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Fantom’s 5-week winning streak is in danger — Will FTM price lose 35%?

As per technical data, the FTM market has turned overbought after rallying 230% in five weeks, with the coin’s momentum slowing down compared to the price boom.

The price of Fantom (FTM) risks pulling back in February due to a growing divergence between its price and momentum in recent weeks.

FTM price rallies 230% after Cronje’s 2023 roadmap

FTM’s price has grown by 230% in the past five weeks, trading at $0.61 on Feb. 5. The rally came as a part of a broader crypto market recovery but outperformed most top-ranking crypto assets due to the hype created by Andre Cronje.

Cronje is the co-founder and architect of Fantom’s layer-1 blockchain. On Dec. 26, 2022, the developer released a letter discussing the goals and priorities for the Fantom ecosystem in 2023, including his intention to allow decentralized app developers to earn 15% of the network’s revenue.

The FTM price has seen five weeks of gains in a row since Cronje’s letter to the Fantom Foundation team.

FTM/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

The FTM/USD pair looks ready to close the week ending Feb. 5 with at least a 25% profit, helped by Cronje’s latest Twitter thread that gives 13 reasons why Fantom will be one of the best layer-1 blockchains in 2023. 

Fantom price technicals hint at correction ahead

Nevertheless, FTM’s ongoing rally risks exhaustion due to a growing bearish divergence between its rising price and falling momentum.

On the daily chart, FTM/USD has formed higher highs since mid-January, while its relative strength index (RSI) has made lower highs. As a rule of technical analysis, such a discrepancy means that the upside momentum is slowing.

FTM/USD daily price chart featuring bearish divergence. Source: TradingView

In addition, the RSI remains above 70, suggesting FTM is “overbought.“ It also hints about short-term bullish exhaustion and possible sideways or downward price action in the coming days.

Related: Crypto quick hits: 8 simple steps to multiple weekly winners

FTM risks crashing toward $0.42, or 35% from current price levels, given the level’s recent history as resistance. Moreover, a close below $0.42 would bring FTM’s 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA; the blue wave) at $0.38 into view as the next downside target.

FTM/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Overall, Fantom maintains its bullish bias as long as it remains above its 200-day EMA and the 50-day EMA (the red wave). 

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

CZ walks free, Caroline Ellison receives prison sentence, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Sept. 22 – 28

FTM price rebounds 50% as Fantom reveals 30 years runway (without having to sell its token)

The Fantom Foundation's attempt to dispel concerns about potential FTX exposure has been a success thus far for FTM price.

Fantom (FTM) continued its upward momentum on Nov. 30 amid reports that the Fantom Foundation generates consistent profits and has 30 years of runway without having to sell any FTM tokens. 

Fantom's FTM holdings up from 3% to 14%

FTM price gained nearly 13.5% to reach $0.24, its highest level in three weeks. The rally came as a part of a broader rebound trend that started when it bottomed out at around $0.17 on Nov. 22. This amounts to a 50% price rebound in the last eight days.

Interestingly, the rally picked up momentum after the Fantom Foundation's "Architect," Andre Cronje, released the firm's financial records on Nov. 28, revealing that it had $340 million worth of digital assets and had been earning over $10 million annually. Notably: 

Nov 2022 — Over 450,000,000 FTM, > $100,000,000 in stables, > $100,000,000 in crypto assets, $50,000,000 in non-crypto assets. Salary burn rate $7,000,000 / year. We have ~30 years left (without having to touch FTM)
FTM/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Certain crypto and blockchain projects have suffered due to their potential exposure to failing companies.

For instance, the collapse of the FTX crypto exchange triggered major price declines in Solana (SOL) and its associated project tokens, such as Serum (SRM). FTX and its sister firm Alameda Research were Solana ecosystem's major supporters.

Solana ecosystem performance in different timeframes. Source: Messari

In February 2021, Alameda also purchased $35 million worth of FTM tokens to become a validator on the Fantom blockchain. This exposure may have been a key factor behind FTM's underperformance in the early days of November, wherein its price declined by as much as 35%.

Cronje downplayed any connection with FTX/Alameda, explaining that being a validator does not make one part of the foundation.

"Unlike most of our competitors, the foundation owns a relatively small amount of FTM," he wrote, adding:

"Most comparable L1s own between 50% — 80% of their token supply. At launch, Fantom owned less than 3%. Today, we own more than 14%. We prefer buying our tokens; we don't 'sell' our tokens for 'partnerships.'

Cronje also revealed that Fantom passed on further cooperation with Alameda in January 2022. 

FTM whales and fishes accumulate

Fantom's on-chain data reveals that addresses holding more than 1 million FTM have been distributing the tokens during the FTX-led crypto market decline.

On the other hand, the supply of Fantom tokens held by addresses with a balance between 1 and 1 million FTM increased in November, suggesting strong accumulation among the network's richest (whales) and poorest (fishes) investors.

Fantom supply distribution among addresses with a 1-infinity FTM balance. Source: Santiment 

In other words, these investors anticipate FTM to undergo a strong price recovery in the future.

Related: Learn from FTX and stop investing in speculation

Technicals support the bullish outlook to a certain degree. FTM price now eyes a nearly 20% rally toward $0.30, which coincides with the token's prevailing descending channel's upper trendline and its 50-3D exponential moving average (50-3D EMA; the red wave), as shown below.

FTM/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

Conversely, testing $0.30 as resistance could have FTM eye a strong pullback toward the descending channel's lower trendline near $0.16, which has also served as support in July 2021, or a 30% price decline from today's levels.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

CZ walks free, Caroline Ellison receives prison sentence, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Sept. 22 – 28

This key trading pattern hints at the continuation of Fantom’s (FTM) 125% rebound

A bullish inverse head and shoulders chart pattern suggests that FTM price could see extended upside.

Fantom (FTM) looks poised to hit a new record high in the coming sessions after its 125% price rebound from $1.23 on Dec. 14, 2021, to $2.84 on Jan. 3, 2022 triggered a classic bullish reversal setup. 

Dubbed inverse head and shoulders (IH&S), the setup appears when an asset forms three troughs below a so-called neckline resistance, with the middle trough (the head) deeper than the left and right shoulder. 

The price of FTM has recently undergone a similar price trajectory, as shown in the chart below. As a result, FTM has a common resistance in the range defined by $2.55 to $2.74, which encompasses the length of the inverse head and shoulders pattern.

FTM/USD daily price chart featuring inverse head and shoulders pattern. Source: TradingView

Could Fantom rally by another 50%?

In a perfect world, an IH&S pattern would normally result in a bullish breakout once the price closes decisively above the neckline level. Ideally, the upside target be equal to the maximum distance between the head and the neckline, when measured from the breakout point.

On Monday, FTM almost completed its IH&S formation by reaching its neckline. As a result, the Fantom token's next move could be a bullish breakout above the $2.55 to $2.74 resistance range. In doing so, it would pursue a run-up toward $4.33, based on the setup presented in the chart below.

FTM/USD daily price chart featuring the IH&S's breakout setup. Source: TradingView

A sharp price pullback from the neckline range, accompanied by a spike in volume, would risk invalidating the IH&S setup. In that case, the next ideal support line may come near $2.08. This would be based on FTM's volume profile visible range (VPVR), a metric that displays trading activity over a specified period at specified price levels.

FTM/USD daily price chart featuring volume profile target. Source: TradingView

Are there risks of overvaluation?

Downside risks in the Fantom market also appeared in the form of its relative strength index (RSI), a metric that measures the magnitude of the asset's recent price changes to evaluate its overbought or oversold conditions.

Relative Strength Index in a nutshell. Source: Investopedia

In detail, FTM's daily RSI entered an overbought territory on Jan. 3 as its reading marginally jumped above 70. The technical indicator suggests FTM is overbought and that it should undergo a certain degree of correction to neutralize its market sentiment.

In layman's terms, an RSI reading above 70 is usually seen as a signal to sell. However, the sell-offs typically do not necessarily come right after RSI jumps into the overbought zone.

Related: 5 cryptocurrency projects that made waves in 2021

Based on multiple RSI corrections spotted between August and September 2021, the FTM price appears to extend its upside momentum even after the indicator crosses above 70. At its best, the daily RSI had reached almost 89 on Sep. 9, coinciding with the FTM price hitting the then-record high of $1.99.

FTM/USD daily price chart featuring RSI-led corrections. Source: TradingView

That somewhat leaves FTM with the possibility of pursuing its IH&S profit target of $4.33 despite its overvaluation risks. What could follow is a correction towards its 20-day exponential moving average (20-day EMA; the green wave in the chart above) around $2.09.

This would bring the price near to the VPVR support at $2.08, as discussed above.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

CZ walks free, Caroline Ellison receives prison sentence, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Sept. 22 – 28