Improving Bitcoin price metrics highlight bears’ dwindling confidence in sub-$95K BTC

January 1, 2025 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s open interest has dropped to a two-month low, indicating limited downside risk for BTC price.

Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to maintain prices above $95,000 since Dec. 28, but demand for leveraged positions has been on the decline. During this period, bulls faced $470 million in liquidations, while bears showed reduced appetite, especially as Bitcoin tested levels below $92,000.

Measured by its open interest—the total number of contracts across all Bitcoin futures markets—the positions have dropped to their lowest level in two months. While bears have gained the upper hand in the short term, their diminished appetite suggests limited downside potential for Bitcoin's price.

Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest, BTC. Source: CoinGlass

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Will Solana price hold $180 after 30% drop in weekly DApp volumes?

December 27, 2024 Coin Telegraph

Will Solana price hold 0 after 30% drop in weekly DApp volumes?

Coin Telegraph

Declining network activity and interest in memecoins put a dent in Solana price, but derivatives data suggest limited downside.

Solana’s native token SOL (SOL) failed to sustain levels above $200 after multiple rejections between Dec. 25 and Dec. 26. This movement aligned with the broader cryptocurrency market, which saw a 3.5% decline over two days ending Dec. 27. However, SOL underperformed with a 5.1% correction, raising concerns among traders about potential further price declines.

One key source of concern was Solana’s onchain network volumes, which dropped by 30% over seven days.

Blockchains ranked by 7-day DApps volumes, USD. Source: DefiLlama

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Bitcoin bulls are back: BTC derivatives data hints at rally to $105K

December 25, 2024 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin futures data suggests bulls are ready to push BTC price back above $100,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 6.5% since its $92,458 low on Dec. 23 but it failed to surpass the $98,000 resistance level. Traders showed renewed confidence after a steep 14.5% correction that followed the $108,275 all-time high on Dec. 17.

Bitcoin derivatives maintained a neutral-to-bullish stance, suggesting that the sharp price volatility did not significantly impact market sentiment. This positioning supports the likelihood of a sustainable rally above $105,000.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

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Bitcoin is crashing, but options markets are calling for $111K BTC price by February

December 10, 2024 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

$2.9 billion in Bitcoin liquidations happened in December, but the flush out is preparing BTC for new highs.

Bitcoin (BTC) price experienced two episodes of $1 billion or higher futures market liquidations since Dec. 5, albeit its price began and ended the period near $97,000. The latest event moved Bitcoin from $101,430 on Dec. 8 to $94,200 on Dec. 9, a crash that wiped out $2.9 billion in leveraged positions.

Despite the short-term negative impact on sentiment, the Bitcoin derivatives market is presently in a much healthier state, which is precisely what’s needed for a surprise rally to a new all-time high. Traders are less likely to buy during signs of overheated markets, such as an excessive perpetual contract funding rate.

Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest, BTC. Source: CoinGlass

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Future Bitcoin price dips to $90K ‘routine profit taking’ — Why BTC traders keep buying

December 7, 2024 Coin Telegraph

Future Bitcoin price dips to K ‘routine profit taking’ — Why BTC traders keep buying

ATH

Traders bought up Bitcoin’s dips to $90,000, a sign that investors are confident in BTC prices above $100,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced unprecedented intraday volatility on Dec. 5, with a dramatic $12,396 price swing that saw the cryptocurrency reach a remarkable low of $91,463. Analysts estimate that over $4 billion worth of leveraged BTC futures were liquidated during this period, surpassing the previous peak recorded during FTX's bankruptcy in November 2022.

What truly stood out during the Dec. 5 flash crash was the $5,160 rebound in less than 15 minutes after hitting the low, as buyers aggressively defended the $96,500 support level. Moreover, Bitcoin derivatives metrics maintained their prior bullishness, signaling that traders remain confident in the ongoing upward momentum.

To gauge market sentiment, analyzing Bitcoin’s margin markets is crucial. Unlike derivatives contracts, which require both buyers and sellers, margin markets enable traders to borrow stablecoins to purchase spot Bitcoin or borrow BTC to initiate short positions, wagering on a price decline.

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Bitcoin price weakens, but BTC derivatives remain healthy

December 3, 2024 Coin Telegraph

BTC

Bitcoin derivatives reflect traders' confidence in the market and suggest the current price action is just a consolidation phase.

Bitcoin (BTC) has struggled to rally above $98,000 from Nov. 25 to Dec. 2, frustrating investors despite achieving a 38% monthly gain. Market participants worry that prolonged consolidation below the $100,000 psychological barrier could embolden bearish strategies to suppress BTC's price.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

Derivatives markets suggest resilience, with traders paying a 17% annualized premium for leveraged positions compared to the BTC spot price. While lower than the 40% levels typically observed during strong bull runs, the current premium reflects healthy bullish demand and does not indicate excessive optimism.

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Bitcoin to $100K: What will milestone mean for derivatives markets?

November 19, 2024 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin to 0K: What will milestone mean for derivatives markets?

Adoption

Bitcoin analysts and traders have long dreamed of a $100,000 BTC price, but what would the achievement mean for derivatives markets?

Bitcoin’s (BTC) potential climb to the $100,000 price level has captivated investors for years. While retail participants often celebrate such psychological milestones, the key impact should come from institutional adoption and advancements in the Bitcoin derivatives markets.

Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest, BTC. Source: CoinGlass

Futures open interest on Bitcoin presently totals 626,520 BTC ($58 billion), a 15% increase in two months, signaling growing interest in derivatives. If Bitcoin reaches $100,000, this open interest would hit $62.5 billion, representing 3.1% of its $2 trillion market cap. This contrasts with the S&P 500, where $817 billion in futures open interest equals only 1.9% of its $43 trillion market cap.

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3 reasons why Bitcoin price bottom could have been $67.3K

November 4, 2024 Coin Telegraph

3 reasons why Bitcoin price bottom could have been .3K

Bullish

Data suggests traders are ignoring the current Bitcoin price correction and betting for new highs after the US elections wrap up.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell 6.7% between Oct. 31 and Nov. 4, breaking below the $67,500 mark for the first time in eight days. This decline led to the liquidation of over $190 million in leveraged long positions and coincided with uncertainty surrounding the Nov. 5 US presidential elections.

Despite this short-term bearish momentum, three Bitcoin derivatives metrics show that the market is not panicking. These positive indicators include the long-to-short ratio of top traders on exchanges, aggregate BTC futures open interest, and stablecoin demand in China.

Exchanges top traders long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass

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Bitcoin price peels back from its weekly high, but BTC derivatives markets look good

November 2, 2024 Coin Telegraph

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Wider economic and stock market-related issues are impacting Bitcoin’s softening price, but futures market data shows traders still feel bullish.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price momentum has cooled since the Oct. 29 rally toward the all-time high, but the derivatives market continues to project traders’ optimism in a price recovery.

The analysis of Bitcoin futures and options markets suggests that traders are maintaining positions without excessive leverage, which is crucial for a sustainable push toward new all-time highs. However, understanding the trigger for Bitcoin's price drop to below $69,000 on Nov. 1 remains essential.

Bitcoin 1-month options delta skew, put-call. Source: Laevitas.ch

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Bitcoin open interest exceeds $40B amid brush near $70K

October 21, 2024 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

High open interest signals more leverage, which could induce another flush-out if positions are liquidated.

Open interest on Bitcoin derivatives reached a record high on Oct. 21, as BTC came close to breaching the $70,000 price point.

In a post on X on Oct. 21, CoinGlass reported that Open Interest (OI) on Bitcoin (BTC) futures contracts had reached a record high of $40.5 billion.

Open interest is the value or number of outstanding futures contracts that have yet to expire. It measures the amount of money invested in Bitcoin derivatives at any given time, with higher OI indicating potentially more leverage and volatility in the system.

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