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Ethereum Merge anniversary — 99% energy drop but centralization fears linger

Energy use is down, and staking is up, but technical concerns still mark the road ahead for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap.

One year after its historic transition to proof of stake, Ethereum has seen a massive reduction in energy use and a marked improvement in access to the network, however, a number of technical issues still mark the road ahead.

The Merge was executed on Sept. 15, 2022 — an event that saw the Ethereum mainnet merging with a separate proof-of-stake blockchain called the Beacon Chain.

The most noticeable improvement to Ethereum post-merge was the seismic shift from an energy-guzzling proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism to PoS, which saw the Ethereum network drastically reduce its total power consumption.

According to data from The Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance, the Ethereum network has seen its energy use drop more than 99.9% from the approximately 21 terawatt hours of electricity it used while running under PoW.

The Merge has reduced Ethereum's power consumption by more than 99%. Source: CCAF

Ethereum turns deflationary

Outside of using less power, The Merge also saw the Ethereum network become economically deflationary, meaning that the number of new Ether (ETH) issued to secure the network has been outpaced by the amount of ETH removed from supply forever.

According to data from the Ethereum data provider ultrasound.money, a little more than 300,000 ETH (worth $488 million at current prices) has been burned since The Merge. At current burn rates, the total supply of ETH is being reduced at a rate of 0.25% per year.

Change in ETH supply since the Merge. Source: ultrasound.money

While many proponents believed that the price of Ethereum would surge in response to this new deflationary pressure, the hopes of a dramatic increase in the price of ETH were buffeted by a series of macroeconomics headwinds such as the banking crisis and spiking inflation.

Notably, the growth of ETH paled in comparison to the growth in the price of Bitcoin (BTC) in the first quarter of this year, with the flagship crypto asset seeming to benefit from much of the traditional financial instability brought about by the banking crisis.

Price action aside, the central theme of the proof-of-stake upgrade was the introduction of stakers in place of miners to secure the network.

The subsequent Shapella upgrade in April 2023 drove ETH in huge droves towards staking. The top beneficiaries of this shift were the liquid staking providers such as Lido and Rocket Pool.

Liquid staking takes over

Since the Merge, liquid staking providers have come to dominate the Ethereum landscape, with more than $19.5 billion worth of ETH currently staked by way of liquid staking protocols, according to data from DeFiLlama.

At the time of publication, Lido is by far the largest staking provider, accounting for 72% of all staked ETH.

Lido currently accounts for 72% of all staking on Ethereum. Source: DeFiLlama

However while many Ethereum advocates including Labry CEO Lachlan Feeny, have praised the switch to staking for removing the barriers of expensive, sophisticated hardware for mining, one of the primary concerns with the rise of liquid staking has been the level of control granted to staking providers, in particular Lido Finance.

"Liquid staking is ultimately good for the network as it ensures that the governance of the network is not restricted only to the wealthy. However, it has also led to the rise of its own problems," Feeny told Cointelegraph. 

At least five Ethereum liquid staking providers working towards imposing a 22% limit rule, in a move to ensure the Ethereum network remains decentralized — though Lido voted not to take part.

Related: Ethereum’s active addresses second-highest in history: Analysts

Notably, Lido voted by a 99.81% majority not to self-limit back in June, leading Ethereum advocate Superphiz to declare that the the staking providers had “expressed an intention to control the majority of validators on the beacon chain.”

This move has led to widespread concerns over the potential centralization of validation on Ethereum.

"Lido presently controls 32.26% of all staked Ether on the network worth over $14 billion. In the long run I am confident that Ethereum is better off with liquid staking than without it, however, there are many challenges that still need to be overcome," Feeny concluded. 

Feeny also noted that the most pressing concern for Ethereum in the immediate future was the growing regulatory pressure against crypto and blockchain in the United States more broadly.

"Regulatory bodies, particularly in the U.S. appear to be hellbent at the moment on eliminating the U.S.-based blockchain industry," he said.

It would be devastating for Ethereum and the global blockchain community if it becomes too difficult for blockchain companies to operate in the US."

Outside of staking, client diversity also remains a central issue. On Sept. 5, Vitalik Buterin took to the stage at Korea Blockchain Week to discuss the six key problems that need addressing to solve the problem of centralization.

Currently, the majority of the 5,901 active Ethereum nodes are being run through centralized web providers like Amazon Web Services, which many experts claim leaves the Ethereum blockchain exposed to a centralized point of failure.

Distribution of Ethereum nodes from web service providers. Source: Ethernodes

In Buterin’s view, in order for Ethereum to remain sufficiently decentralized in the long-term it needs to be easier for everyday people to run nodes, which means drastically reducing costs and hardware requirements for node operators.

Buterin’s primary solution was the concept of statelessness, which removes the reliance on centralized servers by reducing data requirements for node operators to near-zero.

“Today, it takes hundreds of gigabytes of data to run a node. With stateless clients, you can run a node on basically zero.”

While this was Buterin’s most prominent concern for the centralization issue, he explained that these problems may not be solved for another 10 to 20 years.

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Galaxy Digital’s revenue soars with mining, fees at record levels

Selling the rumor? Biggest Ethereum Merge staker Lido DAO loses 40% in 30 days

LDO price faces downside risks from "sell-the-news" sentiment coupled with a bearish technical setup.

Lido DAO (LDO) has declined by more than 40% in the last 30 days with more room to fall in the coming days amid a potential sell-the-news event, i.e. the Merge.

Lido DAO Ether deposits surge 160% in 2022

Lido DAO is Ethereum's biggest staking service, having deposited over 4.14 million of the blockchain's native asset, Ether (ETH), into the Ethereum 2.0 smart contract on behalf of its users, according to the latest data.

ETH 2.0 total value staked by provider. Source: Glassnode

In comparison, Lido DAO's total staked amount was around 1.6 million ETH at the beginning of this year. The boom reflects a growing demand for Lido DAO services ahead of Ethereum's scheduled transition from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake via the Merge on Sep. 15.

LDO, a governance token in the Lido DAO ecosystem, has also undergone an unprecedented price rally in recent months, up more than 350% after bottoming out at $0.39 in June.

Still, the token's sharp correction in the past month raises the possibility of an extended downtrend now that the pre-Merge hype is nearing its end. In addition, a technical setup also alerts about a potential price decline ahe.

LDO hints at descending triangle reversal

The latest selling period in the Lido DAO market started after LDO topped at $3.10 on Aug. 13. This downtrend has painted a pattern that appears to be a descending triangle.

Descending triangles that form at the top  suggest bullish exhaustion. Theoretically, a descending triangle breakdown below the lower trendline—could crash the price to the level at length equal to the maximum triangle height.

Related: Will the Ethereum Merge crash or revive the crypto market? | Find out now on The Market Report

LDO now tests the triangle's lower trendline area (~$1.79-$1.82) as support. The token could drop toward $1.17 if it breaks below the support level while accompanying a rise in trading volumes. In other words, a 35% drop from current price levels.

LDO/USD daily price chart featuring descending triangle breakdown setup. Source: TradingView

Conversely, a rebound from the $1.79-182 support area could have LDO test the descending triangle's upper trendline at around $2.10 as resistance.

Also, a decisive breakout above the upper trendline would risk invalidating the bearish setup discussed above.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Galaxy Digital’s revenue soars with mining, fees at record levels

PoS gives Ethereum the economic structure to overtake Bitcoin, says DeFi researcher

Researcher Vivek Raman said that after the Merge, ETH inflation will be lower, security will be better and ETH will position itself as a digital bond.

As Ethereum shifts into proof-of-stake (PoS), a decentralized finance (DeFi) researcher has argued that the platform can overtake Bitcoin's (BTC) throne as the top dog in crypto. 

In a Twitter thread, researcher Vivek Raman highlighted that the upcoming Ethereum Merge could create a better economic structure for the smart contract platform. According to Raman, the shift into PoS lowers Ether (ETH) inflation, gives better security and positions the crypto as a digital bond.

Raman said that after the Merge, ETH inflation will drop from 4.3% to 0.22%. The researcher explained that this gives the ecosystem a 95% reduction in issuance, limiting the number of ETH that can be sold in a day. 

Additionally, the researcher also explained that the platform would be running on better security after the Merge. Citing a post by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, Raman highlighted that it would cost more to attack the network once it runs on PoS.

Apart from these, Raman also believes that the Ethereum Merge will allow ETH to complement Bitcoin's use cases as a store of value and a collateral asset. While BTC will function as digital gold, Raman argues that ETH will position itself as a digital bond and DeFi's main asset used as collateral.

Related: Ethereum Name Service registrations surge by 200% amid lower gas fees

Earlier in July, the average gas fees required to transact in the Ethereum network dropped to $1.57, a number that was only seen back in 2020. The drop in gas fees follows the downward trend of NFT sales, with daily NFT purchases dropping to one-year lows.

While the network’s gas fees are low, registrations for the Ethereum Name Service surged by 200%. This happened earlier in July when the ENS Dashboard showed a leap from 11,042 registrations to 29,727. The hype is also attributed to the second-largest ENS sale that happened on the same weekend as the surge in registrations.

Galaxy Digital’s revenue soars with mining, fees at record levels

Ethereum eyes rally against Bitcoin, with ETH price showing hidden bullish divergence

The second-largest cryptocurrency will see over 8% growth against its top rival should the technical outlook play out.

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has been declining against its top crypto rival, Bitcoin (BTC), since Sept. 3.

Ether dropped in value against Bitcoin by almost 25% after topping out in September at 0.07955 BTC. As the top altcoin declined, it left behind a trail of lower highs and lower lows, thus forming an ascending channel.

Later, ETH/BTC broke the channel to the upside on Saturday, raising anticipations about a strong extended recovery trend. But a selloff on Sunday and the ongoing session had traders test the channel’s resistance trendline as support.

ETH price charts suggest bullish divergence

The sentiment raised Ether’s possibility to reenter the falling range as shown in the chart below.

ETH/BTC daily price chart featuring bullish divergence. Source: TradingView

At the same time, the formation of higher highs in ETH/BTC’s daily commodity channel index (CCI) showed hidden divergence against the pair’s downtrend. For the uninitiated, CCI is a momentum oscillator that measures an instrument’s variations from its statistical mean to spot potential reversals.

“A hidden divergence is always an indicator for a possible trend reversal,” noted Stefan Krecher, a Germany-based market strategist, adding that ETH/BTC may rebound in the coming sessions also as the pair’s daily relative strength index (RSI) remains “not overbought.”

Krecher anticipated Ether to hit its monthly pivot point around 0.071586 BTC, almost over 8% of the current levels. The upside target also coincided with the 0.618 Fib line (0.071505 BTC) of the Fibonacci retracement graph in the chart above.

On the flip side, reentering the descending channel range risked sending ETH/BTC to its range support trendline near 0.058238 BTC.

Ether price against the dollar

The bullish ETH/BTC price outlook appeared as Ether held $4,000 as solid support while rebounding over 2.6% Monday. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price retraced almost 3.5% after setting up a similarly strong price floor near $60,000.

As a result, ETH/BTC merely looked weaker because Bitcoin rallied strongly against the United States dollar than Ether. Nevertheless, the Ethereum token’s prospects looked bullish, as earlier reported by Cointelegraph, with the aid of an ascending triangle setup shown below.

ETH/USD daily price chart featuring ascending triangle setup. Source: TradingView

Ether broke out of the pattern on the daily timeframe but with little trading volume, showing weakness in the price trend.

The cryptocurrency now tests the triangle’s upper trendline as support for bullish confirmation. Should a rebound follow suit, the price could eye new record highs above $4,384, with the triangle setup’s target sitting near $6,500.

ETH supply crunch 

Additionally, the supply of Ether tokens has been declining after the Ethereum network’s London hard fork. Namely, the Ethereum Improvement Proposal 1559, which went live with the update, started burning ETH that it previously paid to miners.

Data collected from WatchTheBurn shows that the Ethereum network has destroyed almost $2.25 billion worth of Ether tokens since the London hard fork’s launch.

Related: Altcoins breakout even as Bitcoin price falls to $60,000

Additionally, the Ethereum 2.0 deposit contract has attracted more than 8 million ETH, thereby removing them from circulation for at least a year.

Total value staked in Eth2 smart contract. Source: CryptoQuant

Moreover, regulated funds have increased their Ether holdings from 2.43 million ETH in November 2020 to 4.08 million ETH today, signifying increasing institutional demand.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Galaxy Digital’s revenue soars with mining, fees at record levels

Ethereum drops more than Bitcoin as China escalates crypto ban, ETH/BTC at 3-week low

The second-largest cryptocurrency falls 13.30% versus Bitcoin's 9.38% decline as China's move scares investors away.

The price of Ethereum's native token Ether (ETH) crept lower Friday after China extended its crackdown on cryptocurrencies by deeming their transactions as "illegal."

"Financial institutions and non-bank payment institutions cannot offer services to activities and operations related to virtual currencies," the People's Bank of China said in a statement on its website Friday, adding that online crypto services to Chinese residents offered by offshore exchanges are also "illegal financial activities."

Bids for the ETH/USD pair dropped by up to 13.30% to $2,735 in response. At its week-to-date (WTD) high, traders paid as much as $3,346 for a single Ether token but fell to as low as $2,651 after a tumult in China's heavily indebted property sector hit crypto markets.

ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView.com

As a result, Bitcoin, the world's leading cryptocurrency, also fell from its WTD high of $47,358 to as low as $2,651. Meanwhile, its prices fell by 9.38% on Friday—a massive intraday decline but lower than Ether's drop in the same period.

So it appears, traders decided to dump the digital assets that posted better long-term profits than Bitcoin. For instance, even after the latest declines, ETH/USD's year-to-date (YTD) gains came out to be above 280%. In contrast, Bitcoin's YTD profits were a little over 40%.

ETH/BTC falls to multi-week lows

Ether also underperformed directly against Bitcoin, with the ETH/BTC pair falling to 0.066 BTC for the first time in more than three weeks. At its yearly high, the pair traded at 0.079 BTC.

ETH/BTC daily price chart. Source: TradingView.com

Nonetheless, Ethereum charts suggest that Ether would grow stronger against Bitcoin in the coming sessions. That is mainly due to a Bull Flag formation in ETH/BTC market, a bullish continuation pattern that surfaces when prices consolidate lower/sideways (FLAG) following a strong uptrend (FLAGPOLE).

A Bull Flag typically sets its profit targets at length equal to the Flagpole's size if the price breaks above its channel's upper trendline. That said, ETH/BTC may undergo a bullish breakout to eye its previous local high of 0.0824 BTC.

Bullish fundamentals persist

Meanwhile, the Ethereum token also expects to surge overall because of its growth in the emerging decentralized finance (DeFi) sector. As Cointelegraph reported earlier, the total value locked (TVL) across the decentralized applications (dapp) industry reached $142 billion in August 2021, out of which 68% was concentrated on the Ethereum network.

Related: Ethereum forming a double top? ETH price loses 12.5% amid Evergrande contagion fears

That ensures more demand for Ether tokens for its ability to power smart contracts that back dapps. On the other hand, its active supply across the board anticipates declines as holders continue to lock their ETH holdings into Ethereum's proof-of-stake smart contract.

The total value staked into the Ethereum PoS smart contract has jumped from 11,616 ETH to 7.76 million ETH in nine months. Source: CryptoQuant

More supply expects to go out of circulation as the Ethereum network continues to burn a portion of its daily 13,000 ETH issuance following its Aug. 5 London Hard Fork upgrade. According to WatchTheBurn, the network has burned 358,616 ETH worth over $1 billion.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Galaxy Digital’s revenue soars with mining, fees at record levels

Ethereum balance on crypto exchanges hits new lows as ETH price retakes $3K

Meanwhile, the amount staked in Ethereum 2.0 smart contracts reached over 7.75 million ETH.

The total amount of Ether (ETH) held by all the crypto exchanges fell to its lowest levels, just as its prices rose back above $3,000 per token on Sept. 23.

Data collected by CryptoQuant, a blockchain analytics platform, showed that exchanges' net Ethereum token reserves dropped to 18.533 million ETH, compared to 23.92 million ETH a year ago. Meanwhile, the cost to purchase one Ether rose from almost $349 to as high as $3,078, showcasing an inverse correlation between ETH reserves on exchanges and prices. 

Ethereum all exchange reserves versus ETH/USD price performance. Source: CryptoQuant

Supply-demand factor

Lower exchange reserves point to traders' likelihood of holding the underlying cryptocurrency than trading it for other digital/fiat assets. Hence, if the demand for the token tends to rise, the lack of adequate supply helps to boost prices.  

So it appears, Ethereum's native token has started fitting the classic low supply-high demand bullish model. For instance, Dapp Radar reported that the total value locked (TVL) across the decentralized applications industry reached $142 billion, out of which 68% was concentrated on the Ethereum network as of August 2021.

On the other hand, more and more Ether tokens started going out of active supply after Ethereum announced its staking feature in Nov 2020, as the network geared up to become a full-fledged proof-of-stake blockchain by 2022.

In detail, the TVL inside the so-called Ethereum 2.0 smart contracts rose from 11,616 ETH in November 2020 to 7.75 million ETH today.

Total value staked in Ethereum 2.0 smart contracts. Source: TradingView.com

Additionally, a major network upgrade on August 5, 2021, dubbed London Hard Fork, added a feature that trimmed the pace at which Ether supply grows. The change, called EIP-1559, started splitting almost 13,000 new ETH issued every day for miner payment fees into three parts.

The network started burning one of these splits—the base fee users pay to miners to process transactions. As a result, more ETH tokens went out of supply. Data tracking portal WatchTheBurn.com noted that the EIP-1559 feature has contributed in the burning of 352,262 ETH to date, which is about $1.1 billion per the current exchange rates.

Lark Davis, an independent cryptocurrency market analyst, stated that the ongoing supply-demand dynamics in the Ethereum market would help shoot ETH prices towards $10,000.

The macro effect

Cryptocurrency markets this week performed in response to a looming housing crisis in Chinese property sector and its ripple effect across global economies.

In detail, the ETH/USD exchange rate dropped 20.78% in the first two days of this week, going to as low as $2,651, as investors limited exposure in riskier markets and scrapped for safest havens like the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds. Fears of contagion from the debt crisis at China Evergrande Group, which owes billions of dollars of bonds to global investors, sparked the sell-off.

ETH/USD daily price chart featuring correlation with BTC/USD and S&P 500. Source: TradingView.com

Ether bounced by as much as 18.82% after bottoming out locally at $2,651, including a 2.33% increase to $3,150 on Thursday. Nonetheless, the cryptocurrency's 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA) near $3,191 and 20-day EMA near $3,291 acted as strong resistance targets.

Related: Ethereum forming a double top? ETH price loses 12.5% amid Evergrande contagion fears

Blockchain data tracking service Santiment noted that the Ethereum token might keep bouncing as long as its short-term holders remain unprofitable. The portal cited the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio—calculated on a seven-day average—behind its bullish analogy.

ETH/USD MVRV 7D. Source: Sanbase

Excerpt from Santiment's Wednesday report:

"Short-term wise, MVRV 7D is suggesting a bounce, but the real rally is unlikely until we get closer to the next major speculative event - The transition to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) in 2022."

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Galaxy Digital’s revenue soars with mining, fees at record levels

No hard fork love for Ethereum as ETH price falls to a three-week low

Ether continues to trade lower under the shadow of Bitcoin in days leading up to its supply-crunching hard fork event.

Ether (ETH) prices slid in tandem on July 20, in tandem with Bitcoin's (BTC) drop below $30,000.

The ETH/USD exchange rate dropped 5.41% to an intraday low of $1,720 — or roughly $400 above its 2018 all-time high price, which should serve as an important psychological support level. 

The pair's bid had climbed to as high as $1,994 on the Coinbase exchange on Sunday. Meanwhile, its price action looked strikingly similar to Bitcoin's, the flagship cryptocurrency that topped at $32,450 on Sunday but later corrected to as low as $29,507 during the Tuesday session.

Bitcoin price trends continue to influence Ethereum's interim bias. Source: TradingView

The plunge also followed the Ethereum network's co-founder Anthony Di Iorio's exit from the cryptocurrency industry, partially because of personal safety concerns. Di Iorio, who's likely a large Ether holder, hinted to Bloomberg in an exclusive interview that he would liquidate his entire crypto-related holdings without specifically mentioning the Ethereum blockchain's native token.

"[Crypto is] really a small percentage of what the world needs," he said, adding that he wants "to diversify to not being a crypto guy, but being a guy tackling complex problems."

Hard fork FOMO snubbed?

The latest bout of sell-off surfaced despite Ethereum's upcoming network upgrade. Dubbed as London hard fork, the major code update is another step from turning Ethereum into a speedier and scalable proof-of-stake network from an energy-intensive proof-of-work one.

But the most talked-about feature in the upcoming hard fork is deflation. The upgrade expects to burn a portion of the base fee paid to miners, thereby making reducing the supply of Ether. Crypto education platform CoinMonk noted in March that the London hard fork upgrade could ideally burn 1 million ETH in 365 days, an equivalent to almost one percent of the network.

Grayscale, a New York-based digital asset investment firm, also wrote in a report in February that deflationary dynamics would prove extremely bullish for Ether prices. ETH/USD surged by almost 180% to its record high of $4,385 after the report came out.

The latest downturn in Ethereum markets has flashed serious concerns about London hard fork's ability to withhold bullish bias. For instance, analysts at TradingView said in their timeline updates that inflationary pressures from U.S. markets might have boosted ETH/USD's downside sentiment.

Ethereum has crashed by more than 60% from its record highs. Source: TradingView

In detail, the U.S. Labor Department last week released June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The latest data showed that inflation in the US rose 0.9% in June to 5.4%, the fastest just before the 2008 financial crisis. Bitcoin and Ether prices dropped after the report was released.

"Typically, cryptocurrency has been seen by digital asset investors as a hedge against inflation," TradingView analysts wrote, adding:

"However, in this case, the data itself matters less than what the Federal Reserve might do in response to that data. Traders began selling off cryptos like Ethereum and Bitcoin on fears that continuously rising inflation would prompt the Fed to take back its quantitative easing policies."

Bullish all the way

But not everyone is bearish. For instance, Konstantin Anissimov, executive director at CEX.IO exchange, anticipates Ether prices to reach $3,000 following the London hard fork.

"As things stand, the Federal Reserve has increased the size of its balance sheet from early 2020 to more than $8 trillion — a substantial rise," he said, adding that the reduced prices in the cryptocurrency markets are an opportunity for investors against beaten-down safe-havens in traditional markets.

"Market investors could accumulate the coins at a discount while trusting in their abilities to serve as the right hedge against the inherent inflation. Both coins with the renewed buy ups are likely to retest new price levels at $45,000, and $3,000 respectively."

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Galaxy Digital’s revenue soars with mining, fees at record levels

Ethereum price dragged down below $2K as US inflation hits highest level since 1991

The second-largest cryptocurrency sells off in line with Bitcoin as traders assess the latest U.S. inflation data.

Ether (ETH) perhaps had the most bullish outlook entering the July session, with a key technical update dubbed EIP-1559, promising to make its native token ETH scarcer through the network's first-ever burning mechanism.

But so far into the month, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap has vastly tailed its top rival Bitcoin. The positive correlation was visible on July 13, following the New York opening bell, when Ether plunged below $2,000 to hit its two-week low in sync with Bitcoin, which slipped slipping below $32,500.

ETH/USD vs. BTC/USD on Coinbase. Source: TradingView

As it happened, the ETH/USD exchange rate reached its intraday low of $1,961.10 following a 3.43% drop. The pair's modestly bearish move locked step with Bitcoin, which apprehensively fell as traders assessed the latest U.S. inflation data.

The U.S. consumer price index ticked up 0.9% in June to hit 5.4% year-over-year, marking its highest level since 1991. Traders sold off Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on the news, pointing to fears that a continuously rising inflation rate would prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to withdraw its quantitative easing policies.

Macro inflation vs. Ethereum deflation

In detail, the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's June meeting revealed officials in favor of at least two rate hikes by the end of 2023, providing the inflation rate runs too hot above their 2% target. The central bank has been maintaining interest rates below 0.25% since March 2020, which sapped investors' dollar demand and, in turn, had boosted demand for so-called safe-haven assets, including Bitcoin.

Ether, whose one-year correlation coefficient with Bitcoin stands at 0.64, according to Crypto Watch, surged all across 2020 and in the first quarter of 2021 on similar macroeconomic fundamentals.

The cryptocurrency, however, logged better gains than Bitcoin, owing to its role in a flurry of booming crypto sectors, including decentralized finance (DeFi), nonfungible tokens (NFT), and stablecoins.

Bitcoin's one-year correlation with Ethereum. Source: Crypto Watch

But the Ethereum network also suffered from technical setbacks in the form of a jammed bandwidth. An overloaded blockchain prompted miners—entities that process and add transactions to Ethereum's public ledger—to raise their fees. In some cases, users were forced to pay more gas fees than the amount they were transferring.

The problems appear to have come to a final resolution as Ethereum intends to switch its protocol from a miner-friendly but energy-intensive proof-of-work to a faster and cheaper proof-of-stake. In detail, the so-called London hard fork, which includes five improvement proposals, expects to counter those inefficiencies.

One of the improvement protocols, called EIP-1559, introduces a new fee structure to make Ether less inflationary.

It proposes to burn a portion of the fee collected in ETH, thus adding deflationary pressure on the cryptocurrency. In addition, the upgrade replaces miners with validators. In doing so, Ethereum requires each validator to lock at least 32 ETH to run its proof-of-stake network.

That also put a good portion of ETH supply out of circulation, making it as scarcer as Bitcoin. 

For Konstantin Anissimov, executive director at CEX.IO, rising macro inflation provides more bullish opportunities to Ether as much as it does to Bitcoin. He adds that he anticipates the ETH/USD exchange rate to hit $3,000 on an anti-inflation narrative.

"As things stand, the Federal Reserve has increased the size of its balance sheet from early 2020 to over $8 trillion—a substantial rise," he explained, adding:

"The reduced pricing is an avenue for market investors to accumulate the coins at a discount while trusting in their abilities to serve as the right hedge against the inherent inflation."

And so it appears, Ether accumulation is happening at a rapid pace. According to CryptoQuant, a South Korea-based blockchain analytics firm, the total ETH reserves across all the crypto exchanges have dropped by more than half in the wake of its Q2/2021 price correction from $4,384-top to $1,700-low.

ETH all exchange reserves are declining since September 2020. Source: CryptoQuant

Correlation risks

Ether's correlation with Bitcoin remains a bottleneck as ETH eyes further highs. Nevertheless, Josh Arnold, a financial analyst associated with Seeking Alpha, highlighted that Ether and Bitcoin are sometimes negatively correlated. A 0.64 correlation efficiency is not perfect.

Arnold instead focused on Ether's price chart structure, noting that the cryptocurrency formed a descending triangle pattern upon topping out in mid-May 2021. Descending triangles are typically continuation patterns that lead the prices in the direction of their previous trends after a small period of consolidation.

Descending triangle outlook based on Josh Arnold's trade setup. Source: TradingView

Arnold noted that Ether bulls need to hold Triangle support to maintain their upside bias or they would risk losing the market to bears. He explained:

"A descending triangle break to the downside would see Ethereum plumb new 2021 lows and try to find support again, but at much lower levels."

But given Ether's resilience against bears, Arnold anticipated that the cryptocurrency might end up rising higher. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Galaxy Digital’s revenue soars with mining, fees at record levels