Massive Uptick in Exchange Volumes Could Suggest Growing Institutional Demand Ahead of ETF Approval: Glassnode

December 8, 2023 The Daily Hodl

Bloomberg Analyst Says SEC Lining Up To Potentially Approve All Spot Bitcoin ETF Applications in January

November 30, 2023 The Daily Hodl

Grayscale ETH futures ETF a ‘trojan horse’ for spot Ethereum ETF: Analyst

November 16, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bloomberg

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart thinks Grayscale’s Ether futures ETF application is just a ploy to corner the SEC to approve its spot Ether ETF.

Grayscale Investments is using its Ether (ETH) futures exchange-traded fund (ETF) application as a “trojan horse” to corner the United States Securities and Exchange Commission into approving its spot Ether ETF, says Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.

Seyffart said in a Nov. 15 X (Twitter) post following the SEC delaying Grayscale’s ETH futures ETF bid that he believes if the SEC approves Grayscale’s application, then it would enable Grayscale to argue for the approval of its spot Ether ETF application.

If the SEC denies Grayscale’s bid, the asset manager could argue the SEC is treating Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether futures ETFs differently by allowing one under the Securities Act of 1933 but not the other.

“Watch [the SEC] try to either approve and argue why this is different from spot. Or Deny and argue why 1933 act products are meaningfully different from 1940 act products. Both are bad for SEC [in my opinion]. Genius move.”

Grayscale’s Ether futures ETF bid was submitted via a form 19b-4 — which exchanges file to inform the SEC of a security-based swap request. Seyffart said none of the 40 or so approved Ether ETF products went through the 19b-4 approval process.

Seyffart was initially unsure why Grayscale filed its Ether futures ETF via a 19b-4. He now believes Grayscale is playing “chess” with the SEC by using the Ether Futures ETF as a “trojan horse” to obtain a 19b-4 order from the regulator to corner them into a lose-lose situation.

I was initially unsure why they would even file for this. But my thoughts have evolved over the last few weeks and they are basically this:
Grayscale is playing Chess, not checkers here. They're likely hoping to force the SEC into issuing a 19b-4 decision on an ETH futures ETF.…
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 15, 2023

Seyffart and Scott Johnsson, General President at Van Buren Capital General, agreed Grayscale wouldn’t launch the Ether futures ETF.

“Doubtful this product ever trades, but useful as a vessel to get spot ETH over the finish line,” Johnsson said.

Seyffart’s comments come as the SEC delayed its decision on Grayscale’s Ether futures ETF on Nov. 15 — two days earlier than its Nov. 17 deadline. Seyffart said he wasn’t surprised by the delay.

Hashdex’s application to convert its Bitcoin futures exchange-traded fund (ETF) into a spot product was also put on hold by the securities regulator on Nov. 15.

BlackRock shared a similar sentiment to Seyffart last week, arguing that the SEC doesn't have a legitimate reason to treat cryptocurrency spot and futures ETF applications differently.

Magazine: Bitcoin ETF optimist and Worldcoin skeptic Gracy Chen: Hall of Flame

XRP jumps then dumps on faked BlackRock XRP trust filing

November 14, 2023 Coin Telegraph

blackrock

XRP’s price surge was short-lived and has almost returned to its original price.

A BlackRock filing suggesting the asset manager was creating an XRP (XRP) exchange-traded product caused a 12% spike in XRP, which it quickly lost after the filing was confirmed as fake.

The saga lasted an hour late on Nov. 14 as X (Twitter) users picked up on a Delaware filing showing BlackRock filed to register the “iShares XRP Trust” — a precursor to launching an exchange-traded fund (ETF).

XRP gained 12%, spiking to $0.73 within 30 minutes of the news of the filing. However, it lost all its gains in half an hour after it was confirmed a fake by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, who spoke with BlackRock.

*XRP's price spike Source: Cointelegraph Markets Pro*

Balchunas speculated someone listed the XRP trust on the Delaware list of corporations website by impersonating BlackRock managing director Daniel Schwieger.

This is false! Confirmed by BlackRock by me. Some whacko must have added using BlackRock executive name etc. Cmon man. pic.twitter.com/cDpnycYwjQ
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) November 13, 2023

Bitcoin Magazine analyst Dylan LeClair was one of the first to initially break the news. Balchunas and The Block also shared news of the listing on X in now-deleted pos.

BlackRock signaled its intention to expand beyond Bitcoin with its ETF aspirations after the firm filed for a spot Ether ETF on Nov. 9.

In light of the faked listing, Seyffart iterated that the spot Ether ETF is real as it was officially confirmed via a 19b-4 submission by Nasdaq to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Lot of people now asking if the Ethereum trust filing was real after seeing the XRP trust was fake.

YES. The ishares #Ethereum trust filing is real and was confirmed via 19b-4 filing on Thursday. Only the XRP trust filing was fake. https://t.co/Lqhj8p91NO
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 13, 2023

Magazine: Crypto regulation: Does SEC Chair Gary Gensler have the final say?

BlackRock’s spot Ethereum ETF plan is confirmed after Nasdaq filing

November 9, 2023 Coin Telegraph

19b-4 Form

Earlier in the day, BlackRock registered corporate entity “iShares Ethereum Trust” in Delaware, the first hint that a filing for a spot Ethereum ETF filing was imminent.

Blackrock’s plans for a spot Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) has now been confirmed, per a 19b-4 form filing submitted to the United States Securities and Exhange Commission on Nov. 9.

Nasdaq filed the 19b-4 form to securities regulator on behalf of the $9 trillion asset management firm for a proposed ETF called the "iShares Ethereum Trust."

The move signals BlackRock’s intention to expand beyond Bitcoin with its ETF aspirations.

*NASDAQ's 19b-4 filing to the SEC for BlackRock's iShares Ethereum Trust. Source: NASDAQ*

Earlier on Nov. 9, it emerged that BlackRock registered corporate entity iShares Ethereum Trust in Delaware, the first hint that a spot Ethereum ETF filing could be imminent.

UPDATE: BlackRock #Ethereum ETF confirmed. They just submitted a 19b-4 filing with Nasdaq pic.twitter.com/pLhuhhK7jo
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 9, 2023

BlackRock and other financial firms have expressed interest in cryptocurrency-backed ETFs over the last few months.

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart noted that there are at least five firms in the running to win the Securities and Exchange Commission’s approval for a spot Ethereum ETF.

Among them are VanEck, ARK 21Shares, Invesco, Grayscale and Hashdex.

There are 5 other live spot Eth filings that i'm aware of:@vaneck_us @ARKInvest/ @21Shares @hashdex @InvescoUS/ @galaxyhq
andddd @Grayscale's filing to convert $ETHE.

In no particular order.
— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) November 9, 2023

Ether (ETH) spiked 8.9% to $2080 on the news that BlackRock is moving forward its plans for an iShares Ethereum Trust and is up 10.1% over the last 24 hours, according to CoinGecko.

*ETH’s change in price over the last 24 hours. Source: CoinGecko*

The price surge has helped ETH claw back some market dominance against Bitcoin (BTC), which has outperformed ETH in recent months.

ETH’s market dominance now sits at 17%, up 1.3% percentage points prior to the news.

Magazine: Bitcoin ETF: Wall Street’s Path to Crypto

Grayscale GBTC discount falls to 16% as markets bet on Bitcoin ETF approval

October 16, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Coin Telegraph

Some analysts say GBTC’s discount is narrowing because investors are pricing in the SEC’s approval on several pending spot Bitcoin ETF applications.

Grayscale’s Bitcoin investment vehicle, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) is trading at its lowest discount in nearly two years, as spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to inch toward potential approval in the United States.

The latest data from YCharts shows GBTC’s discount to Bitcoin net asset value (NAV) has narrowed to 15.87% as of Oct. 13.

Discount to net asset value (NAV) is a percentage that measures the amount that a mutual fund or ETF is trading below its net asset value. The metric is used to track how far away a security is trading away from its true value.

Data shows that GBTC’s discount began to narrow when BlackRock and several other financial institutions filed spot Bitcoin ETF applications in mid-June, where the discount fell from 44% on June 15 to 26.7% by July 5. Since then, the figure has continued to narrow.

*GBTC’s Discount to NAV chart over the last 12 months. Source: YCharts*

The last time GBTC’s discount was at a similar level was in early December 2021 — only a month after BTC hit its all-time high price of $69,000 on Nov. 10, according to CoinGecko.

Bitcoin advocate Oliver Velez believes the market is pricing in spot Bitcoin ETF approval by year's end.

Other analysts, such as cryptocurrency investor Lyle Pratt believe GBTC’s discount will continue to “evaporate” over the next week or two as spot Bitcoin ETFs near approval.

THE GBTC DISCOUNT HAS NARROWED TO 16% AS THE MARKET BETS ON A BITCOIN SPOT ETF APPROVAL.

Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust, commonly known as GBTC, has experienced notable changes in its market dynamics. At the start of this year, GBTC was trading at a significant discount of 48.31%… pic.twitter.com/2nWLmvnewb
— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) October 13, 2023

Reports emerged that the SEC wouldn’t appeal the Grayscale decision on Oct. 13, leading to Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart referring to spot Bitcoin ETF approvals as a “done deal” in an Oct. 13 post.

On Oct. 15, Grayscale reportedly delivered a statement noting that the SEC’s 45-day period to seek a rehearing had passed, meaning the court would issue its “final mandate” within seven calendar days.

"The Grayscale team remains operationally ready to convert GBTC to an ETF upon the SEC’s approval, and we look forward to sharing more information as soon as practicable," the company reportedly said.

NEW: Statement from @Grayscale on the @SECGov’s decision to not seek a rehearing:

“The Federal Rules of Appellate Procedure’s 45-day period to seek rehearing has now passed. The Court will now issue its final mandate within seven calendar days. The Grayscale team remains…
— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) October 15, 2023

Cointelegraph reached out to Grayscale for comment but did not receive an immediate response.

Magazine: How to protect your crypto in a volatile market — Bitcoin OGs and experts weigh in

Flood of Ethereum Futures Exchange-Traded Funds Could Launch on Monday, According to Bloomberg ETF Analyst

September 30, 2023 The Daily Hodl

Ether the Ether: VanEck releases two ETF ads ahead of possible Monday launch

September 29, 2023 Coin Telegraph

ARK 21Shares

Once Ethereum futures ETF and spot Bitcoin ETF applications get approved, there will be a marketing war like we've never seen says, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

Investment manager VanEck has fired up the marketing engine for its “upcoming” Ethereum futures exchange-traded fund (ETF), which some analysts expect could be launched as early as Oct. 2.

On Sept. 28, VanEck released the two “Enter the Ether” themed TV commercials, revealing that its Ethereum Strategy ETF — tickered EFUT — is “coming soon.”

AI, AI, Uh Oh! Follow for updates on how to Enter the Ether. pic.twitter.com/wM69nVtbWC
— VanEck (@vaneck_us) September 28, 2023

The commercials came on the same day VanEck published a press statement about its upcoming EFUT, stating it will be listed on the Chicago Board Options Exchange and be managed by Greg Krezner, VanEck’s Head of Active Trading.

Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart believe the TV ads could hint that Ethereum futures ETFs are “happening sooner than expected.”

Seyffart expects VanEck’s new ETF to launch on Monday despite a Sept. 29 document stating it won’t take effect for another 60 days. “Our understanding is that the SEC is accelerating approvals for these things,” he said.

Quick correction: they actually won't be effective until Friday. Still, same result: Monday launch.
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) September 28, 2023

Enter the Ether

The first of VanEck’s “Enter the Ether” advertisements is a rather short and quirky 15-second video featuring five actors looking at the camera with a deadpan expression and strange alien-sounding music in the background.

“Ethereum. Now in an ETF form. Coming soon,” says an actor.

“Oh and HODL or Fork Off,” says another actor, before the “Enter the Ether” message appears and the ad ends.

The second ad appears more straightforward, with a 30-second spot suggesting that a “shift” is coming soon and that Ethereum’s gravitational pull “will draw everyone in.”

When you’re ready, ENTER THE ETHER. The VanEck Ethereum Strategy ETF ($EFUT) is coming soon. Read our press release: https://t.co/4QPOVd5nB2 pic.twitter.com/vSF3HzMuvC
— VanEck (@vaneck_us) September 28, 2023

Balchunas expects more marketing efforts from ETF issuers as ETFs get approved, particularly when spot Bitcoin ETFs get the greenlight.

“It will be a marketing war like we've never seen since they all do same thing and launch on same day. Unprecedented.”

Meanwhile, financial services firm Valkyrie told Cointelegraph that it will also soon begin offering exposure to Ether through its existing Bitcoin Strategy ETF — making it one of the first firms to do so amid several pending applications with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

On Sept. 28, Seyffart said in an X post that it was “looking like the SEC is gonna let a bunch of Ethereum futures ETFs go next week potentially,” spurred by a potentially imminent U.S. government shutdown.

There are 15 Ether futures ETFs from nine issuers vying to launch.

Magazine: How to protect your crypto in a volatile market — Bitcoin OGs and experts weigh in

U.S. SEC Punts on Bitcoin (BTC) Spot Exchange-Traded Fund Approvals, Delays Decisions Until October

September 2, 2023 The Daily Hodl

Bitcoin ETFs have 75% chance of approval this year: Bloomberg analysts

August 31, 2023 Coin Telegraph

Bitwise

Bloomberg ETF analysts raised their odds for a spot Bitcoin ETF approval after the recent Grayscale victory against the SEC.

Bloomberg analysts have raised the probability for an approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the end of 2023, following a recent Grayscale victory against the federal securities regulator.

In a Aug. 30 post on X (Twitter), Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said they have raised the chances to 75% from an earlier 65% — due to the unanimity and decisiveness at which the United States Court of Appeals Circuit reached its decision in the recent case.

“The judges unanimously repudiated the SEC’s arguments, and the agency will struggle to justify further denials as it faces deadlines,” Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Elliot Stein added in a separate Aug. 30 note.

NEW: @JSeyff & I are upping our odds to 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this yr (95% by end of '24). While we factored Grayscale win into our prev 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations and leaves SEC w "very little wiggle room" via @NYCStein pic.twitter.com/IyEGmWjuHa
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 30, 2023

In his own post on X, Seyffart added that spot Bitcoin ETF approvals will likely be a “done deal” by Q4 2024, estimating the approval odds to have now skyrocketed to 95% by then.

Balchunas added that given the recent legal and public relations loss, a denial by the SEC will be “politically untennable.”

Beyond the legal loss, there is also the PR loss (which matters bc it sets narratives, changes minds). And this got covered far and wide in mainstream media incl NYT, WSJ, CNN, AP, ABC & on and on. We think the legal and PR loss will combine to make denial politically untenable. pic.twitter.com/Uarh5CszXC
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 30, 2023

Over the next five days, seven Bitcoin spot ETF applications are due for a “first deadline” decision by the SEC, including Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdomtree and Valkyrie.

Balchunas said he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the SEC delays these upcoming Bitcoin spot ETF applications.

But the most likely outcome will be that we unexpectedly wake up to the SEC giving in and approving the Bitcoin spot ETFs in one hit, he said.

Magazine: Hall of Flame: Wolf Of All Streets worries about a world where Bitcoin hits $1M

James Seyffart

Enter the Ether

Share this video