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Coinbase stock will be ‘weighed down’ until US rules are clear: Citi

The investment bank downgraded Coinbase stock to "Neutral" amid the exchange's ongoing battle with U.S. regulators.

Crypto exchange Coinbase’s stock price will continue to be “weighed down” until regulators establish the legal “rules of the road” in the United States, according to investment analysts from Citi.

As per reports on May 1, the investment bank downgraded shares of the crypto exchange from “Buy” to “Neutral” and lowered its price target — citing “too many unknowns” as the company battles it out with regulators.

Screenshot of the analyst note from Citi. Source: Twitter

"Until the regulatory 'rules of the road' are better established in the U.S., the stock will remain weighed down by this high level of uncertainty," Citi analyst Peter Christiansen wrote in a May 1 note.

In March, Coinbase disclosed it had received a Wells notice from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) over possible violations of securities laws — signaling possible future enforcement action.

In April, it shot back at the SEC, filing a federal court action compelling the SEC to give clarity into the regulatory treatment of certain digital assets.

Later in the month, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Chief Legal Office Paul Grewal released a public response to the March Wells notice on YouTube.

“As it stands, both long and short debates begin and end with Coinbase's regulatory predicament,” said Christiansen, noting there could be a few ways the regulatory scuffle could play out:

“Clarity could come from: (i) a lengthy legal process vs. the SEC, where the possibility of an operating injunction cannot be ruled out, (ii) long-awaited legislative movement amidst a challenging legislative calendar and an upcoming election year, and/or even (iii) Ripple’s ongoing legal process, which could be potentially precedent setting,” the analyst wrote.

The analyst noted that the latest SEC developments don’t suggest that the parties are close to any resolution.

Related: Coinbase is planning to set up crypto trading platform outside US: Report

At the time of writing, Coinbase is trading at $51.32, down 58.5% over the past year, as per Yahoo Finance.

Coinbase share price over a year period. Source: Google

Itsstock price slumped around 16% on March 22 after it disclosed it received the Wells notice.

The company has recently become the target of two proposed class action lawsuits, one of which alleges it breached privacy laws in Illinois over its collection of customer biometrics, and the other alleging certain executives profited from insider information when the company went public.

Magazine: Crypto regulation — Does SEC Chair Gary Gensler have the final say?

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S&P Global downgrades Coinbase credit rating for weak Q2 earnings, competitive pressures

Coinbase Global sees its credit rating downgraded by S&P Global amid regulatory pressures, weakened market performance and competitors.

Major American cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase saw its long-term issuer credit rating downgraded from BB+ to BB status by rating agency S&P Global following its latest earnings report this year.

The agency confirmed the downgrade in a note on Aug. 11, pointing toward Coinbase’s weaker performance in the second quarter of 2022 as a driving factor. Intensified competitive risk in the cryptocurrency exchange sector was also highlighted, with Coinbase losing market share to competitors this year.

“The negative outlook reflects uncertainties about the duration of the crypto market downturn and the company's ability to operate efficiently by managing operating expenses prudently.”

The downgrade also reflected the potential for ‘further market share deterioration’ driven by the competitive landscape and regulatory risk. The rating agency noted that total trading volume at Coinbase declined 30% quarter on quarter, while total cryptocurrency spot trading volume across all venues declined only 3%, leading to a lower market share.

The note conceded that spot trading has become more concentrated among market-makers and high-frequency trading firms, of which Coinbase has a far smaller market share.

The ongoing cryptocurrency bear market has also left its mark, with S&P Global highlighting total assets on Coinbase declining 63% to $96 billion from the first quarter, which has been driven by weakened cryptocurrency values and net outflows from institutional clients.

Related: Coinbase posts $1.1B loss in Q2 on ‘fast and furious’ crypto downturn

Binance’s move to do away with its Bitcoin trading fees around the world also led the rating agency to believe that Coinbase could be forced to review its own fee structures which remains a major revenue source for the company:

“We believe higher trading fees at Coinbase compared with peers, combined with such aggressive pricing actions by competitors, could increase the risk of fee compression in its retail channel (which generated about 80% of the company's total revenues in the first half of 2022).”

Regulatory pressures are also a concern, with Coinbase under the scrutiny of ongoing investigations into its staking programs and classification of various listed cryptocurrency tokens. A former Coinbase employee was also charged with securities fraud by the U.S. SEC in July 2022, putting the exchange further under the microscope.

Despite the downgrade, S&P Global expects Coinbase to maintain ‘low overall risk’ despite macro factors that have exacerbated the recent cryptocurrency market downturn.

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