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Bitcoin to $100K: What will milestone mean for derivatives markets?

Bitcoin analysts and traders have long dreamed of a $100,000 BTC price, but what would the achievement mean for derivatives markets? 

Bitcoin’s (BTC) potential climb to the $100,000 price level has captivated investors for years. While retail participants often celebrate such psychological milestones, the key impact should come from institutional adoption and advancements in the Bitcoin derivatives markets. 

Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest, BTC. Source: CoinGlass

Futures open interest on Bitcoin presently totals 626,520 BTC ($58 billion), a 15% increase in two months, signaling growing interest in derivatives. If Bitcoin reaches $100,000, this open interest would hit $62.5 billion, representing 3.1% of its $2 trillion market cap. This contrasts with the S&P 500, where $817 billion in futures open interest equals only 1.9% of its $43 trillion market cap.

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Mad Money’s Jim Cramer Prefers BTC to MSTR — Tells Investors: ‘Own Bitcoin. That’s a Winner’

3 reasons why Bitcoin price bottom could have been $67.3K 

Data suggests traders are ignoring the current Bitcoin price correction and betting for new highs after the US elections wrap up.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell 6.7% between Oct. 31 and Nov. 4, breaking below the $67,500 mark for the first time in eight days. This decline led to the liquidation of over $190 million in leveraged long positions and coincided with uncertainty surrounding the Nov. 5 US presidential elections.

Despite this short-term bearish momentum, three Bitcoin derivatives metrics show that the market is not panicking. These positive indicators include the long-to-short ratio of top traders on exchanges, aggregate BTC futures open interest, and stablecoin demand in China.

Exchanges top traders long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass

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Mad Money’s Jim Cramer Prefers BTC to MSTR — Tells Investors: ‘Own Bitcoin. That’s a Winner’

Bitcoin price peels back from its weekly high, but BTC derivatives markets look good 

Wider economic and stock market-related issues are impacting Bitcoin’s softening price, but futures market data shows traders still feel bullish.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price momentum has cooled since the Oct. 29 rally toward the all-time high, but the derivatives market continues to project traders’ optimism in a price recovery. 

The analysis of Bitcoin futures and options markets suggests that traders are maintaining positions without excessive leverage, which is crucial for a sustainable push toward new all-time highs. However, understanding the trigger for Bitcoin's price drop to below $69,000 on Nov. 1 remains essential.

Bitcoin 1-month options delta skew, put-call. Source: Laevitas.ch

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Mad Money’s Jim Cramer Prefers BTC to MSTR — Tells Investors: ‘Own Bitcoin. That’s a Winner’

Bitcoin open interest exceeds $40B amid brush near $70K

High open interest signals more leverage, which could induce another flush-out if positions are liquidated. 

Open interest on Bitcoin derivatives reached a record high on Oct. 21, as BTC came close to breaching the $70,000 price point. 

In a post on X on Oct. 21, CoinGlass reported that Open Interest (OI) on Bitcoin (BTC) futures contracts had reached a record high of $40.5 billion.

Open interest is the value or number of outstanding futures contracts that have yet to expire. It measures the amount of money invested in Bitcoin derivatives at any given time, with higher OI indicating potentially more leverage and volatility in the system.

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Mad Money’s Jim Cramer Prefers BTC to MSTR — Tells Investors: ‘Own Bitcoin. That’s a Winner’

Ripple Invests $25M in Bitnomial’s Platform to Build Regulated Derivatives Market for Digital Assets Like XRP

Ripple Invests M in Bitnomial’s Platform to Build Regulated Derivatives Market for Digital Assets Like XRPCrypto derivatives exchange Bitnomial is set to launch its U.S. perpetual futures trading platform, Botanical, backed by a $25 million round led by Ripple. The platform, integrating Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD, aims to challenge decentralized exchanges and offshore models. Bitnomial’s approach to bringing offshore trading models into the U.S. derivatives industry presents a significant market opportunity, […]

Mad Money’s Jim Cramer Prefers BTC to MSTR — Tells Investors: ‘Own Bitcoin. That’s a Winner’

Bitcoin open interest soars to 1-year high as BTC price rallies toward $68K

Demand for leverage in BTC futures jumped to $38 billion, but traders appear well-positioned enough to avoid surprise price swings.

Bitcoin (BTC) price gained 8% between Oct. 14 and 15, up 11.5% over the past 30 days. Bitcoin currently is significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which gained 3.8% during the same period. 

However, some traders are concerned that the sharp increase in demand for Bitcoin leverage could pose a potential risk.

The aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest — which measures the total number of BTC futures contracts — signals a rising appetite for leverage, causing some unease among investors. High open interest can increase the risk of cascading liquidations due to unexpected upward or downward price movements, leading traders to anticipate heightened volatility.

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Mad Money’s Jim Cramer Prefers BTC to MSTR — Tells Investors: ‘Own Bitcoin. That’s a Winner’

Bitcoin price fell 24%+ the last time this metric turned negative — Will it happen again? 

Bitcoin derivatives metrics shifted as BTC price fell under $59,000 today. Are lower prices incoming?

Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 5.3% between Oct. 9 and Oct. 10, reaching a three-week low of $58,900. The market correction began after the United States reported higher-than-anticipated consumer inflation data, suggesting traders are concerned that the Federal Reserve has less incentive to continue cutting interest rates in the near future.

The reaction from Bitcoin price reflects investors’ view that there is an increased chance of a recession. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.2% increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September compared to the prior month, which triggered concerns of 'stagflation' among investors, according to Yahoo News. In this scenario, prices continue to rise despite economic stagnation, a situation that runs contrary to the central bank's objectives of stimulating growth while controlling inflation.

Meanwhile, US jobless claims rose to a 14-month high, according to data released on Oct. 10. Initial filings for unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased, reaching a seasonally adjusted 258,000 by Oct. 5. Although part of the rise can be attributed to a labor strike at Boeing, the broader negative impact on the economy remains a significant concern for policymakers, as reported by CNBC.

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Mad Money’s Jim Cramer Prefers BTC to MSTR — Tells Investors: ‘Own Bitcoin. That’s a Winner’

Bitwise Plans ETF Merger, Aims to Launch Momentum-Based Bitcoin and Ether Fund 

Bitwise Plans ETF Merger, Aims to Launch Momentum-Based Bitcoin and Ether Fund Asset manager Bitwise has filed a proposal with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to merge three bitcoin and ethereum futures exchange-traded funds (ETFs) into a single fund. This new fund will utilize a momentum-based strategy, targeting both bitcoin and ether futures. Bitwise to Combine Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs According to the SEC filing, […]

Mad Money’s Jim Cramer Prefers BTC to MSTR — Tells Investors: ‘Own Bitcoin. That’s a Winner’

Does Bitcoin’s negative funding rate signal that bears are in total control?

Bitcoin’s perpetual funding rate shows lack of confidence from bulls, but options markets are displaying resilience.

Bitcoin (BTC) price experienced a 2.2% correction on Sept. 11 following the release of US consumer inflation data, but it managed to reclaim the $56,500 level within a few hours. The movement closely tracked the S&P 500 index, which saw a 1.6% decline on Sept. 11 as US Consumer Price Index growth hit its lowest level in over three years.

Bitcoin traders are skeptical that the $58,000 resistance will be breached, given the increased demand for bearish positions using BTC futures contracts.

Bitcoin/USD (blue) vs. S&P 500 futures (magenta). Source: TradingView

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Mad Money’s Jim Cramer Prefers BTC to MSTR — Tells Investors: ‘Own Bitcoin. That’s a Winner’

SEC Warns of Bitcoin and Ether ETF Risks — Labels BTC, ETH Highly Speculative Investments

SEC Warns of Bitcoin and Ether ETF Risks — Labels BTC, ETH Highly Speculative InvestmentsThe U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued a bulletin warning about the risks of bitcoin and ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), highlighting their speculative nature. The regulator urged investors to consider potential issues like price volatility, fraud, and lack of regulatory oversight. SEC Warns Investors About Risks in Bitcoin and Ether ETPs The U.S. […]

Mad Money’s Jim Cramer Prefers BTC to MSTR — Tells Investors: ‘Own Bitcoin. That’s a Winner’