Blockchain-based private loans hit $582M, doubling from last year

December 18, 2023 Coin Telegraph

US Fed 2024 rate cut could prove perfect catalyst for BTC halving

December 11, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin bulls fight to hold $34K as CME BTC open interest surpasses 100K

October 24, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin bulls fight to hold K as CME BTC open interest surpasses 100K

A surge in CME BTC volumes and open interest highlight institutional investors' growing interest in Bitcoin. Will it be enough to keep the price in the current range?

Bitcoin (BTC) price currently battles to hold the $34,000 level after a stellar rally and short squeeze saw its price push above $35,000 on Oct. 23.

In an Oct. 24 market update, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards noted that after 7 months of consolidation, Bitcoin’s upward move melted the $32,000 resistance “like butter” and he expects that the upcoming monthly resistance is unlikely to be a hurdle.

Edwards said:

“It would make sense to see either a rapid continuation to mid-range ($43K) or short-term consolidation between support resistance at $32-$35K before continuation.”

As Cointelegraph mentioned in an earlier price update,

“Successive daily closes above the $31,700 level would be notable, as daily or weekly higher high candles above this level puts the price above a key pivot point and enters territory not seen since May 2022.”

Regarding the catalysts for this week’s price move, Edwards agrees that the recent fervor over what looks to be a sooner-than-later SEC approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF is contributing to the rally, but he also cites a handful of other near-term factors.

*Bitcoin price catalysts. Source: Capriole Investments*

LayerTwo Labs founder Paul Sztorc concurred, saying, “I think we’re seeing meaningful inklings of a broader decoupling of Bitcoin from equities, and this divergence of sorts has taken a lot of market participants by surprise”

Potential concerns related to “foreign conflict and rising macroeconomic uncertainty, expectations among traders had been focused on a forthcoming dip that ultimately didn’t materialize.”But Sztorc explained that during the U.S. regional banking crisis the market underwent “a similar divergence” which resulted in “Bitcoin outperforming then as well.”

Sztorc believes that the bulk of the recent divergent price action is “a lot of traders and investors are now accumulating ahead of that event.”

“I also think there are expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely have to start easing monetary policy soon because of the issue of rapidly rising yields. More specifically, traders are probably anticipating this easing by way of the Fed having to revert to some form of yield-curve control, the consequences of which tends to be monetary debasement.”

CME Bitcoin open interest surpasses 100,000 BTC

Further proof that institutional investors are warming up to Bitcoin and the idea that a spot BTC ETF will be approved comes from the CME where BTC open interest hit a new record above 100,000 BTC. Beyond the bare price speculation, the takeaway here is that if institutional investors are accumulating spot Bitcoin, they then need to hedge this position, hence the surge in volumes and open interest seen at CME and other places.

CME BTC futures OI has breached 100k BTC for the first time ever.

While offshore perp OI shrank by 26,735 BTC yesterday, CME's OI grew by 4,380 BTC. pic.twitter.com/kjKBRYCoSX
— Vetle Lunde (@VetleLunde) October 24, 2023

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin stash is back in profit with BTC price above $30K

October 23, 2023 Coin Telegraph

<div>MicroStrategy's Bitcoin stash is back in profit with BTC price above K</div>

bitcoin etf

The Michael Saylor-led software firm has made $132 million in unrealized profits from its Bitcoin bet.

MicroStrategy's Bitcoin (BTC) holdings have turned profitable for the first time since July this year as the BTC price has broken through above $30,000.

MicroStrategy up $132M in paper profits

As of Oct. 23, MicroStrategy held 158,245 BTC worth $4.847 billion, up about $132 million from the original amount invested — at an average rate of 29,870 per BTC. In other words, the firm is now up at least $130 per coin.

*MicroStrategy Bitcoin holdings as of Oct. 23. Source: BlockchainCenter.Net*

MicroStrategy started buying Bitcoin in 2020. The firm ramped up purchases in 2023 as BTC's price recovered from extreme losses caused by the Federal Reserve's rate hike policy and high-profile crypto bankruptcies and implosions.

In September 2023, MicroStrategy acquired 5,444 BTC by raising an equivalent amount of capital, mirroring the approach that saw the firm buying approximately 12,333 Bitcoin by raising funds earlier this year.

Michael Saylor, the co-founder and chairman of MicroStrategy, shared data showing Bitcoin's outperformance versus traditional assets since the company adopted its cryptocurrency-buying strategy in August 2020.

*Bitcoin vs. S&P 500, Nasdaq, Gold, Silver, and Bond returns since August 2020. Source: Michael Saylor/X*

Will Bitcoin price rise further into 2024?

Since May 2022, Bitcoin has failed to establish a clear bullish momentum after crossing $30,000. This scenario may repeat in the coming weeks. This, in turn, risks pushing MicroStrategy's BTC investment below its average buying price once again.

BTC/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

More downside cues come from Bitcoin's daily relative strength index (RSI), now at its most overbought levels since January 2023. As a rule of technical analysis, an overbought RSI (above 70) could prompt BTC price to drop or consolidate sideways.

A correction scenario will see Bitcoin's price head toward its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave) near $27,720 in November, down about 10% from current levels.

Conversely, maintaining and confirming $30,000 as the new support level will open the door toward the next big resistance area at $32,000 — a level not seen since May 2022.

From a fundamental perspective, a potential Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval in the U.S. serves as a strong bullish backdrop, according to CryptoQuant. It notes that the approval of a Bitcoin ETF can boost the Bitcoin market's net capitalization by $155 billion.

In turn, the price of each Bitcoin would hit $50,000-73,000 in 2024, which would certainly become a boon for MicroStrategy, though the firm says it will stay on its BTC course even if the Bitcoin ETF get the green light.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Macro factors to spark next crypto bull market in Q2 2024, Real Vision’s Raoul Pal says

October 5, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin Halving

Macro factors will play a dominant role in sparking the next crypto bull market, which should start in Q2 2024, according to Raoul Pal.

The next crypto bull market is likely to kick off in Q2 2024, when the Bitcoin (BTC) halving is set to take place, says macro investor and Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal.

He is convinced that despite the hype surrounding the halving, macro factors will play the leading role in sparking the next uptrend.

According to Pal, the Bitcoin halving cycle coincides with the macro cycle, which means every halving so far has taken place in a similar macroeconomic environment: monetary expansion and low interest rates.

“Macro is actually the dominant factor, and the halving is a false narrative, but it doesn’t matter because it still works,” Pal said in an interview with Cointelegraph.

Among the main catalysts favoring crypto next year are central banks cutting interest rates and potential fiscal stimulus that could precede the United States presidential election.

Regarding price targets, Pal wants to avoid making predictions given that “you get beat over the head by people” for not getting them right.

Still, looking at past performance, Bitcoin could double or triple its latest all-time highs, Pal believes.

To learn more about how to prepare for the next crypto bull market, check out the full interview with Pal, and don’t forget to subscribe to Cointelegraph’s YouTube channel !

DeFi protocol Voltz launches SOFR swaps on Avalanche

May 24, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Avalanche

Investors can now hedge against interest-rate risk in a DeFi environment by trading Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) swaps.

Decentralized finance protocol Voltz now allows Avalanche users to trade interest rate swaps of the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), a benchmark dollar rate used throughout the global economy.

The new feature allows investors to hedge their exposure to interest rate changes and speculators to bet on whether the rate will go up or down, according to a May 24 announcement from Voltz seen by Cointelegraph.

SOFR is the interest rate on overnight loans paid by institutions when they use United States Treasury bonds as collateral. It was created to replace the older London Interbank Lending Rate (LIBOR). Because loans secured by Treasury bonds are considered very low risk, SOFR is often used as a benchmark to calculate other rates. SOFR is heavily influenced by the Federal Funds Rate set by the Federal Reserve.

In traditional finance, companies have used interest rate swaps based on SOFR for years to help protect themselves against rate fluctuations. For example, a company that wanted to borrow could use these products to protect itself against Fed rate hikes.

The Voltz feature makes this traditional finance product available on the Avalanche network, potentially opening its use case to a wider group of investors.

Simon Jones, CEO and co-founder of Voltz Labs, said that the new feature would help level the playing field between retail investors and large institutions.

“Everyone is exposed to what the Fed decides to do [but] only a handful of institutions have access to interest rate swap markets that allow them to hedge that exposure, until now,” he said. In his view, the launch of the Voltz protocol makes “traditional financial markets accessible on DeFi rails.”

Traditional financial products have been making their way into DeFi slowly but surely. Securities broker-dealer INX launched shares of Greenbriar Capital via Ethereum on April 3 and developed a compliance-friendly wallet for institutions to go along with it. On April 27, Neobank released a Soulbound token protocol to simplify the Know Your Customer process for DeFi. Neobank hopes the protocol will enable banks to integrate more with the growing Web3 ecosystem.

Bitcoin price risk? US debt deal to trigger $1T liquidity crunch, analyst warns

May 19, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

Bitcoin price could drop to $20,000 in Q3 amid mounting worries about a potential cash liquidity crisis led by the U.S. Treasury Department.

Bitcoin (BTC) stares at potential losses heading into the third-quarter of 2023 after U.S. lawmakers will likely reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling.

A $1 trillion liquidity hole ahead

Raising the debt ceiling means the U.S. Treasury could issue new bonds to raise cash to meet its previous obligations.

As a result, the cash pile at the Treasury General Account could increase from $95 billion in May to $550 billion by June and to $600 billion in the three months afterward, according to the department's recent estimates.

*U.S. debt limit increases over the years. Source: Bloomberg*

Ari Bergmann, the founder of risk management firm Penso Advisors, estimates that the Treasury will cross $1 trillion by the end of Q3, 2023.

“My bigger concern is that when the debt-limit gets resolved — and I think it will — you are going to have a very, very deep and sudden drain of liquidity,” said Bergmann, adding:

“This is not something that’s very obvious, but it’s something that’s very real. And we’ve seen before that such a drop in liquidity really does negatively affect risk markets, such as equities and credit.”

In other words, the cash available to buy riskier assets like stocks, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will all likely experience downward price pressure at some point after the debt ceiling is raised.

Bloomberg adds:

Estimated at well over $1 trillion by the end of the third quarter, the supply burst would quickly drain liquidity from the banking sector, raise short-term funding rates and tighten the screws on the US economy just as it’s on the cusp of recession. By Bank of America Corp.’s estimate it would have the same economic impact as a quarter-point interest-rate hike.

Will Bitcoin price remain rangebound?

Such macroeconomic hurdles could prevent Bitcoin from reclaiming its yearly highs of over $30,000 in the coming months, says independent market analyst Income Sharks.

"We most likely range between 20k to 30k and even get an altseason," the analyst noted, adding:

"New money isn't coming in; it's all just rotating [...] Unless we get a new narrative or Stocks to find a way to rally, it's looking more likely that the U.S. elections in 2024 will be the next big catalyst.

BTC price chart technicals meanwhile show BTC/USD consolidating below its 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA; the red wave), near $27,650.

Failure to decisively breakout above this important resistance area will increase the chances of a pullback.

Traders should then watch for a possible correction toward the 200-day EMA near $25,000 — the next major support area, particularly if the Fed hikes by 25 basis points in June.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Russian Banks Set for Record Profits This Year, Central Bank, Rating Agency Say

May 3, 2023 Bitcoin.com

US GDP misses goal as Bitcoin price seeks to erase ‘ultra nasty’ 7% dip

April 27, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitcoin

A brisk slowdown in GDP fails to offer any direction for crypto markets, with Bitcoin slowly claws back lost ground below $30,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) stuck to $29,000 at the April 27 Wall Street open as United States GDP growth missed expectations.

*BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView*

U.S. GDP figures reveal surprise slowdown

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD once again stagnant after flash volatility the day prior.

The largest cryptocurrency had liquidated over $300 million in long and short positions after a snap correction over claims that Mt. Gox and U.S. government bitcoins had left their wallets.

A subsequent rebound rescued some of the losses, but $30,000 remained out of reach as macro data failed to offer a suitable catalyst.

This came in the form of GDP growth, which at 1.1% fell far short of predictions.

US economy is losing steam: The US GDP grew 1.1% in Q1 2023 ann, slower than the expected 1.9% & slower than previous quarter (2.6%). The main drag came from significantly lower inventory accumulation, while private consumption remained strong. pic.twitter.com/ezpuHeJuNC
— Holger Zschaepitz (@Schuldensuehner) April 27, 2023

“Growth expectations are falling fast,” financial commentator Tedtalksmacro wrote in part of Twitter follow-up.

Gold bug Peter Schiff, chief economist and global strategist at Europac, predicted that inflation would endure at the hands of the Federal Reserve, which next week is due to decide on the next changes in interest rates.

“Today's 1.1% Q1 #GDP growth confirms the economy is getting weaker as inflation is getting stronger,” he summarized.

“The Fed has already lost its war against inflation. Inflation won and the U.S. economy lost. The Fed's next move will be to 'rescue' the economy by creating even more inflation.”

Market expectations for a 0.25% rate hike in May remained unchanged versus the start of the week as a result of the GDP data, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, with the odds remaining at 85%.

*Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group*

Bitcoin price recovers from "ultra nasty correction"

Turning to Bitcoin, traders’ BTC price targets for the short term were decidedly conservative.

Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, highlighted upside and downside levels close to spot price.

“Ultra nasty correction on Bitcoin, causing a chain reaction on altcoins too,” he told Twitter followers.

“Levels are quite clear, as Bitcoin is still at $29,000. Needs to hold $28,200 for potential longs. Breaking and flipping $29,200 is continuation towards the highs.”

*BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/Twitter*

Daan Crypto Trades meanwhile noted that BTC/USD had practically come full circle in 24 hours, with leverage flushed from the system.

“Yesterday we saw some massive squeezes towards both sides, completely flushing out all the high leverage,” he commented alongside an explanatory chart.

“Since then, price is about where it was before the first short squeeze but open interest has not come close to recovering. Low leverage currently. Slight spot premium.”

*BTC/USDT exchange data. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/ Twitter*

Magazine: Shirtless shitposting and hunting SBF on the meme streets: Gabriel Haines, Hall of Flame

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

‘Not the Right Time to Stop’ Rate Hikes, ECB Chief Economist Says

April 27, 2023 Bitcoin.com

interest rate

CME Bitcoin open interest surpasses 100,000 BTC

MicroStrategy up $132M in paper profits

Will Bitcoin price rise further into 2024?

A $1 trillion liquidity hole ahead

Will Bitcoin price remain rangebound?

U.S. GDP figures reveal surprise slowdown

Bitcoin price recovers from "ultra nasty correction"

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