in a bear market, as shown by the upward-pointing arrows in the chart above. However, Brandt reminded:

"A chart pattern is NOT NOT NOT a chart pattern until it is completed and confirmed. Until that time it is only of passing interest to me."

Just another BTC price dip?

Ignoring the potential bearish outlooks, Bitpanda's chief product officer Lukas Enzersdorfer-Konrad asserted that Bitcoin's price decline from $69,000 to $42,000 is similar to its May 2021 price crash, wherein it plunged by over 50%, only to pare all those losses and hit a new record high later.

"Similarly to the recent drop, overleveraged positions increased volatility and wiped away most of the long positions," Enzersdorfer-Konrad told Cointelegraph in a statement via email as he referred to the $2.5 billion worth of liquidation in a matter of hours on Dec. 4, which caused around 20% intraday correction in most liquid crypto assets.

The analyst added:

"The Bitcoin market needs some time to recover in these situations, and intraday charts are still volatile, but it is still bullish on the higher time frame."

From a bullish technicals standpoint, one popular independent market analyst known by the pseudonym "Wolf," presented Bitcoin as an oversold asset based on its relative strength index (RSI) readings on a daily-timeframe chart.

*BTC/USD daily price chart featuring RSI bounce. Source: TradingView, @IamCryptoWolf*

Wolf anticipated the BTC price to test $51,780 as its next resistance level, with an extended upside target at near $60,000.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Litecoin grapples with ‘double top’ risks after LTC price rallies 37% in November

November 15, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Altcoin

The classic bearish setup projects Litecoin price potentially falling to $200 in the coming sessions.

A 37% November price rally in Litecoin (LTC) risks exhaustion as the "silver cryptocurrency" hints at forming a Double Top chart pattern.

The classic bearish reversal setup appears when the price forms two consecutive peaks of almost the same height, with each upside move meeting with a strong correction towards a common support level, called the "neckline."

Typically, the price breaks below the support and falls by as much as the maximum height between the Double Top's peak and neckline.

So it appears, Litecoin is halfway through forming a Double Top pattern, as shown in the chart below.

*LTC/USD four-hour price chart featuring 'Double Top' pattern. Source: TradingView*

In detail, the LTC price peaked out on Nov. 10 near $295.50 — the first top — before correcting lower towards the neckline support of around $249. That followed up with a rebound to $280 — the second top, eventually attracting profit-takers to cause a minor correction, which is still underway.

Litecoin would need to extend its selloff to retest the neckline. Meanwhile, breaking below the support level would activate the Double Top breakout setup, with the profit target sitting near $200.

The Bitcoin correlation

Litecoin's bearish reversal pattern emerges when inflation in the U.S. has surged to a three-decade high, prompting investors to seek hedge across various financial instruments.

For instance, the most actively traded gold futures lately posted to its best week in six months, jumping 2.9% to $1,868.50 per troy ounce, after the U.S. Labor Department reported an increase in the consumer price index (CPI) by 6.2% year-over-year. That marked the fifth-straight month of inflation above 5%.

Many investors/traders turned to Bitcoin after perceiving it as a safety net against rising inflation, noted Wilfred Daye, head of Securitize Capital, the asset-management arm of Securitize Inc., admitting that people have picked the cryptocurrency as a hedge despite its concerning price volatility.

“We don’t have long enough history to assert Bitcoin is indeed an inflation hedge,” Daye said, adding:

“I would argue that gold is a better inflation hedge still. But Bitcoin as an inflation hedge is a new sexy concept -- people love new ideas."

Bitcoin's growth has also helped altcoins rise in tandem thanks to its broader influence across the crypto market. Litecoin has been one of the beneficiaries of the rally, with its one-year correlation efficiency with Bitcoin standing at 0.71 above zero, per data collected from Crypto Watch.

*LTC/USD versus BTC/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView*

As a result, concerns over persistently higher inflation have acted as a tailwind for Litecoin gains through Bitcoin. That could somewhat play spoilers for the bearish Double Top setup presented above — and validate a bullish pattern that has been active since last weekend.

Litecoin "Bull Pennant" puts LTC target at $350

Dubbed Bull Pennant, the bullish continuation pattern appears when the price consolidates sideways inside a Triangle-structure after a strong rally upward. Traders confirm a bullish breakout when the price breaks above the Triangle's upper trendline with strong volumes.

In doing so, they eye the level at length equal to the height of the previous uptrend (aka Flagpole) as their profit target. As a result, Litecoin's price eyes an extended upside move towards $350, as shown via the setup in the chart below.

*LTC/USD four-hour price chart featuring Bull Pennant setup. Source: TradingView*

Meanwhile, failing to have a decisively bullish follow-through risk activating the Double Top setup. That brings the "multi-month ascending trendline support" in the picture as the next downside target should there be a bearish breakdown move; coincidentally, the target is also near $200.

Ethereum forming a double top? ETH price loses 12.5% amid Evergrande contagion fears

September 20, 2021 Coin Telegraph

Cathie Wood

The pattern's neckline support near $1,984 emerges as Ethereum's downside target.

Ethereum's native asset Ether (ETH) prices slumped on Sept. 20 amid a broad selloff in the cryptocurrency market, led by worries about a potential housing bubble crisis brewing in China.

The ETH/USD exchange rate dropped as much as 12.52% to $2,911 on the Coinbase exchange, hitting its lowest levels since the beginning of August 2021. Elsewhere in the crypto market, Bitcoin (BTC), Binance Coin (BNB), Cardano (ADA), Solana (SOL), and other top tokens plunged in tandem.

*The performance of top ten crypto assets in the past 24 hours. Source: Messari*

The drop imitated the mood in the broader market as United States equities plunged following a day of red in both the Asia-Pacific and European indexes. On the other hand, the U.S. dollar and government bonds surged on haven-buying.

At the core of Monday's sell-off was a liquidity crisis at Chinese property developer Evergrande. The world’s most indebted property developer faces obligations of more than $300 billion to creditors. That also includes a critical interest payment deadline on its offshore bonds, arriving on Sept. 23.

DW noted that if the Evergrande topples, it could bring many banks down with it, same as the Lehman brothers did during the 2008's housing bubble crisis in the United States.

Although Ether does not trade in sync with global markets, its 30-day correlation with Bitcoin, the leading digital asset exposed to macroeconomic fundamentals, sits near 0.85. As a result, the altcoin appeared to have faced an indirect consequence to China's looming housing crisis.

Bearish pattern triggered

The latest bout of selling in the Ethereum market also triggered a classic bearish pattern, which has a 75% accuracy when it comes to hitting its downside targets.

Dubbed the "Double Top,' the pattern develops after the price rallies strongly, pulls back, rises again towards the previous peak, and corrects all over again — all while standing atop the so-called neckline support. Ultimately, the price falls below the neckline and targets levels located as deep as the distance between Double Top's peak and the neckline.

Ether appears to be halfway through while painting a Double Top pattern. The cryptocurrency's chart below shows that it topped near $4,385 on May 12, fell towards the neckline support of $1,984 and rose back to another sessional peak of $4,030 on Sept. 3.

*ETH/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView.com*

If the Double Top pattern flourishes, the ETH/USD rates could extend their ongoing selloff toward $1,984 for a potential breakdown move afterward. Nonetheless, it does not look feasible for ETH/USD to drop aggressively below the $1,984-neckline.

The level is also near the Ether's 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) (the velvet wave) currently at $2,118, offering another support layer to safeguard Ether's bullish bias. Earlier, the wave acted as an entry-level for bulls following sharper ETH/USD pullbacks.

At the same time, on a daily timeframe, the next support line for Ether appears near its 200-day EMA (the orange wave) at $2,536. Thus, a sharp pullback from the said level could negate the Double Top setup.

*ETH/USD daily price chart featuring 200-day EMA support. Source: TradingView.com*

Fundamentals

Ether continues to eye adoption against Ethereum's role in backing the booming decentralized finance (DeFi) and nonfungible token (NFT) industry. In the recent SALT conference, Cathie Wood, the CEO of Ark Invest, also said that investors should allocate at least 40% of their crypto portfolios to Ether.

Ark Investment CEO @CathieDWood's confidence in Ethereum and Bitcoin is growing.

Projecting a 10x growth rate over the next five years, the firm’s crypto exposure is likely to be split: 60% BTC and 40% ETH. https://t.co/VQCZhVCD3m
— Cointelegraph (@Cointelegraph) September 15, 2021

Excerpts from Wood's statement:

“I’m fascinated with what’s going on in DeFi, which is collapsing the cost of the infrastructure for financial services in a way that I know that the traditional financial industry does not appreciate right now.”

Bearish or Bullish? Bitcoin Traders Argue Over Death Cross Outcome

June 20, 2021 Bitcoin.com

Double Top