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5 of 7 on-chain indicators suggest the bull run is just beginning

On-chain indicators such as the Bitcoin MVRV Z score, Puell Multiple and HODL Waves paint a bullish picture for Bitcoin investors.

Despite crypto markets having consolidated sideways for the past three months, at least five on-chain indicators suggest the bull market may just be getting started, according to an analyst. 

Since the end of February, crypto’s total market capitalization has been range-bound at around $2.5 trillion. Market observers are conflicted about whether the cycle is already over or not.

These five on-chain indicators, as highlighted by analyst “ELI5 of TLDR” in a post on X on May 19, suggest it is just beginning.

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Crypto Analyst Predicts Incoming Bitcoin Parabolic Rally, Says BTC at Point Where Things Get Exciting

Where’s the recession? These 3 economic indicators can alert investors to a market downturn

Analysts have called for a U.S. recession all year, but stocks continue to creep higher. Here are three metrics investors can watch to know if an economic downturn is coming.

Inflation came down a lot faster than most investors and analysts anticipated, reaching 3% in June. The recession that most analysts predicted is nowhere to be seen, according to the 3.6% unemployment rate nearing a 50-year low and the S&P 500 Index showing a 19% gain year-to-date.

While the current market performance may lead investors to believe that a recession has been avoided, there are three metrics that have been able to consistently predict recessions over time. These leading economic indicators are key economic variables that tend to move ahead of changes in overall economic activity, providing an early warning system for changes in the business cycle. Let’s dig into three of these indicators and explain how investors can interpret them.

Yield curve inversion

The yield curve represents the relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates on government bonds. Normally, long-term bonds have higher yields than short-term bonds to compensate investors for the risk of holding their money for a more extended period.

Historically, an inverted yield curve has often preceded recessions. This indicator suggests that investors are worried about the near future and expect interest rates to fall due to a potential economic slowdown.

U.S. 10-year yield spread vs. 2-year. Source: TradingView

The two-year Treasury yield is currently 3.25%, while the 10-year Treasury yield is 2.95%, typical of periods ahead of a recession. However, that has been the case since September 2022, and historically there’s a nine- to 24-month lag before the economic contraction takes place.

Leading economic indicators (LEI)

The Conference Board, a nonprofit research organization, compiles a set of economic indicators known as the leading economic indicators (LEI). These indicators include a variety of data points, such as building permits, stock prices, consumer expectations, average weekly hours worked and more.

U.S. consumer confidence index. Source: The Conference Board

When these indicators start to decline or show a pattern of negative movement, it can signal an impending recession. The consumer confidence index for July hit a reading of 117, the highest level in two years. Moreover, according to The Conference Board, the probability of a recession in the next six months is 25%, down from 30% in June.

Purchasing managers’ index (PMI)

The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment. A PMI of more than 50 represents an expansion, while readings under 50 represent a contraction. The PMI is seen as a very reliable tool, as it provides timely and accurate data on the manufacturing sector.

The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.0 in July 2023, down from 46.9 in June and 48.4 in May. This is the lowest reading since December 2022, and it indicates that the manufacturing sector is in a state of contraction. In short, the global economy is slowing down, and this is having a negative impact on demand for exports from the United States.

The Federal Reserve is in a tight spot

The U.S. economy is currently presenting mixed signals. Despite a robust consumer demand underpinned by rising wages and low unemployment, industrial growth indicators have remained weak throughout 2023. Moreover, bond markets suggest market reluctance to add risk-on positions.

This hesitancy is due to the Federal Reserve’s anticipated monetary policy tightening and further expected interest rate hikes for 2023. These different signals show the tricky situation for those in charge of the interest rates.

If the Fed tightens policy too much, it could slow down the economy too quickly, possibly leading to a recession. On the other hand, if the Fed is too lenient, it could trigger high inflation, which erodes purchasing power and can destabilize the currency.

Related: Bitcoin price is down, but data signals that $30K and above is the path of least resistance

For cryptocurrency investors, there’s an additional variable that further complicates the analysis. Despite the long-term high correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and the stock market, the past eight months have displayed periods of inverse trend, meaning the assets moved in distinct directions.

S&P 500 futures 50-day correlation vs. Bitcoin/USD index. Source: TradingView

Amid crypto market uncertainty, the Fed’s decisions are key to revealing economic confidence. Increasing interest rates signifies stability, potentially benefiting cryptocurrency markets in the short term, whereas rate cuts may indicate economic concerns, possibly affecting risk-on markets in general. Therefore, tracking the Fed provides timely investor guidance in uncertain economic times.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

Crypto Analyst Predicts Incoming Bitcoin Parabolic Rally, Says BTC at Point Where Things Get Exciting

Bitcoin price more correlated to FTX developments than macro events: Research

While inflation has an effect on the price of Bitcoin, researchers were bewildered by bitcoins resilience to other macroeconomic factors.

The collapse of FTX and related developments did more to pull up or push down the price of Bitcoin (BTC) throughout Q4, compared to macroeconomic events such as rate hikes, according to research.

In a “State of Bitcoin Q4 2022” report published on Feb. 10, Messari research analysts Sami Kassab and Chris Collar found that the collapse of the exchange resulted in a 25% decrease in the price of Bitcoin.

The report highlighted that changes to the federal funds rate had a much smaller effect on the price of Bitcoin, even after 75 and 50 basis point hikes.

It also pointed out that active wallets increased by 2% compared to the previous quarter as Bitcoin was moved out of centralized exchanges to self-custodial wallets during the period

A research paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York earlier this week came to a similar conclusion.

The Feb. 8 paper looked at the links between macroeconomic news and the price of Bitcoin, finding that inflation was the only variable to have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin.

The paper’s authors — research analysts Gianluca Benigo and Carlo Rosa — compiled data from Jan. 2017 to Dec. 2022 looking at the impact of macroeconomic news on various asset classes.

The study took into account many macroeconomic news categories, including inflation, the real economy, monetary policy news, and forward-looking indicators.

Related: Bitcoin price hits 2-week low amid warning $22.5K loss means fresh dip

The authors expressed surprise at their findings, concluding:

“The key result is that, unlike other U.S. asset classes, Bitcoin is orthogonal to monetary and macroeconomic news. This disconnect is puzzling as unexpected changes in discount rates should, in principle, affect the price of Bitcoin even when interpreting Bitcoin as a purely speculative asset.”

Despite the U.S. Federal Reserve continuing to raise rates at a record pace, Bitcoin has had a stellar start to 2023, increasing by just under a third from $16,557 to $21,888 according to Yahoo Finance.

Crypto Analyst Predicts Incoming Bitcoin Parabolic Rally, Says BTC at Point Where Things Get Exciting

After Mocking the Price Model, Crypto Advocates Discuss Bitcoin’s Rainbow Chart Reintegration

After Mocking the Price Model, Crypto Advocates Discuss Bitcoin’s Rainbow Chart ReintegrationOn a few occasions last year, crypto advocates discussed how a number of price models, leveraged to help predict the future value of bitcoin, ended up failing. However, since bitcoin’s value has increased by 36% over the last month, the price has entered the darkest band of the rainbow chart after breaking below the rainbow […]

Crypto Analyst Predicts Incoming Bitcoin Parabolic Rally, Says BTC at Point Where Things Get Exciting

Huobi Layoffs Spark Controversy and Speculation, Justin Sun Claims Everything Is Fine

Huobi Layoffs Spark Controversy and Speculation, Justin Sun Claims Everything Is FineThe cryptocurrency exchange Huobi is laying off 20% of its employees, according to multiple reports over the past two days. However, Huobi’s advisor Justin Sun, the founder of Tron, told the South China Morning Post that the layoff reports were untrue. A Huobi spokesperson later confirmed that the staff cuts are true and Huobi plans […]

Crypto Analyst Predicts Incoming Bitcoin Parabolic Rally, Says BTC at Point Where Things Get Exciting

Crypto Supporters Sift Through the Graveyard of Technical Indicators That Failed to Predict Bitcoin’s Bottom

Crypto Supporters Sift Through the Graveyard of Technical Indicators That Failed to Predict Bitcoin’s BottomAs the end of 2022 approaches, a great number of bitcoin proponents are questioning whether or not the bottom is in as far as the official end of the crypto winter is concerned. The current bitcoin bear run just entered the longest bottom formation since the 2013-2015 bitcoin bear market. Moreover, analysts note that most […]

Crypto Analyst Predicts Incoming Bitcoin Parabolic Rally, Says BTC at Point Where Things Get Exciting

Bitcoin Mining Revenue in Russia Grew 18 Times in 4 Years Before ‘Worst Quarter’

Bitcoin Mining Revenue in Russia Grew 18 Times in 4 Years Before ‘Worst Quarter’Russian revenues from the minting of bitcoin saw a multifold increase in the past few years before declining significantly since this past spring. The findings come from a new study which also established that the sector was growing during both ups and downs in the crypto market. $1.4 Billion in Turnover Expected From Russia’s Bitcoin […]

Crypto Analyst Predicts Incoming Bitcoin Parabolic Rally, Says BTC at Point Where Things Get Exciting

New to crypto trading? Here are 5 tips on how to start 2022 on the right foot

Trading stocks and cryptocurrencies can be complicated, but here are a few tips on how to get started.

It doesn’t matter how experienced you are at trading because nothing can be done to protect a person against the might of cryptocurrencies’ price swings. Currently, Bitcoin’s (BTC) volatility, the standard measure for daily fluctuations, stands at 64% annualized. As a comparison, the same metric for the S&P 500 stands at 17%, while the volatility spec for WTI crude oil is at 54%.

However, it is possible to avoid the psychological impact of an unexpected 25% intraday price swing by following five basic rules. Fortunately, these tactics do not require advanced tools or large sums of money to hold through periods of high volatility.

Plan to refrain from withdrawing money in less than 2 years

Let’s assume that you’ve got $5,000 to invest, but there’s a good possibility that you might need at least $2,000 of that amount within 12 months for travel or car maintenance or some other task.

The worst thing you can do is do a 100% allocation in crypto because you might need to sell your position at the worst time ever, maybe at a cycle bottom. Even if one plans to use the proceeds in decentralized finance (DeFi) pools, there’s always the risk of impairment losses or hacks that compromise access to the funds.

In short, any funds allocated to cryptocurrencies should have a two-year vesting period.

Always dollar cost average

Even professional traders get swept away by the fear of missing out (FOMO), ceding to an urgency to build a position as quickly as possible. But, if everyone is getting 50% and higher returns consistently and even meme coins are posting stellar returns, how can you stand aside and merely watch?

The DCA strategy consists of buying the same dollar amount every week or month, regardless of the market’s movements; for example, buying $200 every Monday afternoon for a year removes the anxiety and pressure caused by the constant need to decide whether to add a position.

Avoid buying all the positions in less than three or four weeks at all costs. Remember, the crypto adoption rate is still in its infancy.

Don’t use too many indicators when conducting analysis

There are countless technical indicators, including the moving average, Fibonacci retracement levels, Bollinger Bands, the directional movement index, the Ichimoku Cloud, the parabolic SAR, the relative strength index and more. If you consider that each one has multiple setups, there are endless possibilities for tracking these indicators.

The best traders are experienced enough to know that reading the market correctly is more important than picking the best indicator. Some prefer to track correlations to traditional markets, while others focus exclusively on crypto price charts. There’s no right and wrong here, except for trying to track five different indicators simultaneously.

Markets are dynamic, and in crypto, that is especially true considering how fast things change.

Learn when to step aside

Eventually, you will read the market incorrectly while finding bottoms or altcoin seasons. Every trader gets it wrong sometimes and there’s no need to compensate by immediately increasing the bet size to recoup the losses. That is precisely the opposite of what one should be doing.

Whenever you catch a “bad break,” step aside for a couple of days. The psychological impact of losses is a heavy burden and will negatively impact your capacity to think clearly. Even if a clear opportunity arises, let that one slide. Go for a walk, or try to organize your life aside from trading.

Truly successful traders are not the most gifted, but those who survive the longest.

Continue to invest in winners

This might be the hardest lesson of them all because investors have a natural tendency to take profit on our winning positions. As discussed previously, crypto market volatility is extremely high, so aiming for a 30% gain will not cover your previous (or future) losses.

Instead of selling winners, traders should be buying more of those. Of course, one should not neglect the market data or the overall sentiment but if your expectations remain bullish, then consider adding to the position until the overall market signals some form of weakness.

One will eventually catch a 300% or 500% gain by being brave and holding on to the most profitable positions. These are the returns you expected when entering such a risky market, so don’t be afraid when they pop up.

Every rule is meant to be broken

If a roadmap to cryptocurrency trading success existed, many people would have found it after many years and the returns would quickly fade. That is why you should always be ready to break your own rules every once in a while.

Do not follow investment advice from influencers or experienced money managers blindly. Everyone has their own risk appetite and capacity to add positions after an unexpected setback. But, more importantly, make sure to take care of yourself along the way!

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Crypto Analyst Predicts Incoming Bitcoin Parabolic Rally, Says BTC at Point Where Things Get Exciting

Here’s how altcoin futures volumes and the USD lending rate signal market crashes

Data shows that the dollar lending rate and futures volumes of select altcoins can be tracked to pinpoint overheated markets before a crash.

Every once in a while, a new indicator pops out that can be used to detect price tops and bottoms in the market. This assertion is even more evident in cryptocurrencies because the data comes from exchanges and on-chain data extracted from the blockchain.

These indicators are constantly monitored and commented on by analysts and traders. Some of the lesser-known metrics use data from altcoin derivatives volumes and the Bitfinex U.S. dollar lending rate.

Altcoin volumes in futures markets indicate overheat

The futures contract volume is usually triple that of, or even five times higher than, regular spot markets. This phenomenon is not exclusive to cryptocurrency markets, as these contracts allow leverage trading, but the comparison isn't exactly fair because the contracts are synthetic products, while Bitcoin (BTC) is digitally scarce.

By measuring the market share of Bitcoin, Ether (ETH) and the remaining altcoins, it is possible to analyze exactly what traders are focusing on.

Bitcoin, Ether and altcoins futures volume. Source: Coinalyze

The chart above shows that Bitcoin and Ether represented 65% to 85% of the aggregate volume in March. Still, as altcoins gained relevance, this figure dropped to 45% for the first time ever on April 6. 11 days later (April 17), the total cryptocurrency market capitalization tanked 20%.

This phenomenon repeated itself on May 6 as the Bitcoin and Ether market share in derivatives volumes reached a historical low at 39%. On May 10, the total market capitalization dropped 12%. It seems like too much of a coincidence, and it makes sense to consider whether the market overheats whenever the market share held by altcoin derivatives spikes.

There are multiple reasons to relate a sharp increase in altcoin volume to excessive optimism. For example, changing focus from Bitcoin and Ether indicates that investors no longer see much upside and are seeking options elsewhere.

The Bitfinex U.S. dollar lending rate usually spikes ahead of crashes

Margin trading allows an investor to leverage their trading position by borrowing money. For example, borrowing dolla will allow one to buy Bitcoin, thus increasing their exposure. Although there's an interest rate involved with borrowing, the trader expects BTC's price appreciation to compensate for it.

Whenever there's excessive demand for the dollar lending rate, it is usually an indicator that the market is becoming reckless.

Daily U.S. dollar lending rate (above) and Bitcoin price in USD (below). Source: Bitfinex

The above data shows that such an event happened four times in 2021, and the last one occurred on April 13, one day before the $65,800 all-time high for Bitcoin. For example, reaching a 0.16% daily rate is equivalent to a 5% monthly fee, which is costly even for the most optimistic investors.

Traders should keep in mind that markets can remain irrational longer than any investor can remain solvent. This means that irrationality can prevail for long periods, including altcoin euphoria and the excessive use of leverage by buyers.

Whenever multiple indicators point to an overheating market, traders should always consider reducing their positions. Going forward, the altcoin futures market share and the Bitfinex dollar lending rate should be carefully monitored when searching for market tops.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Crypto Analyst Predicts Incoming Bitcoin Parabolic Rally, Says BTC at Point Where Things Get Exciting

Ark Invest CEO Reaffirms $500K BTC Price Prediction, Says Bitcoin Is in ‘Capitulation Phase’

Ark Invest CEO Reaffirms 0K BTC Price Prediction, Says Bitcoin Is in ‘Capitulation Phase’The CEO of Ark Investment Management (Ark Invest), Cathie Wood, still predicts that the price of bitcoin will be $500K. She says that all indicators “are all suggesting that we are in a capitulation phase, which is a really great time to buy, no matter what the asset is.” Ark Sees Bitcoin Reaching $500K Ark […]

Crypto Analyst Predicts Incoming Bitcoin Parabolic Rally, Says BTC at Point Where Things Get Exciting