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Will Trump pardon SBF? 6 weird Polymarket betting pools on US politics

As the US elections approach, crypto policy betting surges on Polymarket. From traditional political predictions to quirky, unexpected wagers, users are placing bets on what’s to come.

Crypto betting platform Polymarket has received mainstream attention as betting pools on the United States presidential elections have helped the platform surpass $1 billion in volume. 

Polymarket allows individuals to anonymously create market betting pools on almost any event, with outcomes determined in a binary “yes” or “no” format. While most users focus on straightforward bets, a subset of investors gravitate toward more unorthodox wagers.

As election day approaches and crypto policies become a prominent topic in the campaign, a wide range of wagers related to politicians and crypto policies are on the rise. These bets range from conventional political predictions to humorous and bizarre speculations.

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Donald Trump uses Bitcoin to buy burgers at NYC bar

Pubkey, a Bitcoin bar in New York City, hosted the former US President and 2024 Republican nominee for a campaign stop on Sept. 18.

Republican Party presidential nominee Donald Trump appeared in a New York City bar and restaurant famous for accepting Bitcoin, becoming the first former US president to use the cryptocurrency in a transaction. 

According to a Sept. 18 X post by Pubkey, Trump used Bitcoin (BTC) to purchase hamburgers at the NYC bar. BTC advocate and Professional Capital Management CEO Anthony Pompliano was in attendance at the campaign stop, which was also reported on Trump’s Truth Social account. 

The event came less than two days after the Republican nominee announced the launch of a token through the World Liberty Financial crypto platform, run by members of his family. Despite once calling Bitcoin a “scam” and crypto “based on thin air,” Trump has advocated for BTC miners as part of his 2024 campaign and spoken at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville.

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Venezuela opposition’s Bitcoin reserve plan must overcome political turmoil first

Opposition leader María Corina Machado proposed adding Bitcoin to Venezuela’s reserves for a new era led by Edmundo Gonzalez.

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado‘s proposal to include Bitcoin (BTC) in the country’s national reserves appeals to both Venezuelans and Bitcoin supporters alike. 

However, there’s a lingering distrust in the country’s political system and uncertainty over whether this proposal could realistically help the current crisis or if it’s just political posturing.

On Sept. 6, Machado acknowledged in an interview that many Venezuelans turned to Bitcoin as a “lifeline” during the country’s hyperinflation crisis, using it not only to preserve their wealth but also to fund their escape from the country.

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Judge says CFTC exceeded its authority halting Kalshi election bets

According to Judge Jia Cobb, having Kalshi offer contracts on “whether a chamber of Congress will be controlled by a specific party in a given term” was not unlawful.

A federal judge has granted partial summary judgment in Kalshi’s case against the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission, paving the way for the prediction market to list bets related to elections.

In a Sept. 12 opinion filed in the US District Court for the District of Columbia, Judge Jia Cobb said that the CFTC “exceeded its statutory authority” by issuing an order halting Kalshi’s election markets. The commission argued that gambling on the US political races could disrupt markets and potentially threaten election integrity.

“Kalshi’s contracts do not involve unlawful activity or gaming,” said Judge Cobb. “They involve elections, which are neither. Although the Court acknowledges the CFTC’s concern that allowing the public to trade on the outcome of elections threatens the public interest, this Court has no occasion to consider that argument.”

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Congressional elections critical for crypto’s future in the US

The industry has amassed a historically large war chest, but little of it will be spent on the presidential clash between Trump and Harris.

Crypto entered the United States political arena in a big way in 2024. 

Fairshake, the industry’s super political action committee (PAC), has already raised $119 million, primarily from corporate crypto donors. 

Yet perhaps counterintuitively, little, if any, of this historically large sum will be spent on the presidential clash between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

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Elon Musk’s ‘DOGE’ gov meme sends political speculation soaring

Musk previously signaled he was ready and willing to serve if Donald Trump is elected president of the United States.

Elon Musk may be floating the idea of establishing himself as the head of a new government institution if former United States president Donald Trump claims the Oval Office again in the November 2024 election. 

True to form, Musk teased the idea in a meme on the X social media platform featuring a double-entendre referencing both cryptocurrency and politics.

Source: Elon Musk

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​​​​Trump’s platform favors crypto, but what about his inflationary policies?

Crypto single-issue voters back Trump in pursuit of deregulating the US crypto industry and probably boosting their wallets, but do they grasp the broader economic policies at stake?

While many United States crypto advocates have thrown in their lot with former President Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential elections, some of his policies run counter to the deflationary and decentralized principles on which the industry was founded.

Trump has secured strong support within the crypto community since making several clear statements that he would support the industry under his administration.

Overall, candidates’ policies toward cryptocurrencies have gained traction in the public discourse as the growing number of crypto holders has transformed into a potentially influential voting block.

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Super PAC spends $70K on crypto-focused Senate race as primary looms

In November, Massachusetts voters will likely have to choose between incumbent Elizabeth Warren and Republican John Deaton or Ian Cain for the US Senate.

On Sept. 3, voters in Massachusetts will decide which political party candidates will advance to the November general election, a race that could have significant repercussions for the crypto industry.

In the 2024 United States Senate election for Massachusetts, three candidates across party lines have expressed staunch pro- or anti-crypto views, attracting financial support from the industry and criticism from others. According to polls conducted in May, incumbent Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren was still highly favored above all potential Republican candidates, only one of whom will likely face off against her in November.

A lawyer who has penned many amicus briefs on behalf of crypto firms facing litigation from the US Securities and Exchange Commission, John Deaton has the support of many high-profile figures in the digital asset industry. This includes Ripple, which donated $1 million to a political action committee (PAC) supporting Deaton’s campaign, Gemini co-founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, Kraken co-founder Jesse Powell and Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson.

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AI vs. human leadership: Debate over plan to govern Cheyenne with AI

AI technology could drastically reduce inequalities and expand access to services in local and state governments, many believe.

Artificial intelligence could soon be governing a city in the United States — at least if one American mayoral candidate has his way.

Victor Miller recently threw his hat into the ring for mayor of Cheyenne, Wyoming, pledging to manage the 65,000-person city exclusively with a generative AI bot he built himself — called VIC, or Virtual Integrated Citizen.

He argued that it could quickly scan heaps of municipal documents, summarize events and render error-free judgments in near real-time. Its rulings would also be objective — without fear of favor or influence from lobbyists — which would be good for democracy.

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Kamala Harris campaign may focus on highlighting innovation over crypto

Many in the industry don’t expect the Vice President to mention digital assets at the DNC, but her views on technology and regulation could signal a shift from Biden-era policies.

On Aug. 21, reports broke that an aide to Kamala Harris’ campaign said the Democratic nominee would “support policies that ensure that emerging technologies and that sort of industry can continue to grow,” referring to the crypto industry. 

Though seemingly light on substantive policy, the reported move could signal a shift from the Harris campaign, which has previously stayed silent on digital assets. The aide who spoke to Bloomberg at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) was Brian Nelson, who left his position as the Department of the Treasury’s Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence to join the campaign. 

Though the comments did not come directly from Vice President Harris, many advocates took to social media to speculate whether the statement could suggest her campaign — 31 days old as of Aug. 21 — would be more proactive in addressing concerns related to crypto and blockchain before the November election. Though Republican nominee Donald Trump previously called Bitcoin (BTC) a “scam” and “based on thin air,” in 2024, he moved to personally claim he would defend BTC miners, denounce central bank digital currencies, and spoke at the Bitcoin 2024 conference.

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