Cathie Wood’s ARK bags 1.1M Robinhood shares in one day

November 9, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest has continued accumulating Robinhood shares while dumping Grayscale Bitcoin Trust shares.

ARK Invest, the investment firm founded by major Bitcoin (BTC) advocate Cathie Wood, is actively accumulating stock of the crypto-friendly app Robinhood (HOOD).

On Nov. 8, ARK made a massive Robinhood stock purchase, bagging a total of 1.1 million shares for about $9.5 million in one day, according to a trade notification seen by Cointelegraph.

The purchase involved three innovation exchange-traded funds (ETF) managed by ARK, including ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) and ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF).

ARKK has allocated the biggest amount of shares in the purchase, buying 888,500 HOOD shares, or 78% of the entire daily buy. ARKW and ARKF allocated 152,849 shares and 99,697 shares, respectively.

The mega purchase followed steady Robinhood equity-buying by ARK, though the most recent purchases involved significantly smaller purchases. On Oct. 23, ARK purchased 197,285 Robinhood shares for its ARKW funds, following a 259,628 HOOD buy on the previous day.

The latest buy came as Robinhood on Nov. 8 disclosed plans to expand into Europe in the coming weeks, particularly exploring establishing brokerage operations in the United Kingdom. The announcement coincided with the HOOD stock plunging over 14% after the online brokerage reported worse-than-expected results as trading activity and users declined. According to data from TradingView, Robinhood closed at $8.37 on Nov. 8.

*Robinhood (HOOD) five-day price chart. Source: TradingView*

While actively buying Robinhood, ARK has continued to sell Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) shares, with ARKW dumping another 48,477 GBTC for $1.4 million on Nov. 8. On Nov. 6, ARKW sold another large portion of GBTC of 139,506 shares, worth nearly $4 million.

ARK started selling GBTC shares in late October 202, following a year's break from touching the GBTC stock. Since Oct. 24, ARK has sold a total of 427,573 GBTC shares, worth about $11.9 million at the time of writing. The purchase amount is nearing the amount of GBTC shares sold by ARK in November 2022.

ARK has concurrently also announced the launch of new ETFs focused on Bitcoin and Ether futures contracts in collaboration with its major crypto ETF partner, 21Shares. According to joint prospectuses, the firms expect to launch trading of five new crypto products on the Chicago Board Options Exchange on by Nov. 16.

Magazine: How to protect your crypto in a volatile market — Bitcoin OGs and experts weigh in

Bitcoin futures data highlight investors’ bullish view, but there’s a catch

October 31, 2023 Coin Telegraph

bonds

The stars are lining up for Bitcoin price, but a few major price threats remain in play.

Bitcoin (BTC) price surged by 26.5% in October and several indicators hit a one-year high, including the BTC futures premium and the Grayscale GBTC discount.

For this reason, it's challenging to present a bearish thesis for BTC as data reflects the post-FTX-Alameda Research collapse recovery period and is also influenced by the recent increase in interest rates by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Despite the positive indicators, Bitcoin price still remains around 50% below its all-time high of $69,900 which was hit in November 2021. In contrast, gold is trading just 4.3% below its $2,070 level from March 2022. This stark difference diminishes the significance of Bitcoin's year-to-date gains of 108% and highlights the fact that Bitcoin's adoption as an alternative hedge is still in its early stages.

Before deciding whether the improvement in Bitcoin futures premium, open interest and the GBTC fund premium signal a return to the norm, or the initial signs of institutional investors' interest, it's essential for investors to analyze the macroeconomic environment.

The U.S. budget issue sparks Bitcoin’s institutional hope

On Oct. 30, the U.S. Treasury announced plans to auction off $1.6 trillion of debt over the next six months. However, the key factor to watch is the size of the auction and the balance between shorter-term Treasury bills and longer-duration notes and bonds, according to CNBC.

Billionaire and Duquesne Capital founder Stanley Druckenmiller criticized Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's focus on shorter-term debt, calling it "the biggest blunder in the history of the Treasury." This unprecedented increase in the debt rate by the world's largest economy has led Druckenmiller to praise Bitcoin as an alternative store of value.

The surge in Bitcoin futures open interest, reaching its highest level since May 2022 at $15.6 billion, can be attributed to institutional demand driven by inflationary risks in the economy. Notably, the CME has become the second-largest trading venue for Bitcoin derivatives, with $3.5 billion notional of BTC futures.

Moreover, the Bitcoin futures premium, which measures the difference between 2-month contracts and the spot price, has reached its highest level in over a year. These fixed-month contracts typically trade at a slight premium to spot markets, indicating that sellers are requesting more money to delay settlement.

*Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas*

The demand for leveraged BTC long positions has significantly increased, as the futures contract premium jumped from 3.5% to 8.3% on Oct. 31, surpassing the neutral-to-bullish threshold of 5% for the first time in 12 months.

Further bolstering the speculation of institutional demand is Grayscale's GBTC fund discount narrowing the gap to the equivalent underlying BTC holdings. This instrument was trading at a 20.7% discount on Sept. 30 but has since reduced this deficit to 14.9% as investors anticipate a higher likelihood of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval in the U.S.

Not everything is rosy for Bitcoin, and exchange risks loom

While the data seems undeniably positive for Bitcoin, especially when compared to previous months, investors should take exchange-provided numbers with caution, particularly when dealing with unregulated derivatives contracts.

The U.S. interest rate has surged to 5.25%, and exchange risks have escalated post-FTX, making the 8.6% Bitcoin futures premium less bullish. For comparison, the CME Bitcoin annualized premium stands at 6.8%, while Comex gold futures trade at a 5.5% premium, and CME's S&P 500 futures trade at 4.9% above spot prices.

The Bitcoin futures premium, in the broader context, is not excessively high, especially considering that Bloomberg analysts give a 95% chance of approval for a Bitcoin spot ETF. Investors are also mindful of the general risks in cryptocurrency markets, as highlighted by U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis's call for the Justice Department to take "swift action" against Binance and Tether.

The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could trigger sell pressure from GBTC holders. Part of the $21.4 billion in GBTC holdings will finally be able to exit their positions at par after years of limitations imposed by Grayscale's administration and exorbitant 2% yearly fees. In essence, the positive data and performance of Bitcoin reflect a return to the mean rather than excessive optimism.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

First Bitcoin Futures ETF Registers $1,700,000,000 in Trading Volume Last Week: Bloomberg Analyst

October 30, 2023 The Daily Hodl

First Bitcoin ETF trades $1.5B as GBTC ‘discount’ echoes $69K BTC price

October 29, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

ProShares and Grayscale lead a surge of activity in Bitcoin investment products, with analysis confident of implied demand for a Bitcoin spot ETF.

Bitcoin (BTC) institutional investment vehicles are seeing a major volume boost as excitement over possible United States regulatory changes takes hold.

Data from resources including Bloomberg showed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and others nearing record weekly inflows.

BITO, GBTC trade $2.5 billion

Hints that the U.S. might soon allow a Bitcoin spot price-based ETF have not only impacted BTC price action — the surrounding ecosystem has benefitted in kind.

In addition to exchanges and mining firms, embattled institutional investment options are also seeing a resurgence in demand.

As noted by Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, at least two household names saw “notable” volume in the trading week through Oct. 27.

Among them was the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), the first futures-based ETF to get the green light in the U.S. in 2021.

“$BITO traded $1.7b last week, 2nd biggest week since its wild WEEK ONE,” Balchunas wrote in part of X commentary.

He noted that the stalwart Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) fetched $800 million in volume, helping reduce its discount to the Bitcoin spot price to two-year lows.

“That's $2.5b (top 1% among ETFs) into two less desirable methods (vs spot) for exposure = while we think spot ETFs unlikely to set records on DAY ONE, clearly there's an audience,” the X post concluded.

Notable: $BITO traded $1.7b last week, 2nd biggest week since its wild WEEK ONE. $GBTC did $800m. That's $2.5b (top 1% among ETFs) into two less desirable methods (vs spot) for exposure = while we think spot ETFs unlikely to set records on DAY ONE, clearly there's an audience pic.twitter.com/6bFYtE0UoR
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) October 28, 2023

Others also picked up on the data, with William Clemente, co-founder of crypto research firm Reflexivity, describing ETF trading as "back in full steam."

Legacy finance could "know something we don't yet"

As Cointelegraph reported, GBTC has seen a remarkable comeback in recent months, even prior to BTC/USD gaining 15% last week.

Legal victories on the long road to gaining permission to convert GBTC into a spot ETF provided kindling, and Grayscale’s product now trades with an implied share price, which is just 13.1% below the BTC spot price.

Per data from monitoring resource CoinGlass, this is the lowest since November 2021, when Bitcoin itself was at all-time highs.

"The GBTC discount keeps narrowing," popular Bitcoin and altcoin trader Mister Crypto meanwhile responded.

"Maybe TradFi knows something we don't know yet..."

*GBTC premium vs. asset holdings vs. BTC/USD chart (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass*

Despite this, investment management firm ARK Invest has reduced its GBTC holdings in step with the share price gains.

While ARK itself plans a Bitcoin spot ETF launch, GBTC now accounts for 10.24% of its ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) — its first change since November 2022.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Discount Narrows As Court Gears Up To Issue GBTC Mandate: Report

October 17, 2023 The Daily Hodl

Grayscale GBTC discount falls to 16% as markets bet on Bitcoin ETF approval

October 16, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

Some analysts say GBTC’s discount is narrowing because investors are pricing in the SEC’s approval on several pending spot Bitcoin ETF applications.

Grayscale’s Bitcoin investment vehicle, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is trading at its lowest discount in nearly two years, as spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to inch toward potential approval in the United States.

The latest data from YCharts shows GBTC’s discount to Bitcoin net asset value (NAV) has narrowed to 15.87% as of Oct. 13.

Discount to net asset value (NAV) is a percentage that measures the amount that a mutual fund or ETF is trading below its net asset value. The metric is used to track how far away a security is trading away from its true value.

Data shows that GBTC’s discount began to narrow when BlackRock and several other financial institutions filed spot Bitcoin ETF applications in mid-June, where the discount fell from 44% on June 15 to 26.7% by July 5. Since then, the figure has continued to narrow.

*GBTC’s Discount to NAV chart over the last 12 months. Source: YCharts*

The last time GBTC’s discount was at a similar level was in early December 2021 — only a month after BTC hit its all-time high price of $69,000 on Nov. 10, according to CoinGecko.

Bitcoin advocate Oliver Velez believes the market is pricing in spot Bitcoin ETF approval by year's end.

Other analysts, such as cryptocurrency investor Lyle Pratt believe GBTC’s discount will continue to “evaporate” over the next week or two as spot Bitcoin ETFs near approval.

THE GBTC DISCOUNT HAS NARROWED TO 16% AS THE MARKET BETS ON A BITCOIN SPOT ETF APPROVAL.

Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust, commonly known as GBTC, has experienced notable changes in its market dynamics. At the start of this year, GBTC was trading at a significant discount of 48.31%… pic.twitter.com/2nWLmvnewb
— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) October 13, 2023

Reports emerged that the SEC wouldn’t appeal the Grayscale decision on Oct. 13, leading to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart referring to spot Bitcoin ETF approvals as a “done deal” in an Oct. 13 post.

On Oct. 15, Grayscale reportedly delivered a statement noting that the SEC’s 45-day period to seek a rehearing had passed, meaning the court would issue its “final mandate” within seven calendar days.

"The Grayscale team remains operationally ready to convert GBTC to an ETF upon the SEC’s approval, and we look forward to sharing more information as soon as practicable," the company reportedly said.

NEW: Statement from @Grayscale on the @SECGov’s decision to not seek a rehearing:

“The Federal Rules of Appellate Procedure’s 45-day period to seek rehearing has now passed. The Court will now issue its final mandate within seven calendar days. The Grayscale team remains…
— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) October 15, 2023

Cointelegraph reached out to Grayscale for comment but did not receive an immediate response.

Magazine: How to protect your crypto in a volatile market — Bitcoin OGs and experts weigh in

Bitcoin price gets new $25K target as SEC decision day boosts GBTC

October 13, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin analysis flags liquidity waiting in the wings above and below the current BTC price range, while GBTC erases more of its discount.

Bitcoin (BTC) ranged around the key $26,800 mark for a second day on Oct. 13 with a decision due in United States regulators’ battle with crypto investment giant Grayscale.

*BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView*

Bitcoin lurks between major liquidity clouds

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed that the BTC price barely changed from the day prior, acting in a narrow corridor.

Bitcoin market analysts weighed potential catalysts, among these the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) choosing whether or not to appeal a court ruling over its refusal to allow a Bitcoin spot exchange-traded fund (ETF).

“Today is an important day with the SEC Appeal on the Grayscale ruling,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of MN Trading, wrote in part of an X (formerly Twitter) post.

“If nothing happens, we might be seeing a case where Bitcoin reverses upwards in the coming weeks. I'm positioned long.”

*BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X*

Macro data prints were due to take a break following a series of releases throughout the week, which all showed inflation more persistent than market expectations had predicted.

Summarizing possible BTC price trajectory from here, popular trader and analyst Credible Crypto saw cause for modest optimism.

“We have a very clear and seemingly controlled ‘stairstep’ down on price here. Clear low timeframe breakdowns, retests, and continuation,” he explained alongside a chart.

“We are leaving behind equal lows right below us, so ideally I’d like to see these cleaned up before a reversal. Considering we have bids stacked above and below us, a push to the local highs into asks followed by a rejection and sweep of our lows into the waiting bids and local demand seems like the perfect way to form a reversal here. Let’s see how things develop.”

*BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Credible Crypto/X*

Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades noted BTC/USD moving within a zone between two liquidity clouds, with a reaction more likely should the spot price reach either one.

#Bitcoin Liquidation Map

Big zones at $26.5K & $27K. Would expect some sort of ssqueeze to occur at those areas. pic.twitter.com/VW6YYPkMe4
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) October 13, 2023

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital meanwhile placed a target of $25,000 on Bitcoin should bulls fail to reclaim exponential moving averages (EMAs) lost through the week.

#BTC

Needs to reclaim at least one of these EMAs as support to avoid a drop into the $25k-$26k area$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/ywRkdM07uw
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 12, 2023

GBTC claws back more lost ground

Ahead of the appeal deadline, Grayscale’s flagship investment fund, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), continued to outperform.

The focus of the legal proceedings, GBTC will end up as a spot ETF, Grayscale has said, with an early victory for the firm seeing its fortunes turn around through Q2.

On Oct. 11, GBTC hit its smallest discount to net asset value — the Bitcoin spot price — since December 2021.

The discount, technically a negative premium, reached -16.44% before dipping slightly lower, per data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

What happens if SEC doesn’t appeal Grayscale spot Bitcoin ETF ruling?

October 13, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Appeal

The SEC must appeal Grayscale’s win in a D.C. Appeals Court on Oct. 13, or it will have to approve — or try to delay — the firm’s Bitcoin ETF bid.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission will soon reach its deadline to appeal the court decision that ruled in favor of Grayscale Investments, forcing the regulator to review the fund manager’s application for a spot Bitcoin (BTC) fund.

While many observers don’t believe the securities regulator will attempt to appeal the court’s decision, analysts say there could still be ways for the SEC to delay approval of Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin ETF conversion.

On Oct. 13, the SEC must either appeal the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals decision to the U.S. Supreme Court, request the Appeals Court revisit its ruling, or follow the court’s August order and review Grayscale’s bid to change its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot Bitcoin ETF.

In an Oct. 12 post responding to an X user's question, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balcunas said an appeal was unlikely, though there could still be other hurdles happening.

“We think [an] appeal is a longshot [...] But there’s always a chance of something else happening.”

Meanwhile, in a separate post, fellow Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said that an SEC attempt to deny on new grounds was unlikely and a “very difficult needle to thread” but it could “find ways to keep delaying.”

Not officially. SEC could attempt to deny on new grounds but as @EricBalchunas, myself, @NYCStein, @SGJohnsson, @NateGeraci and many others have said. It would be a very difficult needle to thread and we view as unlikely. They can find ways to keep delaying though IMO.
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) October 12, 2023

A September note from law firm Ropes & Gray warned the GBTC application could be sent back for review to the SEC, giving the regulator another chance to reject it on a different basis.

“In this scenario, the new denial could itself then be subject to another appeal by GBTC to the D.C. Circuit,” wrote the firm.

Another delay scenario, according to Ropes & Gray, would be if the New York Stock Exchange has to make a new filing to list GBTC — then it is possible the SEC could take up to eight months to reach a decision on the ETF.

Currently, at least seven spot Bitcoin ETF applications are before the regulator for approval.

Despite all being filed with the regulator earlier in 2023, all have faced delays and pushbacks from the SEC leaving the final approval deadlines for most around March 2024 or later.

However, most eyes are on Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin ETF conversion application because if the SEC approves it — the regulator could struggle to find reasons to knock back other applications.

The likelihood of an approved spot Bitcoin ETF this year is 75%, according to Bloomberg analysts who updated the odds after Grayscale’s court win. The odds jump to a 95% likelihood of approval by the end of 2024.

Magazine: Web3 Gamer: Apple to fix gaming? SEC hates Metaverse, Logan Paul trolled on Steam

Bitcoin derivatives data suggests BTC price holds the current range

September 12, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bankruptcy

BTC investor sentiment turns increasingly bullish after this week’s quick rebound from a sharp price correction.

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a 5% increase after testing the $25,000 support level on Sept. 11. However, this breakout rally doesn't necessarily indicate a victory for bulls. To put today’s price action in perspective, BTC has witnessed a 15% decline since July. In contrast, the S&P 500 index and gold have maintained relatively stable positions during this period.

This underperformance demonstrates that Bitcoin has struggled to gain momentum, despite significant catalysts such as Microstrategy's plan to acquire an additional $750 million worth of BTC and the multiple requests for Bitcoin spot ETFs from trillion-dollar asset management firms. Still, according to Bitcoin derivatives, bulls are confident that $25,000 marked a bottom and opened room for further price gains.

*Bitcoin/USD vs. gold and S&P 500 futures, 12-hour. Source: TradingView*

Some argue that Bitcoin's primary drivers for 2024 are still in play, specifically the prospects of a spot ETF and the reduction in supply following the April 2024 halving. Additionally, some of the cryptocurrency markets’ immediate risks have diminished following the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) experiencing partial losses in three separate cases involving Grayscale, Ripple and the decentralized exchange Uniswap.

On the other hand, bears have their own set of advantages, including the ongoing legal cases against leading exchanges like Binance and Coinbase. Moreover, there is the troubled financial situation of the Digital Currency Group (DCG) after one of its subsidiaries declared bankruptcy in January 2023. The group is burdened with debts exceeding $3.5 billion, potentially leading to the sale of funds managed by Grayscale, including the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).

Let's look at derivatives metrics to understand better how professional traders are positioned in the current market conditions.

Bitcoin futures and options metrics held steady despite the correction

Bitcoin monthly futures typically trade at a slight premium to spot markets, indicating that sellers are asking for more money to delay settlement. As a result, BTC futures contracts should typically trade at a 5 to 10% annualized premium — a situation known as contango, which is not unique to crypto markets.

*Bitcoin 1-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch*

It's worth noting that the demand for leveraged BTC long and short positions through futures contracts did not have a significant impact on the drop below the $25,000 mark on Sept. 11. However, the BTC futures premium continues to hover below the 5% neutral threshold. This metric remains in the neutral-to-bearish range, indicating a lack of demand for leverage long positions.

To gauge market sentiment further, it’s also helpful to look at the options markets, as the 25% delta skew can assess whether the retest of the $25,000 has made investors more optimistic. In short, if traders expect a drop in Bitcoin’s price, the skew metric will rise above 7%, while periods of excitement typically have a negative 7% skew.

*Bitcoin 30-day options 25% delta skew. Source: Laevitas.ch*

The situation underwent a notable shift on Sept. 11, as the 25% delta skew metric, which previously indicated a 9% premium on protective put options, suggesting investors were expecting a correction, has now leveled off at 0. This indicates a balanced pricing between call and put options, implying equal odds for both bullish and bearish price movements.

Macroeconomic uncertainty favors bears, but BTC bulls remain confident

Given the uncertainty on the macroeconomic front, particularly with the upcoming release of the inflation CPI report on Sept. 13 and retail sales data on Sept. 14, it's likely that crypto traders will be cautious and prefer a "return to the mean." In this context, the mean represents the predominant trading range of $25,500 to $26,200 observed over the past couple of weeks.

However, from a bullish perspective, the fact that derivatives markets held up during the dip below $25,000 is a promising sign. In other words, if bears had significant conviction, one would expect a stronger appetite for put options and a negative BTC futures premium, known as "backwardation."

Ultimately, both bulls and bears have significant triggers that could influence the price of Bitcoin, but predicting the timing of events such as court decisions and ETF rulings is challenging. This dual uncertainty likely explains why derivatives metrics have remained resilient, as both sides exercise caution to avoid excessive exposure.

GBTC ‘discount’ hits smallest since 2021 despite BTC price at 3-month lows

September 11, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin sits in the shade as the GBTC share price creeps ever closer to 1:1 against the BTC price.

Bitcoin (BTC) investment vehicle, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (BTC), now trades at just 17% below BTC price parity.

The latest data from monitoring resource CoinGlass confirms that as of Sep. 9, GBTC shares traded at 17.17% less than BTC/USD.

GBTC retraces nearly two years of losses

Bitcoin’s largest institutional investment vehicle, GBTC has seen its fortunes improve significantly since news that BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, said that it planned to file an application for the United States’ first Bitcoin spot price-based exchange-traded fund (ETF).

This was music to the ears of Grayscale executives, who were already in the middle of a legal battle with U.S. regulators over turning GBTC itself into a spot ETF.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has yet to approve a single spot ETF application, recently delaying a decision on multiple projects.

Despite this, Grayscale last month won a key face-off with the SEC, securing a welcome industry boost, which further buoyed GBTC price performance.

GBTC shares’ discount to the Bitcoin price — once a surplus referred to as the “GBTC Premium,” was just 17.17% on Sep. 9, marking its best levels since December 2021.

The premium has been negative, known as a discount to net asset value (NAV), ever since. At one point it reached nearly 50%.

No joy for Bitcoin bulls

GBTC has thus begun to diverge from BTC price strength, with the latter still sloping downhill as it retests levels rarely seen over the past six months.

BTC price traded at under $25,500 at the time of writing, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed, with the Wall Street open adding fuel to an already limp market.

As Cointelegraph reported, September tends to be a weak month for BTC/USD, which often loses up to 10%.

“September is historically a pretty bad month for Bitcoin, that's just the facts. October is historically very bullish,” popular trader and analyst CryptoCon told X followers in part of commentary on the day.

CryptoCon added a chart flagging late November as a key time to watch for signs of life on Bitcoin during pre-halving years.

This echoes an existing theory, which specifically gives Nov. 28 as the “bull run launch” date for Bitcoin price once every four years.

*BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: CryptoCon/X*

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

GBTC

The U.S. budget issue sparks Bitcoin’s institutional hope

Not everything is rosy for Bitcoin, and exchange risks loom

BITO, GBTC trade $2.5 billion

Legacy finance could "know something we don't yet"

Bitcoin lurks between major liquidity clouds

GBTC claws back more lost ground

Bitcoin futures and options metrics held steady despite the correction

Macroeconomic uncertainty favors bears, but BTC bulls remain confident

GBTC retraces nearly two years of losses

No joy for Bitcoin bulls

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