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Crypto Biz: Is Goldman Sachs the ultimate crypto contrarian?

Is the U.S. investment bank looking to buy up distressed crypto firms amid the bear market?

One of the oldest pieces of contrarian investment wisdom is to buy when there is blood in the streets. If it were that easy, crypto investors would be euphoric at all the buy opportunities right now. If you’re rattled by the bear market, which has been especially brutal even by crypto standards, don’t beat yourself up over it. Cryptocurrency is still an unproven asset class that operates in the shadow of regulators. I don’t blame you for not buying an asset class that’s down over 70% this year. 

With those caveats in mind, a quiet herd of smart money investors believes that now is the best time to invest in Bitcoin (BTC), digital assets and crypto infrastructure companies — even after the monumental collapse of FTX. Although nothing is confirmed yet, United States investment giant Goldman Sachs is also signaling that crypto is evenly priced after the year-long bear market.

This week’s Crypto Biz explores Goldman’s intrigue with crypto, a new cold wallet design from Ledger, Blockstream’s plunging valuation amid the bear market and the latest news surrounding Three Arrows Capital.

Goldman Sachs reportedly looking to buy crypto firms after FTX collapse

Goldman Sachs’ embrace of crypto appears to be growing, even during the bear market, as the U.S. investment behemoth looks poised to acquire distressed firms in the wake of FTX’s collapse. In an interview with Reuters, Goldman executive Mathew McDermott said crypto companies are “priced more sensibly” today than they were over a year ago and that calls to regulate the industry will ultimately be a positive catalyst for adoption. Although FTX has become the “poster child” for crypto, and not in a good way, the underlying technology behind the industry “continues to perform,” McDermott said.

‘Father of the iPod’ helps Ledger create new cold crypto wallet

The collapse of centralized platforms has been a boon for Ledger, the hardware company known for providing cold-storage crypto devices. After an influx of new orders for its Ledger Nano devices, the hardware company announced this week that it has partnered with Tony Fadell, the inventor of the iPod Classic, to design its newest wallet device. The new wallet, known as Ledger Stax, is said to be about the size of a credit card and features a large E Ink display, wireless charging and Bluetooth support. Remember: Not your keys, not your Bitcoin.

Blockstream raises funds for mining at 70% lower company valuation

Bitcoin infrastructure company Blockstream is reportedly looking to raise fresh financing — but it, too, acknowledges that won’t be easy during a bear market. The Adam Back-led company is prepared to raise capital at a valuation of less than $1 billion, which is 70% below its $3.2 billion valuation in August 2021. According to Back, the additional financing will go toward scaling the company’s mining capacity. As Cointelegraph reported, Blockstream is working with Jack Dorsey’s Block to develop a solar-powered Bitcoin mining facility in Texas.

3AC subpoenas issued as dispute grows over claims of Terraform dump

The disgraced founders of Three Arrows Capital, Su Zhu and Kyle Davies, will be required to give up financial information related to their failed hedge fund, a federal judge has decreed. The approved subpoenas to be delivered to the founders require that they give up any “recorded information, including books, documents, records, and papers” in their custody relating to 3AC’s financial affairs. Once valued at $10 billion, 3AC essentially blew up in the wake of Terra Luna’s infamous death spiral earlier this year. Arrogant as they once were, Zhu and Davies were exposed for a series of horrendous trades that eventually bankrupted their firm.

Before you go: Bitcoin hits $17K — Bull trap or relief rally incoming?

Bitcoin’s price has been fairly stable over the past few weeks, even as the FTX contagion continued to spread. The flagship digital asset scraped above $17,000 earlier this week, raising cautious optimism that the worst of the market downturn has passed. In this week’s Market Report, I sat down with Marcel Pechman and Joe Hall to discuss whether BTC can expect a relief rally soon. I also broke down the so-called “Santa Claus” rally, which many expect to play out later this month. You can watch the full replay below.

Crypto Biz is your weekly pulse of the business behind blockchain and crypto delivered directly to your inbox every Thursday.

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Banking Giant Goldman Sachs on the Lookout for Crypto Bargains Following FTX Collapse: Report

Banking Giant Goldman Sachs on the Lookout for Crypto Bargains Following FTX Collapse: Report

Financial giant Goldman Sachs is reportedly bargain hunting in the crypto space after the FTX collapse soured market sentiment. According to a new Reuters report, Goldman Sachs plans to spend “tens of millions of dollars” on crypto investments or purchases. They are currently performing their due diligence on a number of different crypto firms, which […]

The post Banking Giant Goldman Sachs on the Lookout for Crypto Bargains Following FTX Collapse: Report appeared first on The Daily Hodl.

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Goldman Sachs reportedly looking to buy crypto firms after FTX collapse

Goldman Sachs executive Mathew McDermott said that their firm is already doing its due diligence on some crypto firms.

As crypto company valuations are affected by the recent FTX debacle, financial services firm Goldman Sachs is looking to swoop in and invest millions to purchase or invest in crypto firms while the prices are low.

In an interview with mainstream media outlet Reuters, Mathew McDermott, an executive at Goldman Sachs, reportedly said that big banks are seeing opportunities in the space as the FTX collapse highlighted a need for more regulation within the industry.

The executive added that the firm is currently seeing opportunities that are "priced more sensibly" and are already doing its due diligence on some crypto companies.

Commenting on the FTX debacle, McDermott also noted that in terms of sentiment, the market encountered setbacks. However, the traditional finance executive highlighted that though FTX became a "poster child" of the space, the underlying tech behind the industry "continues to perform."

The FTX liquidation crisis and bankruptcy saga have turned the crypto space upside down since the beginning of November. The collapse of FTX continues to have a domino effect, affecting crypto-focused companies that have some exposure to the embattled firm. Because of this, institutional investors like Goldman are looking for opportunities to buy and invest at lower prices while the effects of FTX are lowering valuations.

Related: Goldman Sachs creates digital asset taxonomy system for subscribing investors

Meanwhile, a digital bank based in the United Kingdom has banned crypto purchases for its users. Because of this, its customers will be unable to buy Bitcoin (BTC) or other cryptos. Apart from this, users will also be unable to receive transfers from crypto exchange platforms.

While the FTX collapse set the space back in terms of interest, some institutional players are working to boost institutional adoption. On Dec. 6, crypto firm SEBA Bank partnered with financial services firm HashKey Group to speed up institutional adoption for crypto in Hong Kong and Switzerland.

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Goldman Sachs Launches Data Service to Help Investors Analyze Crypto Markets

Goldman Sachs Launches Data Service to Help Investors Analyze Crypto MarketsGlobal investment bank Goldman Sachs has launched a new data service in collaboration with MSCI and Coin Metrics to help investors analyze crypto markets. The new system is “designed to provide a consistent, standardized way to help market participants view and analyze the digital assets ecosystem,” Goldman detailed. Goldman Sachs’ New Crypto Classification System Global […]

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Wall Street Giant Goldman Sachs Partners With Coin Metrics To Create New Crypto Classification System

Wall Street Giant Goldman Sachs Partners With Coin Metrics To Create New Crypto Classification System

Goldman Sachs is introducing a framework designed to set standards in the crypto assets market by classifying digital coins based on their primary use and underlying protocol. In a statement, the Wall Street titan says it is launching the new crypto classification system datonomy in partnership with crypto intelligence platform Coin Metrics and global index […]

The post Wall Street Giant Goldman Sachs Partners With Coin Metrics To Create New Crypto Classification System appeared first on The Daily Hodl.

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3 striking similarities with past Bitcoin price bottoms — But there’s a catch

The fundamentals accompanying the previous Bitcoin bear markets are entirely different from 2022, however, putting the BTC price recovery at risk.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been consolidating inside the $18,000–$20,000 price range since mid-June, pausing a strong bear market that began after the price peaked at $69,000 in November 2021.

Many analysts have looked at Bitcoin’s sideways trend as a sign of a potential market bottom, drawing comparisons from the cryptocurrency’s previous bear markets that show similar price behaviors preceding sharp bullish reversals.

Here are three strikingly similar trends that preceded past market bottoms.

2018’s sideways trend for BTC price

The 2018’s Bitcoin bear market serves as a major cue for a potential market bottom in 2022 if one looks at its eerily similar price trends and indicators.

One of the key indicators is Bitcoin’s 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave in the chart below). In 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin entered a long period of sideways consolidation after closing below its 200-week EMA.

BTC/USD weekly price chart featuring 2018 bear market fractal. Source: TradingView

Except in 2018, Bitcoin’s sideways trend lasted for 1 days, with the price reclaiming its 200-week EMA as support, followed by moves toward approximately $14,000 in June 2019. In 2022, the sideways trend entered its 19th day on Oct. 28 but awaits a clear breakout above the 200-week EMA near $26,000.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) hints at a potential bottom formation. In 2018, the RSI’s drop into its oversold territory (below 30) was followed by the BTC’s price sideways trend and eventually by a fully-fledged bullish reversal.

That is halfway similar to Bitcoin’s RSI trend in 2022, given it slipped below 30 in June and followed up with Bitcoin’s sideways price action between $18,000 and $20,000 levels. That could follow up with a bullish reversal phase if the 2018 fractal is repeated.

2013–2015 bull trap support

Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market also shares similarities to the price trends witnessed in 2013–2015, comprising a descending trendline resistance, a weak bull trap support trendline and a horizontal support level.

BTC/USD weekly price chart featuring 2014–2015 bear market fractal. Source: TradingView

BTC’s price dropped 82% from its December 2013 top of around $1,200.

In doing so, Bitcoin attempted to close thrice above its descending trendline resistance (marked with A, B and C in the chart above). Simultaneously, the price drew limited support from another descending trendline, resulting in bull trap rallies.

Bitcoin eventually bottomed at a horizontal trendline support near $200, following it up with a strong breakout above the descending trendline resistance, reaching the 0.236 Fib line of $429. By December 2017, its price had reached nearly $20,000.

Bitcoin 2013–2015 bear market on weekly chart (zoomed version). Source: TradingView

In 2022, Bitcoin’s price has ticked all the boxes regarding mirroring its 2013–2015 bear market, except for the breakout above the descending trendline resistance.

Bitcoin 2022 bear market on weekly chart (zoomed version). Source: TradingView

Thus, BTC/USD could see a rally toward $30,000, the 0.236 Fib line, in early 2023 if the breakout occurs.

Bitcoin MVRV-Z score

From an on-chain analysis perspective, Bitcoin’s 2022 downtrend has made it as undervalued as it was at the end of previous bear markets.

For instance, Bitcoin’s Market Value-to-Realized Value (MVRV) Z-score, which measures the coin’s over/undervalued relative to its “fair value,” has dropped into the region that has coincided with previous bear market bottoms, as shown below.

Bitcoin MVRV-Z Score vs. market bottoms. Source: Glassnode

The on-chain indicator increases Bitcoin’s possibility to bottom inside the $18,000–$20,000 region — in line with the two fractals discussed above.

Different this time? 

Unlike previous years, Bitcoin’s 2022 bear market occurred primarily due to the United States Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes in response to persistently higher inflation

The U.S. central banks tightening measures removed excess cash from the economy, thus leaving investors with little capital to speculate on risk-on assets. As a result, Bitcoin fell alongside U.S. stocks with a strong correlation coefficient of 0.80 as of Oct. 28. 

Related: Bitcoin mirrors 2020 pre-breakout, but analysts at odds whether this time is different

Previously, the Bitcoin market recovered weeks or months after its correlation with U.S. stocks dropped below zero. The chart below shows four instances from 2014–2016, 2017–2018, 2019–2020 and 2021.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

Therefore, Bitcoin carries risks of bearish continuation if its correlation with U.S. stocks remains positive.

Meanwhile, over 2,000 CME Bitcoin options contracts expiring by the end of this year show a net bias toward put positions. In other words, traders have been anticipating more downside for BTC price.

CME Bitcoin options position distribution. Source: Ecoinometrics

“Traders see the possibility of Bitcoin sliding towards $10,000 to $15,000 but anything lower than that is given a low probability,” said Nick, an analyst at data resource Ecoinometircs.

As Cointelegraph reported, the $10,000–$14,000 area remains an area of interest for a possible price bottom if a breakdown occurs from the current levels. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Goldman Sachs CEO Sees Good Chance of Recession — Advises Investors to Be Cautious, Prepare for More Difficult Environment

Goldman Sachs CEO Sees Good Chance of Recession — Advises Investors to Be Cautious, Prepare for More Difficult EnvironmentThe CEO of global investment bank Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, sees a good chance of a U.S. recession. He stressed that the “environment heading into 2023 is one that you’ve got to be cautious and prepared for.” Goldman Sachs CEO Warns About U.S. Recession, Advises Investors to Be Cautious Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon warned […]

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Chinese Central Bank Says It Will Prioritize Stabilizing Currency After Yuan Plunges to 14-Year Low Versus USD

Chinese Central Bank Says It Will Prioritize Stabilizing Currency After Yuan Plunges to 14-Year Low Versus USDMoments after the Chinese yuan’s onshore exchange rate versus the U.S. dollar slumped to 7.2458 per dollar, the Peoples Bank of China responded by stating that it will prioritize stabilizing the currency. Similar to other currencies that have been depreciating against the dollar, the yuan has now lost 12% versus the greenback so far this […]

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Goldman Sachs’ bearish macro outlook puts Bitcoin at risk of crashing to $12K

Bitcoin derivatives data also shows sentiment shifting in favor of a massive crash below $20,000, the current psychological support.

A sequence of macro warnings coming out of the Goldman Sachs camp puts Bitcoin (BTC) at a risk of crashing to $12,000.

Bitcoin in "bottom phase?"

A team of Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius raised their prediction for the speed of Federal Reserve benchmark rate hikes. They noted that the U.S. central bank would increase rates by 0.75% in September and 0.5% in November, up from their previous forecast of 0.5% and 0.25%, respectively.

Fed's rate-hike path has played a key role in determining Bitcoin's price trends in 2022. The period of higher lending rates — from near zero to the 2.25-2.5% range now — has prompted investors to rotate out of riskier assets and seek shelter in safer alternatives like cash.

Bitcoin has dropped by almost 60% year-to-date and is now wobbling around its psychological support of $20,000. Some analysts, including a pseudonymous trader Doctor Profit, believe BTC's price has entered the bottom phase at current levels. However, the trader warned:

"Please consider FEDs next decisions. 0.75% [rate hike] already priced in, 1% and we see blood."
BTC/USD price performance comparison between 2012-2016 and 2020-2022. Source: Doctor Profit/TradingView

On the other hand, Bitcoin's consistently positive correlation with the U.S. stock market, particularly the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, poses deeper correction risks.

Sharon Bell, a strategist at Goldman Sachs, suggests the recent rallies in the stock market could be bull traps, echoing her firm's warning that equities could crash by 26% if the Fed gets more aggressive with its rate increases to fight inflation.

Interestingly, the warnings coincide with a recent rise in Bitcoin short positions held by institutional investors, according to CME data highlighted in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) weekly report.

CME Bitcoin derivatives held by smart money. Source: CFTC/Ecoinometrics

"Definitely a sign that some people are counting on a risk asset meltdown this fall," noted Nick, an analyst at data resource Ecoinometrics.

Options consensus see BTC at $12K

Bitcoin options expiring at the end of 2022 show most traders betting on the BTC price dropping all the way down to the $10-000-12,000 area.

BTC options open interest by strike price. Source: Coinglass

Overall, the call-put open interest ratio was 1.90 on Sep. 18, with call options for the $45,000 strike price carrying the maximum weight. But strike prices between $10,000 and $23,000 showed at least four puts for every three calls — which is perhaps a more realistic, interim evaluation of market sentiment.

Related: Tired of losing money? Here are 2 reasons why retail investors always lose

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's price could drop by roughly 30% to $13,500 as the price forms a convincing inverse up-and-handle pattern.

BTC/USD daily price chart with inverse cup-and-handle breakdown setup. Source: TradingView

Conversely, a decisive rally above the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near $21,250 could invalidate this bearish setup, positioning BTC for a rally toward $25,000 as its next psychological upside target.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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Bitcoin ‘bear flag’ breakdown targets $15K as US dollar hits 20-year high

BTC is losing its safe haven status to the dollar, with mutual funds increasing their cash holdings by $208 billion in the first half of 2022.

On Sept. 6, Bitcoin (BTC) price crumbled below $20,000 and the asset looks ready to undergo further decline in September due to a strong U.S. dollar and an ominous technical analysis pattern.

Bitcoin eyes $15,000 next

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin risks dropping to $15,000 or below in the coming weeks after breaking out of its prevailing "bear flag" pattern.

For the unversed, bear flags form when the price consolidates higher inside a parallel, ascending range after a strong downtrend. They typically resolve after the price breaks below the lower trendline and falls by as much as the previous downtrend's length.

BTC/USD daily price chart featuring 'bull flag' pattern. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin has entered the so-called breakdown stage of its bear flag pattern, with its downside target lurking south of $15,000, as illustrated in the chart above.

Cash is king

The prospects of a weaker Bitcoin heading further into 2022 are growing mainly because of a worsening economic backdrop.

Bitcoin's 60% year-to-date price decline is one of the unfortunate consequences of the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy to bring inflation down to 2% from its current 8.5% level. In detail, the U.S. central bank has raised its benchmark rates to the 2.25% - 2.5% range via four consecutive hikes in 2022.

The hikes have boosted the appetite for cash-based securities over riskier assets like Bitcoin.

For instance, U.S. banks with savings accounts offer clients an annual percentage yield of 2% or more from around 0.5% at the start of this year, BankRate.com data shows.

Meanwhile, a Goldman Sachs analysis shows that mutual funds with $2.7 trillion in equity under management have increased their cash holdings by $208 billion in the first half of 2022, the fastest allocation rate to date.

Mutual funds asset rotations noted in HY1/2022. Source: Goldman Sachs

The broader demand for cash has helped the U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a pool of top foreign currencies, climb to 110.55 on Sept. 6, its highest level since 2002.

DXY daily price chart. Source: TradingView

As a result, cash has drastically outperformed stocks, Bitcoin, Ethereum, copper, lumber and other assets in 2022.

Related: A range-break from Bitcoin could trigger buying in ADA, ATOM, FIL and EOS this week

This trend may continue, given that the Federal Reserve plans to continue its rate-hiking spree, according to Jerome Powell's statements at the recent Jackson Hole symposium.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.

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