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Investors balance risk as Bitcoin futures dip, reflecting uncertainty before the Federal Reserve's September meeting.

Although Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 21% since it retested the sub-$50,000 level on Aug. 5, its price has struggled to maintain above $62,000. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index has fully recovered and is now trading just 1% below its all-time high set on July 16. 

Bitcoin faces several conflicting trends, including derivatives metrics reflecting low buyer interest and macroeconomic indicators suggesting that traders are increasingly shifting away from cash positions. Interestingly, these stock market gains have coincided with a notable decline in US Treasury yields, which signals robust demand for these traditionally safe instruments. 

In essence, traders are now willing to accept lower returns on fixed-income assets, likely reflecting a growing confidence in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) strategy to curb inflation without sparking a recession. The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates on Sept. 18 after maintaining rates above 4% since December 2022.

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