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Bitcoin is crashing, but options markets are calling for $111K BTC price by February

$2.9 billion in Bitcoin liquidations happened in December, but the flush out is preparing BTC for new highs.

Bitcoin (BTC) price experienced two episodes of $1 billion or higher futures market liquidations since Dec. 5, albeit its price began and ended the period near $97,000. The latest event moved Bitcoin from $101,430 on Dec. 8 to $94,200 on Dec. 9, a crash that wiped out $2.9 billion in leveraged positions.

Despite the short-term negative impact on sentiment, the Bitcoin derivatives market is presently in a much healthier state, which is precisely what’s needed for a surprise rally to a new all-time high. Traders are less likely to buy during signs of overheated markets, such as an excessive perpetual contract funding rate.

Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest, BTC. Source: CoinGlass

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Despite Bitcoin’s surge, mining stocks struggle to match gains in 2024

Future Bitcoin price dips to $90K ‘routine profit taking’ — Why BTC traders keep buying

Traders bought up Bitcoin’s dips to $90,000, a sign that investors are confident in BTC prices above $100,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced unprecedented intraday volatility on Dec. 5, with a dramatic $12,396 price swing that saw the cryptocurrency reach a remarkable low of $91,463. Analysts estimate that over $4 billion worth of leveraged BTC futures were liquidated during this period, surpassing the previous peak recorded during FTX's bankruptcy in November 2022.

What truly stood out during the Dec. 5 flash crash was the $5,160 rebound in less than 15 minutes after hitting the low, as buyers aggressively defended the $96,500 support level. Moreover, Bitcoin derivatives metrics maintained their prior bullishness, signaling that traders remain confident in the ongoing upward momentum.

To gauge market sentiment, analyzing Bitcoin’s margin markets is crucial. Unlike derivatives contracts, which require both buyers and sellers, margin markets enable traders to borrow stablecoins to purchase spot Bitcoin or borrow BTC to initiate short positions, wagering on a price decline.

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Despite Bitcoin’s surge, mining stocks struggle to match gains in 2024

Bitcoin price weakens, but BTC derivatives remain healthy

Bitcoin derivatives reflect traders' confidence in the market and suggest the current price action is just a consolidation phase.

Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to rally above $98,000 from Nov. 25 to Dec. 2, frustrating investors despite achieving a 38% monthly gain. Market participants worry that prolonged consolidation below the $100,000 psychological barrier could embolden bearish strategies to suppress BTC's price.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

Derivatives markets suggest resilience, with traders paying a 17% annualized premium for leveraged positions compared to the BTC spot price. While lower than the 40% levels typically observed during strong bull runs, the current premium reflects healthy bullish demand and does not indicate excessive optimism.

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Despite Bitcoin’s surge, mining stocks struggle to match gains in 2024

Bitcoin to $100K: What will milestone mean for derivatives markets?

Bitcoin analysts and traders have long dreamed of a $100,000 BTC price, but what would the achievement mean for derivatives markets? 

Bitcoin’s (BTC) potential climb to the $100,000 price level has captivated investors for years. While retail participants often celebrate such psychological milestones, the key impact should come from institutional adoption and advancements in the Bitcoin derivatives markets. 

Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest, BTC. Source: CoinGlass

Futures open interest on Bitcoin presently totals 626,520 BTC ($58 billion), a 15% increase in two months, signaling growing interest in derivatives. If Bitcoin reaches $100,000, this open interest would hit $62.5 billion, representing 3.1% of its $2 trillion market cap. This contrasts with the S&P 500, where $817 billion in futures open interest equals only 1.9% of its $43 trillion market cap.

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3 reasons why Bitcoin price bottom could have been $67.3K 

Data suggests traders are ignoring the current Bitcoin price correction and betting for new highs after the US elections wrap up.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell 6.7% between Oct. 31 and Nov. 4, breaking below the $67,500 mark for the first time in eight days. This decline led to the liquidation of over $190 million in leveraged long positions and coincided with uncertainty surrounding the Nov. 5 US presidential elections.

Despite this short-term bearish momentum, three Bitcoin derivatives metrics show that the market is not panicking. These positive indicators include the long-to-short ratio of top traders on exchanges, aggregate BTC futures open interest, and stablecoin demand in China.

Exchanges top traders long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass

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Despite Bitcoin’s surge, mining stocks struggle to match gains in 2024

Bitcoin price peels back from its weekly high, but BTC derivatives markets look good 

Wider economic and stock market-related issues are impacting Bitcoin’s softening price, but futures market data shows traders still feel bullish.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price momentum has cooled since the Oct. 29 rally toward the all-time high, but the derivatives market continues to project traders’ optimism in a price recovery. 

The analysis of Bitcoin futures and options markets suggests that traders are maintaining positions without excessive leverage, which is crucial for a sustainable push toward new all-time highs. However, understanding the trigger for Bitcoin's price drop to below $69,000 on Nov. 1 remains essential.

Bitcoin 1-month options delta skew, put-call. Source: Laevitas.ch

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Despite Bitcoin’s surge, mining stocks struggle to match gains in 2024

Bitcoin open interest exceeds $40B amid brush near $70K

High open interest signals more leverage, which could induce another flush-out if positions are liquidated. 

Open interest on Bitcoin derivatives reached a record high on Oct. 21, as BTC came close to breaching the $70,000 price point. 

In a post on X on Oct. 21, CoinGlass reported that Open Interest (OI) on Bitcoin (BTC) futures contracts had reached a record high of $40.5 billion.

Open interest is the value or number of outstanding futures contracts that have yet to expire. It measures the amount of money invested in Bitcoin derivatives at any given time, with higher OI indicating potentially more leverage and volatility in the system.

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Ripple Invests $25M in Bitnomial’s Platform to Build Regulated Derivatives Market for Digital Assets Like XRP

Ripple Invests M in Bitnomial’s Platform to Build Regulated Derivatives Market for Digital Assets Like XRPCrypto derivatives exchange Bitnomial is set to launch its U.S. perpetual futures trading platform, Botanical, backed by a $25 million round led by Ripple. The platform, integrating Ripple’s stablecoin RLUSD, aims to challenge decentralized exchanges and offshore models. Bitnomial’s approach to bringing offshore trading models into the U.S. derivatives industry presents a significant market opportunity, […]

Despite Bitcoin’s surge, mining stocks struggle to match gains in 2024

Bitcoin open interest soars to 1-year high as BTC price rallies toward $68K

Demand for leverage in BTC futures jumped to $38 billion, but traders appear well-positioned enough to avoid surprise price swings.

Bitcoin (BTC) price gained 8% between Oct. 14 and 15, up 11.5% over the past 30 days. Bitcoin currently is significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which gained 3.8% during the same period. 

However, some traders are concerned that the sharp increase in demand for Bitcoin leverage could pose a potential risk.

The aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest — which measures the total number of BTC futures contracts — signals a rising appetite for leverage, causing some unease among investors. High open interest can increase the risk of cascading liquidations due to unexpected upward or downward price movements, leading traders to anticipate heightened volatility.

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Bitcoin price fell 24%+ the last time this metric turned negative — Will it happen again? 

Bitcoin derivatives metrics shifted as BTC price fell under $59,000 today. Are lower prices incoming?

Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 5.3% between Oct. 9 and Oct. 10, reaching a three-week low of $58,900. The market correction began after the United States reported higher-than-anticipated consumer inflation data, suggesting traders are concerned that the Federal Reserve has less incentive to continue cutting interest rates in the near future.

The reaction from Bitcoin price reflects investors’ view that there is an increased chance of a recession. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.2% increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September compared to the prior month, which triggered concerns of 'stagflation' among investors, according to Yahoo News. In this scenario, prices continue to rise despite economic stagnation, a situation that runs contrary to the central bank's objectives of stimulating growth while controlling inflation.

Meanwhile, US jobless claims rose to a 14-month high, according to data released on Oct. 10. Initial filings for unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased, reaching a seasonally adjusted 258,000 by Oct. 5. Although part of the rise can be attributed to a labor strike at Boeing, the broader negative impact on the economy remains a significant concern for policymakers, as reported by CNBC.

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Despite Bitcoin’s surge, mining stocks struggle to match gains in 2024