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2023 will see the death of play-to-earn gaming

Developers have been focusing more on tokens than on making fun games. As a result, GameFi has been dying.

Play-to-earn gaming enabled by blockchain technology has grown exponentially over the few years. 

Gamers have embraced the opportunity to collect cryptocurrencies or ​nonfungible tokens (​NFTs​)​ that have been produced in blockchain-based games.

Through the advent of this new technology, players have been able to generate income by selling in-game NFTs or earning cryptocurrency rewards, both of which can be exchanged for fiat cash.

Because of this​, according to data from​ Absolute Reports​, the estimated value of the GameFi industry will grow to $2.8 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 20.4% ​over the same period. But such predictions may well prove to be unfounded.

Given the rate of exponential growth over recent years, one might think that there was absolutely no reason to believe the trend would not continue well into 2023 and beyond. Right? Wrong.

As we have seen with the ignominious case of former crypto king Sam Bankman-Fried and the implosion of FTX, a castle built on a flimsy foundation of sand can be easily washed away when the tide comes in and goes back out again.

Related: GameFi developers could be facing big fines and hard time

Or, as legendary investor Warren Buffett liked to put it: “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

We may be about to learn who these people are. The fact of the matter is the play-to-earn gaming industry is not built on firm foundations. The foundations are fragile and flimsy, and this could well spell trouble in 2023. The whole edifice looks set to come crashing down.

The structure of the current GameFi market is token-centric and this can create a number of issues. Project owners issue their tokens which are listed on exchanges first before they announce that they are going to build games. Games are a utility of tokens they issue. So tokens come first, and contents later. This is why the quality and design of games in the blockchain space are so underrated.

Unique active wallets (UAWs) that used decentralized applications (DApps) in 2022. Source: DappRadar

An environment has been created in which the players are not all that interested in games themselves, which is a strange state of affairs for a gaming industry to find itself in. More and more of the players are, in reality, investors who want returns on investment.

The current structure creates the wrong kind of incentives and this is one of the reasons why the system is not working as it should. I would argue that DeFi Kingdom​s​, which is one of the better-known play-to-earn blockchain games out there, has been screwing with its tokenomics relentlessly by creating perverse incentives.

By now, generally speaking, the token market is in a downtrend and the speculative trading market is dead. An industry can survive for a certain amount of time on promise, expectation and unjustified hype. But, it can only do so for so long. Eventually, people begin to notice that they haven’t received what they have been promised. Patience starts to wear thin. They get angry, they get frustrated and they begin to withdraw. This begins as a trickle of the savviest players, but that can soon become a flood.

Related: Anonymous crypto developers belong in prison — and will be there soon

Those who have planned to secure funds by listing their tokens will have to reassess. Many will be forced to close their projects due to insufficient funds. The situation is becoming so acute that even hitherto bullish crypto venture capitalists (VCs) are also pausing new investments.

So, who is going to survive this investment drought? It looks unlikely that GameFi will. However, other blockchain gamings might do so.

One example is the Ethereum-powered, NFT-based fantasy football league operator Sorare has become a Web3 unicorn. While many of its competitors struggle, Sorare keeps on increasing its users and revenue during the darkest period. Their daily auction volume is impressive, at around 300-400​ Ether (​ETH​)​, and the number of users keeps increasing.

​Though ​its back end ​relies on blockchain, ​users ​do not perceive it as a ​GameFi​ project​. They do not provide their native tokens, but they do provide their content first on ​Ethereum, which very much looks like the way to go for the industry at large.

So GameFi may well die in 2023, but that does not mean that all is lost. Death is a necessary part of evolution. ​​From ​it, new life may already be beginning to emerge.

Shinnosuke “Shin” Murata is the founder of blockchain games developer Murasaki. He joined Japanese conglomerate Mitsui & Co. in 2014, doing automotive finance and trading in Malaysia, Venezuela and Bolivia. He left Mitsui to join a second-year startup called Jiraffe as the company’s first sales representative and later joined STVV, a Belgian football club, as its chief operating officer and assisted the club with creating a community token. He founded Murasaki in the Netherlands in 2019.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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Web3 community shares tips for a successful GameFi project

From creating e-sports competitions with huge prize pools to making game tokens more relevant to holders, members of the community share their thoughts on GameFi.

As the GameFi space continues its journey to attract gamers to a new gaming paradigm, community members shared their takes on what they think a mature GameFi project needs to succeed. 

From creating e-sports competitions with huge prize pools to making the game tokens more relevant for the token holders, GameFi community members shared their takes on what the space needs.

One Reddit user suggested that GameFi projects need to appeal to several target audiences. This includes whales who will provide funding, earners who are mostly kids and people from developing countries and those who play for fun that will leave good reviews for the game.

Another community member pointed out the need to improve the reputation of the space. According to the Redditor, there are some that consider GameFi a scam and this needs to be changed. In addition, the community member also highlighted that it would help if GameFi projects held e-sports competitions with high prize pools as rewards.

Meanwhile, one user said that a matured GameFi project must have a way to make its token relevant for gamers. This suggests that further use cases must be added. In addition, the user also suggested the integration of decentralized finance (DeFi) liquidity mining for the tokens.

Going back to the basics of gaming, a community member highlighted that the most important factor that GameFi projects should focus on is making the game fun. The Redditor believes that making the game fun and engaging will make users come back “day in and day out.”

Related: Big Time and other Web3 games take home the gold at the inaugural GAM3 awards

While some gamers may be against GameFi, a recent survey showed that some are willing to play more blockchain games if they are given opportunities to earn cryptos like Bitcoin (BTC). The survey also showed that more gamers are interested in earning BTC while playing compared to earning nonfungible tokens (NFTs).

Bitcoin Tumbles Below $85K as Trump’s Crypto Reserve Order Sparks Sell-Off 

Anonymous crypto developers belong in prison — and will be there soon

Users are interested in knowing the identities of developers behind the games they play. And soon, lawmakers are likely to write such disclosures into law.

In the months following the announcement of my company’s first experimental title, Cyberstella, visits to my personal LinkedIn profile increased by an astonishing 300%. What does this tell us about the rising trend of anonymous developers popping up in every Web3 community to spam users with investment opportunities and then disappear from the face of the Earth? 

Well, it spells out trouble for anonymous crypto developers who think they can get away with never putting their face where the money is, so to speak.

The fundamental principle behind crypto investing is a two-step process: Issue your project’s native token, leverage it for profit, and re-invest what you made into the project’s development itself. It’s an easy and straightforward way for builders to raise funds and keep their work up, while supporters can benefit from a token with a fluid environment and from feeling like they’re a part of the developer community, as well as a part of what makes the project a success. Of course, this model presents quite the scarcity of substance and opportunity for growth, which means that the macro crypto trend can leverage the price of native tokens.

When Murasaki, the game studio building decentralized titles on the blockchain that I co-founded, announced its first project, I decided not to be one of those GameFi developers. I was going to put my face and my name out there, right next to Murasaki’s and Cyberstella’s, because I believe in the future of what we’re building, and I believe that anonymity almost always spells out signs of trouble.

Related: 90% of GameFi projects are ruining the industry’s reputation

By looking at the LinkedIn data, I was right.

People do care about finding out more about the identity of a founder or developer before they sign over their money. However, scammers have managed to successfully convince a portion of the GameFi community to act against their own best interest, contrary to how they would behave in almost every other scenario. And when they’re done scamming one community, they move on to the next — after all, no one knows who they are, so it’s easy for them to start over with a new audience. The cycle repeats itself over and over again, and the space’s reputation keeps getting worse because of it. It’s a true lose-lose situation for everyone involved, except the anonymous scammers.

In poker, blind betting refers to the cards you are required to put down “blindly” before you have had a chance to see what they are, after which each player will do the same and either fold, call or raise without knowing what they are betting on or how it might turn out. In such a scenario, everyone is aware of the rules and circumstances, which means they trust that no other player will grab everything on the table and run. In GameFi, that’s often what happens.

I believe that anyone who boldly lies their way to full funding belongs in prison. Here’s why their moment of reckoning is closer than we might think: It’s actually not that hard to spot a scammer in action.

If they don’t display their real name, their face and their identity in verifiable ways, that’s always going to be your first red flag. Next, look for a lengthy and detailed roadmap. It shouldn’t entail a crazy amount of moving parts, nor should it be unintelligible and jargon-filled, but instead, it should just be a very clear and compelling explanation of what the project is about and what it aims to achieve in the next few months and years. If you can’t find a roadmap, that’s another major red flag. What about smart contracts? You need to be deploying smart contracts in order to deliver what you actually promise; otherwise, that’s strike three.

Related: GameFi developers could be facing big fines and hard time

Community is a huge factor for any Web3 project and anyone who’s serious about building and evolving in the space. If your potential scammer project proudly shows off 50,000 members on Telegram and Discord, but only five or 10 people seem to be online at any given time, you might have another, huge, clear-as-day red flag staring right at you.

Lastly, overpromising is a big sign that somewhere along the line, something will not quite check out the way it should. How can a project owner publicize a super high-quality AAA title they’re in the process of building while also not doing much fundraising and constantly pushing back roadmap deadline after deadline? It’s probably the easiest way to spot a scammer, and the one you should be most afraid of.

The truth is, chances are that most anonymous builders are ready to run away with the money once they raise enough, as they don’t need to try and actually turn the project into a success. They can just buy bots to increase their profile and social media standing, pay pennies to shillers who will keep up the appearance of an active community on Telegram and Discord, and be done with their job.

Here’s the good news: Only in the last few years, crypto scammers have faced 18 months in prison, 15 years, 115 years — and even 40,000 years. Yes, really, 40,000. When it’s so easy to spot a scammer and the sentences they face should they get caught so high, here’s hoping that people will wise up to the reality of GameFi scams, and anonymous developers will realize nothing could be worth 40,000 years in prison.

May 2023 be the year that we put anonymous crypto scammers where they belong — far, far away from the community we’re proud of and even further away from eager investors’ money.

Shinnosuke “Shin” Murata is the founder of blockchain games developer Murasaki. He joined Japanese conglomerate Mitsui & Co. in 2014, doing automotive finance and trading in Malaysia, Venezuela and Bolivia. He left Mitsui to join a second-year startup called Jiraffe as the company’s first sales representative and later joined STVV, a Belgian football club, as its chief operating officer and assisted the club with creating a community token. He founded Murasaki in the Netherlands in 2019.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin Tumbles Below $85K as Trump’s Crypto Reserve Order Sparks Sell-Off 

FTC opposes Microsoft’s metaverse-focused Activision Blizzard purchase

Microsoft CEO and chairman Satya Nadella had previously stated that the acquisition of Activision Blizzard would “play a key role in the development of metaverse platforms.”

Microsoft’s attempt to acquire Activision Blizzard — a move originally aimed toward building Metaverse initiatives — hit a roadblock after an intervention by the United States Federal Trade Commission (FTC).

The FTC sought to block Microsoft from acquiring the gaming giant as a way to promote fair competition in high-performance gaming consoles and subscription services. However, Microsoft CEO and chairman Satya Nadella had previously stated that acquisition would “play a key role in the development of metaverse platforms.”

In a recent complaint, FTC argued that Microsoft and Sony already “control” the high-performance gaming industry — via XBOX and Play Station consoles — and acquiring Activision Blizzard would increase Microsoft’s power in the sector.

Holly Vedova, FTC’s Bureau of Competition director, noted Microsoft’s record of acquiring ZeniMax and limiting the publishing of popular games, such as Starfield and Redfall, to XBOX consoles, adding:

“Microsoft has already shown that it can and will withhold content from its gaming rivals.”

The complaint speculates a similar fate for Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Diablo and Overwatch, among other games, that belong to the Activision ecosystem. However, FTC’s concerns indirectly impact Microsoft’s metaverse initiatives.

In July, FTC filed a lawsuit against social media giant Meta, alleging “its ultimate goal of owning the entire ‘metaverse.’” “As Meta fully recognizes, network effects on a digital platform can cause the platform to become more powerful — and its rivals weaker and less able to seriously compete — as it gains more users, content, and developers,” said FTC in the complaint.

Related: Meta ‘powering through’ with metaverse plans despite doubts — Zuckerberg

In October, a Meta shareholder urged the company to cut down on its yearly investment. According to Brad Gerstner, CEO and founder of technology investment firm Altimeter Capital, Meta’s investments of $10 billion to $15 billion per year into building the metaverse may need a decade to yield returns.

“An estimated $100B+ investment in an unknown future is super-sized and terrifying, even by Silicon Valley standards,” Gerstner stated.

Bitcoin Tumbles Below $85K as Trump’s Crypto Reserve Order Sparks Sell-Off 

GameStop to drop crypto efforts as Q3 losses near $95M

The gaming company has stopped its cryptocurrency-related focuses but is seemingly still pushing ahead with its NFT and blockchain plans.

Gaming retailer GameStop says it will no longer focus any efforts on cryptocurrencies, after amounting $94.7 million in net losses in the third quarter and laying off staff from its digital assets department.

On a Dec. 7 earnings call GameStop CEO, Matt Furlong, said it “proactively minimized exposure to cryptocurrency” over the year and “does not currently hold a material balance of any token,” adding:

“Although we continue to believe there is long-term potential for digital assets in the gaming world, we have not and will not risk meaningful stockholder capital in this space.”

Earlier this year the company said it was looking at crypto, along with nonfungible tokens (NFTs) and Web3 applications, as avenues for growth calling these spaces "increasingly relevant for gamers of the future."

Going forward it will shift focus to collectibles, gaming and pre-owned items.

Its moves in the NFT space are still seemingly going ahead as it says its “also pursuing, and plan to continue to pursue, other business and strategic initiatives associated with digital assets and blockchain technology,” according to a Dec. 7 filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Cointelegraph contacted GameStop to confirm that it would continue efforts on its NFT marketplace but did not receive a response.

GameStop has pushed numerous Web3-related products, the most recent being its NFT marketplace that went live on ImmutableX, an Ethereum layer-2 blockchain, on Oct. 31 following a July public beta.

Prior to its NFT marketplace, in May the company launched a beta self-custody crypto wallet and beta NFT marketplace on Loopring in March, Loopring is another Ethereum-based layer-2 protocol.

It also partnered with the now bankrupt crypto exchange FTX US in September aimed at bringing more customers to crypto and working together on e-commerce and online marketing initiatives. It ended ties with the exchange on Nov. 11 soon after it filed for bankruptcy.

It’s Q3 losses slightly narrowed compared to the second quarter however, which saw losses of $108.7 million. It’s also a year-on-year improvement for GameStop, which posted a $105.4 million loss in Q3 2021.

Staff cuts reportedly hit crypto department

On Dec. 5 GameStop cut multiple staff in its third round of layoffs for 2022 which Furlong confirmed in the earnings call.

Earlier reports suggested that the team working on the company's blockchain and NFT projects was the most impacted, however, Furlong did not specify where the staff cuts were concentrated during the call. 

Earlier posts from people claiming to be former employees have shed some light. Daniel Williams, lead software engineer at GameStop wrote in a Dec. 5 LinkedIn post:

“Another big round of layoffs from GameStop currently in progress… E-commerce Product and Engineers... Lots of them.”

Related: The reason bots dominate crypto gaming? Cash-grubbing developers incentivize them

Other posts from those claiming to be affected by the cuts also appeared on LinkedIn at the time. Brandon Jenniges, a former iOS and blockchain engineer posted he “had a great time getting a deep dive into Ethereum and learning about many new things in the crypto space.”

“I and the rest of the mobile team were let go,” wrote former developer Christopher Fields.

In July, the company terminated its CFO Michael Recupero and a number of staff at its video game-focused magazine Game Informer.

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Axie Infinity is toxic for crypto gaming

Axie Infinity, like most cryptocurrency games, has provided players with an awful experience.

Blockchain gaming is only four years old — a toddler compared to the rest of the industry. It has a lot of growing up to do, particularly when it comes to play-to-earn games.

I’m a 28-year game industry veteran. I’ve produced 32 titles in that period of time on everything from Sega Genesis to Oculus Rift. Some of them were great. Many were forgettable. I didn't hear much chatter about blockchain gaming from traditional developers and players until Axie Infinity began to take off. Cut to the peak of 2021, and the game had nearly 2 million players logging on daily.

Most people outside the crypto community at the time were (and still are) extremely skeptical about blockchain's ability to add anything meaningful to games. They see Axie as an example of the low production values and rampant speculation they want to avoid at all costs. Moreso, they see blockchain as a continuation of overreach by publishers. However, in 2021, many believed Axie would prove blockchain gaming skeptics wrong.

It didn't. Axie and most other crypto “games” to date have been awful experiences. They aren't even really games. They’re more like digital sharecropping, rich NFT owners exploiting low-wage earning players. It’s shallow gameplay layered on a tokenomics model. This was highlighted most recently in October, when Axie's SLP token plummeted in value as a result of an impending token unlock.

Related: Crypto gaming needs to be fun to be successful — Money doesn’t matter

Most players sell their tokens on the crypto market rather than in the game, meaning token numbers increase and cause a sort of crypto inflation. The game model relies on a constant inflow of new players to sustain it — something this month has shown to be very much not guaranteed.

Axie's value is primarily driven by this speculation rather than fun. The game, if it can even be called that, is literally a grind. Despite attempts to separate it from game economy reliance with iterations like Axie Origins, the toxic model of being hyper-dependent on tokenomics prevails. This continues to detract from projects that are trying to make fun games that utilize blockchain to enhance player experience.

At the peak of its popularity, the team behind Axie arrogantly claimed that they were “freeing” players and enabling a world in which work and play merge. But the game’s decline following the massive $620 million hack on customer funds in March showed how hollow this language was. Axie creator Sky Mavis flip-flopped from the play-to-earn narrative towards a play-and-earn ethos, clearly aware that the game wasn't going to deliver on its mission.

For blockchain gaming to succeed, developers need to focus on awesome game design instead of trying to prop up their tokens. During an increasingly difficult global economic climate, even mainstream gaming is struggling. But those games that are doing well despite market sentiment are AAA titles like God of War Ragnarök and the latest Call of Duty, which have exciting lore and awesome gameplay.

The ability for players to spend time creating things that people will love in terms of stickers, skins and weapons — while being able to monetize them — is key. People need an outlet where they can be creative and put together content that generates interest and emotion with a community that loves playing the game.

If we are to turn the tide on the perception of blockchain gaming, we need to show how it can benefit gamers. Moving beyond words and actually demonstrating that it enhances gameplay and utility. Blockchain can do incredible things as a backend infrastructure, such as enabling players to truly own in-game items, prove attribution and the history of their weapons and loot, and get rewarded for their in-game creations.

Related: The reason bots dominate crypto gaming? Cash-grubbing developers incentivize them

Part of Vitalik Buterin’s drive to innovate with blockchain was driven by his distress when he lost a spell’s abilities in World of Warcraft overnight as a result of centralized control of the game. Blockchain ultimately restores true ownership of in-game features to players, meaning that they own them, even if changes occur in a game or it goes under.

This asset ownership can extend into many areas. Right now, Microsoft and Sony let you capture video of your in-game activity and then post it to social media, but you don’t really own how it’s monetized. You’re locked into YouTube monetization. With blockchain, players could capture in-game moments, memorialize them as NFTs and then allow people to buy/sell them as they see fit. By updating gaming infrastructure and enabling new innovation, real-time integration of players into the creative process can also take place, which is rarely seen in the industry.

Players want involvement in the creation of the games. They don't want to be manipulated into paying more. Studios need to prioritize gameplay, rich graphics, and compelling narratives to bring players on board. The blockchain games that become successful will be the ones where players don't even know there's a blockchain operating in the background.

Deception and speculative frenzies have been the central features of the wider crypto market this year. So bringing players on board is going to be that much harder. Studios will have to go the extra mile to demonstrate to players that blockchain gaming can achieve the security, fun, and adrenaline-pumping action that defines the games they love.

Mark Long is the CEO of Shrapnel, a blockchain-enabled moddable AAA first-person shooter game. He graduated from the University of Texas at Austin with a BS in computer science before attending an executive education program at the Wharton School. He previously served as a director with HBO's digital products group; as a group program manager at Microsoft; and as the CEO of companies including Aristia, Meteor Entertainment, and Zombie Studios.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Bitcoin Tumbles Below $85K as Trump’s Crypto Reserve Order Sparks Sell-Off 

Game7 Launches $100 Million Grants Program to Push Web3 Gaming Development

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Bitcoin Tumbles Below $85K as Trump’s Crypto Reserve Order Sparks Sell-Off