Gambling tokens hit the jackpot as COVID-19 lockdowns drag on

Blockchain gambling and gaming projects have seen their token prices triple as the COVID-19 lockdowns alter the nature of entertainment.

Global developments over the past year have reshaped all aspects of daily life for most people and initiated some structural changes in how society operates. Lockdowns and travel restrictions have led to the rise of remote working and altered the way people make use of their free time.

The coronavirus pandemic essentially shut down travel and this has had a direct impact on most entertainment hubs around the world. Gambling destinations like Las Vegas and Macau were pulverized by the pandemic and most of the world's most popular sporting events were halted or took place without spectators being present.

The charts show that crypto projects focused on gaming and gambling have seen a surge as of late and three notable projects are WINk (WIN), FunFair (FUN) and Decentral Games (DG).

WIN/USDT

WINk is a gaming platform that allows users to play, stake assets and socialize across multiple blockchain ecosystems that utilize the WIN token as their native digital asset.

The platform is built on Tron (TRX) blockchain and looks to offer a decentralized gaming experience that allows developers to create dApps.

*WIN/USDT 4-hour chart. Source:* *TradingView*

Data from Cointelegraph Markets and TradingView shows that the price of WIN has gained 720% in 2021, increasing from a low of $0.000058 on Jan. 1 to a high of $0.000477 on March 20 thanks to a record $338 million in 24-hour trading volume.

VORTECS™ data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro began to detect a bullish outlook for WIN on March 18, prior to the recent price rise.

The VORTECS™ score, exclusive to Cointelegraph, is an algorithmic comparison of historic and current market conditions derived from a combination of data points including market sentiment, trading volume, recent price movements and Twitter activity.

*VORTECS™ Score (green) vs. WIN price. Source:* *Cointelegraph Markets Pro*

As seen in the chart above, the VORTECS™ for WIN first turned green on March 16 and reached a high of 69 before decreasing later in the day while WIN price was flat. It registered green several times over the next couple of days and reached a high of 65 on March 18, roughly five hours before the price began to rally b 90%.

FUN/USDT

FunFair is an Ethereum (ETH) based blockchain project that was launched in 2017 with the goal of creating a gaming ecosystem that users from around the globe could participate in.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets and TradingView shows that FUN got 2021 off to a hot start with its price surging more than 1,100% over the first two months of the year from a low of $0.0048 on Jan. 1 to a high of $0.059 on Feb. 3 as trading volume surged from an average of $2 million to $93 million.

*FUN/USDT 4-hour chart. Source:* *TradingView*

Excitement for the protocol has steadily increased throughout 2021 as evidenced by increases in trading volume a rising price.

Community engagement increased during the week leading to the high on Feb. 3 thanks to a character naming contest which awarded 8,000 FUN to the user who came up with the best name for the newest character in the FunFair ecosystem.

More recently, trading activity for FUN saw a noticeable increase beginning March 11 when the project announced a showcase for the platform’s first L2 Labs multiplayer game on xDAI (STAKE) called “Payloads!” The announcement was followed by a 60% price rally over the next seven days.

DG/USD

Decentral Games is a newer arrival to the blockchain-based gaming scene which launched in December 2020.

According to the project’s website, Decentral Games is the first-ever metaverse casino that is community-owned and allows players to earn DG for playing games, liquidity providers to earn for providing liquidity, and DG holders to earn by voting on treasury management, economic policy, and new game development.

Since trading from a low of $13.87 on Jan. 2, the price of DG has surged more than 4,300% to a new all-time high of $621 on March 22 as trading activity following several major developments including the following announcement detailing a partnership with Atari:

Decentral Games has officially partnered with @atari to deliver a fully-custom Atari casino in @VegasCityDCL @decentraland!

The launch party will feature a live performance from @DillonFrancis!

Read the full announcement here: https://t.co/1cPIL4L8GD pic.twitter.com/8ixrdLty8W
— Decentral Games - Be The House (@decentralgames) March 8, 2021

With interest in virtual land and non-fungible tokens (NFTs) exploding on a global scale over the past two months, DG looks well-positioned to capitalize on the integration of gambling protocols into the decentralized landscape.

The project's attempt to encourage community involvement through governance features helps to set it apart from other gambling-oriented protocols and could lead to further adoption in the future.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

How to Predict the Future

Insight_Predict, henceforth referred to as IP, is a seasoned options trader who became active on the PredictIt and BetMoose betting platforms years ago, recently moving into the Polymarket crypto prediction platform. They now have over half of their net worth on these prediction markets.

Turns out yesterday was a good day to take profits on my calls. Here's a sampling of the profits I booked yesterday. The biggest profits were on Exxon-Mobil calls. I am basically treading water on BP calls, but wanted to lighten my load and reduce risk. https://t.co/wdVqx7pNM5 pic.twitter.com/WUnt2d8DHV

— Insight Prediction (@Insight_Predict) February 17, 2021

IP explained the logic behind the move towards crypto sites, saying, “I think peer-to-peer betting markets are a great innovation relative to the old-fashioned ‘betting against the house’ [system].”

Centralized platforms are notorious for issuing low betting limits and often banning or limiting successful users to ensure profits.

However, sites like Polymarket don’t have risk management features like setting a stop loss. This particular trader embraces these risks but backs up bets with extensive research.

“I place extremely high-risk wagers both when I’m trading options, and when I’m trading on Polymarket generally.”

The trader added that they also placed low-risk bets on Biden to be inaugurated, with a 9% return and President Trump not to become President after losing the election.

How This Millionaire Economist Trades Crypto Prediction Markets — Source: Polymarket

Curiously, as of March 2021, traders can still bet that Donald Trump will become president of the USA by the end of the month.

The odds are now so low that Polymarket’s 2% fees would outweigh the 1% gain. Still, traders could have made 7% minus fees as recently as February, highlighting the difference between the “house always wins” platforms and less centralized crypto markets.

Research Methods

Research and risk management consists of reading about and discussing the topic online, including discord servers for each betting site. IP also sets Google Alerts for relevant market topics.

“Thus far this year, I’ve made more money on Polymarket than in my salaried day job, and I’m not doing it full time, which hurts my performance. Doing well on Poly generally requires staying on top of the news and doing research.”

The research is, of course, crucial to long-term success. One popular prediction market is now taking bets on whether the Biden administration will vaccinate 100 million people before Apr. 1.

Traders keep an eye on CDC cutoff times for vaccine reporting each day and calculate the moving average of vaccinations to predict results.

“For the vaccine markets, for example, it’s helpful to really dive into the data. I’ve run some regressions using the vaccine data but it’s mostly just looking at the trends in the data and in taking a big-picture perspective.”

It turns out that the number of vaccines administered has a pretty close relationship with the number of unused vaccines distributed. This suggests that should the # of vaccines increase the next few weeks, doses should rise roughly in proportion. pic.twitter.com/n1UBOFz28Q

— Insight Prediction (@Insight_Predict) March 9, 2021

Some Polymarket traders have programmed and released their own models to forecast trends in the vaccination rollout.

I have a model at https://t.co/VZoPABtf2C that predicts how many 2nd doses will be needed based on month-ago first doses, and therefore how many will be left for first doses. pic.twitter.com/1nbY7zsSXk

— Scott Leibrand (@scottleibrand) March 7, 2021

Shortcomings of Prediction Markets

The lack of risk management features makes it imperative that traders rely on automated alerts and constant vigilance for such volatile markets. These prediction markets are still in their infancy in relative terms, with limited features and events to bet on.

The underlying technology also comes with drawbacks as well as benefits. Polymarket and major competitor Augur have both been affected by ongoing congestion on the Ethereum network.

Polymarket actually runs on Polygon, an Ethereum sidechain. However, deposits and withdrawals of USDC, the only supported currency, have been slow and expensive of late due to high Ethereum traffic and fees. This issue is widespread throughout Ethereum and the DeFi ecosystem.

IP aims to tackle these issues by launching a new predictions market in the coming year, allowing users to buy and sell crypto directly, among other features.

The space will likely see the launch of increasingly sophisticated platforms and features. With so much demand and money on the line, truth-seekers and market researchers should keep a close eye.

Gambling