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Hawkish Fed, stocks market rally, and crypto falling behind

Cointelegraph analyst and writer Marcel Pechman explains why the cryptocurrency market has been falling behind the stock market after the Fed’s hawkish stance.

Macro Markets, hosted by crypto analyst Marcel Pechman, airs every Friday on the Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel and explains complex concepts in layperson’s terms, focusing on the cause and effect of traditional financial events on day-to-day crypto activity.

Episode 13 of Cointelegraph’s Macro Markets begins by exploring why the United States Federal Reserve’s latest move has been pinned on the stock market rally. According to Cointelegraph analyst Marcel Pechman, part of the market was doubtful that the Fed would continue to sustain interest rates above 5% for the remainder of 2023 as the risks of an economic recession increase, but apparently, they were wrong.

Pechman states that the U.S. government signaled it is not afraid of unemployment and weaker corporate earnings as long as inflation is controlled. Therefore, the most probable reasons for the U.S. stock market rally were the risk of the Fed raising interest rates — which did not materialize — and the recent macroeconomic data, which came in at 4% inflation and 1.6% retail sales growth.

Meanwhile, according to Pechman, the crypto regulatory environment is definitively unfavorable, and the two biggest risks for the U.S. dollar have dissipated: the debt ceiling and out-of-control inflation. Thus, considering the weak real estate sector, investors seem correct to pick the stock market as their preferred instrument in the coming months.

The next part of the show discusses the European Central Bank (ECB) raising interest rates for the eighth successive time. For Pechman, it became clear that the ECB hasn’t been as hawkish as the U.S. Federal Reserve and is now playing catch-up on its 3.5% basic interest rate.

Pechman explains how credit default swaps work and shows the distortion between U.S. and European countries’ risk according to markets’ pricing. His conclusion? Perhaps the U.S. dollar will hold its dominant reserve status for longer than expected. However, the odds are not looking great for the euro, as the region has already entered a technical recession after two successive quarters of negative growth.

If you want exclusive and valuable content from leading crypto analysts and experts, subscribe to the Cointelegraph Markets & Research YouTube channel, and join us on Macro Markets every Friday.

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EU’s new crypto law: How MiCA can make Europe a digital asset hub

MiCA was recently signed into law and published in the EU’s official journal, starting the countdown for implementing the first-of-its-kind crypto legislation in 27 member states.

The European Union signed the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulations into law on May 31, making way for the landmark regulatory guidance on crypto assets and service providers to come into effect.

First drafted in 2020, the EU’s regulatory package will govern the issuance and scope of services related to the cryptocurrency market.

The European Parliament passed the MiCA regulations on April 20, and the bill was subsequently sent to the European Council for approval. On May 31, European Parliament President Roberta Metsola, and Swedish Rural Affairs Minister Peter Kullgren, signed the framework into law. Sweden currently holds the presidency of the Council of the EU.

MiCA was published in the Official Journal of the European Union (OJEU) on June 9, triggering the countdown for the law to come into effect. This means crypto businesses have set timelines to implement and comply with MiCA’s requirements. Stablecoin rules will apply from June 30, 2024, and rules for exchanges will take effect on Dec. 30, 2024.

MiCA defines a crypto asset as “a digital representation of value or rights which may be transferred and stored electronically, using distributed ledger technology or similar technology.” The legislation also offers guidance on what qualifies as “cryptocurrencies” and what makes certain digital assets “tokens.”

Additionally, MiCA establishes standards for crypto asset service providers (CASPs) and cryptocurrency asset issuers. Issuers of crypto assets are required to follow standards governing disclosure and openness, and offer complete and transparent information about the crypto assets they issue. CASPs must also adopt security measures and adhere to Anti-Money Laundering regulations.

The MiCA legislation establishes CASPs as separate legal entities. The service providers can obtain a license in any of the 27 EU member states and conduct business there. Service providers must be able to counteract market manipulation and abuse, and will be under the supervision of regulators like the European Banking Authority.

Stablecoin service providers will be required to provide a white paper that contains key details about the product and the key players involved in the business. The white paper must also include the terms of the public offer, the kind of blockchain verification mechanism it will use, the rights associated with the relevant crypto assets, the main risks involved for investors, and a summary to assist potential buyers in making an educated decision about their investment.

MiCA will not govern digital assets that qualify as transferable securities and behave like shares or equivalents. The EU legislation does not cover nonfungible tokens (NFTs) or crypto assets already recognized as financial instruments under current law.

Neither does MiCA regulate central bank-issued digital assets, be it the European Central Bank’s digital currency, national central banks’ digital assets or services linked to crypto assets provided by those institutions.

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David Schwed, head of blockchain cybersecurity firm Halborn, told Cointelegraph that MiCA is a pivotal development, demonstrating that a comprehensive framework can be established to provide clear direction to specific market segments. He added that even though MiCA excludes certain aspects of crypto, such as NFTs and decentralized finance, the regulations are a significant step forward.

“This regulation is a significant step forward for the crypto community. It presents a uniform framework for all EU member states, setting a precedent that I believe, and hope, the rest of the world will take note of and consider adopting,” Schwed said.

Europe takes the crypto lead

The passing of the MiCA regulations into law, nearly two years after they were first proposed, has added some regulatory clarity to cryptocurrency businesses in Europe. Although not perfect, crypto companies have definite guidelines to adhere to and access the market.

In contrast to the United States, with no set legislation and growing enforcement actions against many crypto exchanges, Europe could become a more dominant crypto hotspot.

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao tweeted about the recent introduction of MiCA and said there are exciting business opportunities for compliant crypto service providers in Europe.

Zhao’s comments came after the recent lawsuit filed by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission against Binance and its CEO, alleging securities law violations.

Kadan Stadelmann, chief technology officer at open-source blockchain technology firm Kodomo, told Cointelegraph that although MiCA’s effectiveness can be debated, it’s undeniable that MiCA sets the groundwork for crypto regulation worldwide:

“[Other countries] will probably choose a ‘wait and see’ approach before making their own regulations. Still, MiCA’s influence is clear; most nations will feel pressure to adopt some form of regulation to avoid getting left behind in a sector that has growing importance.”

Alex Shevchenko, CEO of layer-2 platform Aurora Labs, told Cointelegraph that implementing MiCA could “potentially influence policymakers and regulators in the U.S. to consider similar approaches, striking a balance between consumer protection and market development. As a result, this may lead to increased collaboration and harmonization efforts between jurisdictions.”

Indeed, members of the U.S. House Financial Services Committee are currently working on a draft bill that aims to establish more clear laws for certain types of cryptocurrencies and bring stablecoins under the regulatory purview of the Federal Reserve.

Crypto legislation around the globe

While MiCA is — for the time being — a one-of-a-kind regulatory framework that will govern certain crypto activities in 27 countries, several jurisdictions have been actively developing some form of crypto legislation in recent years. 

Joey Garcia, head of regulatory affairs at Xapo Bank, told Cointelegraph that the MiCA framework is often only compared to the regulatory landscape in the U.S., which, in his view, is far too narrow a comparison in the context of the global, cross-border and digital industry:

“There are many other jurisdictions. Singapore’s crypto regulations are extremely advanced and Hong Kong’s new framework took effect on June 1. Smaller jurisdictions like Gibraltar have been regulating this space since 2018, developing frameworks and guidelines around critical factors such as market integrity for crypto trading platforms, which is far more comprehensive than MiCA.”

Garcia said the rest of the world could learn a thing or two from MiCA, i.e., how to adapt classic financial services principles to nascent crypto technology. He adds that regulators outside the EU “will also need to learn and develop their understanding in not only implementing standards, but also subsequently being able to actively monitor and supervise those businesses.”

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MiCA’s approval comes as Hong Kong positions itself as a regional crypto hub, making way for independent legislation separate from China’s blanket ban approach.

Stadelmann added that Hong Kong definitely has the potential to become an even larger crypto hot spot than Europe. Before China banned crypto-related businesses in 2021, “Hong Kong was previously home to several growing crypto startups. With greater regulatory certainty in 2023, I think more crypto startups will start considering Hong Kong as a viable option,” he said.

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De-dollarization: Is it really happening?

In our latest Cointelegraph Report, we analyze the causes leading to the decline of the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency and its potential implications.

De-dollarization, the decline of the United States dollar as the world’s dominant reserved currency, is underway, and it’s gaining momentum. 

For over 100 years, the U.S. dollar has been the world reserve currency, which means it has been the dominant foreign currency held by central banks to carry out international transactions and settle international debt. 

However, in the last 20 years, the dollar’s dominance in countries’ reserves has decreased from 70% to under 60%, according to the International Monetary Fund.

This trend has been accelerating since last year, when the U.S. and its allies froze Russia’s dollar reserve as a response of the country’s invasion of Ukraine.

Since then, several countries have been looking for alternatives to the U.S. dollar. Some are discussing the creation of new currencies for international trade, while others are buying an increasing amount of gold to diversify their reserve.

Bitcoin (BTC), a nascent asset with many of the characteristics of gold, may also benefit from this trend in the long run. 

To know more about the causes and implications of the U.S. dollar decline and the assets that will benefit from it, watch the latest Cointelegraph Report on our YouTube channel and don’t forget to subscribe!

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ECB sums up digital euro prototyping exercise as it nears possible pilot launch

The European Central Bank exercise looked at a variety of use cases, most of which were quite satisfactory, as well as the use of self-custodied wallets.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has published a summary of the results of its digital euro central bank digital currency prototyping exercise. The exercise investigated offline use of a simulated digital euro and four other instances of interoperability with existing payments systems.

The project was part of the second phase of Eurosystem preparations for a potential pilot launch of a digital euro in the fall of this year. The exercise ran from July 2022 to February 2023.

Eurosystem developed a centralized settlement engine for the exercise called N€XT that used an unspent transaction output (UTXO) data model. Five prototype customer interfaces that represented differing use cases were provided by private companies. Self-custody wallets were also trialed.

The UXTO model preserved customer privacy using one-time UTXO addresses that did not reveal the wallets holding them. User experience was identical for custodied and non-custodied wallets.

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The offline transactions use case was more problematic. Seeking to gain “more in-depth knowledge of how the combination of hardware and software protocol could avoid double spending and ensure settlement finality and non-repudiation,” the report concluded:

“Questions remain as to whether the existing technology is capable of delivering, in the short to medium term (five to seven years), a production-ready and secure offline solution.”

Nonetheless, the exercise showed that “online and offline digital euro prototypes can be interoperable even if based on different data models and technical designs.”

Simultaneously with the exercise summary, the ECB published a “Market Research Outcome Report” on the digital euro. It also found that offline “solutions compliant with the Eurosystem requirements would be novel and might create uncertainty when an offline solution might be ready.”

Survey respondents favored near-field communication, Bluetooth interfaces or QR codes for offline transactions. The market research addressed 12 highly technical aspects of a potential digital euro rollout, such as proxy lookup and dedicated cash account management.

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Liechtenstein adapts blockchain laws to developing crypto landscape

Future regulation is intended to ensure uniform regulation for all European countries and covered participants.

The blockchain and crypto industry is constantly growing and changing around the world, and the Principality of Liechtenstein is no exception. 

The sixth smallest country in the world, located in the middle of Europe between Switzerland and Austria, has attracted the attention of the international and European crypto communities alike since the early days of the industry. 

In 2019, Liechtenstein became one of the first countries in the world to adopt specific legislation on crypto and blockchain, namely the Token and Trusted Technology Service Providers Act (also known as TVTG or the Liechtenstein Blockchain Act), which has been in force since the beginning of 2020 and established one of the world’s first regulated environments for token-related services.

Since 2020, the number of crypto service providers in Liechtenstein has been increasing, as companies find optimal conditions there to establish and develop their crypto business. The TVTG’s high level of regulatory certainty and direct communication with the local financial market regulator, the Financial Market Authority (FMA), have also contributed to this crypto-friendly environment.

What else makes Liechtenstein special and attractive for crypto service providers? Will the upcoming Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation be compatible with Liechtenstein’s Blockchain Act? Or is Liechtenstein’s government planning to tighten the law after the collapse of major crypto businesses like FTX, Celsius or Three Arrows Capital?

To get a betting understanding of crypto’s future in the country, Cointelegraph sat down with Thomas Dünser, director of Liechtenstein’s Office for Financial Market Innovation and Digitization. Dünser is a senior adviser to the prime minister of Liechtenstein, responsible for innovation and digitalization issues within the Ministry of Finance and was the project leader and co-author of the Blockchain Act.

The first comprehensive national token law

From 2016 to 2018, the blockchain and crypto industry faced a tremendous amount of uncertainty as governments around the world had only begun to develop regulatory concepts for digital assets. Amid this uncertainty, the announcement that the Liechtenstein government considered blockchain as a promising technology was already something of a sensation.

With the publication of the draft law, it also became clear how Liechtenstein would treat tokens. In particular, Liechtenstein was the first country in the world to regulate the token as a legal instrument with the Token Container Model (TCM) and to classify tokens differently based on how they function (utility token, security token or payment token).

According to Dünser, this clarification alone that not all tokens are to be considered financial instruments has triggered “enormous positive feedback” from the industry and created “greater legal certainty” in the application of financial market laws.

He explained that the definition of the token, the regulation of ownership and possession of the token, and the delegation and transfer rules have not only clarified basic legal issues but have also “laid the groundwork for the use of tokens by established financial institutions” like custody services, banks or exchanges. Moreover, Dünser emphasized the importance of the “semantics” of the Blockchain Law:

“It created a common language space, which was crucial for technical and regulatory discussions about crypto and blockchain between authorities and market participants.”

The ability to innovate is critical

The Blockchain Act was designed in 2016 and passed back in 2019. At that time, there were no decentralized finance applications or nonfungible tokens (NFTs) on a scale like now, which calls for faster legal development.

How is Liechtenstein dealing with this scale of innovation?

Neither the trend toward decentralization nor toward NFTs was unexpected, said Dünser. “With our national token law, we have created the basis for a broad range of tokenizations, even going beyond NFTs. We have deliberately tried to think far beyond the current use cases of blockchain in our legislation. So, I don’t expect that we will have to re-regulate here anytime soon.”

Liechtenstein regulators have also taken the trend of decentralization into account in the Blockchain Act. The TVTG is “open for innovation” and flexible, “principle- and role-based — as a counter-model to the otherwise usual rule- and business model-based regulation” and “technology-neutral.”

In the Blockchain Act, activities are subject to regulatory requirements if they pose risks to users, regardless of the business model in which they are provided. In doing so, service providers themselves have to consider how to mitigate the risks, whether with technology or human resources. Dünser said:

“Given the rapid pace of technology-driven innovation, the ability of the legal system to innovate is critical. Without it, we not only slow down innovation but also face considerable legal uncertainty. Neither of these can be in the interest of states.”

In Liechtenstein, regulators have, therefore, established an innovation framework with the aforementioned state innovation process and the Regulatory Laboratory at the FMA. In Dünser’s view, it has proven to be “very successful”; however, since the important financial market laws in the European Economic Area are defined at the European level, analogous structures would be necessary for the whole regional regulatory system.

Similarities between the TVTG and MiCA

MiCA is an important step toward a unified European regulatory system, and the TVTG served as a sort of model for MiCA. In particular, the MiCA draft adopts the Token Container Model of the TVTG, the licensing requirement for offering certain blockchain-related services, and also the information requirements for public offerings.

So, there shouldn’t be any major changes to the existing practice in Liechtenstein after MiCA enters into force, and both laws will be well-compatible, noted Dünser.

Crypto service providers newly regulated under MiCA will no longer need to be regulated under the Blockchain Act.

“Like Liechtenstein, the EU Commission sees the token economy — in addition to financial market applications — as a great opportunity for Europe.”

Liechtenstein’s experiences were, therefore, relevant for European lawmakers, and there were “lively discussions” between both sides that are reflected in many regulatory philosophical similarities between the TVTG and MiCA: the token container model, the role-based and, to some extent, principle-based regulation, and openness to innovation.

“However, we need to distinguish between the civil law and supervisory law parts,” Dünser noted, adding, “MiCA includes only the prudential components. Each member state has to clarify the civil law foundations itself. With the Blockchain Act, Liechtenstein already has a comprehensive and robust legal framework for all types of tokenization, from equity tokens, and other crypto assets to NFT and other tokenized rights.”

“We are prepared to act”

As to whether Liechtenstein will tighten rules for the crypto market after the FTX crash and other big collapses in 2022, Dünser said it would better avoid overregulation. Moreover, the Blockchain Act already regulates the custody of tokens and also prescribed legal separation in the event of bankruptcy.

Nevertheless, Dünser agreed that certain adjustments are necessary. “I see greater challenges in staking or borrowing and lending of customer tokens by crypto exchanges, which is not regulated in many jurisdictions.”

In the European Union, for example, regulation for credit institutions, which is set up for similar activities involving money, does not apply to crypto service providers. MiCA also does not cover this issue, at least not yet.

“In my view, this regulatory gap should be closed urgently. We are following and monitoring this development closely and are also prepared to act.”

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