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Three-quarters of BTC addresses still in profit despite market decline: Glassnode

The report by Glassnode also revealed that up to 60% of the transaction volume is in what it calls “profit dominance”, and long-term holders are the most likely to be in the green.

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has been on the decline again recently, but new insights from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode show that up to 75% of Bitcoin addresses are in profit.

In its Week-On Chain report published on Monday, April 11, Glassnode analyzed the number of Bitcoin wallets that are in profit and found that around 70% to 75% of addresses are seeing an unrealized profit, much higher than the 45% to 50% of addresses during the 2018 bear market.

Commenting on the findings, the Glassnode analysts added that the current bear market is nowhere near as bad as previous ones:

“The current bear market is not as severe as the worst phases of all prior cycles, with just 25% to 30% of the market being at an unrealized loss. It remains to be seen if further sell-side pressure will drive the market lower, and thus pull more of the market into an unrealized loss like prior cycles.”

The report further revealed that long-term holders of Bitcoin, those who have held for over 155 days, were the least likely to be at a loss. More than 67.5% of long-term holders are at an unrealized profit, whereas short-term holders, those who have held for less than 155 days, have seen only 7.88% make any gains.

Currently, the Bitcoin price is below $40,000 and dipped close to $39,000 in the last 24 hours, which has placed the asset back into bear market territory. The direction in which Bitcoin will head has some speculating a drop to $30,000, whilst other data shows traders attempting to push the price to $50,000.

The report also detailed that 58% of the volume on the Bitcoin network is in what it terms “profit dominance”, a metric that hasn’t been strongly observed since December 2021.

Glassnode added that bear markets typically see long periods of transaction volume that make a loss, and this reversal to profit dominance could be a sign that sentiment is shifting, with demand for Bitcoin able to buy the sell-side.

However, Glassnode writes, “given prices continue to struggle, it does suggest that the demand side remains somewhat lackluster and that investors are taking profits into whatever market strength can be found.”

The analysts added that the market has seen daily realized profits of around 13,300 BTC since mid-February whilst daily realized losses declined from around 20,000 BTC in January, to around 8,300 BTC last week.

Related: Bitcoin price dip to $39.2K places BTC back in 'bear market' territory

Whilst a large proportion of addresses and transactions see a profit, overall the amount of users on the Bitcoin network, and subsequently, the amount of transactions, is continuing to “languish” according to the analysts.

Transactions on the network are at around 225,000 daily transactions, a number similar to the 2018 to 2019 bear market. Transactions have climbed from mid-2021 but the analysts noted that “it is a far cry from the hype cycle observed during bull markets.”

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Large-Cap Altcoin Replacing Bitcoin (BTC) As Driver of Crypto Market Trend, According to Glassnode Co-Founder

Market intelligence firm Glassnode says leading digital asset Bitcoin (BTC) has been usurped as the best indicator of the crypto industry’s momentum. In a new analysis, Glassnode co-founders Jan Happel and Yann Allemann note that leading smart contract platform Ethereum (ETH) appears to be the crypto market’s new benchmark. “Looking back to the time since […]

The post Large-Cap Altcoin Replacing Bitcoin (BTC) As Driver of Crypto Market Trend, According to Glassnode Co-Founder appeared first on The Daily Hodl.

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Inflows to Canadian Bitcoin ETFs hit all-time high: Glassnode

Outflows of Bitcoin from exchanges have hit a yearly high, but inflows to Canadian Bitcoin ETFs are at also at peak levels as investor confidence in the asset grows.

Canadian Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings have increased to all-time highs according to recent research, and spot-based products are leading the way.

Canadian Bitcoin ETFs have increased their holdings by 6,594 Bitcoin (BTC) since January to reach an all-time high of 69,052 total BTC held.

The Purpose Bitcoin ETF saw the biggest increase in holdings over that time period with a net growth of 18.7% to 35,000 BTC, according to Glassnode.

An ETF is an exchange-traded fund that allows investors to speculate on the price of an asset without having to hold any themselves. The Purpose Bitcoin ETF, a spot Bitcoin ETF, currently has about $1.68 billion in assets under management. No such spot Bitcoin ETF is currently available in the U.S. but the metrics show that investors are hungry for the Canadian product. 

Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode pointed out in its recent Week OnChain report that the crypto exchange outflow rate reached a 2022 high of 96,200 BTC per month.

The analytics provider commented on the juxtaposition of events concerning Bitcoin movements by saying:

“It is quite impressive to observe such strong outflows from exchanges (spot holdings), as well as inflows into both ETF products, DeFi applications, and on-chain accumulation wallets, despite the numerous macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds of recent months.”

Bitcoin accumulation has been strong since around mid-March. The biggest accumulators have been so-called shrimps and whales. Shrimps are investors who hold 0 to 100 BTC, while whales are those who hold 1,000 to 10,000 BTC.

Among the biggest recent buyers is Terra’s Luna Foundation Guard (LFG) which is on a mission to acquire $3 billion worth of BTC.

Related: Terra smash-buys $139M Bitcoin, wallet reaches 31,000 BTC

With just 2 million BTC left to be mined since the 19 millionth coin was mined on April 1, the scarcity of Bitcoin is becoming an issue of note as adoption and investment increase across nations, corporations, and individuals.

Glassnode concluded that “the scarcity and pristine nature of Bitcoin as collateral may well be returning to the foreground once again.”

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Here’s the Signal That Bitcoin (BTC) Is Headed for $500,000, According to Hedge Fund CEO Anthony Scaramucci

Hedge fund veteran Anthony Scaramucci says that Bitcoin (BTC) will hit a six-digit valuation within the next two years. In a new interview on CNBC, the CEO of global investment firm Skybridge Capital says that the skyrocketing growth in the number of Bitcoin wallets indicates that the flagship cryptocurrency is on track to $500,000. “According […]

The post Here’s the Signal That Bitcoin (BTC) Is Headed for $500,000, According to Hedge Fund CEO Anthony Scaramucci appeared first on The Daily Hodl.

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Crypto market selling pressure remains Asia dominated: Glassnode

Investors based in Asia have generally been sellers while those in the US and EU have been buyers for the past two years with only one short exception.

The Bitcoin network’s on-chain activity still appears to be in a bear market as U.S. and E.U. buyers are struggling to stay ahead of sellers based in Asia.

Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode’s latest report on the weekly activity of the Bitcoin (BTC) network shows that the price of the largest crypto by market cap has stayed firmly within the same tight $5,000 range from $37,680 to $42,312. However, on March 22 the asset saw a sudden spike in price which elevated prices to a two-week high.

Overall, the network is in a demonstrable lull according to Glassnode’s weekly review:

“Bitcoin network utilization and on-chain activity remains firmly within bear market territory, albeit is recovering.”

The research concluded that there is a distinct difference in the behavior of the average BTC investor based on their geography. Notably, U.S. and E.U.-based investors have tended to be buyers, whereas Asian investors have tended to be sellers. This tendency has remained consistent since March 2020 with the exception of last November when both sides were buying heavily.

Specifically, Glassnode researcher and report writer "Checkmate" pointed out that U.S. and E.U. investors have offered general bid support for the past two years with heavy buying between late 2020 and early 2021, while “both regions capitulated throughout May-July.” E.U. buyers are currently providing the largest amount of support.

Conversely, Glassnode reported that Asian markets have generally offered lower buying support through Q1-Q3 of 2021 and currently produce heavy selling pressure. However on March 22, co-founder of crypto investment firm Three Arrows Capital Su Zhu tweeted “Asia unironically max bidding BTC,” suggesting that the day’s short-term upswing in price was led by Asia-based traders.

Several on-chain metrics suggest that a bear market is well underway. The number of new entities — or new wallets that are not associated with existing wallets — has been in a gradual upswing since mid-2021. This is a bear market pattern that played out similarly from January 2018 through the first half of 2020. There are currently about 110,000 new entities created on the Bitcoin network per day.

In a bear market, new entity growth increases in a slow and steady way. In bullish periods, new entity growth experiences large spikes like in January 2018 and January 2021.

Transaction volumes of transfers valued at more than $1 million have continued to follow the steep downward trend since the peak last November. Glassnode cautioned that “a severe decline may signal a reduction in network utilization,” further indicating that we have entered a bear market.

Related: Bitcoin ‘could easily see $30K’ with stocks due to 30% drawdown in 2022 — Analyst

As reported last week, long-term holders (LTH) have increased selling pressure, but the overall LTH supply has remained stagnant because an equal proportion of short-term holder (STH) supply has converted, and that trend remains in effect. The LTH supply consists of coins that have not moved for at least 155 days.

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Over $268,000,000 in Bitcoin Moving to Long-Term Holders Signaling BTC Is Close to Bottom: Insights Firm

A leading crypto insights platform is revealing that an investor cohort with little to no history of spending their Bitcoin (BTC) is snapping up BTC to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars per day. Glassnode says in its latest newsletter that long-term holders (LTHs), or entities who are less likely to sell their […]

The post Over $268,000,000 in Bitcoin Moving to Long-Term Holders Signaling BTC Is Close to Bottom: Insights Firm appeared first on The Daily Hodl.

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Coinbase Has Its Lowest Balance of Bitcoin (BTC) Since Bull Market Top of 2017: Glassnode

A leading blockchain analytics firm says that US-based crypto exchange giant Coinbase currently holds fewer Bitcoin (BTC) than it has in years. According to new data from Glassnode, BTC held on Coinbase has dropped over 36% over the last two years. “Bitcoin held on Coinbase has declined by 375,000 BTC (36.6%) since the ATH [all-time […]

The post Coinbase Has Its Lowest Balance of Bitcoin (BTC) Since Bull Market Top of 2017: Glassnode appeared first on The Daily Hodl.

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Bitcoin risks final ‘bear market capitulation’ as rich investors continue BTC selloff — analyst

But more inexperienced investors have been choosing to become long-term Bitcoin holders, limiting sell-side risks below $30,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) could undergo one last bear market capitulation if "whales" — addresses that hold more than $1 million worth of Bitcoin — ramp up their selling pressure, according to on-chain analyst Willy Woo.

Room for another Bitcoin drop?

Woo assessed the average price at which short-term investors entered the Bitcoin market across history and charted the daily change in the value. That resulted in a cost basis, a metric that signals when "inexperienced" traders sell BTC to "experienced" traders during a BTC free fall, which typically coincides with the market bottom.

The cost basis underwent significant dips during the previous bear markets, also before strong accumulation took place, as shown in the chart below. Interestingly, Bitcoin's ongoing correction — from $69,000 in November 2021 to around $39,000 in March 2022 — has not resulted in a massive drop in its cost basis.

Bitcoin short-term holder cost basis change. Source: Willy Woo

"It’s inconclusive whether we have capitulated yet," said Woo, adding that "there’s room for another drop" based on the cost basis signal.

Whales have been selling their BTC

Woo's outlook appeared in line with the rising speculations about Bitcoin's next big drop. For instance, Christopher Yates, the editor at AcheronInsights, said BTC's price could crash to $30,000 due to the "deteriorating macro environment."

"What makes me increasingly wary that the low is not yet in for 2022 is the fact that we are yet to see a capitulation style spike in volume that has occurred at all the recent lows in late 2019, early 2020 and mid-2021," Yates wrote in his latest BTC analysis, adding:

"Though not a prerequisite for a market bottom, such a capitulation-like spike in volume helps to give us confidence for when such a bottom may be near."

Data resource Ecoinometrics provided evidence of the demand gap between small and rich Bitcoin investors in its latest weekly report. For example, it noted that addresses that hold as much as 10 BTC have been accumulating the coins in the past 30 days.

Bitcoin on-chain accumulation and distribution. Source: Ecoinometrics

Conversely, those that hold more than 10 BTC have been distributing them.

Woo also noted that Bitcoin whales have been selling off their stash, thus maintaining the downward pressure on price. That means small investors have been absorbing the sell-side pressure, and so far preventing Bitcoin price from dipping below $30,000.

Additionally, Ecoinometrics analyst Nick, noted that the ongoing accumulation trend is "as sluggish as it gets," adding that it could grow weaker after the Federal Reserve's expected rate hike in March to tame rising inflation. Excerpts:

"To summarize, the Fed is in control. If they mess up their tightening cycle, all risk assets will tank. Bitcoin currently trades like a risk asset, so it is unlikely to be an exception."

Ecoinometrics and Willy Woo's analysis also show that inexperienced investors have not been dumping their coins, thus becoming long-term holders (LTH) in the process. 

Bitcoin is "most deflationary" in history

Meanwhile, another metric dubbed "LTH Inflation/Deflation ratio" is also corroborating the aforementioned theory, according to ARK Invest on-chain analyst David Puell. 

In detail, Bitcoin inflation points to LTH releasing their BTC into circulation faster than the natural sell-side of miners. Conversely, deflation suggests that LTHs have absorbed a proportional amount of the miner sell-side every day alongside the outstanding total supply.

Related: Crypto vs. physical: Musk-Saylor inflation debate boils down to scarcity

The attached chart below shows the LTH Inflation/Deflation ratio showing the period of inflationary outcomes flashed in red and deflationary readings in green.

Bitcoin LTH market inflation/deflation ratio. Source: ARK, Glassnode

"Our analysis suggests that Bitcoin, proportional to supply held by long-term holders (LTH), is at its most deflationary in history," noted David Puell, an on-chain researcher at ARK Invest.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Short term Bitcoin buyers transition to long term holders: Glassnode

Although long-term coin selling saw a marked increase last week, HODLing is still the preferred strategy as more of the short-term supply is becoming long-term supply.

Over the past week, long-term holders of Bitcoin increased their spending to a level that suggests de-risking from the market, but hodling remains the predominant investing strategy.

Uncertain macroeconomic headwinds are likely to have precipitated the increase in the sell-offs last week by long-term holders and shaken some short-term holders out of their positions according to data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode. Last week, coins older than six months accounted for 5% of total spending, which is a level not seen since last November.

Short-term holders (STH) who have held coins for less than 155 days continue to decline in number, but not necessarily due to selling. Glassnode suggests that while it is generally more common for STH to sell, the recent decline in STH supply “can only occur when large portions of the coin supply are dormant and crossing the 155-day age threshold, becoming Long-Term Holder supply.”

Bitcoin (BTC) accumulation patterns do not suggest bear market behaviors yet as overall sell pressure remains consistent. Also, more than 75% of the BTC circulating supply has been dormant for at least six months despite the recent uptick in selling. Glassnode says this is an indication that investors are still predominantly hodlers.

Long-term Bitcoin holders increased selling last week. - Glassnode

Glassnode noted that the sell-offs have been into a relatively strong market that has avoided any significant moves up or down and has remained range-bound for most of this yea. This is thought to be staving off a capitulation event which often comes at the end of a bear cycle. There has not been a significant capitulation since last May when BTC price crashed from $58,771 to $34,977 over the course of a 15-day period according to CoinGecko.

The period from the May capitulation event until October marked the last time BTC accumulation resembled bear market behavior.

BTC accumulation patterns are still above bear market trends. - Glassnode

The profit/loss ratio of STH supply is still near the all-time low set in mid-2021. Currently, 82% of STH coins are being held at a loss which Glassnode states is an indication of the later stage of a bear market when savvy investors send their coins to cold storage to lie in wait for the return to positive profit margins.

Short-term holders are in near-record losses. - Glassnode

Related: BTC price struggles below $39K ahead of expected interest rate hike by the Fed

As noted in last week’s BTC market update, exchange outflows remain quite high. Coinbase saw its largest outflows in nearly five years last week with 31,130 BTC leaving the exchange. These outflows illustrate Bitcoin’s increasing reputation as a must-have in a modern investor’s portfolio, and a further reluctance to liquidate in a hurry.

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The post Over $26,000,000,000 Worth of ETH Now Staked in Ethereum 2.0 Deposit Contract: Analytics Firm Glassnode appeared first on The Daily Hodl.

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